Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 8, 2008

2012 SPECULATION? ALREADY?.... As far as I can tell, there was very little positioning among Republicans for the next presidential race for about 48 hours after Barack Obama became the president-elect. But with only 1,460 or so shopping days until Election Day 2012, that apparently didn't last long.

Mitt Romney is off on a Caribbean cruise with influential conservative leaders. Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are stepping up to help Sen. Saxby Chambliss' runoff campaign in Georgia. Huckabee is poised to kick off a national book tour ... in Iowa.

And then there's Bob Novak, fresh off his bizarre argument that Obama lacks a mandate, promoting his new favorite as the Republicans' future leader.

In serious conversations among Republicans since their election debacle Tuesday, what name is mentioned most often as the Moses, or Reagan, who could lead them out of the wilderness before 40 years?

To the consternation of many Republicans, it is none other than Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House.

Gingrich is far from a unanimous or even a consensus choice to run for president in 2012, but there is a strong feeling in Republican ranks that he is the only leader of their party who has shown the skill and energy to attempt a comeback quickly.

Even one of his strongest supporters for president in 2012 admits it is a "very risky choice." But Republicans are in a desperate mood after the fiasco of John McCain's seemingly safe candidacy.

Gingrich, of course, distinguished himself as a giant of the 2008 presidential campaign, arguing that "Saturday Night Live" should be sued for its skits about Palin, and laughing like a school-boy about the notion of improving fuel efficiency with properly inflated tires.

But Gingrich's ridiculousness notwithstanding, it's interesting how Republicans like Novak continue to look backwards. While Democrats chose a new, forward-thinking leader for the 21st century, Novak is arguing that the Republican Party needs to look to a failed former Speaker who made his mark in 1995, before becoming widely loathed by the electorate, and ultimately forced from office by his own Republican colleagues.

The GOP's Moses? I don't think so.

Steve Benen 2:05 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (59)
 
Comments

Who better to succeed a candidate who dumped his firts wife after she became deformed in a car wreck than one who dumped his first wife while she was in the hospital with cancer?

Posted by: Marc in Denver on November 8, 2008 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK

Yay! Now let's hope they stick with Gingrich while the rest of the country surges leftward.

Posted by: Limbaugh's Diabetes on November 8, 2008 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK

actually, this may be the first time I can recall that the next presidential campaign started before the current one was over.

setting aside whether Palin was positioning or not, here is my report. On the weekend before the election, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty visited the McCain HQ in Iowa to rally and thank the phone canvassers.

Now, Minnesota has more electoral votes than Iowa, and was at least as close in the polls. It also had a very tight US Senate race. There surely were plenty of phone banks in the Twin Cities, right there in Gov. Pawlenty's own state, he could have visited.

So why would he be rallying Republican activists in Iowa days before the 2008 elections? Hmmm. . .

Posted by: zeitgeist on November 8, 2008 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK

What? No mention of Jindal? He's the one who worries me the most!

Posted by: The Caped Composer on November 8, 2008 at 2:29 PM | PERMALINK

Moses? They're looking for Moses??? IOW, GOP wants "an illegitimate basket case" as their leader? Shouldn't be too hard to find among their population in this day and age, but good luck to them with their rabid base...

Posted by: exlibra on November 8, 2008 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK

Since the Republicans are the conservatives in politics in the US, it is not unfitting that they should maintain and bring forward from the past all that is the best in our country.
Why anyone would think Gingrich is fit for that role, though, is beyond me.

Posted by: Doug on November 8, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

Jindal vs. Pawlenty vs. Huckabee vs. Palin.

Newt doesn't stand a chance as nominee, and neither does Romney.

Newt could be a powerful voice in organizing a rebooted "Contract with America" message that would supposedly appeal to swing voters and non-whites, which the GOP desperately needs if it is going to win at the national level. He's got the reputation with the MSM as a "thinker," just as McCain was supposedly a maverick.

Posted by: lobbygow on November 8, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

"Republicans like Novak continue to look backwards"

That's the very definition of conservatism: those who can only look backwards.

Posted by: angry young man on November 8, 2008 at 2:46 PM | PERMALINK

Gingrich's name is too similar to Grinch.

Posted by: flubber on November 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

Novak is such a fossil, he probably thinks Gingrich -is- a new, forward-thinking leader for the 21st century.

Posted by: MarkC on November 8, 2008 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

Heh. Don't they realize that they are all Moses now?

