January 8, 2009
No, Blacks Did Not Destroy Gay Marriage
Finally, we have a good analysis (pdf) of the levels of African-American support for Proposition 8. Guess what? It probably wasn't nearly as high as the exit polls suggested:
"Surveys conducted just before and just after Election Day found much smaller differences in support for Proposition 8 between African Americans and voters as a whole than did the NEP exit poll. The NEP result should thus be treated as an outlier that overstates black support for Proposition 8." (p. 9)
That's higher than Californians as a whole, but:
"As shown in Figure 4, African Americans are more religious (as measured by frequency of attendance at religious services) than any other racial or ethnic group of California voters. (...) As shown in Figure 5, controlling for frequency of religious attendance helps explain why African Americans supported Proposition 8 at higher levels than the population as a whole. Among Californians who attend worship at least weekly, support for Proposition 8 was nearly uniform across all racial and ethnic groups. Among those who attend worship less than weekly, majorities of every racial and ethnic group voted "no" on Proposition 8. The differences that remain among groups are not statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence."
So despite all the brouhaha after the election, it turns out that African-Americans' level of support for Prop 8 was not as high as reported, and is moreover almost entirely explained by their levels of church attendance.
Ta-Nehisi Coates, is mad, as well he should be. I am too. Obviously, even one homophobe, whether white, black, Latino, Asian, Pacific Islander, or Martian, is one too many. But so is one person who blames blacks for the passage of Proposition 8 before the facts are in. Ta-Nehisi:
"There are people in my business who took to the highest hills to decry the betrayal of black Californians, and to this day, are giddily noting that blacks sunk marriage equality in California, who foist the failure of marriage equality on seven percent of the electorate . I will not speculate on their motives. But let's see how loudly they address this study. Let's see how much ink we see spilled revisiting those assumptions. Or will it be on to the next calamity, where the blacks--or the Arabs, or the Latinos--can be trotted out and blamed for the failings of others. For the failings of us all."
—Hilzoy 10:13 PM
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I didn't believe for one minute that blacks was the cause of prop 8 passing.
I talked to some of my black friends and none of them supported this measure.
All along I said that I thought this was a way for the GOP to further divide this country. And as an Orange County, Cali resident, this has been one of their doings for the past eight years. That is one of the reasons I am now a democrat.
When you take in consideration of what's happening in the African continent, Gaza, then look back at hurricane Katrina, it's no surprise what the GOP is doing.
Posted by: annjell on January 8, 2009 at 11:09 PM | PERMALINK
Don't just randomly insert commas after nouns in sentences.
"Ta-Nehisi Coates, is mad, as well he should be." should read "Ta-Nehisi Coates is mad, as well he should be."
Posted by: steve s on January 8, 2009 at 11:17 PM | PERMALINK
Of course blacks certainly helped. Both blacks and Latinos voted almost 60% for Prop 8. While "lower than the polls" you can't spin this to somehow ignore the facts that they were a significant force in it's passing.
Posted by: kicker on January 9, 2009 at 12:06 AM | PERMALINK
Speaking as a Californian who was subjected to the ads on Proposition 8 I can tell you that one big reason it passed was that the campaign opposing it stank on ice. The pro-8 side had lots of advertising that was slick, deceptive and stayed on-message. The anti-8 side was scattershot, not compelling unless you already agreed, and relied on personalities. They lost the fight because the other side ran a better campaign.
Posted by: Reverend Dennis on January 9, 2009 at 12:11 AM | PERMALINK
Okay, maybe, but poor people still caused the economy to collapse. ;)
Posted by: tomj on January 9, 2009 at 12:13 AM | PERMALINK
I personally never understood how a minority could be blamed to have a majority of the votes on any propositon. The blame lies solely with those who fear anything different then they are, minority or majority.
Posted by: pensy on January 9, 2009 at 12:15 AM | PERMALINK
Well, clearly the blame lays with the church goers..
