December 28, 2008
A 'WAVE OF RETAILER BANKRUPTCIES'.... We talked the other day about the striking drop in consumer spending over the holidays, with revenue that was "much worse than the already-dire picture painted by industry forecasts." The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend that the commercial landscape is likely to deteriorate further in the new year, with a "wave of retailer bankruptcies."
"We will have a lot fewer stores by the middle of 2009," says Nancy Koehn, professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. "It's happening very, very quickly because of the financial crisis and the recession." [...]
Corporate-turnaround experts and bankruptcy lawyers are predicting a wave of retailer bankruptcies early next year, after being contacted by big and small retailers either preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or scrambling to avoid that fate.
Analysts estimate that from about 10% to 26% of all retailers are in financial distress and in danger of filing for Chapter 11. AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010. In the previous two years, the firm had estimated 4% to 7% of retailers then tracked were at a high risk for filing.
One-fourth of all retailers is a lot of stores. Think about your local mall, and then think about a quarter of the stores disappearing, as compared to a year prior.
The ripple effect will be fairly broad, affecting suppliers and manufacturers, and limiting retail selections for those shoppers who have disposable income, but won't find as much of what they're looking for on store shelves.
—Steve Benen 11:00 AM
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Have the GOP corporatists encouraged too many small businesses over the years? Maybe there is too much junk out there for sale in little brick buildings.
Posted by: Hedley Lamarr on December 28, 2008 at 11:02 AM | PERMALINK
That's the scariest thing I've seen here yet.
So should we buy staple foods now? I mean shit. And tell me this, if we won't be able to buy stuff, why the fuck are we bailing out the auto industry if there's nowhere to go? Shouldn't we be more concerned about food supply?
Now I'm nervous.
Posted by: MissMudd on December 28, 2008 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK
The Republican solution would be to lower minimum wage, so that more people could afford to shop at Walmart.
Hedley Lamarr - Republicans use the term "small business" like they use "middle class". What they actually encourage is near monopoly conglomerates that make it difficult for small business to make a profit.
Posted by: Danp on December 28, 2008 at 11:07 AM | PERMALINK
They call it black Friday because that is the first time retailers really go in the black all year. If black Friday failed this year massive bankruptcies are inevitable.
Posted by: Ron Byers on December 28, 2008 at 11:08 AM | PERMALINK
Sure, stores go belly up, but all their goods are right where you want them, on the Internet.
On line sales will restore about half the missing sales, the remaining half will have to wait until producers see what kind of infrastructure we end up with to move goods more efficiently.
This might be another case of progressives using Keynes to justify brick and mortar when consumers want on line shopping.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 11:11 AM | PERMALINK
Empty stores are always a bad idea. Whether they should have been built in the first place is a separate question.
However, I confess to being continuously puzzled by this contradiction that's repeated in popular discussion and the business press: When we buy less imported oil, it is considered a good thing (which I believe it is). When we buy less made-in-China-or-elsewhere stuff at a retail store, it's considered a bad thing (which I believe it's not).
Admittedly, stores do provide jobs, but so does the local gas station. If those stores were stocked with more expensive American-made items carrying a higher profit margin on fewer unit sales but the products carrying a higher quality and longer useful life, we as a country could have the same $$ payroll and the same 'quality of stuff' (to coin a new phrase) as we do now with disposable chinese imports. And not be pushing us to foreign debt-driven bankruptcy.
Posted by: JohnJay60 on December 28, 2008 at 11:12 AM | PERMALINK
If the rest of the country is anything like not-particularly-affluent Northeast Ohio where I live, retail over the last couple of decades has become MASSIVELY overbuilt. It was inevitable that the day of reckoning would come when the bubble economy popped, especially with the ever-growing popularity of online retailers.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on December 28, 2008 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK
Part of this impending wave of closings is that we've been over-retailed for at least a decade, with far more new space being opened than was warranted by sales alone by developers trying to make a fast buck on yet another new big box or strip mall. I have no sympathy for them or for those communities who had visions of shopping plums dancing in their heads when they backed such overbuilding. There's going to be a huge void in commercial real estate for the next ten years thanks to idiots ignoring the obvious.
