Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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December 7, 2008

JEFFERSON ON ICE.... Following up on Hilzoy's overnight item, it's now official -- with all the precincts reporting, Rep. William "Cash in the Freezer" Jefferson (D), in a huge upset, has been defeated.

Indicted Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) has lost his New Orleans-based Congressional seat to a little-known Republican attorney, Anh "Joseph" Cao.

With all precincts reporting, Cao has defeated Jefferson 50 to 47 percent. The AP has called the race for Cao.

Even with Jefferson's ethical woes, his ouster comes as a huge shock. His New Orleans district is one of the most Democratic in the country, giving President Bush only 24 percent of the vote in 2004. And he hadn't suffered at all politically since indicted for bribery in June 2007, comfortably defeating another Democrat in the Election Day primary.

Turnout was extremely low, which no doubt contributed to the result.

Regardless, no one saw this coming. Late last week, Peter Burns, a political science professor at Loyola University New Orleans, said, "If [Jefferson] lost at this stage, it would be a colossal upset." And that's exactly what it was. Indeed, in some circles, if Jefferson was going to lose in this bluer-than-blue district, it would have been more likely to see a Green Party candidate pull an upset than a Republican.

And yet, here we are. Cao, an immigration attorney, will become the first Vietnamese-American to serve in Congress. With all due respect to the Representative-elect, Cao probably shouldn't get too comfortable. In two years, Democrats will have a candidate who wasn't caught allegedly taking bribes, and who'll run without the burden of multiple felony indictments.

In fact, it's worth remembering that I've probably never seen so many Democrats so pleased to see a Republican defeat a Democratic incumbent. The DCCC not only refused to help Jefferson's re-election bid, but the party didn't even endorse him.

Cao's surprise win has reduced the Democrats' margin over Republicans in the House to "only" 79 seats, 256 to 177.

Steve Benen 8:00 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (20)
 
Comments

Great, a sure Democratic win in 2010. One gain to balance the almost certain Republican't wins in an off election during a Democratic President's first term.

Posted by: Lance on December 7, 2008 at 8:34 AM | PERMALINK

If the Democrats in his district had their shit together, he would have been ousted in a primary in 2006. Unfortunately, the power of incumbancy is usually too strong to overcome at the primary level. Needless to say, we, as a party, must not tolerate elected officials like Jefferson. The Demoicrats must necessarily be a big tent, but not so big as to include corrupt pols and their cronies.

Posted by: RWB on December 7, 2008 at 8:56 AM | PERMALINK

I'll take the loss of a seat for the ouster of "Cold Cash" Jefferson. The Dems should have tossed him as soon as he was charged & the CBC's behaviour was shameful.

Posted by: raff on December 7, 2008 at 9:00 AM | PERMALINK

Rostenkowski's seat was won by some Repub in 1994 - that one flipped back quickly. No reason this will be any different, unless the Katrina diaspora is bigger and longer than anyone projected.

Posted by: The Geografist on December 7, 2008 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK

It's almost like Republicans have some sort of built-in advantage when the election is held on any day but election day.

Posted by: doubtful on December 7, 2008 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

This, coupled with Saxby Chamblis' win in Georgia, clearly is a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Barack Obama's handling of the transition to the Presidency and a clear indicator of a new surge in Republican Party strength that will be reflected in major restoration of the party's power in 2010.

You go GOP....being more conservative is clearly the path to victory.

Posted by: dweb on December 7, 2008 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

And the GOP declares the beginning of the end of Democrats rule in five, four, three...

Posted by: martin on December 7, 2008 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

First Chambliss, now Cao!
OMG!

It's a Republican rout!
Ready for the gleeful whoops that the GOP is back and ready for action in 2010?


Democrats have bounced their number one "They it too!" Achilles heel. 10:1 says none of them recognizes this turn of events as a bad thing for them in the long term.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on December 7, 2008 at 10:21 AM | PERMALINK

Poor Michelle Malkin:

Well, this tempers my enthusiasm: A commenter notes that Cao is pro-amnesty immigration lawyer.

Posted by: DonBoy on December 7, 2008 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK

So, does the FBI put a tail on Jefferson and his "magic refrigerator" and conduct a new search the minute the new Congress is sworn in?

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on December 7, 2008 at 11:00 AM | PERMALINK

First Jefferson, then Lieberman.

Posted by: Bob M on December 7, 2008 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK

As the job market becomes ever smaller, glad to hear a huge field is opening in Louisiana. Vetting should put a whole lot of PIs to work, no matter which side of the Bayou, one is on.

Money, young boys or girls, animals..........

Posted by: berttheclock on December 7, 2008 at 11:23 AM | PERMALINK

Losing this seat for two years is a small price to pay to get Dollar Bill out. Regardless of how much of a pariah he was, him still being on Capitol Hill was a stain on the Democrats. Cao did us a big favor here.

I agree, he's one term and done. The comparison to Rostenkowski's defeat in 1994 are quite obvious.

Posted by: gf120581 on December 7, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK

I've probably never seen so many Democrats so pleased to see a Republican defeat a Democratic incumbent. The DCCC not only refused to help Jefferson's re-election bid, but the party didn't even endorse him.

Kudos to the Democratic Party on this one.

Yes, Cao will have to work hard to be re-elected, but there are lots of Vietnamese in Louisiana, and the governor is a Republican. If Cao does better than Jefferson at Katrina-related restoration, he should have a good chance.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on December 7, 2008 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

The name others can't remember is Michael Patrick Flanagan, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Patrick_Flanagan

Flanagan beat Rostenkowski.

And Flanagan was beat by Rod Blagojevich.

Posted by: Carl Nyberg on December 7, 2008 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK

Hmm, if the Feds pop Blagojevich, Flanagan should run for governor.

Congratulations to Joseph Cao, he seems like a nice guy. He's probably not long for Congress, however if he can make it past 2010, he's set. After reapportionment, the LA legislature can gerrymander his district into a safe seat.

Posted by: beowulf on December 7, 2008 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

This is good news. Jefferson is a criminal, and he's hopefully got jail time in his future. The only real regret is that the Dems might have been able to shitcan him earlier and get another Dem to run for the seat.

Posted by: Nixon Did It on December 7, 2008 at 8:01 PM | PERMALINK

Congratulations Representative Cao!

Posted by: MarkH on December 7, 2008 at 8:28 PM | PERMALINK

Cao just might be what the republicans needs - Someone who knows how to govern.

The republicans can run successful campaigns - yet they are dumb as hell when it comes to using skills and making decisions.

Posted by: annjell on December 7, 2008 at 8:44 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, Michelle- "pull the ladder up after me and stomp on the fingers of any one trying to do what I did."

Posted by: MikeN on December 7, 2008 at 10:56 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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