December 8, 2008
SEIZING ON BAD EXAMPLES.... I realize Republicans have had a very bad year, and under the circumstances, it's understandable to look for -- and exaggerate -- any glimmers of electoral hope. But some of the arguments from GOP leaders over the last week have been pretty silly.
Last week, when Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss won a runoff election in a solidly Republican state, the Republican National Committee said the predictable victory was evidence of the GOP's "momentum," and proof that Barack Obama doesn't have a mandate.
This week, the party is heralding Anh "Joseph" Cao's upset over William Jefferson is New Orleans as evidence of ... well, something good for the party. Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), responding to the surprise win, believes there's a lesson to be learned from this race.
In a memo to colleagues called "The Time is Cao," Boehner says that Anh "Joseph" Cao's win over Jefferson in a heavily Democratic district points the way out of the wilderness. The House GOP focus, he argues, ought to be ethics, ethics, ethics.
"The Future is Cao" reads the subject line of Boehner's memo. "As House Republicans look ahead to the next two years, the Cao victory is a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people," offers Boehner.
Boehner argued that Cao won because he took "an aggressive stand against corruption." That may be true, or perhaps he won because Jefferson is under criminal indictment, is on video accepting bribes, and had cash found in his freezer when FBI agents raided his home.
Boehner believes, "The Cao victory is a symbol of our future." Really? Putting aside Cao's professed moderation, which the GOP will likely disapprove of, exactly how many races in the future will feature largely unknown Republicans challenging indicted Democratic incumbents?
Republicans have the smallest House minority in nearly two decades, and the smallest Senate minority in nearly three decades. They got trounced in the presidential race, and are now easily outnumbered in the nation's governorships. But they managed, with surprising difficulty, to hold on to a Senate seat in the deep South, while beating a scandal-plagued incumbent, currently under felony indictment, elsewhere in the deep South.
As silver linings go, this is rather thin.
—Steve Benen 12:40 PM
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Remember Michael Flanagan, the Republican non-entity who was elected to Congress in 1994, ousting Dan Rostenkowski? Considering this is a D +20 district, it seems that Mr. Cao will have a career as short as Flanagan's.
Posted by: DJ on December 8, 2008 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK
...a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people," offers Boehner
Gee, it's too bad for them that they didn't think to do these things before, oh, say, November 4, 2008.
Posted by: Screamin' Demon on December 8, 2008 at 12:55 PM | PERMALINK
Jefferson lost because he was a crook.
The Republican Party lost big in 2008 because it is an entire party of crooks.
Indeed the Republican Party of Dick Cheney and George W. Bush is not really a political party in the normal sense any more. It is an organized crime enterprise, masquerading as a political party.
Posted by: SecularAnimist on December 8, 2008 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK
You can't really argue with what Boehner said in principle. As Screamin' Demon said, it's what they should have thought of long ago if they really want to succeed in the new political environment.
The big monkey in the room is that talk is cheap and they would have to actually put those principles into concrete action to get any real success with them.
And I seriously doubt they're willing to go that far. So it's all just pretty much a waste of oxygen for Boehner at this point.
Posted by: Curmudgeon on December 8, 2008 at 1:04 PM | PERMALINK
The smallest House minority, the smallest Senate minority, trounced in the presidential race, and are outnumbered in the nation's governorships. But they managed to hold on to a Senate seat in the deep South, while beating a scandal-plagued incumbent, currently under felony indictment, elsewhere in the deep South.
"...is a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people," offers Boehner.
If that's how they like it!
Posted by: ThatGuy on December 8, 2008 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK
Cao's election simply proves that Dem voters have higher ethical standards than the Rebubs who voted for Ted Stevens. I'm an independent, but I think Dems should be proud of the voters who opted for a moderate Repub rather than a crook, especially since the Dem national establishment refused to help or even endorse Jefferson.
Posted by: Tim H on December 8, 2008 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
Cao got about 30,000 votes after the Republican party put about $900,000 into the race. With 255 Dems already elected to Congress, I'm guessing a lot of people felt it wasn't so important to bite their lip and vote for for Jefferson.
