Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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January 5, 2009

BUSH 45.... When George H. W. Bush, unprompted, brought up the subject of Jeb Bush running for president "someday," it generated quite a bit of attention, and more than a little mockery, It seemed most political observers realize one would have to be stark raving mad to think we should ever let another Bush near the White House for anything other than a tour.

Opinions were not, however, universal. Here's the National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez this morning (emphasis in the original):

Former President Bush (there's currently only one of those!) has endorsed his other governor-son for president. As we await David Paterson's Caroline Kennedy Senate appointment, I have to think that Jeb for President is not the craziest idea.

Jeb for President can't happen four years from now. But if Jeb Bush runs for the Martinez Senate seat and puts in some hard time there, voters might consider the presidential possibility, even if he would be a third Bush (the media is another story and might make a win impossible). The man is certainly qualified. He'll demonstrate that he is, nationally, if he spends time in the Senate. Again, it's just not the craziest idea, and people might come to agree that it's not two cycles down the road.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this kind of thinking became common in conservative circles. Why not give another Bush a try? Third time's the charm, right?

Sure, most voters recoil at the very mention of the president's last name, but if we assume Obama is going to be tough to beat 2012, maybe Jeb would be great in 2016. The party may not even have a choice -- Republicans haven't won a presidential election without a Bush on the ticket since 1972.

I'm certain most voters, when considering yet another Bush, would be more than willing to let bygones by bygones. Forgive and forget. Water over the levees under the bridge.

Riiiiiiight.

Steve Benen 12:40 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (52)
 
Comments

(there's currently only one of those!)

Oh snap! Good one, K-Lo!

Posted by: ed on January 5, 2009 at 12:42 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb vs Hillary in 2016. Blah.

Posted by: Ron E. on January 5, 2009 at 12:43 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, a majority of the delegates at the GOP Convention in St. Paul last year would probably have nominated George W. Bush for a third term if they could have. They'd certainly have rather done that than nominated John McCain.

So the idea of a third President Bush may sound....not so hot to the general public, but to the people who will nominate future Republican Presidential candidates it's exactly what they want.

Posted by: Zathras on January 5, 2009 at 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

To get elected President in 20xx, Jeb would have to do a lot of McCain like gymnastics.

The country is no longer amenable to his style of freemarket fundamentalism and anti-immigrant bashing. He would have to invent a form of populist personality, but any such invention will inflame the base - he won't be trusted (like McCain). Plus, while he's not a doofus, he's not that charismatic, and he's only getting older, with the bloom of his youth quickly passing.

That said, he is undoubtedly better-than-average timber given the sorry GOP bench. Who can bridge the fundies and the others?

Posted by: Frank C. on January 5, 2009 at 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

I'd like to say this is a laughable idea, but the stupidity of the American electorate is a vast resource; there may yet be untapped reserves.

Posted by: dob on January 5, 2009 at 12:48 PM | PERMALINK

I'd like to share your skepticism, and I agree that Obama will be hard to beat in 2012 --- especially by anyone named Bush or Palin.

But 8 years is a loooong time in politics, and I think there's no way we can predict what will and won't seem absurd (or reasonable) 8 years hence.

In 1964, could anyone have predicted a Republican (Richard Nixon, no less) would win in 1972 in a landslide? In 1972, could anyone have predicted Reagan's 1980 victory? In late 2001, could anyone have predicted that the son of a Kenyan Muslim, a man named Barack Hussein Obama, would win in 2008 and have near universal public support before he was even inaugurated? For that matter, could anyone have predicted in late 2001 that by 2008, the idea of another Bush running for president would be a laughable one?

I certainly hope we're done with Bushes forever, but there's no guarantee.

Posted by: David Bailey on January 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK

Let's change the constitution, and elect Malia Obama in '16. Genetically, she's great, and that's the important thing, right?

Posted by: Danp on January 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK

Not even for dog catcher!!!

Posted by: Tigershark on January 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK

As we await David Paterson's Caroline Kennedy Senate appointment, I have to think that Jeb for President is not the craziest idea.

Fucking hilarious. Let's see, a former president whose eldest son is currently president is hawking his next-oldest son to be a future president --- but the terminally obtuse think nepotism is a Democratic problem.

Posted by: Jay B. on January 5, 2009 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK

He could promise to nominate Sarah Palin as VP if nominated! It will be great!

And we thought our long national nightmare was overwith on Jan 20th...

Posted by: Atlliberal on January 5, 2009 at 12:52 PM | PERMALINK

This comment by the elder Bush really shows the thinness (even emptiness) of the Republican bench better than almost anything else lately.

In 2016 they will run someone not yet on the radar or they will lose yet again.