I mean, come on...the first Moses listened to a bush and ended up wandering in the desert for 40 years. Which is the journey the GOP now finds itself just beginning, having also listened to a Bush....

Posted by: Jennifer on November 8, 2008 at 2:50 PM | PERMALINK

I almost spewed my coffee all over my keyboard when I read the following article that proclaims that a full ninety one percent of rethugs have a positive view of Palin, and 64% want he to run in 2012:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/07/poll-64-percent-of-republ_n_142284.html

Posted by: YES WE CAN!!! on November 8, 2008 at 2:51 PM | PERMALINK

The highest emotion.

In a winding
road you can
find the light
of a barrier, and
always, when
you try to
forget her, a
lovely emotion
discovers in sips
a delicate candle.

Francesco Sinibaldi

Posted by: Francesco Sinibaldi on November 8, 2008 at 2:55 PM | PERMALINK

Watch Huckabee try to endear himself to the corporate wing of the GOP over the next year or two; his Fox News program should help boost such a repositioning. He's a pretty shrewd politician, and I think many Republicans will come around to thinking his upside is better than Palin's.

Posted by: Vincent on November 8, 2008 at 3:02 PM | PERMALINK

Gingrich. Romney. Palin. Huckabee.

Ye gods please oh please oh please oh please oh please oh please oh please oh PUHLEEEEEEEEZE make it so!

Posted by: Hemlock for Gadflies on November 8, 2008 at 3:15 PM | PERMALINK

So now that Obama has won, it's time to move on to the next election?? Anyone who is into politics just for the game is a sociopath.

Posted by: Michael7843853 on November 8, 2008 at 3:16 PM | PERMALINK

"...it's interesting how Republicans like Novak continue to look backwards"

Isn't that what conservatives always do? Look backwards?

Posted by: Carol on November 8, 2008 at 3:19 PM | PERMALINK

McCain's role model

Who does Joe the Plumber favor in 2012?
I mean WTF?
Fifteen minutes ago Joe was the most important republican voice in the country.
You couldn't click on a website without being blinded by his pate...

Now he is nowhere to be found.
I mean really: Has anybody in the history of Fame ever vanished this fast?


Posted by: koreyel on November 8, 2008 at 3:25 PM | PERMALINK

what name is mentioned most often as the Moses

Uh, Bob? Moses was the guy who led the Jews away from the supply side economic society - you know the one with low unemployment and tremendous accomplishments like the pyramids.

Posted by: Danp on November 8, 2008 at 3:33 PM | PERMALINK

Let's encourage this kind of talk. I'd love to see Obama vs Gingrich in 2012.

Posted by: Anandine on November 8, 2008 at 3:39 PM | PERMALINK

i saw some newt related wankery yesterday...
somebody was claiming that newt lost his way by abandoning the "contract with america" an becoming too moderate.... [lost the link]

probably written by a person too young to remember that newt's party gave him the boot after the failed impeachment caused them to lose seats in an off-year....

Posted by: dj spellchecka on November 8, 2008 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

I nominate Joe the Plumber. At least he knows how to use "the Google" to do research for himself.

Posted by: Winkandanod on November 8, 2008 at 3:52 PM | PERMALINK

Don't forget to add, that Grinch is yet another morally-challenged adulterous creep, who bid his wife adieu when she was lying in a hospital bed IIRC. Following McCain, who took the reins in turn when Ghoulie stumbled, what are they trying to tell us?

Posted by: Neil B on November 8, 2008 at 3:56 PM | PERMALINK

Gingrich has a history of uniting the party. He's smart. Compared to Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindahl, Thune, etc. Gingrich has gravitas.

Mitch Daniels seems like a viable candidate compared to some of the others.

Posted by: Carl Nyberg on November 8, 2008 at 4:15 PM | PERMALINK

Why not just back off and let them consume themselves? After all, we're looking towards at least eight years of thoughtful, fowardlooking, inspiring good government. I fully expect that when we get to 2016, the Republicans will still be having real difficulty putting anyone forward who will be able to run against the success of the Obama administration. - Ted

Posted by: Ted Lehmann on November 8, 2008 at 5:15 PM | PERMALINK

Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are stepping up to help Sen. Saxby Chambliss' runoff campaign in Georgia.

Folks, we need your help here in Georgia. Make calls, donate, contact any relatives you may have in Ga and ask them to vote for Jim Martin. Georgia has been stuck with this moron for far too long. He accused Max Cleland, a Vietnam vet and triple amputee from the war of being "UnAmerican", and a friend of Osama bin Laden. Then the 'enlightened' Georgia electorate (with assistance from Diebold) handed him a Senate seat. Amazing. Give us a hand, if you can.