Posted by: Andy on January 9, 2009 at 12:50 AM | PERMALINK
It's those white males again. I try not to be racist, but....
Posted by: luther on January 9, 2009 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK
A lot of gay white men are racists, sorry to say. (Gay voters were one of the few demographic groups with whom Obama did worse than John Kerry did.) They say a chance to scapegoat blacks and they took it.
Posted by: jeebus on January 9, 2009 at 1:23 AM | PERMALINK
kicker
I know you want to hold on to your "teh blacks did it" meme but its a matter of pretty simple math
Blacks only make up 7 percent of the population in California. That means that 60 percent of black folks WHO ACTUALLY VOTED which would push the number lower than 7 percent would equal about 3-4 percent of the electorate.
Now if you REALLY think 3-4 percent of the electorate was a "significant force" for Prop 8's passing I don't know what to tell you other than they have some pretty good GED courses online. At least thats what I hear.
If you go to Coates' blog you will see that he acknowledges that homophobia IS a problem in the black community but blaming them for passing prop 8 when they clearly were not much of a factor is what most people would call the opposite of productive when it comes to changing that mentality.
Posted by: sgwhiteinfla on January 9, 2009 at 1:25 AM | PERMALINK
Look, when all is said and done, California -- despite its hippy-dippy reputation -- is a fairly moderate-to-conservative state with a powerful religious conservative voter bloc. Fact is, Prop 8 lost by a small margin in a very purple state. Gay rights are mainstream in Santa Monica or San Francisco, but the topic still causes people in Bakersfield to shift a little uneasily in their seats. And I'll second what a couple of others have said: the No on 8 campaign was eye-rollingly lame. They simply lined up a bunch of celebrities who weren't even allowed to say the word "gay" during their pitches. The grass roots GOTV effort among the pro-8ers was unprecedented as well. Trying to pin this on African American voters was always unfair.
Posted by: jonas on January 9, 2009 at 2:28 AM | PERMALINK
Gay rights are also mainstream in West Hollywood, Cali.
However, people fail to mention that this is mainstream in the jails and prisons. Here, even heterosexuals engage whether voluntarily or forcefully.
Posted by: annjell on January 9, 2009 at 3:17 AM | PERMALINK
ha ha, that final paragraph is exquisite.
What a bunch of hysterical drama queens.
Posted by: a on January 9, 2009 at 3:53 AM | PERMALINK
Everybody in Los Angeles knows that it was all the fault of Mormon outside agitators.
You have to feel sorry for the poor villagers of Studio City whose indigenous folkways are under constant mass media assault from all those rich city slickers in Provo. Mormons grow up knowing all about how to make snazzy TV commercials, while the innocent Studio Citians only learn from their elders how to communicate via smoke signals and notches carved in tree trunks by the side of the trail.
Posted by: Steve Sailer on January 9, 2009 at 5:14 AM | PERMALINK
Does this then mean that white evangelical christians didn't cause Prop 8 to fail? I'm sure their church attendance is even higher.
Posted by: rwrjr on January 9, 2009 at 7:42 AM | PERMALINK
Given the viciousness of the gay campaign to destroy the livelihoods and careers of those who voted to defend traditional marriage from radical cultural experiments, poll results in California must be taken with a grain of salt. It can be very, very dangerous to say you voted for Prop 8. So I suspect polls will show a LOT more support for gay marriage than their actually is, thanks to the storm trooper intimidation tactics of the gay lobby.
Posted by: Charles Warren on January 9, 2009 at 7:51 AM | PERMALINK
African Americans are more religious (as measured by frequency of attendance at religious services) than any other racial or ethnic group of California voters.
The big argument against gay marriage is that it will destroy the institute of marriage somehow. But, is it not true that there are more black absentee fathers, more black single mothers, and more black men incarcerated than any other racial or ethnic group in California?
And if black people are the most religious in California, wouldn't this suggest that attending church services is more likely what's destroying the institute of marriage? I mean, on a purely empirical level? Especially when you consider that gay marriage was only legal for a short while and didn't seem to do that much damage.
