Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 17, 2008

KEEPING THE HEAT ON IN GEORGIA.... They're still counting the votes in Alaska, and headed towards a recount in Minnesota, but there's still one more important statewide race left before we close the book on the 2008 election cycle: the run-off contest in Georgia.

For Democrats, this is an uphill challenge. Incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) received more than 49% of the vote on Election Day, coming just short of avoiding the runoff. What's more, this is a state John McCain won by five points, and where turnout is expected to be far less than it was on Nov. 4. For Democrat Jim Martin, it's a tough hurdle to clear.

It's what makes this ad so interesting. Georgia may be a conservative "red" state, but Martin's new ad emphasizes Chambliss' opposition to Obama's economic plan -- twice. As Eric Kleefeld noted, "The rub here is that this runoff is similar in many ways to a special election, which is all about mobilizing the base. And Martin sees here an opportunity to capitalize on Obama's honeymoon period in order to get Democratic voters out to the polls for a second time."

For their part, Republicans are investing heavily in this contest -- it may be the only thing stopping Dems from having a 60-seat majority -- and everyone from McCain to Palin to Romney to Huckabee has been anxious to help rally the Republican troops in support of Chambliss.

Does Martin have a realistic shot? Don't rule him out just yet. Markos reported yesterday on a new Research 2000 poll showing Chambliss with a three-point lead, 49% to 46%, which makes the race "winnable" for Democrats. Meanwhile, Obama is unlikely to campaign in Georgia before the run-off, but the president-elect has reportedly dispatched his Ohio field team to Georgia to give Martin a hand, and the DSCC is making its move, as well.

Stay tuned.

Steve Benen 12:21 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)
 
Comments

it may be the only thing stopping Dems from having a 60-seat majority

Assuming, of course, that you think a 60-vote majority including Joe Lieberman is a number worth having.

Posted by: Jinchi on November 17, 2008 at 12:32 PM | PERMALINK

IMO Obama should be down there right now. I can't understand why he isn't, but I guess I have to trust the guy's political instincts.

And I agree with Jinchi, if the magic 60 number includes Lieberman and he gets to keep his gavel because of that, it won't be worth it.

The man needs to walk the plank.

Posted by: Racer X on November 17, 2008 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK

The Republicans are running a tremendous risk if they plan on a lot of unanimous filibusters. The mantra in 2008 was CHANGE. Spector turns 80 in 2010, while Bunning turns 79. Grassley, Gregg, Voinovich, Martinez and Burr are in red states, turned blue. Brownback could face a challenge from Sebilius. And Thume, Vitter, and Murkowski won close elections in 2004. They might be best hoping the Dems get 60 now, and convince Lieberman to stay in the Dem caucus.

Posted by: Danp on November 17, 2008 at 12:43 PM | PERMALINK

There should be a condition on Lieberman keeping his gavel that he successfully campaigns for Martin. Make him go to Georgia and stump for Martin at shopping malls until election day.

Posted by: Don on November 17, 2008 at 12:59 PM | PERMALINK

There should be a condition on Lieberman keeping his gavel that he successfully campaigns for Martin. Make him go to Georgia and stump for Martin at shopping malls until election day.

Aieee! I know we folks in Georgia have done bad things (well, we sent Newt Gingrich to the House), but what did we do to deserve that?!?

(Seriously, this would probably be a good thing. Saxby's ad blitz has turned off scads of voters, and there is a conservative faction of the Xtian voters for whom Holy Joe is popular. I'm not sure that it's cozmic justice, but close enough..)

Posted by: MR Bill on November 17, 2008 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK

I was born in south Georgia and lived there twenty eight years after I turned thirty. Obama is smart. You can send surrogates to acomplish what you can't do your self.If you look at the state Mr Martin has a chance. I dislike his opponet and I think a lot of Georgians do to.I am a veteran and he treated Max Clealand wrong. Obamas problem in Georgia is race plain and simple. He should stay out of it and manipulate it from a distance. white boy said that.

Posted by: EC Sedgwick on November 17, 2008 at 1:16 PM | PERMALINK

Add to this tight race - Bill Clinton is coming to town....Jim Martin is pulling all the big names he can to get the Dems base going here and voting. I live here in Georgia and it is as red a state as they come. But I think with the Dems clear win on Nov 4th was a resounding call to boot the Bushies and his Repubs out the door - big time.

Let's all pull for Jim Martin to boot Chambliss out and start making this southern state alittle pink instead of red and possibly light blue....