As for retail selection, bah, I can always go to the internets for that. What I want more from retail isn't selection but service. Retailers who provide such added value will survive.
Posted by: David W. on December 28, 2008 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK
As Ollie would say to Stan, and as we should say to good ol'Punkie Bush - "What a fine mess you've gotten us into!"
When will it dawn on our pundit class that our economy is in the tank largely due to the costly nature of two war efforts, the ever-growing economic disparities between upper and lower class Americans due to Bush's tax policies and the unregulated avarice of corporate executives who only seemed to worry about each quarter at a time and their stinking bonuses at the expense of sober corporate policy and product.
I mean, come on, trading on futures of futures that may or may not come to fruition? And, expecting nothing ill would come from such folly? What poofters, the lot of them!
It makes me very sad, but somewhere in some cave in the northern mountains of Pakistan sits Osama bin Ladin with a smile on his face! -Kevo
Posted by: kevo on December 28, 2008 at 11:20 AM | PERMALINK
Millions of Americans don't have access to the internet and wouldn't know how to make a purchase on it even if they did. Easy to forget isn't it, when most of us spend our days casually hitting reload to see the next big thing?
The poor are already desperate. Are we going to make them stand in queues at a kiosk to order food while the rest of us gloat and hoard?
"I burned my notebooks, what good are notebooks? They won't help me survive."
Posted by: MissMudd on December 28, 2008 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK
I don't understand why they are still building retail. In my town two large strip malls have sprouted up like mushrooms this fall. They both stand empty. We have entire shopping centers that are hopelessly underutilized. For some unknown reason Lowes is building a store next door to the local Home Depot. It will save me a 2 mile drive to the next town. I think it is all nuts.
Posted by: Ron Byers on December 28, 2008 at 11:30 AM | PERMALINK
The poor are already desperate. Are we going to make them stand in queues at a kiosk to order food while the rest of us gloat and hoard?
Get a grip. The supermarket chains were never in poor urban neighborhoods in the first place. You can't lose something you never had. The overbuilding, and hence the inevitable correction, was in the suburbs.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on December 28, 2008 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK
Of course what's truly sad is the loss of jobs associated with said retail downsizing. Even if they were crappy not so great paying jobs, they were still jobs.
Posted by: David W. on December 28, 2008 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK
But it won't be 1/4 of stores at all malls. Some malls will be particularly hard hit.
Communities with less money will lose half their stores or more. And those communities already had higher unemployment than average.
And yes, there are poorer suburbs.
Posted by: Carl Nyberg on December 28, 2008 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK
The supermarket chains were never in poor urban neighborhoods in the first place.
Oh and what? They buy food on the street corner with their daily crack?
Thanks for the enlightenment.
Posted by: MissMudd on December 28, 2008 at 11:44 AM | PERMALINK
Thanks for the enlightenment.
You're welcome. Thanks for the hysteria.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on December 28, 2008 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK
Has the wave really hit the service industries(restaurants) yet? It has amazed me for years how often Americans, of even modest means, dine out. Many who work in restaurants/fast food are on the edge of insolvency during the best of times.
Posted by: Michael7843853 on December 28, 2008 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK
You'll notice I didn't fucking write headline you arrogant oaf. And yes, I'm hysterical. I have two kids in college, a comically dwindling retirement fund, and my humble little house is losing value with every letter I type. I can't even imagine how the poor are faring now let alone the coming year.
And we're supposed to remain calm? Brilliant plan. YOU should run for office.
Posted by: MissMudd on December 28, 2008 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
The supermarket chains were never in poor urban neighborhoods in the first place.
Oh and what? They buy food on the street corner with their daily crack?
Thanks for the enlightenment.
I think it just means that there are very few or no huge food stores (i.e. supermarkets) in many poor urban areas. Instead there are much smaller stores more like convenience stores and small outlets, and many of those are one-off, not big state- or nation-wide chains.
Posted by: Marfisa on December 28, 2008 at 12:18 PM | PERMALINK
Michael7843853, restaurants are also having harder times these days, with mid-range chains like Bennigan's going under last summer with others sure to follow in the coming year.