Posted by: Danp on December 8, 2008 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK
At this time it is unknown how many Democratic legislators will be video taped accepting bribes or have hidden cash found in their freezers during the next eight years, but it will probably be more than a few. These few, or many, corrupt Democrats will help the Republicans return to political power. Rep Rangel may be able to win reelection, and he may be able to avoid prosecution, but he cannot avoid publicity about his graft. If the Democratic leadership is unwilling to confront systemic corruption within its own ranks, the public will choose an alternative, even if it is worse.
Posted by: Brojo on December 8, 2008 at 1:21 PM | PERMALINK
So, the Dems lost Jefferson and the Republicans lost Stevens. Sounds to me like a draw, not to mention proof that corruption is a bipartisan sport, and that incumbents who are too flagrantly corrupt get booted, regardless of party, ideology, race, creed, color, sex, or sexual orientation. Yes, Mr. Spitzer and Mr. Craig, I'm looking at both of you, and Mr. Vitter, you better stick to the straight & narrow if you want to stay employed much longer.
Posted by: T-Rex on December 8, 2008 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
An idea popped into my head last night when reading about these close elections and the problem with getting rid of incumbents.
And I don't just mean the opposition party getting rid of incumbents, but even the party that the incumbent belongs to. For instance, I suspect the Louisiana Democrats would have loved to replace Jefferson.
I'm sure that what I'm about to propose will have the one-man-one-vote crowd up in arms, but a vibrant democracy requires leaders who serve the needs of all of their constituents and not just the ones who voted them into office.
Getting elected to Congress is hard. Beating an incumbent is nearly impossible. The party in power can create districts which create so-called safe districts and tend to dilute minority representation (minority party, race, class, whatever).
I'm sure that this requires a constitutional amendment:
An incumbent must win the popular vote in their election by a percentage greater than the number of years they have been continuously in office.
So a one-term incumbent would need to win re-election by 51-49. The Georgia rules should apply requiring a majority of cast votes to win, and the opposition totals should be added together. This amounts to gaining an additional 1% support from the voters in your district per two-year election cycle, or for a senator, gaining 3% per cycle.
If an incumbent loses, their math starts over again and in the next cycle they can run as a first-time candidate. Senators who lose would need to wait six years to run for re-election as a non-incumbent.
If the incumbent doesn't achieve their target majority+, these votes are set aside. The runner-up must receive at least 70% of the remaining votes to win outright, otherwise any candidate who received at least 30% of the remaining votes competes in a runoff.
Posted by: tomj on December 8, 2008 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK
Don't forget that Louisiana, especially New Orleans, became a much redder place after Katrina.
The GOP will survive as a regional party of the South. Because they have a solid base of support in the non-changing sections of that region, there will be little motivation for them to alter course. Hence, they will be a permanent opposition party that snipes from the sides, but never takes national power.
Posted by: g. powell on December 8, 2008 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
Reality was never their strong suit.
Posted by: Riggsveda on December 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK
Getting elected to Congress is hard. Beating an incumbent is nearly impossible. The party in power can create districts which create so-called safe districts and tend to dilute minority representation (minority party, race, class, whatever).
I'm sure that this requires a constitutional amendment:
No, for two reasons: first, the Congress can regulate elections for the House by statute (Article I, Section 4). Second, rather than weird supermajority requirements, all you really need to mandate is a sensible preference voting system (and, for more bang for your buck, combine that with requiring multimember districts with a proportional preference-based voting system in states with more than representative in the House.)
Preference voting lets opposition combine "naturally" if that's the way people's preferences really run, without artificial manipulation of vote totals or making different candidates need a different vote total to get elected. Multimember districts with candidate-centered proportional elections do the same, but also encourage parties -- even those holding one or more seats in the district currently -- to nominate more candidates than they currently have seats, which gives voters a practical choice among candidates even if they happen to prefer the party of one or more current incumbents.
Posted by: cmdicely on December 8, 2008 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK
"Boehner argued that Cao won because he took 'an aggressive stand against corruption.' That may be true, or perhaps he won because Jefferson is under criminal indictment, is on video accepting bribes, and had cash found in his freezer when FBI agents raided his home."
And maybe it helped that a whole lot of black people got moved out of New Orleans by Katrina and have not been let back in by policies preventing rebuilding of their homes.
This removal of Democrats from both the city and the state helped Bobby Jindal, too.
Posted by: Cal Gal on December 8, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
The occupation of Anh Cao, the Republican who beat Jefferson and will become the next Representative from Louisiana's Second Congressional district?
Attorney and ... community ORGANIZER!
As we all know, that's kind of like being Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, only without the responsibility.
Posted by: twc on December 8, 2008 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK
The GOP might use ethics as an issue if their culture had a synonym in commun usage in their native tongue. After they fully grasp the concept, the second hurdle they'll face is finding a definition for 'evidence' to replace 'allegation' with. Then they face the task of appointing Justice officials who also grasp the difference between politically posturing appointees and the other kind: competent.
All in all, it's very doable... as soon as geneticallly modified moral consciences reach the marketplace and they buy a few, accidentally.
Posted by: Kevin Hayden on December 8, 2008 at 2:45 PM | PERMALINK
Republican victories in Louisiana (against a felon) and Georgia? Memo to Democrats: Don't have a Cao, man.
Posted by: gradysu on December 8, 2008 at 2:57 PM | PERMALINK
how many races in the future will feature largely unknown Republicans challenging indicted Democratic incumbents?
Who's running against Rangel in 2010?
1 down, 6 to go
Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on December 8, 2008 at 2:58 PM | PERMALINK
So, the Dems lost Jefferson and the Republicans lost Stevens. Sounds to me like a draw [...] -- T-Rex, @13:37
Not exactly, since they re-elected Don Young (also of Alaska), his crookedness notwithstanding...
Posted by: exlibra on December 8, 2008 at 4:08 PM | PERMALINK
here in ohio, the democratic candidate for an open seat that had been held by the gop was just declared the winner...one more seat goes blue...feel the momentum...
Mary Jo Kilroy, a Franklin County commissioner who came within 1,062 votes of unseating incumbent Republican Deborah Pryce two years ago, will be representing Ohio's 15th Congressional District.
The district is now in Democratic hands for the first time in 42 years.
Posted by: dj spellchecka on December 8, 2008 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK
PS. And read the CREW list in the link that 2weary4outrage has provided, @14:58. Out of 20 most corrupt, 14 are Repubs and 6 are Dems. If you include the dishonorable mentions -- another 4 names -- there's 3 Repubs and 1 Dem. So, whichever way you slice it, there's at least two slimy Repubs to one Dem, closer to 3:1. Which makes the odds of their running on ethics that much less probable (and that much more difficult for them).
Posted by: exlibra on December 8, 2008 at 4:17 PM | PERMALINK
Did Boehner really write "The Future is Cao"?! Jesus. Really? You're sure you didn't read that in The Onion?
Posted by: Mrs Tilton on December 9, 2008 at 3:19 AM | PERMALINK
SecularAnimist: The Republican Party lost big in 2008 because it is an entire party of crooks.
well....of the 14 people who have been convicted or pled guilty in the abramoff scandal...
all 14 have been republicans...
heckofajob...
Posted by: mr. irony on December 9, 2008 at 7:28 AM | PERMALINK
Boehner is an idiot. New Orleanians didn't take a stand against corruption they just didn't vote for Jefferson. Taking a stand against corruption in Louisiana didn't ever really win an election for anyone (possibly Romer but then he only had one term as governor anyway). And I am from NOLA.
Heck, Cao is not unlikely to get booted in two years anyway so crowing about this right now just looks sad and desperate. This is NOT, I repeat NOT, some sort of harbinger for Republicans. This was New Orleanians finally getting wise to Jefferson and getting fed up enough with his shit to kick his ass to the curb.
Posted by: ET on December 9, 2008 at 9:22 AM | PERMALINK