Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 10, 2008

FRANKEN CONTINUES TO NARROW THE GAP.... It's tough to walk away from obsessive interest in campaign coverage cold turkey, isn't it? Fortunately, we have some fascinating, unresolved Senate races, which are akin to nicotine patches.

With that in mind, what's the latest out of Minnesota? The gap gets narrower all the time.

Al Franken's deficit just keeps on shrinking as the state adjusts the unofficial tally in the U.S. Senate election last week.

Today's latest results show the DFL challenger is now trailing Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by 204 votes. That's down from 221 over the weekend.

As of 12:10 p.m., Coleman has 1,211,560 votes to Franken's 1,211,356.

Whether there will be a full, statewide recount is no longer an issue. State law mandates one for races where the margin is 0.5% or less, and the gap in the Coleman-Franken contest is a little less than 0.01%. Coleman was leaning on Franken to concede and skip this process, but even if he's given up on avoiding a recount.

What's next? The Star Tribune reports that Minnesota counties will present their final tallies today, with the country reports going to county canvassing boards, which will in turn report to Minnesota's secretary of state's office. (The SOS is Mark Ritchie, a liberal Dem, who has vowed a deliberate, above-board, nonpartisan recount. State Republicans have vowed to watch him closely.)

Ritchie will submit the tallies to the state canvassing board on Nov. 18. As Eric Kleefeld noted, both sides are "fully lawyered up and ready to go."

And who's eventually going to win this thing? Time will tell, but while we wait, Nate Silver crunches the numbers and explains what binomial distribution means. (It's more interesting than it sounds.) Long story short: Franken has a pretty good shot at coming out on top.

Steve Benen 2:15 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (19)
 
Comments

Awesome!

Posted by: YES WE CAN on November 10, 2008 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK

This is going to be litigated until hell freezes over. I can just hear the wingnuts crying foul if somehow Dems get to a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and Coleman's loss is what cinched it. Life is going to be miserable if Obama has to kiss Lieberman's ass for that 60th vote

Posted by: steve duncan on November 10, 2008 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, sorry for the off-topic, but--

Did anyone catch Keith Olbermann on "The View" today? I missed it, but heard that Hasselbeck had the audacity to shame Keith for telling the "I can see Russia from my house" joke while commenting on a football game...He felt it had become such a mainstream/cultural joke (thanks to SNL and others) that it aptly applied to the analysis he was giving. Good for you Kieth--I agree.

But here's the thing--What nerve of her--she actually brazenly adorned a custom made tee on The View show only about ten days ago that actually read: "Great AmeriCAIN Hero".

So that's okay and the joke Keith made wasn't?
I don't think so, Miss Ditzhead...

Talk about unprofessional and conflict of interest!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gawd, I hate Hasselbeck. She gets away with aggressively spewing out all kinds of untruths in a real Bill O'Reilly fashion..I can see why she loved Palin so much--they had a lot of Pit-Bull in common.

Go tell her Keith!

Posted by: Keith on "View" T.V. show on November 10, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

I wonder what the odds are of Nate Silver becoming the next Alan Greenspan - in a good way, I mean.

Posted by: Danp on November 10, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

And thinking people give a shit about Hasselbeck's opinion...why? Before the McCain campaign, I'd never heard of either Sarah Palin or Elizabeth Hasselbeck, and now that it's over I really wish both of those dumbasses would shut up and go away.

Posted by: Keori on November 10, 2008 at 2:43 PM | PERMALINK

I'm glad Steve brought attention to the fact that our Secretary of State is a DFLer. This will be a primary determinant of the wingnut reaction to the recount, in either outcome scenario. If Franken is deemed the winner, it's because Mark Ritchie is an evil socialist election-stealing lib'rul thief. And if Coleman wins, then the election is obviously a mandate for the MN GOP because even the evil socialist election-stealing lib'rul thief Mark Ritchie wasn't able to steal it from him.

Posted by: Midwest Product on November 10, 2008 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

While I'm relieved to hear that, despite having a GOP governor, Minnesota has a DFL SOS, I still find it rather disturbing that the job of SOS is a partisan position in the first place. If there's any position which begs to be filled on a professiona, non-partisan basis, it's SOS.

I know that, due to the Federal nature of our system, a change like the above would require 50 separate changes to state laws, but that's an effort well worth making if we want to ensure that elections aren't likely to be stolen as they were in '00 and '04, where the SOS in Florida + Ohio was, in each case, the GOP chairman of GWB's electoral committee.

-Z

Posted by: Zorro on November 10, 2008 at 3:05 PM | PERMALINK

Midwest Product, the other option is that your SOS runs a recount that's above reproach and completely transparent. When Franken wins, we claim victory and say, "Hey you Republican douches, just 'cuz you had some corrupt, painted clown of a SOS in Florida steal an election in 2000 doesn't mean that the Democratic party can't do it right. We're the party of fair and open procedures, and Franken is ours. Nyah, nyah, nyah. Now suck it!"

Or something like that...

Posted by: Everett on November 10, 2008 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINK

If and when Coleman goes down, he's gonna whine like he invented the word. Like many of the GOP responses over the years, it won't have a thing to do with facts or reality.

steve duncan, even if the D's get to 59, it's a fantasy to think that Lieberman will be 60 whether or not he keeps his chairmanship anyway. Which is why it's a risk-free strategy to boot him, call the GOP on their filibuster bluffs and constantly tell the American people that a small band of GOP extremists are thwarting the public will.

Posted by: Jay B. on November 10, 2008 at 3:11 PM | PERMALINK

Joe Lie votes with the dems over 90% of the time. Carrying on about booting him will only ensure that he votes against us more often. I know, I would like to see someone spare me breathing the same air as that clown, but I would rather have his vote 90% of the time than 0%

Posted by: Patrick on November 10, 2008 at 3:36 PM | PERMALINK

Carrying on about booting him will only ensure that he votes against us more often.

Why?

And he really doesn't vote with Democrats 90% of the time.

Posted by: Jay B. on November 10, 2008 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK

Off topic, but Senate-related: 168,785 more people cast votes for President in Georgia than Senator: that's 4.35 of the total vote.
I have two possible explanations: trickery with Diebold machines (unprovable if true), or a large number of Georgia Voters were so turned off by the Senate campaign and wall to wall commercials toward the end, they chose none of the above.
From the ATL Journal-Constitution:

"In North Carolina, the Senate undervote was 1.1 percent of the presidential total. In Oregon it was 3.3 percent, and 2.3 percent in New Hampshire. The only state where the total approached Georgia’s was Louisiana, at 4.0 percent.

So who were these people? Were they Obama voters who just cast their ballots for their favorite and walked out? The evidence for that is weak. In Fulton County, which went for Obama by more than 2-1, the undervote was 2.85 percent, lower than the undervote rate in McCain counties such as Cobb (3.4 percent) and Cherokee (3.1 percent). In DeKalb County the rate was 4.4 percent, about the state average.

So what’s YOUR explanation? "

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/bookman/entries/2008/11/10/168785_missing_voters_in_senat.html
I think this means that Georgia is still viable for Martin, especially if his ads can differentiate him from Chambliss, and effectively answer the "Fair Tax" idiocy Chambliss has made an issue. It is, as has been repeatedly said, all about turnout....

Posted by: MR Bill on November 10, 2008 at 4:21 PM | PERMALINK

Wonder what the undervote was state-by-state where someone voted in the Senate and/or Congressional race, but failed to vote in the Presidential race?

No agenda, just seriously wondering if it happens.

Posted by: Howard on November 10, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

I can just hear the wingnuts crying foul if somehow Dems get to a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and Coleman's loss is what cinched it.

but wingnut whining will be drowned out by the joy of liberals cheering Coleman's getting the boot.

Posted by: Gregory on November 10, 2008 at 4:58 PM | PERMALINK

Steve, what does ", but even if he's given up on avoiding a recount." mean?

Posted by: Crissa on November 10, 2008 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

Steve, what does ", but even if he's given up on avoiding a recount." mean?

It means Steve forgot to take the word "if" out of that sentence.

We love you, Steve, but your proofreading of late...dood.

Posted by: shortstop on November 10, 2008 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK

My money's on Franken.

Posted by: SteveB on November 10, 2008 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

If Franken wins Bill O'Reilly will have a heart attack. Let's all keep hoping.

Posted by: jaxshark on November 10, 2008 at 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

Good thing Franken didn't have to rely on the grandiose likes of Olbermann non-voters who arrogantly imagine they are above the fray and justify such refusal to vote as "SYMBOLIC".

Posted by: Good Thing Olbermann isn't in Minnesota on November 11, 2008 at 4:20 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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