Posted by: David W. on December 28, 2008 at 12:19 PM | PERMALINK
A quick internet search yields the following PEW report from,
http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/182/report_display.asp
"...our latest survey, fielded February 15 April 6, 2006 shows that fully 73% of respondents (about 147 million adults) are internet users, up from 66% (about 133 million adults) in our January 2005 survey. And the share of Americans who have broadband connections at home has now reached 42% (about 84 million), up from 29% (about 59 million) in January 2005."
Clearly, consumers see much more and much more depth on the Internet than they do in stores. That is the problem, that is the cause of the current depression. The bottleneck is that we spend more on personal transportation and less on intelligent goods transportation. The stores think that walk-in customers will arrive, they have arrived, they have arrived via digital and cannot get the goods through a transportation system geared to different requirements.
Exact same problem we had in the geat depression, except that time it was commercial radio, which expanded enormously, and continuously throughout the 20s and 30s. The solution in the great depression was the personal automobile so consumers could go where the radio told them to go.
Our problem today is that we had adapted to mass radio and TV markets, but the internet market now rules; so we have to remake transportation to fit the online model.
That means, online education and less brick classroom, online judicial and less brick court houses, online shopping and less brick stores.
Online education, up 10%, even in the recession. Cell phones, continuing to grow at 8% or so per year, if not more. Disintermediation of legal services via on line filings and forms. Real estate agents going away, replaced by online real estate advertisements.
We are approaching a zero inventory system where the consumer manages goods flow from the factory floor to delivery. We have to fix delivery, it is the bottleneck.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 12:40 PM | PERMALINK
I guess "fuck the working class" MattYoung thinks it's no big deal that millions will be thrown out of work while "more efficient" (usually meaning, owners reduce employee "cost" which is of course our income, jackass.) Don't take it too personally, I just needed to vent about that prissy abstract economic bilge, especially since you wanted to blame Keynes/progressives when the major cause of overbuilding was developers, government entities wanting big insider projects, Republicans rewarding speculation and real estate turn over with favorable tax policy (which also contradicts their other claimed love of not tweaking the natural market with policy carrots and sticks.) No contradiction in my saying it's wrong to callously blow off the result of sudden retail deflation, versus complaining about stimulating it in the past: the difference is between encouraging an orderly development of "more efficient" advanced operations in the economy (which we, with the usual suspects at the helm, didn't do), versus a "bubble" oriented build up to a pop.
Posted by: Neil B ◙ on December 28, 2008 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK
BORe is prolly beside himself seeing that the 'free market' is warring on Christmas
Posted by: Jet on December 28, 2008 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK
do you know why these business are failing?
they pay their employees too much!
yes! this is all because of minimum wage.
if these retailers didn't have to pay employees to work in their stores they could make some money!
i blame the store employees.
Posted by: karen marie on December 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK
Yes, its those high paid foreigners in China, Japan and Malaysias fault!!
Damn them for working for pennies a day!!
Posted by: Jet on December 28, 2008 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK
"(usually meaning, owners reduce employee "cost" which is of course our income, jackass.) "
says Neil, which is why he must be a minimum wage retail worker.
The goal is to eliminate the store owner all together, so if you are worried about store owners making money off of cheap labor, that is going away.
We can go back to doing it Neil's way, restoring brick and mortar, but we just saw that that solution results in oil at $150/barrel. How many Neils can work retail and pay $150/barrel? Not many, and that is why we are not at $40/barrel, because we decided not to do brick and mortar.
The problem we have is dragging the Krugmans, Neils, Obamas and government services unions into the 21 century.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 1:13 PM | PERMALINK
At the bottom of this is the concept of diversification.The big box stores have cut the small town business base completely out of the picture. Now, when the clone stores fail, they take jobs and access to stuff with them.- Geez, I get so tired of the urban young with their notebook solutions. Most citizens don't have computers. For those that do, forget the high cost broadband, they have dial-up at best.- If there had been more small businesses, supplying small towns with the needed goods, the nightmare that may occur wouldn't even be a consideration. Face it, and get on with it. The business and social construct of the last two decades has collapsed. This has created allot of new business opportunities. Stop waiting for this to pass (it won't) and get on to some new creative solutions that work. What's coming may be a better world, as long as we don't think in an ego centric and insular way. That's what caused the mess were in.