Posted by: Casper on November 8, 2008 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK

Ted: Exactly. Can't ignore the gollums, that's always a mistake but it's time to build a new America, and world. I think Obama's interest in "Team of Rivals" can be counted on to integrate any conservative ideas/ideals which will contribute to our project; in general that seems to be an effective and politically astute approach. On the other hand, I can't wait for the jiu-jitsu takedown of Repug retards we're gonna see the next four years, followed by the inexorable shift of conservatism towards the center, thus allowing the inevitable (and long overdue) shift in this country towards some version of a thoroughly socialized democracy. Probably lots of flashing colors and booming surround sound on plasma teevees. Oh, well, by any means necessary...

Posted by: Conrad's Ghost on November 8, 2008 at 5:36 PM | PERMALINK

"When asked: What should we do about the
homeless? "Give the park police more ammo.""
(Newton (Tooten) Gingrich)

Some moses.

I think the repugnacans need to forget about POTUS postulations for at least a year. They are going to need to let a new leader emerge, since none of the usual suspects seems electable, let alone worthy of the serious job of being POTUS.

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on November 8, 2008 at 5:55 PM | PERMALINK

The last three presidents were nowhere in sight as candidates four years before the election. I can't tell you how much I hope the Republicans will pick Newt for their next candidate, but I expect that no one can guess at this point who it will be.

Posted by: Green Eagle on November 8, 2008 at 6:15 PM | PERMALINK

My guess is that whoever the GOP runs in 2012 will be massacred in a landslide.

Posted by: Saint Zak on November 8, 2008 at 6:32 PM | PERMALINK

To be rude: do we really know Bob Novak's mental state at the moment? Or if it is him even writing this stuff.

Posted by: Andruw on November 8, 2008 at 6:33 PM | PERMALINK

The only thing Newt Gingrich cares about is Newt Gingrich. Still, I felt he sometimes went out of his way to sabotage McCain. He was an early supporter of Palin last spring (some months after Kristol). He seemed to be playing games during the first bailout vote in the House. He clearly wanted to be considered for the presidency but he has such a small base he didn't bother to try.

But, being without conscience, he's still dangerous. For one thing, I suspect he's capable of reinventing himself much more effectively than McCain could. He was an effective opposition leader in the early nineties and I"m sure he would like to duplicate his 'success.' So I would keep an eye on him. In hard economic times, authoritarian dominators sometimes get the upper hand. I think he would be easy to defeat but I wouldn't take anything for granted.

One other point. The Republican economic elite would prefer people like Romney and Gingrich to people like Huckabee and Palin because the latter two may not go play along with the usual crowd. Visions of a rogue Palin or Huckabee must give the economic conservatives pause; they would probably prefer Romney anyway. But there's a problem. Romney isn't very good at reaching social conservatives and their votes. Gingrich could care less about family values but he knows how to play that game.

Posted by: Craig on November 8, 2008 at 6:49 PM | PERMALINK

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin.

(from the HuffPo article cited above)

How far gone are Republicans?! Incredible!

Posted by: Lucy on November 8, 2008 at 6:53 PM | PERMALINK

I think 100% of Democrats should have a favorable view of Palin, if only because she helped make the McCain campaign the shabbiest in modern American history - and got our guy elected!

Posted by: Chris on November 8, 2008 at 6:57 PM | PERMALINK

Goddamit Drum, the old mistakes were good enough for the Greatest Generation, and I'm not gonna put my faith in leaders who might make new mistakes. The old mistakes worked for me, and I'm stickin' with 'em.

Ahhh! Republicans. Now all we need is an accounting, monetary and legal, for the Bush years. That will finish tem off as a political party. No one wants to come near people that closely involved with the Federal justice system.

And something new, something new and finer and cleaner and straighter, will grow in its place.

Posted by: Mooser on November 8, 2008 at 7:01 PM | PERMALINK

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin.

Hallelujah!!!

Posted by: Econobuzz on November 8, 2008 at 7:02 PM | PERMALINK

If the Obama Administration gets busy right away they will have all of them tied up with suits or awaiting indictments. The military court-martials are their own affair, I guess. But if the law is not applied they will be back, in any ideological guise that works.
And if Obama does not do this, he will get the blame for every one of their crimes and peculations.

I'll give one example: If the Obama administration doesn't keep the neo-cons at bay, his ending of the war, if such there be, will never be worthy of their starting of it, nor the fighting of it. Maybe if they had the possibility of jail time for their part in that starting and fighting, they won't be so eager to condemn Obama's ending.
Or perhaps I am being too harsh, but I don't think so.

Posted by: Mooser on November 8, 2008 at 7:10 PM | PERMALINK

Palin/Plumber '12!!!

Posted by: AJB on November 8, 2008 at 7:13 PM | PERMALINK

I thought Novak was retired. Because, you know, he hit some guy in a hit'n'run? And then, amazingly, a few days later he turned out to have a brain cancer that would perfectly explain the hit and his failure to notice the accident? And he "retired"? And people (by which I mean "the people who are paid to investigate and report about such things")just sort of let the whole sad story slide? And yet now that everybody has "moved on," Novak has somehow unretired? Wow! Maybe all that Opus Dei bullshit actually works!

Posted by: JIMMY RAY BOB on November 8, 2008 at 7:58 PM | PERMALINK

OMFG. Jindal, Palin, Newtie - one of them is going to rise like a titan in 2012. I'm askeered.

JIMMY RAY BOB has a good point, though. Novakula is obviously undead. We're fucked if he ever tries to run. Except, of course, he's an insane asshole.

NOVAK 2012!

Posted by: LAKSJDL:AJK on November 8, 2008 at 8:05 PM | PERMALINK

Newt is PERFECT to play Moses, and it's something that should be encouraged.... I'd gladly let him lead the R's around in the desert for 40 years while the world passes them by.

Posted by: sukabi on November 8, 2008 at 8:39 PM | PERMALINK

The heck with 2012 - how long before the Republicans start planning impeachment proceedings against Obama? I'm thinking late March.

Posted by: N.Wells on November 8, 2008 at 8:42 PM | PERMALINK

Newt as Moses:
http://heylookhear.com/Image/newt-moses

Posted by: Dean Booth on November 8, 2008 at 8:53 PM | PERMALINK

Let's remember that the best Republican candidates have failed to get even a plurality of votes in four of the last 5 presidential elections.

The Republicans can dream about impeachment all they want, but without evidence or a majority in the House of Representatives, that's all it is, a dream.

Posted by: OwnedByTwoCats on November 8, 2008 at 9:04 PM | PERMALINK

Perhaps the Mormans were trying to prove their religious right cred with the Prop 8 manuever in order to help their candidate.

Shouldn't Novak be near death by now? Did he have brain surgery and a miraculous recovery or was that all B.S. to get off on the manslaughter charges? If he's not dying, he needs to go to jail. Seriously, how can anyone believe what he writes since his brain is supposedly impaired. Why does he still have a job?

Posted by: Always Hopeful on November 8, 2008 at 9:16 PM | PERMALINK

"The heck with 2012 - how long before the Republicans start planning impeachment proceedings against Obama? I'm thinking late March." (N.Wells on November 8, 2008 at 8:42 PM)

Nope. Seems like there are ALREADY several sites with several hundred people out there on the Internet that are calling for his impeachment...

Posted by: YES WE CAN!!! on November 8, 2008 at 10:39 PM | PERMALINK

Gingrich. Romney. Palin. Huckabee.

Republicans can't even look to repeaters like Nixon/Reagan anymore because they keep putting up geezers when they're not pushing a Bush.

Quite the dilemma: how can they embrace their old base while building a centrist one? Other than Olympia Snowe, their extremists have helped cause all their moderates to be defeated, marginalizing them further from any shot at the Oval Office.

This time, they used God, guns, gays, terrorists, socialists, taxers, spenders, and racism, their entire arsenal. And by 2012, all they'll have to work with is the promotion of fear.

So count on it: their next candidate will be a foreign policy hawk, above all else. None of those four mentioned today qualifies.

Anyone see a hawkish libertarian in the GOP ranks, like a Goldwater? That's the way I'm keeping my eyes peeled. But not for a year. In September, I'll be looking at their lineup for the 2010 Congressional elections before I even begin to think of that.

Wake me if they find a Latino Goldwater, though.

(And btw Steve, saw you on Rachel Maddow this week; great to see your assets become nationalized!)

Posted by: KevinHayden on November 8, 2008 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

If the Repubs do go with Gringrich in 2012, we can only hope that he picks Michelle Bachmann as his VP choice and promised to make Palin ambassador to Russia, seeing as she wouldn't have that long of a commute.

Posted by: tomeck on November 8, 2008 at 11:20 PM | PERMALINK

The Republicans do seem strangely stuck in yesteryear, when they ruled the world. I guess it's difficult to make the transition from then to now, when the entire path is strewn with the wreckage that they have caused with their incompetence, stupidity, and criminal behavior. If this is how they're going to behave for the next two years, I'd say a filibuster-proof Senate is a good bet in 2010.

Posted by: oh really on November 8, 2008 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK

I guess you didn't notice that Rudy Giuliani has long since had his 2012 campaign website up!

Posted by: boz on November 9, 2008 at 12:13 AM | PERMALINK

Well, I certainly hope that the fogies vetting Gingrich don't get too far.

I think, personally, a Jindal-Palin ticket would be great. Jindal is a Rhodes scholar, highly articulate, a Reaganite conservative, and brings a fresh young perspective (not an old white guy).

The liberal illuminati would pick their teeth with Gingrich - not that I expect them to applaud any Republican candidate. But if I can't take him seriously, I don't see why Democrats should!

Posted by: gippergal on November 9, 2008 at 12:17 AM | PERMALINK

its interesting how Republicans like Novak continue to look backwards.

why would that be interesting a.k.a surprising in anyway - backwards thinking is the very definition of conservatism: looking back to a mythical time - anytime - when life was grand.

Posted by: pluege on November 9, 2008 at 1:41 AM | PERMALINK

They are not the in the least bit intersting any more. The question is who will reform the Republican Party, not what obsolete dullard will be recycled. Until they get their heads around defanging the Christian Taliban, they will continue their descent. Good riddance.

Posted by: Sparko on November 9, 2008 at 6:24 AM | PERMALINK

And gippergal, if Jindal is a Republican in 2008, he is either a dimwit like Palin, or a hypocrite. Take your pick. The shades of gray were ejected from modern Republicanism. There are only snake handlers or snake oil salesmen now.

Posted by: Sparko on November 9, 2008 at 6:29 AM | PERMALINK

Speaking of snake oil, Mr. Gingrich has a new book on how drill^3 will reduce the cost of energy. If past statements are any guide, it is likely to be more uninformed idiocy, but his high profile will doubtless make him visible during the upcoming debates on energy (coincidence that, what?)

Posted by: jhm on November 9, 2008 at 6:59 AM | PERMALINK

Moses? They're looking for Moses??? IOW, GOP wants "an illegitimate basket case" as their leader?

ah, yes, Let the search for the real birth certificate begin!

Posted by: g on November 9, 2008 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Yeah.

You do that. Underestimate Newt.

You've been warned.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on November 9, 2008 at 2:06 PM | PERMALINK

For some excellent circular firing squad type stuff regarding 2012, see this PJM post w/ comments:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/good-news-the-2012-campaign-for-president-is-underway/

Posted by: Hugh on November 9, 2008 at 6:18 PM | PERMALINK

Excuses, excuses from the aggrieved
Most of the reading I've been doing of Republican and Conservative blogs and articles seem pretty lame. There seems to be a lot of denial out there at this point, plus much finger-pointing and blame, and the professionals, like Limbaugh, are training their sights on predicting how bad it's going to be under Obama and a Democratic majority. All this would be pretty laughable, except for the fact that Palin, and I'm not overlooking McCain's participation, gave encouragement to some pretty ugly hostility that could begin to break out, like a wildfire, into some even more uglier actions on the part of those individuals who feel powerless now and look at violence as a solution. I do not like Limbaugh for that reason; he sometimes plays with fire; when you listen to him he sounds aggrieved as well as angry (that's his dirty little secret).

What I would like to hear is some clear analysis, and see some harsh light cast upon what really did occur, so that Republicans and Conservatives can sort it all out. To act otherwise is to be childish and downright stupid. In any sport, like football, for instance, if you don't understand why you lost and what you can do about it next time, you haven't got a chance to win again. Such an analysis requires putting aside the hurt and ego, stepping away from the propaganda and lies commonly used in a campaign, being unemotional about what really occurred. I urge those who can do this to do so. All the rest is scapegoating and/or grousing.

I once worked for a very smart guy who used to say, "It's time to follow, lead or get out of the way." If you love this country, there are too many important things to be done to play the blame-game, grouse or predict dire consequences.

Posted by: OCPatriot on November 10, 2008 at 12:21 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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