Posted by: Mimikatz on January 5, 2009 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb's got every bit as much chance as did Dubya. We can't yet predict the 2016 version of "Who would you rather have a beer with?".

Posted by: wishIwuz2 on January 5, 2009 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK
"I have to think that Jeb for President is not the craziest idea."

I'm thinking that K-Lo's bar for what constitutes 'crazy' is set pretty low to begin with...

Did someone just say that there's been a recession every time a Bush has been in the White House?

Posted by: grape_crush on January 5, 2009 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK

Poppy Bush reminds me of a gambler who, having lost his life savings, doubles down with the house, car and everything else in his possession, then loses them, too.

You are not going to redeem the Bush name, GHWB. Foisting another asshole son on us will make the family reputation worse, not better. There is no saving the Bushes from the ashheap of history. Suck it up.

Posted by: shortstop on January 5, 2009 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK

Don't underestimate the way politics work in this country, or the willingness of many here to collectively 'forget' their own history.

My biggest concern 2-3 years ago was that Jeb Bush would run for President in 2008. But his brother did such a bad job and is so despised for his administration's policies, that I think Jeb determined it would be wise to wait awhile.

Time and the state of the nation's ability to recover from its current economical, social, global, and environmental problems will determine whether people will collectively learn from past mistakes (i.e. electing right-wingers into public office).

The next eight years will probably be the most crucial in the US's history, and probably the world.

Posted by: Mathew on January 5, 2009 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb's not responsible for the sins of his father, or his brother.

But he represents the Republican Party, which after the last eight years should disqualify anyone and everyone for public service.

Posted by: Chris S. on January 5, 2009 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK

As I've said before, I think this is mostly just wishful thinking on Poppy's part. He must be in agony over Dubya's utter failure (you think he likes knowing that "Bush" will probably be synonymous with "Worst President Ever?") and holds out hope that Jeb, the "good son" who was originally supposed to be the one to win back the White House for the family, will somehow become President and redeem the family name.

Not gonna happen. Sorry, Poppy, but Dubya has destroyed your family name for all time. No Bush will ever get near the White House again, ever.

Posted by: gf120581 on January 5, 2009 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK

"I have to think that Jeb for President is not the craziest idea."

Given the nutters in the GOP, J-Lo's right -- it's _not_ the craziest idea. I'm sure we can all think of crazier ones -- Palin, Allen, Huckabee, Giuliani, etc, all of whom would probably be worse than Jeb.

(Which is not a complement to Jeb, given the weakness of the competition he has!)

Posted by: A DC Wonk on January 5, 2009 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK

There's little--if anything--to indicate Jeb will be better than his father and older brother. "More of the same," maybe worse. We don't need that.

Hopefully, he'll get caught down in Costa Rica on a Rush Limbaugh Little Boys of the World Tour 2010. That way we can put the Bushes out to pasture.

Posted by: Gang Green on January 5, 2009 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
But if Jeb Bush runs for the Martinez Senate seat and puts in some hard time there...
The entire family should serve some hard time, but not in the Senate. Posted by: JoeW on January 5, 2009 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK

Here's what I want to know.

Why in the name of god's green earth did Bush 39 let his son become president? Surely, *surely* he realized what a screw-up he was, his utter lack of qualifications for the the office. I mean, WTF?

Posted by: weichi on January 5, 2009 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

Of course, a bit will depend on whom *we* put up in the race in '16, won't it?

Posted by: exlibra on January 5, 2009 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK

Eight years of Obama may well open hiuge floodgates of money for a third Bush likely to undermine all the sensible regulations that may be put in place until then.

The advertising blitz will be a trememndous help towards selling people on the idea that THIS Bush will be different somehow.

Lord knows if we're counting on American voters' long term memory... *cringe* You have far more confidence in their judgement than I.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on January 5, 2009 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

I would like to think that it would take much longer than 8 years for a majority to find a Bush, any Bush, electable.

The "water over the levees" comment reminded me of a bumper sticker I saw Saturday:

"I drove my Chevy to the levee and the levee was gone."

Posted by: LP on January 5, 2009 at 1:56 PM | PERMALINK

Why in the name of god's green earth did Bush 39 let his son become president? Surely, *surely* he realized what a screw-up he was, his utter lack of qualifications for the the office.

I wish we'd stop assigning a nonexistent morality to Bush pere. Just because his own presidency didn't begin to approach the disaster his son wrought doesn't mean he wasn't an energetic participant in making round 2 happen. The Bushes and their circle aren't interested in qualifications or competence. They're interested in the further amassment of power, money and control. Dubya was the fastest means to that not just for Bushco, but for the GOP in general: he managed to appeal to the religious right, neocons and the business wing of the party. He was a perfect storm the likes of which the GOP will not be able to replicate, although Jeb has cred, to varying degrees, with all three of those groups.

Poppy may be embarrassed at just how badly Junior turned out, but ask him if he'd do it all over again knowing his son would do what he did. He'd look at you wondering where you came up with such a stupid question.

Posted by: shortstop on January 5, 2009 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb signed on to the PNAC at the outset. 'Nuff said.

Posted by: G.Kerby on January 5, 2009 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

As I've said before, I think this is mostly just wishful thinking on Poppy's part. He must be in agony over Dubya's utter failure (you think he likes knowing that "Bush" will probably be synonymous with "Worst President Ever?") and holds out hope that Jeb, the "good son" who was originally supposed to be the one to win back the White House for the family, will somehow become President and redeem the family name.

Exactly. If no one else pops up in the intervening 4 or 8 years, Jeb may well run since there won't be anyone else, but I don't think he's going to get very far. Who knows, though -- as others have pointed out, party politics change pretty quickly.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 5, 2009 at 1:59 PM | PERMALINK

Well, if we put ideology aside for a moment, it ISN'T the craziest idea. Sarah Palin was just a candidate for Vice-President, remember.

Jeb Bush is popular with conservatives, popular in Florida, and more competent for public office than George W. With a Senate seat to introduce himself to a national audience, Jeb could indeed make a credible candidate. Not one I will support, mind you, but credible.

Posted by: Algernon on January 5, 2009 at 2:08 PM | PERMALINK

The party that got behind Sarah Palin, for God's sake, will easily get behind Jeb Bush. If history is any sort of indicator, the economy, our standing in the world, quality of life, etc. will be improved by a Democrat president. But, the government will be reaping money that could just as easily go into corporate pockets. Conservatives will try to drum up some distrust for Democrats, probably around security issues and gay rights. And presto, we've got ourselves a Bush candidacy.

I believe the best way to combat this is by running Mark Warner in 2016. He's moderate and business people trust him. He'll be hard for the conservative smear machine to touch. And he's a nice guy.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: chrenson on January 5, 2009 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK

Not only have the GOP not won the presidency without a Bush on the ticket since 1972, they have not won the presidency without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket since 1928! Talk about a shallow bench.

Posted by: dave on January 5, 2009 at 2:12 PM | PERMALINK

Republicans haven't won a presidential election without Nixon or a Bush on the ticket since 1928.

Posted by: anandine on January 5, 2009 at 2:13 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, Jeb,(and Kathleen Harris), had a lot to do with helping get his bro,#43, elected. remember the voting rolls purge? This will always be a constant reminder, a particle left hanging- like a chad - to his electability.

I was thinking Jenna Bush in 2016. She'll have acquired the age needed (35) on 11/25/16, and she also has the requisite vagina necessary for the New Empowered Conservative Palin era Repubs.
A win - win for established Dynasty enthusiasts!

Posted by: maya on January 5, 2009 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry, Dave, we were typing at the same time.

Posted by: anandine on January 5, 2009 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

IF GHWB thought JEB was qualified, why didn't he endorse him in 2000 instead of that idiot he did endorse?

Posted by: freelunch on January 5, 2009 at 2:24 PM | PERMALINK

Who knows, though -- as others have pointed out, party politics change pretty quickly.

Which explains why Claude Hoover, Herbert's younger brother, had such a successful presidency in the 50's . . .

Posted by: rea on January 5, 2009 at 2:29 PM | PERMALINK

The mere thought of Jeb being the 45th President should be grounds for immediately repealing the 22nd Amendment, thereby allowing Obama to become Caesar for Life*.

*...you may now enjoy the idea of watching Rush Limbaugh explode like Mr. Creosote....

Posted by: Steve W. on January 5, 2009 at 2:44 PM | PERMALINK

I don't know, if the Bushies keep pushing their Legacy Project, and media outlets keep letting them wrote op-eds and go on television and re-write history without challenge, by 2016 we'll all beleive that the Bush/Cheney administration was the golden age of Murican acendancy.

Luke Russert will be on NBC breatlessly, but solemnly declaring that Bush 43 was the greatest president since Ronald Reagan, who was the greatest president ever by the way. And, Jeb Bush is the rightful heir to the Bush Legacy and only he can appeal to the "Bush Democrats."

Posted by: Winkandanod on January 5, 2009 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK

All Jeb needs to do over the next couple of years is make a couple of stump speeches about outlawing abortion and/or contraception, mock anyone who has above an 8th grade reading level, and have himself photographed posing at some gun range with an assault rifle, and he'll have the GOP nomination sewed up.

The New GOP: More Power Through Better Pandering.

Posted by: jonas on January 5, 2009 at 2:56 PM | PERMALINK


"Not gonna happen. Sorry, Poppy, but Dubya has destroyed your family name for all time. No Bush will ever get near the White House again, ever."

It's not just the - family - name that's been screwed. What has to be the most painful realisation for GHWB is that, in a hundred years time, the only 'George Bush' anyone will remember is his idiot son. The best he can hope for is to be an obscure Politics question in Holographic Trivial Pursuit that no one gets.

Heh.

Posted by: Tony J on January 5, 2009 at 3:00 PM | PERMALINK

Republicans haven't won a presidential election without a Bush on the ticket since 1972.

I really hate comments like that one, which is a gross abuse of the statistics of extremely small numbers.

Posted by: Jinchi on January 5, 2009 at 3:05 PM | PERMALINK

I followed Florida politics but lightly during Jeb's term. I vaguely recall a multitude of questionable relationships, decisions and alleged quid pro quos. Jeb likely owns a large mansion comprised of nothing but closets. Each chock full of skeletons. Let him run. Unfortunately the media's 2016 version of Dan Rather will be offered up in sacrifice for exposing the criminality, driven from the anchor desk for dreaming it all up or shoddy fact checking. This despite his/her reporting bringing to light what everyone in the room already knew to be true.

Posted by: steve duncan on January 5, 2009 at 3:52 PM | PERMALINK

Zathras wrote: Actually, a majority of the delegates at the GOP Convention in St. Paul last year would probably have nominated George W. Bush for a third term if they could have.

Which is yet another reason why the Republicans will, and utterly deserve to, spend a generation in the political wilderness.

Posted by: Gregory on January 5, 2009 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

Kathryn Jean Lopez. Lopez, Lopez. Free association. Miami, Jeb, third world, illegal aliens. No wonder.

Posted by: Luther on January 5, 2009 at 4:57 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb, very possible. I predicted it (for 2008) in 2004.

But, I am looking forward to Barbara & Jenna.
Together - as Pres & VP.

What year are they eligible ?

Posted by: Rich on January 5, 2009 at 5:36 PM | PERMALINK

While Jeb isn't responsible for the sins of his father or brother, he is responsible for a host of his own sins. If you want to see what his presidency would be like, check out how he has been trying to destroy the state/religion barrier and use Florida taxes to support religious schools. What is even worse is HOW he has been going about undermining the Florida constitution.

There is, of course, the possibility that in eight years he could be running for president given that, at the moment, there is no one else in the Republican party with the requisite number of functional cerebral synapses. However, it is also possible that somehow someone will appear who appeals to the famous base. Maybe Huckabee will somehow acquire gravitas and shed his kook persona. The same for Palin. And how old will Lieberman be in eight years? Think of that, running on the ticket for both political parties!

Posted by: Texas Aggie on January 5, 2009 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK

Jeb Bush may have the GOP nomination in 2016 sewn up for no other reason than that he will have the money men sewn up. And I can think of no other figure in the GOP who can heal the fracture between social conservatives and free market libertarians.

But remember that a major reason for Obama's victory in the Democratic primaries was that the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton sequence stank of dynastic politics and entrenched ruling elites. That turned a lot of voters off. Which happens to be Caroline Kennedy's major problem right now. Bush may be the GOP nominee but he will go down in flames in the general.

Posted by: Charles Warren on January 5, 2009 at 7:47 PM | PERMALINK

Tony J says: It's not just the - family - name that's been screwed. What has to be the most painful realisation for GHWB is that, in a hundred years time, the only 'George Bush' anyone will remember is his idiot son.

They will need to wait for the current voter pool to die before they can successfully run another Bushnut. Bush 2078, perhaps?

Posted by: CParis on January 5, 2009 at 8:17 PM | PERMALINK

It won't happen. Neil will stand up at Poppy's funeral in 2013 and claim the family mantle and announce his candidacy. Jeb will shout "I already had one lame-brain brother beat me out of that job and I'm not about to let another one do the same thing." He tackles Neil and starts choking him. When he's finally pulled aside by Jenna and Barbara it's almost too late for Neil. Left in a comatose state, Neil wins the Republican nomination in a landslide, with W getting the nod for VP.

Posted by: tomeck on January 5, 2009 at 8:38 PM | PERMALINK

This country needs a hedge clipper.

Posted by: Paul J. Camp on January 5, 2009 at 10:21 PM | PERMALINK

Is Ma Bush dead yet, Barbara the Elder? Wheel her out and giver her a shot at it, whaddya say? First woman president, AND a Republican!!!

Posted by: Mark on January 6, 2009 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK

That would be fun. I can only encourage the thugs to put another bush as their nominee. If they think that is the winning formula, then far be it from me to discourage them. Bring im on!

Posted by: Patrick on January 6, 2009 at 8:50 AM | PERMALINK

I think I would puke.

Posted by: purplehawk on January 6, 2009 at 6:42 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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