Posted by: peter pumpkineater on December 28, 2008 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
tell me, Matt: are you having your fruit delivered? Your tomatoes? Your flour? Your soda? Your rice? Your bread? Your dogfood? How about fresh chicken, get that left on the doorstop in the summer? Maybe you have the concierge sign for them? Or is your wife home all day?
Posted by: Northzax on December 28, 2008 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK
I can give you another example, ignoring the sarcasm of Northzax.
In Fresno CA, we have a brick and mortar building called the county courthouse. Someone had a reasonable idea of putting up a web site to explain the procedures for traffic court. They ask if this web site helped at all, and one look out the window of the brick and mortar courthouse you can see a four hour long line around the block. The web site provided no help at all, unless you plead guilty and pay online.
Why haven't the judges, sitting in front of their computers, put two and two together and perform preliminary case review online?
One might say that we do not have enough brick and mortar, one might say we need to use digital better. But currently, it is cheaper to buy a cheap unregistered car and use it until it is impounded, then get another. That solution is more efficient than the day long tie up with court queue. And that solution is quite common, among Fresno residents, just bypass the court system entirely.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
So true, America is grossly "over-retailered," some shakeout is unavoidable.
Posted by: Peter on December 28, 2008 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK
The retail distribution system in this country is dependent on automobile travel -- you drive to the big store, load up your big car, carry your stuff home and stash it in your big house.
If the country were not auto-centric, distribution would look much different---small, local shops, to which you go to daily or several times a week, buy small quantities at a time, carry back to your small flat or small house.
The underlying problem has been sprawl, driven by 50 years of cheap gas. The latest complication is a construction industry that did not read the signs of the times and continued to build. However, many projects currently underway have been committed to long before the economy went south. So in some respects, commercial real estate got caught up short. On the other hand, these are people who are supposed to understand that markets are cyclical.
What we are facing now is a massive reordering of assumptions. When your economy is based on getting people to buy crap they don't need, it's inevitable that in a downturn, people will cut back and stop buying crap they don't need in favor of stuff they do need.
Grocery stores are not going out of business. Linens n' Things, Bennigan's, and other big chains that sell things people can do without -- at least for a while-- will have a hard time.
The current paradigm has been driven by cheap gas -- and while the price has collapsed in the near term, indications are it will not stay this low for long. Can the U.S. economy adjust to a new paradigm -- of much lower disposable income, significantly more expensive costs of heating and transportation? We have a model for that. It's called Europe.
The old model of the suburb is not going to be sustainable in the long run. Property values will fall in outlying areas, rise in the inner cities and you'll see a complete flip in the next 20 years, with the poorer populations forced further and further out from the city center, and the wealthier populations moving in, rehabbing, and adjusting to city life again.
Posted by: harpo on December 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK
And the Great Bush Depression rolls on...
Don't worry thought - I'm sure the Republicans will try to make it illegal for people that have lost their jobs to vote.
Posted by: Glen on December 28, 2008 at 2:13 PM | PERMALINK
Meanwhile, Amazon.com, had their best year ever. This is further strain on the digital divide. People with computers and internet access will be able to get what they want, while poorer inner city neighborhoods get nudged closer to the 3rd world.
Posted by: JoeW on December 28, 2008 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK
I'm sure the Republicans will try to make it illegal for people that have lost their jobs to vote.
Or debtor prisons. Then we can compete with Chinese labor.
Posted by: Danp on December 28, 2008 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK
As there is a trail of bankruptcies, so there is a trail of the unemployed. A very sad story!
But until people are able to get jobs, hear this--the country goes nowhere economically.
Waiting to see what happens. Truly hoping whatever steps are taken by our economic 'czars' will mean-- collectively we move forward. Short of that, anyone can fill in the blanks. www.vernasmith.com
Posted by: Travis on December 28, 2008 at 2:25 PM | PERMALINK
this depression may make the last one seem pleasant.