Posted by: wom46 on November 17, 2008 at 1:18 PM | PERMALINK

IMO Obama should be down there right now. I can't understand why he isn't... -Racer X

Probably just too busy with the transition, which I think is equally, if not more important.

Honestly, I don't have faith in the Democrats winning a statewide runoff in GA. Turnout will be much lower and there won't be any presidential coattails at all.

I see the polls, but I doubt the turnout will be there.

Posted by: doubtful on November 17, 2008 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK

There is absolutely no reason that Obama can't go down to Georgia and stir things up as December 2nd approaches.

And it's not just about one more Democrat in the Senate. Chambliss deserves to lose after the spiteful way he treated Max Cleland in 2002. But I'm guessing that Obama doesn't want to waste political capital on a potential loss for the party.

I don't buy the too busy claim, BTW. He can take the briefing books with him on the dang plane.

Posted by: Stacy on November 17, 2008 at 2:42 PM | PERMALINK

Zell Miller endorses Saxby, thus completing his race for political senility..
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/zel-miller-endorses-saxby-chambliss

Posted by: MR Bill on November 17, 2008 at 3:22 PM | PERMALINK

There is absolutely no reason that Obama can't go down to Georgia and stir things up as December 2nd approaches. -Stacy

I don't buy the too busy claim, BTW. -Stacy

So, you're an export on successful presidential transitions, then?

Well, I don't buy the 'he does have time claim.' Oh, isn't this just grand fun, the back and forth with no evidence, Stacy!

Look, when you've ran a successful presidential campaign and transition into the White House, let me know, until then, let Obama do it his way. If you're that concerned about Martin getting elected, go knock on doors instead of wasting your time second guessing the president elect.

Sorry to be an ass, but no one here knows enough about Obama's schedule to dictate so emphatically what he does or doesn't have time to do, and like I said before, a seamless transition could be just as or more important (especially to national security), and that's what I want him to focus on.

Posted by: doubtful on November 17, 2008 at 3:44 PM | PERMALINK

It isn't just the matter of having/not having the time, though that's, probably, paramount. It's also that he probably shouldn't be too visible, just in case Martin loses; he needs to preserve the "almost invincible" image, in order to be the most effective come January. But he *is* helping; among other things, he's made his own field offices available to and working for Martin which, IMO, is even more important since, as someone above pointed out, it'll all come down to turnout and that's what those who'd worked for his own campaign are good at.

And other Dems are going out there to stump for Martin. Bill Clinton for one and, today, I had a message from Donna Brazile asking me to either contribute or come and volunteer, do whatever you can.

Vis the 60 votes. Even without Lieberman (I don't count him as a Dem vote. Once bitten...), the closer we can get to the "magic number", the better. It's easier to find and sway *one* Repub than it is *two* (and easier to find two than three, etc). Those Repub "fill-ins" would have to be found on a case-by-case (ie different ones might join on different bills) basis, so the less time is spent on persuading them the more can be spent on getting things *done*.

Posted by: exlibra on November 17, 2008 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK

I really hope we are able to end the republican senate obstructionism which has prevented progress in this nation for 2yrs now.. Has Georgia progressed enough to want to see the nation move forward rather than remaining stuck.

Posted by: joey on November 17, 2008 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK

btw....There are enough DINOs in the dem party that will stand in the way of policies that might curtail corporation's profiteering. Plus there will always be some republicans who will not vote with their party on a number of issues.

At least we won't have to worry about having enough votes to overcome a presidential veto...most likely there will never be one.

Posted by: joey on November 17, 2008 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK

Democrats are obsessing too much on the magic number 60. They've already won enough seats to substantially move their agenda forward. Republicans were able to effectively filibuster this year because they had 9-votes to spare and that allowed moderate Republicans to break away and vote for cloture if they needed to, without actually derailing Mitch McConnell's plans.

Republicans were able to successfully filibuster bills while Senators like Collins, Coleman, Dole, Domenici, Grassley, Lugar, Roberts, Smith, Snowe, Specter, Stevens, Warner and Voinovich voted to end debate. Others avoided voting at all. They won't be able do that in the next Senate.

Now, virtually every Republican is on the line.

Posted by: Jinchi on November 17, 2008 at 6:08 PM | PERMALINK

doubtful, don't be an ass.

She made two reasonable points. Whatever BO's reason for not campaigning in Georgia, being too busy isn't one of them.

And yes, I'm an expert on transitions.

Posted by: Cash on November 17, 2008 at 6:31 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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