Just sayin'...
Posted by: chrenson on January 9, 2009 at 7:56 AM | PERMALINK
Charles Warren: thanks to the storm trooper intimidation tactics of the gay lobby.
I'm sorry, Charles. I'm finding the notion of gay storm troopers to be pretty hilarious. If you want to sound even more like Rush Limbaugh [and it's obvious that you do] then use the word "gay-stapo" instead.
I'm giving you that one for free.
Posted by: chrenson on January 9, 2009 at 8:00 AM | PERMALINK
I'm sorry, Charles. I'm finding the notion of gay storm troopers to be pretty hilarious. If you want to sound even more like Rush Limbaugh [and it's obvious that you do] then use the word "gay-stapo" instead.
Don't you gays have campaigns to boycott establishments where people voted for traditional marriage just like storm troopers stood outside Jewish owned shops to "discourage" people from shopping there ? There is nothing funny about the bully boy tactics the homosexuals are using in California.
This "poll" is simply gays pretending that minorities are their allies. Notice how they never dared to try that harassment crap they did around Mormon churches to a Baptist church in a Black neighborhood or a Catholic church in a Hispanic neighborhood. It would not have been a healthy choice for them.
Posted by: Charles Warren on January 9, 2009 at 8:06 AM | PERMALINK
@jonas:
Look, when all is said and done, California -- despite its hippy-dippy reputation -- is a fairly moderate-to-conservative state with a powerful religious conservative voter bloc.
The further you go inland the more California is like "Children of the Corn" than it is like "Woodstock."
Posted by: Reverend Dennis on January 9, 2009 at 8:07 AM | PERMALINK
I find it ironic, and sad, that any minority group that has been fighting discrimination could vote for a proposition that discriminated against another group of people. Whether it be for religious or other reasons, blacks and Latinos did help pass this proposition. No black or Latino voter should have been voting for this proposition, and they certainly should now never, ever complain about discrimination themselves.
Posted by: gttim on January 9, 2009 at 8:12 AM | PERMALINK
annjell: Gay rights are also mainstream in West Hollywood, Cali.
However, people fail to mention that this is mainstream in the jails and prisons. Here, even heterosexuals engage whether voluntarily or forcefully.
You did not just say that.
Posted by: shortstop on January 9, 2009 at 8:17 AM | PERMALINK
Charles Warren: like storm troopers stood outside Jewish owned shops
I'm confused. Storm troopers stood outside Jewish-run shops as part of the Nazi's long struggle for equal rights for all people? Or is it that gays who are peaceably assembled in the freest nation in the world are doing so to foster discrimination against a specific ethnic group?
And the bigger question is: How do you type with your head so far up your ass?
Posted by: chrenson on January 9, 2009 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK
Don't you gays have campaigns to boycott establishments where people voted for traditional marriage just like storm troopers stood outside Jewish owned shops to "discourage" people from shopping there ?
"Just like" in what way? "Just like" as in you're charging that people are actually physically intimidating persons seeking to enter the shops of Prop 8 supporters--in which case you need to cite some solid evidence of this right now--or "just like" as in your hyperbolic mind is looking for some wholly unsupportable analogy and you're just making shit up?
I'm pretty sure it's the latter, in which case you need to understand that your freedom to be a bigot does not make you a victim when others exercise the freedom to withhold their dollars from you and encourage others to do the same.
Posted by: shortstop on January 9, 2009 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK
I too am confused about how boycotts are just like the Nazis. If exercising choice in a free market is the same as fascism, would a state-controlled economy then be the same as freedom?
Posted by: rabbit on January 9, 2009 at 8:39 AM | PERMALINK
Some people were able to be sane and wait for results, but some weren't. Considering they'd just been punched in the face by having their marriages rescinded by popular vote, I'd give some gays a little bit of a break for lashing out the day after it happened. Especially if they've cooled down since then and are back in thinking mode.