Posted by: nam vet on December 28, 2008 at 2:26 PM | PERMALINK
It's not just fresh food... I don't buy my clothing on the Internet either, because I like to be able to try my clothes on, to make sure they fit properly. Because, due to the -- ever increasing -- shipping and handling charges, returning something when it doesn't fit, or doesn't look quite like the photo, or is generally of poorer quality than advertised, makes the total cost prohibitive. Also, the same shipping/handling charges can, on small items, run higher than the item itself. So I won't order such small items, either.
Shopping on the Internet is a long way from a universal paradise, even if you do have access to it and are willing to shop that way. My husband refuses to, because he won't give them his credit card number and, paying by check, loses any advantage of speed while still having all the disadvantages mentioned above (fit, high shipping charges, etc)
Posted by: exlibra on December 28, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
"...says Neil, which is why he must be a minimum wage retail worker."
Nice.
And then Peter claiming the *shake-out* is inevitable. Shake-out. Quaint.
Suddenly I fully comprehend the term liberal elite.
For you, Matt, and all the rest of the blithering class above, here's a place you can pay off your guilt debt: Six Degrees. Online even.
You never have to see the queues.
Posted by: MissMudd on December 28, 2008 at 2:34 PM | PERMALINK
Shopping on line requires a computer, internet access and a credit card. Credit ratings are plunging as people get laid off, lose their homes.
Let them shop on line sounds like our equivalent of let them eat cake.
Posted by: jen f on December 28, 2008 at 2:41 PM | PERMALINK
"Shopping on the Internet is a long way from a universal paradise"
It doesn't need to be commonplace for it to have its effect, shopping online is efficient for many goods and people that it increasingly makes the old system less viable.
Even when we just search things online, those clicks get translated into movements of inventory which you cause but are unaware. So a traditional brick and mortar, like JC Penny, increasingly has its inventory determined by google clicks, so in a sense we already shop online even though we often let the web sites compute the shipping via third parties.
The effect is the same. We can use the internet directly or indirectly, but each time the inventory magically arrives at the retail distributor right when we expect it, and that is putting enormous strain on an old style shipping system.
The required infrastructure favors more efficienct goods shipping, and smaller personal vehicles, possibly even separating the two on the road system with separate traffic corridors.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 2:57 PM | PERMALINK
The required infrastructure favors more efficenct goods shipping, and smaller personal vehicles, possibly even separating the two on the road system with separate traffic corridors.
Posted by: MattYoung on December 28, 2008 at 2:57 PM |
Your ideas, sound and correct as they are, are of the old economic model. The trickle down theory isn't working anymore. The masses didn't have disposable income before and now they have less, if that is possible. This is what the concentration of wealth for a few has brought us. The wealthy may retire to the urban city state and watch from their high rise condo balconies as the suburbs in the distance crumble, but it will be at a high price of security. If the old ideas are expected to serve the futuristic nightmare that has now arrived, we're all in bigger trouble than it presently appears. Maybe the new economic stimulus could be to replace the old ways into the city centers with drawbridges.
Posted by: peter pumpkineater on December 28, 2008 at 4:36 PM | PERMALINK
Matt,
I am not so sure about your bullishness for on-line shopping. It does sound like the modern version of "let them eat cake."
I will suggest that lots and lots of office jobs can now be done from home. My accountant has opted to work from home. It has worked well for him. Moving home has also worked out well for our patent and trademark attorney.
My wife and I had a debate the other day. Should we close down our small law office and work from home or should we continue maintaining an office we really don't need for maximum efficiency? I argued that, because of the nature of our practice, we wouldn't lose any clients if we shut down the office. We would just make more money. My wife wisely fears becoming isolated in our home office. We both like interacting with real live people. My wife won, for now.
The point of all of this is that I read a survey indicating that the high price of gasoline last summer convinced a lot of people that they don't have to go to the office everyday. Many can work from home using their cell phones and laptop computers. That is what a lot of folks are doing.
I am not sure that what is going on right now isn't a complete reordering of work to reflect the new communications reality. We need to make sure that the changes are as broad as they are deep. We need to make sure that everybody benefits and everybody can make a living.
Posted by: Ron Byers on December 28, 2008 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK
I'm not sure where is this talk is going!
People tend to think the poor cannot survive. The poor will do whatever it takes to get ahead. For instance, selling drugs.
More and more people have been using drugs over the past 8 years. Why do you think the cartels coming from Mexico are getting more bold. Mexican officials said that the U.S. is the biggest consumer, and until the U.S. stop consuming, it will stop the flow of drugs into this country.
As far as retail, other than food staples & medicine - does it make sense for people to continue buying clothing if they have nowhere to go? I have clothing that still have price tags on it, as well, I'm sure lots of people have clothing they've never worn.
All it is, another scam, bailout so these greedy Corporations can walk away with taxpayer dollars.
After all that's what the free market did, only the strong will survive. They wanted cheap labor, they got it. They have no business blaming American citizens. They told us (citizens), they have a right to feed their families - well, that's exactly what the illegal immigrants are doing, feeding their families, remitting most of the money they make here to their native countries.
The retailers are in the wrong business - maybe they should have gotten into the business of Money Transfers.
After all, Americans are resourceful. We can take a pair of jeans and cut up to make a new pair of jeans like they did in the 80's. We can buy through QVC, online, catalog, thrift stores, where there's a will there's a way.
The retailers are trying to play psychological warfare with people who are addicted to shopping. Yet, they have all been trying to lower wages, dismantle union-workers - why gee, I guess that's what happens when you bite the hand that feeds you.
Posted by: annjell on December 28, 2008 at 7:08 PM | PERMALINK
I guess the American people can get ready to go on the barter system - since there won't be any money - be prepared to offered goods in exchange of services...
Didn't you hear, there are states trying to sell parks & roads - something all taxpayers paid for, did they get the taxpayers permission to sell these assets?
Posted by: annjell on December 28, 2008 at 7:54 PM | PERMALINK
I think MattYoung got mixed up about my point anyway, he could have read more carefully: I didn't mean we should keep building more and more B&M joints, I said we should have a managed transition instead of a bubble and bust process. And no I don't work retail. Read!
Posted by: Neil B ☺ on December 28, 2008 at 8:38 PM | PERMALINK
Huge numbers of retail store bankruptcies will cause a rapid increase in unemployment rolls as companies going bankrupt or facing bankruptcy layoff a whole lot of workers...which will lead to huge numbers of personal bankruptcies, dramatically shrinking the purchasing power of many citizens...which will in turn put significant downward pressure on the profits of the remaining retail stores...who will then layoff workers in an attempt to offset the reduced revenue in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy...which in turn will swell unemployment ranks even more...well, you get the picture.
We all know by now that the lame-duck Bush administration is incapable, both intellectually and morally, of stopping this downward spiral into another Great Depression.
As "cash flow" froze several months ago, the Republican answer was to throw hundreds of billions of dollars at the topmost tiers of high finance, blowing off any bottom-up solution. Home foreclosures continued to go through the roof, with the next (obvious) stage being retail stores going bankrupt, which can only lead to more unemployed and further foreclosures...a vicious economic cycle that could have been nipped in the bud but only if someone with a non-Hooverite mentality had been in charge.
1) Income tax rates on America's wealthiest should be immediately raised to pre-Reagan levels.
2) Of the $700 Billion already allocated for bailing out bankrupt or going bankrupt institutions, much of the remaining half ($350 Billion) should be proportionally distributed among the states, with more going to more populous states and less going to shore-up state budgets in less populous states, with a hefty portion of this bail-out money going to state governments used for unemployment insurance, with any restrictions on the awarding of unemployment insurance being loosened.
3) Anti-trust laws should be rigorously enforced...because the economic predators responsible for this economic crisis will no doubt continue preying on our economy and U.S. workers. It's hard to teach rabid Republican dogs new tricks, so predation will continue unless these rabid dogs are muzzled.
These are just several emergency measures that might stop this vicious bankruptcy-unemployment-bankruptcy-unemployment cycle, but with so many conservatives running Washington, both in the Republican and Democratic parties, we can expect the Republicans (especially those in the Senate) blocking any attempts to enact a bottom-up solution.
In other words, America's "cash flow" problem will only ease when more money makes its way into the hands of people at the bottom, who will spend it, at local retail stores, who will deposit these revenues in banks, which will strengthen local economies, which will strengthen state economies, which will strengthen our nation's economy...but only if more money makes its way immediately into the hands of American workers, both union and non-union...NOW!!!
We already know what the corrupt and evil Republican response is, based on what they've done over the past three months (actually the past eight years), but I'm hoping and praying that President Barack Obama will have more sense, who will not completely forget the corporate fat-cats (even though they've already received close to $350 Billion in unmarked bills), but will realize that any solution to our nation's economic distress must start from the bottom...and flow upward. No more of this insane voodoo Reaganomics trickle-down crap...it will only make matters worse.
Posted by: The Oracle on December 28, 2008 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK
I'm not happy to see retailers go bankrupt and throw people out of work, but really, I had almost stopped going to malls long before the current financial crisis hit. Why? I either can't find clothing styles that suit me, or what I do find isn't worth the price. If I wait awhile, I can often find the same offerings at an outlet store for a much better price. Some retailers are simply marking up their merchandise too much - customers aren't going to spend $100 on a sweater at Talbot's when it's only worth $40. Some of their problems they've brought on themselves.
Posted by: damselfly1213 on December 28, 2008 at 9:30 PM | PERMALINK
Meanwhile, Amazon.com, had their best year ever.
Posted by: JoeW on December 28, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Amazon.com's 'best year ever' should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt...see here (http://www.slate.com/id/2207537/) for an eye-opening discussion.
Posted by: Dictynna on December 28, 2008 at 9:56 PM | PERMALINK
I'm not sure why people are concerned about these mega corporations going under. No, I'm not being sarcastic. The point I'm making, it's time for the small business, mom & pop venues to come back - people who care about the community and their country. These mega corps only want to ship jobs overseas.
I criticize the big business because they are supposed to be the brains of our country - yet, they are the cause.
Remember when people were able to ASSUME a home loan? Thanks to unfair business practices & greed, the lenders would rather foreclose and screw up a person's credit rather than letting someone who could clearly take over the mortgage payments and reduce the rate of foreclosures.
And no, I am not for people losing their jobs. But people have lost their jobs anyway, and the greed facing our country guarantees more will lose jobs.
The GOP is still pushing trade agreement deals for Panama & Columbia. First off, I would like to say, why would they push these deals when they have 2 territories in the caribbean - Puerto Rico & the U.S. Virgin Islands. ***the U.S. purchased the Virgin Islands to have greater access to the Panama Canal.
In Puerto Rico, but more so in the U.S. Virgin Islands you have homes/neighborhoods that look like the shanty towns of Haiti! So, is that why when American citizens visit Puerto Rico, U.S.V.I. & the state of Hawaii we're not truly welcome?
Posted by: annjell on December 28, 2008 at 11:11 PM | PERMALINK
I know I didn't mention anything about Guam - that's because, a lot of mainlanders visit Guam, just like not many visit the U.S.V.I.
Posted by: annjell on December 28, 2008 at 11:15 PM | PERMALINK
tell me, Matt: are you having your fruit delivered? Your tomatoes? Your flour? Your soda? Your rice? Your bread? Your dogfood? How about fresh chicken, get that left on the doorstop in the summer? Maybe you have the concierge sign for them? Or is your wife home all day?
Posted by: gttim on December 29, 2008 at 9:25 AM | PERMALINK
Well, that sucks. All of my comment failed. I must of goofed.
I know people who have fruit delivered on a monthly or weekly basis. My sister has a butcher deliver packages to her door when needed. It is all usually very high quality. I order as much stuff as I can by the internet.
The brick and mortar stores suck now. Most decent stores have been destroyed by big box. I cannot find CD's I like locally. I have to order from Amazon. I could not find William Ayers book anywhere in a brick and mortar. I hate buying most electronics because I always have to battle low paid, low information dales people to buy, and they only care about selling extended warranties. I bought my car, financed it and purchased insurance all on the internet.
When I find local stores with knowledgeable staff that care about what I want, I frequent their establishment. I rarely find those, however.
Posted by: gttim on December 29, 2008 at 9:46 AM | PERMALINK
When I find local stores with knowledgeable staff that care about what I want, I frequent their establishment. I rarely find those, however.
Posted by: gttim on December 29, 2008 at 9:46 AM |
The internet is like one big store with one big door. There is no backup and the whole thing is cobbled together. I love it, but I wouldn't put all my hopes on it because it is too fragile. It is made of glass and there allot of people with clubs walking around. The internet needs a backup system, a sub-support system of distribution so if anything goes wrong we can still get what we need. America is so vulnerable now, I hope Obama really can walk on water.
Posted by: peter pumpkineater on December 29, 2008 at 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
just to throw a little math into this: one-fourth of retailers is not the same as one-fourth of the stores in the mall
Posted by: fdggr on December 29, 2008 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK
They call it black Friday because that is the first time retailers really go in the black all year.
No, "Black Friday" was originally the name given to it by the Philadelphia Police Department because of the traffic and other headaches it caused, and the name stuck. The idea that it is so known because it is the first day retailers go into the black is a bit of folk etymology which is neither true as an origin of the term, nor is the idea true even without being the origin of the term.
Posted by: cmdicely on December 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM | PERMALINK
I've owned a retail business for over 25 years. I hope I can say the same thing a year from now. I love MattYoung and his naive belief that the internet can deliver all human needs. He must be an engineer, with the engineer-ish black/white, on/off view of all things human. And the elevation of efficiency as the supreme goal in life. I would have loved to see his reaction to the invention of the telephone..."In the future, everything will be done on the telephone".
Sure, web retailing can deliver many things, as long as those things are commodities. A book is the same book no matter where you buy it, so is software. But what about things you need to touch, feel, try on, see, have explained, etc? What if your web purchase is defective or you don't like it? What if you can't figure out how to use it? What if you enjoy the human experience of shopping with friends? And finally, what if you believe in supporting local retailers who put their money back in the local economy? Amazon does not do that, unless you live in Seattle.
Posted by: jrw on December 29, 2008 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK
But what about things you need to touch, feel, try on, see, have explained, etc?
The touch, feel, try on, and see part are well covered by a generous return policy (successful shoe and clothing retailers online go this way.)
What if your web purchase is defective or you don't like it?
As with B&M shops, the issue here is one of return policy. Plenty of web shops have generous policies here, plenty of B&M shops have rather unfriendly policies in this area.
What if you can't figure out how to use it?
Some online shops provide instant contact with support agents. OTOH, most B&M shops are pretty horrible places to go for "how to use it" information.
What if you enjoy the human experience of shopping with friends?
Friends can shop online together as easily as they can do so in brick and mortar shops.
(Arguably, more easily; you can do the online equivalent of going into different stores, and still remain in direct proximity and contact.)
And finally, what if you believe in supporting local retailers who put their money back in the local economy?
Plenty of small, local businesses have web presences. Shopping online isn't restricted to shopping from giants like Amazon.com.
Posted by: cmdicely on December 29, 2008 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK
The touch, feel, try on, and see part are well covered by a generous return policy (successful shoe and clothing retailers online go this way.)
This is an incredibly expensive way to touch and feel, something you will be paying for, whether you see the cost or not. The costs of shipping something two ways for the pleasure of trying it out are not sustainable, economically and environmentally. What if you don't like your new sofa?
As with B&M shops, the issue here is one of return policy. Plenty of web shops have generous policies here, plenty of B&M shops have rather unfriendly policies in this area.
Ditto
Friends can shop online together as easily as they can do so in brick and mortar shops
Sorry, but this is weird. Being "together" on-line is the same as really being together? Do you apply this to other areas of life?
Some online shops provide instant contact with support agents. OTOH, most B&M shops are pretty horrible places to go for "how to use it" information.
"Some" and "most" will depend on where you choose to shop. Bad service is bad service, no matter where you get it. I think it's pretty hard to generalize between web and in-person retailing in this regard.
Plenty of small, local businesses have web presences. Shopping online isn't restricted to shopping from giants like Amazon.com
Sure, we do too. I'm not arguing against web retail, it obviously is a great thing. It's just not the simplistic panacea people like MattYoung think it is. There are costs, both in money, choice, convenience, with on-line shopping. They may vary from person to person, and product to product, but they're real.
Posted by: jrw on December 29, 2008 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK