November 9, 2008
PICKING FROM THE LIST OF WORTHWHILE GOALS.... Hilzoy noted overnight that Barack Obama's team plans to implement some key and easily-implemented changes almost immediately after taking office. A team of advisers has worked for months to identify key "regulatory and policy changes" Obama could address quickly, and will more on them shortly after the inauguration. The moves, all of which were part of Obama's campaign agenda, include reversing Bush/Cheney policies on climate change, stem cell research, and reproductive rights, most notably the indefensible global gag rule.
No drawn out fights, just important progressive policy improvements, right off the bat. Those looking for encouraging signs of "change" won't have to wait very long.
But these important policy goals are, in some ways, the proverbial low-hanging fruit. What comes next? The extent to which the Obama administration should be ambitious and aggressive, or cautious and deliberate, is the subject of some debate among the president-elect's aides. The New York Times' Peter Baker reports:
During the campaign, Mr. Obama identified many other priorities, like withdrawing from Iraq; talking with Iran; tackling immigration; closing the detention center at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba; and renegotiating trade rules with the country's neighbors.
Mr. Obama's transition advisers studied how past presidents used their first months and concluded that even if various agencies moved forward in many directions, a new chief executive must husband his time, energy and political capital for three dominant priorities at most. Several Obama advisers cited Reagan, who concentrated his early efforts on tax cuts and military spending.
But advisers also worry that putting off sweeping initiatives makes them harder to pass later, when a president's mandate and momentum have faded. They pointed to Mr. Clinton, who delayed his ultimately doomed health care plan while he passed a deficit reduction package and the North American Free Trade Agreement.
And the pent-up demand from Democrats who waited out the Bush administration will be enormous.... Mr. Obama recognizes that. In an interview on CNN days before the election, he explicitly ranked his priorities, starting with an economic recovery package that would include middle-class tax relief. His second priority, he said, would be energy; third, health care; fourth, tax restructuring; and fifth, education.
Using history as a guide, Obama's team concluded new presidents can invest energy in, at most, "three dominant priorities." That sounds about right to me, as do Obama's list of priorities. Trying to do all at once makes it that much more likely that divided attention will produce disappointing results.
Part of the challenge, though, is how and whether the Democratic Congress will follow Obama's lead. As Kevin noted, Dems have hopefully "learned their lesson from 1993 and can put their egos in check enough to actually take some guidance from the guy in the White House."
There's no practical difference between Obama's vision and that of congressional leaders. The trick of it is allowing the president to take the lead in setting the agenda. My sense is Pelosi and Reid will be anxious and cooperate partners. We'll see soon enough.
—Steve Benen 1:10 PM
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I really think that he needs to concentrate on energy and global warming. If we do not address and solve those two issues, really one and the same, then it will really not matter if you have insurance, or a job, or anything else! We should have a massive influx of spending into the whole alternative energy economy similar to the Manhattan Project in World War II. Even though we have a deficit we need to put money into the economy for road and mass transit construction as well as energy. That would put people to work, money into the economy, and fix our infrastructure problems. We can worry about paying it back later. I think that if the lenders see that we are putting the money into our infrastructure rather then the rat hole of Iraq they will continue to lend it to us! That is my 2 cents for what it is worth.
Posted by: mat1492 on November 9, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK
How about just giving Guantanamo Bay back to Cuba after closing the prison? It is obscene that the US occupies Cuba.
Cheers,
Alan Tomlinson
Posted by: Alan Tomlinson on November 9, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK
I will be very disappointed if Obama fails to shut down Guantanamo Bay and give it's detainees proper trials as soon as he takes office.
Not only would it be morally right, it would also have huge symbolic significance as a demonstrable break with the Bush administration.
Posted by: mfw13 on November 9, 2008 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK
Don't forget that some things would be best dealt with in the lame duck, to get stuff with deadlines off the new President (and new Congressional majorities) initial agenda, e.g., partial immigration legislation.
Posted by: anonymous on November 9, 2008 at 1:30 PM | PERMALINK
I think there is a good chance he will get some help from some of the Republicans. Think about it. They had to vote Bush's way. I don't think they had much choice. Now it will benefit them to cooperate.
Posted by: yesican on November 9, 2008 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK
Which is why the pick of Rahm Emmanuel makes all the sense in the world to me. He is there to keep House Democrats focused in on the prize and to bust partisan heads in the Democratic party if need be. He isn't there as CoS to fight Republicans, he is there to keep Democrats in line.
Posted by: Nathan on November 9, 2008 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK
The conflicts are right in the progressive movement, sharp differences which have been papered over.
Each progressive faction would like to deny them, in hopes of getting their particular package passed. So, you end up with little done initially because each of the Obama supporters will fear offending the other.
I watch Pelosi's district in which environmental groups have very diametrically opposed solutions to better efficiency. It will get worse,
Posted by: MattYoung on November 9, 2008 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK
Steve
I would like to share my views with your readers on Obama's election. Ajaz
ONLY IN AMERICA
With Barack Obama's election as President, United States of America has once again taken a great leap forward and regenerated itself as a nation that changes with time and adapts to new conditions. A nation despite all its faults and checkered history is ready to stand up and correct itself again- a sign of a great nation.
Another great moment in history was when Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860. Despite all opposition, he abolished slavery through Emancipation Proclamation and the 13th constitutional amendment. This caused the pro slavery South to rebel, forming the 'Confederate States of America' which led to a bloody civil war. Ultimately, Lincoln and the American people succeeded and that was a historic time when America regenerated itself.
November 4, 2008 was another historic day. Who could have imagined a mere sixty years ago that America where African Americans were not allowed to share the same bench, the same seat on a bus or a drink from the same fountain with their white country men and women, would elect an African American as their President.
Only in America is it possible for any citizen to rise to such heights. Europe steeped in its history of class system and Asia with its dynastic history can only marvel and admire America for its leap forward. No wonder the whole world celebrates Barack Obama's victory, which in fact is America's victory. This is possible ONLY IN AMERICA.
Posted by: Ajaz on November 9, 2008 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK
I agree with mat1492 (first comment). Energy and global warming should be the first and most important priority, and infrastructure necessarily forms one critical component of the project. This is just what the economy needs to create jobs and recover from recession. So it solves most of our problems under one umbrella. We will also become a world leader once again by doing this.
I also think health insurance should come after this. If it is put first it will stall out into a prolonged partisan battle that will probably go nowhere, and Obama will lose all his good will, political capital and momentum.
On the other hand, tackling energy, the environment, infrastructure and the economy as one unified national program will stand a much better chance of success, and Obama will be set to tackle other items on his agenda with the momentum behind him.
I hate to say it, but tax increases on the wealthy should be deferred until the economy shows signs of responding to Obama's agenda. But the middle class cuts should probably proceed.
Posted by: hark on November 9, 2008 at 2:04 PM | PERMALINK
The situation now is a lot different than in 1993. The Democratic congress back then was old, they were imploding under the weight of their own scandals, and not very willing to work with the new president. In the Senate Bob Kerrey was refusing to forgive Clinton for beating him in the primary and knifing him in the back every chance he got. Now we have a newer, younger, more vigorous Senate and Congress who are excited to be back in power. I think that there's a really good chance that some good things will get done.
Posted by: J Bean on November 9, 2008 at 2:08 PM | PERMALINK
mat1492 wrote: "I really think that he needs to concentrate on energy and global warming. If we do not address and solve those two issues, really one and the same, then it will really not matter if you have insurance, or a job, or anything else!"
Absolutely right.
In his public comments, his speeches and interviews and debates, Obama has emphasized investment in "clean energy" -- wind, solar, geothermal and biomass -- as well as energy efficiency. I hope that he will indeed make this the central organizing principle of his administration's entire agenda.
A good start would be to endorse and implement the "Repower America" plan but forward by Al Gore's group, to produce 100 percent of the USA's electricity from clean renewable sources of energy, drastically improve efficiency, create a new generation "smart" nationwide electrical grid, and eliminate oil imports from the Middle East within ten years.
That is the path to reducing global warming emissions as rapidly as mainstream climate science tells us we must, if we are to have any hope of avoiding the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
That is the path to making the USA energy independent, and freeing US foreign policy from the "need" to control the world's dwindling supplies of fossil fuels with military interventions and support of brutal dictatorships in oil-rich countries.
And that is the path to regenerating the US economy, creating millions of good, high-paying jobs that can never be outsourced -- putting millions of people to work insulating and retrofitting buildings, deploying solar electricity and solar heating systems, building wind turbines, upgrading the electrical grid with modern technology, creating new ultra-efficient high-tech appliances, engineering modular pluggable-hybrid electric cars, building high-speed commuter and inter-city rail systems, and on and on.
And even more importantly that is the path to the New Industrial Revolution of the 21st Century, an energy economy that is no longer based on mining and burning scarce, costly, toxic fuel, but on harvesting a limitless supply of abundant, ubiquitous, clean, FREE energy.
Posted by: SecularAnimist on November 9, 2008 at 2:13 PM | PERMALINK
What KILLED Clinton was gays in the military, and "Don't ask, don't tell". He allowed his entire agenda to be totally compromised by this. It did allow gays to remain in the military, but, amazingly, the gay wacks have NEVER understood how much Clinton lost by going to bat for them.
And, now, the gay wacks want "marriage equality" to be an early part of Obama's agenda. This would be a huge mistake. Getting involved with gay issues and spending valuable political capital delivering for 2 % of the electorate would be a huge huge mistake.
Posted by: POed Lib on November 9, 2008 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK
Wait! I thought the first thing on his agenda was to take all our guns away.
Posted by: The Base on November 9, 2008 at 2:18 PM | PERMALINK
I think Obama can work on several issues under the large umbrella of fixing the economy - a) creating green jobs, incentives and infrastructure b) more educational focus on green, clean science, including grants c) banking/securities regulations d) retooling health care initiatives e) retool tax incentives to encourage work and start up investments
Also I think it would be a good idea to declare a Fix-up-America program. Issue special scrip for community projects, ask that people, especially young and retired, earn the scrip by tutoring, night classes, painting or fix up of community properties, etc, and limit the use of scrip to pay for American labor and products. Upon receiving the scrip from the workers, vendors could then redeem it for cash. I think this would be far more effective than the last stimulus package, and it would boost confidence and pride as well.
Posted by: Danp on November 9, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
I detected a certain (and infuriating) satisfaction at Baker's quote from John Tuck:
“The poor man has his hands tied by the economic and financial mess we have right now,” said John Tuck, a former aide to President Ronald Reagan. “I don’t know what his options are. They’re very, very limited.”
We left them a surplus, they not only looted that, but drove us deep into debt to achieve that "hands tied" state that Tuck so smugly notes. This "economic and financial mess" wasn't an unfortunate accident, it was the plan
Now they expect Democrats to, once again, be the grown ups, and defer our needs in order to clean up after the 'Publican frat party. I don't doubt they also expect to be able to swoop back in after we've cleaned up and loot the treasury all over again.
Well, I say f*ck that sh*t. I think Obama should go ahead and run a deficit in the short term. Get some money into the hands of working people, with a jobs program aimed at rebuilding our public infrastructure and building a new, green-energy infrastructure. Then we (the 90% of us who didn't benefit from the last 10 years) will be better situated to handle the belt-tightening that will be necessary in the long term.
(I posted this as a comment in the NYT's Caucus Blog too, but apparently they found my thoughts insufficiently interesting. Either that or the moderator is a really slow reader...)
Posted by: KarenJG on November 9, 2008 at 2:25 PM | PERMALINK
For the love of god, is there no pundit or blogger on the face of the earth who can remember relevant context or history for more than six freaking months?
There is no comparison between now and 1993. Why? Because the Democratic-controlled Congress in 1993 was dominated by a disgusting mix of calcified Democrats and DINO Dixiecrats. They were a contemptible, corrosive bunch of assholes, and deserved the ripping they got in 1994.
Contrast all that with today. While nobody was looking, we elected a NORTHERN president and we have a Congress dominated by a WEST COAST Speaker and a WESTERN Majority Leader. The rank and file of the Democratic party in Congress is flush with new blood and eagerness; the exact opposite of 1993.
The lessons to be learned here are not from 1993, they're from 1994 forward and they come gift-wrapped from the Republican party. Governern. Fix potholes. When one of your own goes bad, take him out on the Mall and execute him. Legislate from the center. Take care of the middle-class.
THESE ARE THE LESSONS TO BE LEARNED.
Jeebus...........
Posted by: The Phantom on November 9, 2008 at 2:35 PM | PERMALINK
When McCain "suspended" his campaign, Obama famously said something about the need for a president to deal with more than one issue at a time. I suspect Obama can and will live up to his own admoniton.
Posted by: Leanderthal on November 9, 2008 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINK
Among the issues Obama can't address by himself (those requiring Congressional action, iow), I would really, really, really like to see him keep his promise about eliminating the tax break for companies that send jobs overseas.
I work for a company that has been offshoring more and more jobs, at the cost not only of American jobs, but of actual productivity. The problems we've had with training offshore workers, problems with production systems that don't get addressed because all the development work has been offshored...you'd think a sane management team would look at these and rethink their course, but I suspect the tax break, in addition to the fact that offshore workers cost less in wages and benefits, keeps them going in this wrong direction.
Yes, it's a selfish motivation to focus on this, but I truly believe that, if the country is going to start reversing the terrible employment situation here, this issue is THE key.
Posted by: Cap'n Phealy on November 9, 2008 at 3:30 PM | PERMALINK
One major difference exists between the House make-up in 2008 and that in 1992: the House Democrats in 1992 didn't know what it was like to be out of power for twelve years. If one considers the leavening the House Democratic caucus has received of totally new members in just the last two elections, an observer can rapidly realize that a goodly portion of that caucus knows what can happen when personal ego gains ascendancy. Those who were in the Congress during the lean years have tasted the whip of the opposition and might not be so keen to chance returning to the minority status again because of factional fracturing.
Posted by: PrahaPartizan on November 9, 2008 at 3:50 PM | PERMALINK
The lowest hanging fruit is electrification: improving the electrical grid (jobs & infrastructure investment!), increasing replacement of hydrocarbon-fueled transport to electrical transport, improving energy conservation, and improving local production of electricity via home solar & wind production and solar and geothermal heating. This also works on global warming and reducing the trade deficit. Also, Obama doesn't really need to concentrate on it. Just go to Al Gore, make him Energy Tzar, offer to back without question whatever he wants to propose for the first $30-50 billion, and ask him to be an ambassador to Congress in spearheading the legislation. Then just concentrate on other stuff until some arm-twisting or pulpit-pounding is needed.
Posted by: N.Wells on November 9, 2008 at 4:05 PM | PERMALINK
You really think that Reid will be cooperative? What incident in his entire career as Senate Majority Leader has led you to believe he has the fortitude to go for victory, instead of letting out a magnificent roar before he lies down and whimpers in defeat?
Posted by: Balakirev on November 9, 2008 at 4:44 PM | PERMALINK
That's a shame. Here I was hoping Reid and Pelosi would be replaced. Reid, by someone who knows how to do political "theatre" and is not so easily compromised by corporate lobbyists.
Pelosi, by someone who cares more for justice and the constitution than political efficiency and is also willing to listen to the people.
Bush uses the "dump truck" tactic of dumping so much crap everywhere that cleaning it up is too overwhelming to have time to deal with "accountability". I guess we're supposed to be satisfied enough by just getting this criminal cabal out of office rather than holding them accountable for their crimes...including mass murder and torture. But I did not see this as a listed priority so it will be just like I imagined..."Let's not be bogged down by the past and instead move forward into the future...(so they got away with it...after all the death destruction, cost and damage...they walk...letting every future president know that they can get away with anything...non sexual of course...and escape accountability completely).
NOT FOR PROFIT non-corporate, no profiteering from our health care. Medicare for all could be expanded within 3mos and hire all the private ins workers to help run the system. Oh yeah.
Posted by: bjobotts on November 9, 2008 at 4:53 PM | PERMALINK
Restructuring the tax system and economic recovery can probably be rolled into one goal.
Frankly, federal intervention in education was ill-advised. Repeal No Child left behind.
Allow states to hold schools and teachers accountable in whatever way their voters decide.
SMALLER government is a theme Democrats can steal from the GOP and properly SHOULD where it can.
Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on November 9, 2008 at 5:57 PM | PERMALINK
bjobotts, @16:53
As unsatisfying as "letting them get away with it" is... and I'm not even sure that they will, in the long run... Revenge *cannot* be the priority; the very first opening salvo of the Obama Administration.
I've seen how that kind of vendetta mentality has been playing out in my erst-while country (Poland) and it's been a mess of almost 20yrs' duration. Politicking goes on 24/7, there's a revolving door of constant elections, replacement, re-elections; suits and counter-suits clog up the courts, money's being wasted on dirt-digging revenge commissions... And very little gets *done* to make life easier for the average citizen.
That's "for the birds" and that's not what Obama ran on.
I'm in agreement with several posters ahead of me (hark and Secular Animist among them). The issues of green energy/global warming, job creation and healthcare are *all* components of broadly understood "economy" and that's how they ought to be packaged and sold. I suspect that Obama knows that, and that his mentioning economy first refers to a short-term "fix", which may even be achieved or, at least, started on, before inauguration, during the forthcoming lame duck session.
After we've gotten a start on those and look to be on a right track, we can take care of other issues. It is a well-known fact that a well-fed and healthy ox will pull a cart farther than a starved or sick one...
Posted by: exlibra on November 9, 2008 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK
Have you seen change.gov? I had no idea there WAS an Office of the President-Elect. Stands to reason, though.
Posted by: steveb on November 9, 2008 at 6:51 PM | PERMALINK
While nobody was looking, we elected a NORTHERN president and we have a Congress dominated by a WEST COAST Speaker and a WESTERN Majority Leader. The rank and file of the Democratic party in Congress is flush with new blood and eagerness; the exact opposite of 1993.
The lessons to be learned here are not from 1993, they're from 1994 forward and they come gift-wrapped from the Republican party. Governern. Fix potholes. When one of your own goes bad, take him out on the Mall and execute him. Legislate from the center. Take care of the middle-class.
THESE ARE THE LESSONS TO BE LEARNED.
Posted by: The Phantom on November 9, 2008
Well said, but there's also one other point. The West comes to us with a lot of environmentalists, young people and libertarian types. We have to somehow incorporate that in our agenda or our recent gains out west could be lost.
Environmentalism, clean cheap energy, education and controlled government spending are big issues with those people.
Immigration is also important, but hasn't really come to the fore yet. It looked like it might last year, but then faded away.
Posted by: MarkH on November 9, 2008 at 6:55 PM | PERMALINK
Pelosi and Reid were more than helpful getting Bush everything he wanted (e.g. FISA, immunity for telecoms). Hopefully they won't grow a spine just in time to oppsose a president from their own party.
Posted by: ChicagoPat on November 9, 2008 at 7:12 PM | PERMALINK
"Yes, it's a selfish motivation to focus on this,"
No, it's not selfish at all. If we're going to get things back on track, we need to stimulate demand from the bottom up, and that has to occur in the form of increased wages. As I noted on the Calculated Risk blog, one-time stimulus checks won't do it - it has to be a sustained and confidence-building increase in the wages of working Americans. Slowing down the off-shoring of American jobs will help keep wages stable.
Posted by: OhNoNotAgain on November 9, 2008 at 7:45 PM | PERMALINK