For those LGBT folks who have continued to point fingers at black voters, even after they've had time to move from sucker-punched back to rational, I can see why people are steamed at them.
Posted by: lupe on January 9, 2009 at 9:00 AM | PERMALINK
Beware, oh, Charles Warren - Oh, I really hope I placed those commas correctly - Rumor has it there are some in Laguna Beach, frantically, working on breaking through your e-mail address. However, funny thing about West Hollywood. If only more, formerly, blighted areas could be upscaled by the gay community. Having that community work with the older citizens of that misforgotten area of LA County to create a new city, has brought great prosperity to Melrose and Santa Monica Blvd. Steve S, please check the commas, please.
Posted by: berttheclock on January 9, 2009 at 9:09 AM | PERMALINK
"Don't you gays have campaigns to boycott establishments where people voted for traditional marriage just like storm troopers stood outside Jewish owned shops to "discourage" people from shopping there ?"
So, the Freedom Riders were a bunch of Nazis, also?
Posted by: 2Manchu on January 9, 2009 at 9:26 AM | PERMALINK
let's see how loudly they address this study.
Yes. What this study strongly suggests is that there was a highly organized and very active opposition to Prop 8 in the churches, probably led by activist (politically social Conservative(?)) Pastors.
No real surprise there.
Posted by: Rick B on January 9, 2009 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK
Speaking as a Californian who was subjected to the ads on Proposition 8 I can tell you that one big reason it passed was that the campaign opposing it stank on ice.
Yep. It was one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen, and the fact that they kept doing the same thing as they lost support made me want to line them all up and slap them. Either that, or for them to give me my damn money back for screwing up so badly.
Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 9, 2009 at 10:00 AM | PERMALINK
So I suspect polls will show a LOT more support for gay marriage than their actually is, thanks to the storm trooper intimidation tactics of the gay lobby.
You mean like the letters they sent out before the election threatening boycotts of businesses that donated?
Oh, wait, that would be the Yes on 8 folks who did that. Now that the same tactic is being used against them, they're crying like little babies that it's unfair that their opponents get to do the same thing to them that they did to their opponents.
Cry me a river. If you threaten to boycott businesses because they donated to No on 8, don't come whining when your businesses get boycotted in return.
Jesus, right-wingers are delicate little flowers, aren't they?
Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 9, 2009 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
A lot of gay white men are racists, sorry to say. (Gay voters were one of the few demographic groups with whom Obama did worse than John Kerry did.)
While the former is surely true (being gay does not immunize you from racism) the latter does not follow. Obama's numbers among gays were excellent and dropped a bit from Kerry's because Bush had managed to polarize even some gay Republicans against him. Note that the Log Cabin Republicans declined to endorse Bush in 2004, which is remarkable for a group that exists solely to support Republicans. With gay issues less salient this year than in 2004 and the Republicans less vocal about it, gay conservatives went home. Obama still got 70% of the gay vote.
Posted by: Brittain33 on January 9, 2009 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK
With gay issues less salient this year than in 2004 and the Republicans less vocal about it, gay conservatives went home.
Which would seem to indicate a rather amazing ability among some LGBT voters to self-delude about the GOP's continuing efforts against gay equality and dignity. McCain and Palin may not have made these issues the centerpiece of their campaigns, but their position on them was quite clear.
Posted by: shortstop on January 9, 2009 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK
Blacks should have voted overwhelmingly to defeat prop 8. That's the point. That they did not is more than notable, it's insulting to those of us who have our whole lives been supportive of economic justice and equal rights for blacks.
Posted by: NealB on January 9, 2009 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK
Blacks should have voted overwhelmingly to defeat prop 8. That's the point. That they did not is more than notable, it's insulting to those of us who have our whole lives been supportive of economic justice and equal rights for blacks.
I'm sorry, but if you went into the Prop 8 fight unaware of homophobia in the black community, you probably should have done a little more research first. You can't just demand that people support you; you have to explain to them why what looks like to them like a bunch of white people complaining about their rights is actually something that affects them.
Not to mention that, looking at these statistics, you should be a lot more pissed off at Latinos. Both churchgoers and non-churchgoers supported Prop 8 at higher levels than African-Americans did and they're a bigger slice of the California electorate than African-American voters. And yet people are only screaming about the black voters betraying them. Funny, that.
Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 9, 2009 at 11:08 AM | PERMALINK
Churchgoers are the new niggers.
Posted by: in vino veritas on January 9, 2009 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK
And yet people are only screaming about the black voters betraying them.
The original suggestions that black turnout may have been a significant factor had nothing to do with who was betraying who, but with suggestion that black support was enough above the average that an increase in black turnout (due largely to Barack Obama being on the ballot) may have been a significant contributing factor to the result.
AFAICT, this new report doesn't really have much to say about that. It does indicate that earlier reports of the degree of black support for Prop 8 were overstated, and it does do something to explain black support for the measure. What it does not do is doing anything to explore the key question that relates to the reason this whole thing became an issue.
Posted by: cmdicely on January 9, 2009 at 12:08 PM | PERMALINK
Why is religiosity an excuse rather than an explanation? Many homophobes base their views on religious justification; I don't see why that makes their homophobia any less objectionable.
Posted by: JRD on January 9, 2009 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK
And now the same whiny ass titty babies who sent extortion letters to "No On 8" supporters demanding equal contributions to "Yes On 8" are suing for a suspension/elimination of campaign contribution disclosure laws because Teh Gheyz might be upset and boycott bigoted businesses in a perfectly legal and legitimate exercise in the First Amendment right to free speech via The Almighty Dollar.
Wah. Cry me a fucking river.
You bought Prop 8, now you own it. If you're ashamed to admit you contributed to a campaign designed to strip law-abiding citizens of their equal rights to a civil contract simply because you don't like how we fuck in the privacy of our own homes, perhaps you should re-examine your position.
It never ceases to amaze me how some people can be so violently hateful and hysterical about something that has absolutely fuck-all to do with their own lives, and then have the audacity to use "freedom of religion" as a fig leaf in a pathetic attempt to justify encoding their hatred into law. If this is the love of Christ, I'll pass, thanks.
Posted by: Keori on January 9, 2009 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK
http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2009/01/07/7857
Timothy Kincaid spills his ink very well. Funny how often in our society the victimizers quickly become the victimized. Solidarity has vanished. It's back to the ghetto for me until the day I die.
Posted by: Gabriel on January 9, 2009 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
In California, homosexuals have the power to persecute Christians. In the rest of the country, this is emphatically not the case. In fact, the antics of the Prop 8 opponents have doubtless turned off so many mainstream Americans that Obama found it necessary to invite Rick Warren to his inauguration to put some useful political distance between himself and them. Georgia and Texas are an election cycle or two from turning blue but this depends on the Democratic Party avoiding the gay agenda and its hatred of the traditional Christian values of the American people.
Gays demand that the rest of the Democratic Party jump off a cliff for them. Well, it's not going to do that. Gays demand that the rest of the Democratic Party return to the failed cultural revolution by judicial fiat politics of the 1970's and simply impose gay marriage on the country through the courts. Blacks remember what a disaster busing was and remember how much political capital it cost them. They will not go down that road again. Minority voters (who will guarantee that California remains blue whatever hissy fit gays throw) care about jobs and health care, not cultural elite lifestyles.
Posted by: Charles Warren on January 10, 2009 at 12:05 AM | PERMALINK
The black community is widely socially conservative as is the latino community
however i dont get the vitrol thrown at their communities. They may not support homosexuality as lifestyle but that does not mean it should be taken as referendum on who hates gay people.
frustration is one thing but come on this is getting silly.
Attacking a person's religious beliefs isnt gonna get them to change their mind
Posted by: KumaThree on January 11, 2009 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK