January 11, 2009
RESTRAINT.... The New York Times' David Sanger has a fascinating item today, reporting on a secret request from the Israeli government last year for "specialized bunker-busting bombs it wanted for an attack on Iran's main nuclear complex." Bush declined, thanks in part to the sound counsel of his Defense Secretary.
The White House denied that request outright, American officials said, and the Israelis backed off their plans, at least temporarily. But the tense exchanges also prompted the White House to step up intelligence-sharing with Israel and brief Israeli officials on new American efforts to subtly sabotage Iran's nuclear infrastructure, a major covert program that Mr. Bush is about to hand off to President-elect Barack Obama. [...]
The interviews also suggest that while Mr. Bush was extensively briefed on options for an overt American attack on Iran's facilities, he never instructed the Pentagon to move beyond contingency planning, even during the final year of his presidency, contrary to what some critics have suggested.
The interviews also indicate that Mr. Bush was convinced by top administration officials, led by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, that any overt attack on Iran would probably prove ineffective, lead to the expulsion of international inspectors and drive Iran's nuclear effort further out of view. Mr. Bush and his aides also discussed the possibility that an airstrike could ignite a broad Middle East war in which America's 140,000 troops in Iraq would inevitably become involved.
The piece is worth reading in its entirety -- it paints a picture of Israel pressuring Bush to support a confrontation, but the president becoming convinced that a strike would prove counterproductive. Of particular interest was not just Israel's request for bunker-busting bombs, but also for permission to fly over Iraq to strike Iran.
Mr. Bush deflected the first two requests, pushing the issue off, but "we said 'hell no' to the overflights," one of his top aides said. At the White House and the Pentagon, there was widespread concern that a political uproar in Iraq about the use of its American-controlled airspace could result in the expulsion of American forces from the country. [...]
Last June, the Israelis conducted an exercise over the Mediterranean Sea that appeared to be a dry run for an attack on the enrichment plant at Natanz. When the exercise was analyzed at the Pentagon, officials concluded that the distances flown almost exactly equaled the distance between Israel and the Iranian nuclear site.
"This really spooked a lot of people," one White House official said. White House officials discussed the possibility that the Israelis would fly over Iraq without American permission. In that case, would the American military be ordered to shoot them down? If the United States did not interfere to stop an Israeli attack, would the Bush administration be accused of being complicit in it?
It's hard to overstate how fortunate we are that all of this occurred after Donald Rumsfeld left the Pentagon.
—Steve Benen 7:55 AM
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Two possibilities here:
1) This story is baloney, part of the Bush Legacy Project, and either Israel never asked or it was someone other than Bush who stopped the request.
2) The story is factual. Which for me would tend to confirm my thought that there was some sort of falling out between Bush and Cheney in 2008, and while Cheney retained his considerable personal and organizational power he no longer held Bush's strings - and there may be some animosity between them.
Cranky
Posted by: Cranky Observer on January 11, 2009 at 8:18 AM | PERMALINK
It's hard to overstate how fortunate we are that all of this occurred after Donald Rumsfeld left the Pentagon.
I'd have to say that "the more fortunate ones" are the troops we've got in Iraq right now, because there's absolutely no doubt that they'd have been "in it up to their eyeballs" had this stupidity gone down the way Tel Aviv wanted.
Posted by: Steve W. on January 11, 2009 at 8:20 AM | PERMALINK
uhm, how can a covert operation to subtly subvert Iran's nuclear programs continue if anyone can read about it in an American newspaper?
Posted by: wonkie on January 11, 2009 at 8:30 AM | PERMALINK
Which for me would tend to confirm my thought that there was some sort of falling out between Bush and Cheney in 2008, and while Cheney retained his considerable personal and organizational power he no longer held Bush's strings
The thought of Bush gone rogue is almost more than I can bear.
Posted by: MissMudd on January 11, 2009 at 8:40 AM | PERMALINK
As many have noted, Israel has an overweening influence on the US Government and the members of the latter (and the MSCM) are nearly incapable of criticizing what Israel does. But even WSJ is showing some cracks, see e.g. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123154826952369919.html.
If I may also point out, its defenders of the Gaza incursion compare to what if semi/official actors in Mexico sent rockets to US soil - well: Gaza, unlike Mexico is not a true nation state. God only knows what Gaza "is" BTW, a disputed territory, well? But since Israel controls it so much it's more like the USA bombing Guam to quell a separatist movement - wouldn't that be outrageous?
Also, the apologists leave out that Israel is not blameless (settlements, suppression of trade and movement etc.) and so it's more like: USA has been illegally settling in Pacific Islands we wrangled after WWII but the International Community does not recognize our claim. Also we blockaded the Islands and suppressed the native's wellbeing. An independence group sends rockets to US soil (imagine, for principle) - and then we bomb the living hell out of them instead of treating it more like a police action? - and of course we should stop our own misconduct.
BTW, pardon my OT segue but it's eating me up. Does anyone know *WTF* happened on Saturday with share prices of some stocks, in particular Ford - which had a listing just that day on Google finance page (along with a few others that looked to have gone up enormously that one day) and specifically at http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:F of "$25" (!?) - could GF possibly have made a mistake, but why? Even today, F is already listed back down to 2.63 close of day, the same price it closed Friday. Furthermore, Scottrade charts show normal continuity. tx
Posted by: NB on January 11, 2009 at 8:41 AM | PERMALINK
A very odd artie. Certainly you are indeed lucky this did not crop up in the Rumsfeld era, but the clear spinning going on (perhaps factions contra and favourable) make this hard to accept entirely at face value.
Posted by: The Lounsbury on January 11, 2009 at 8:43 AM | PERMALINK
Those covert operations, and the question of whether Israel will settle for something less than a conventional attack on Iran, pose immediate and wrenching decisions for Mr. Obama.
The real question is whether the US will settle for two Middle East wars rather than three. One might also ask what happens to 140,000 US troops at the end of a long and vulnerable supply chain in Iraq after a US-backed Israeli attack on Iran. Of course there's no possible way that such an attack might lead to effects on the supply of ME oil. Our "special relationship" with Israel seems to boil down, at long last, to "Let's you and him fight."
Posted by: Reverend Dennis on January 11, 2009 at 8:46 AM | PERMALINK
I can't wait to hear Brit Hume ask Bush about this this AM on Fox News Sunday (snark). My guess is that Bush will simply say, "It's old news." After all Seymour Hersch already wrote about it.
Posted by: Danp on January 11, 2009 at 8:57 AM | PERMALINK
Maybe my first statement looked contradictory, I meant to imply: Bush's relative restraint was notable due to the very fact of Israelocentric pressure being so typically influential.
Posted by: NB on January 11, 2009 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK
seems to me that the IAF doesn't really need permission from the US - remember how they took out the Iraqi nuclear reactor? If we're so damn concerned about Iran having nuclear weapons, why not let those who know how to take it out, take it out? With all our technologies and brouhaha over American weaponry, seems we couldn't even manage to shock and awe anyone, but the IAF could go in, take out a nuclear reactor and still be home for dinner.
Posted by: Tess on January 11, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK
I take this story as having a glimmer of truth.
I think somewhere down deep Bush actually understands the situation in Palestine... and knowing his ego, it probably never set well with him to do the 'AIPAC Crawl' for money and media support.
He also remembers how the Israelis literally killed his mideast peace initative overnight (this was early in is first term)... probably with a single phone call.
As a lame duck, Bush could afford to buck the Israelis... but just a bit... and only if kept secret until his last days in office.
It will be interesting to see if Obama has the personal courage to stand up to them. Even if just a tiny bit. To do this, he will need to speak directly to the american people as the congress is owned... lock, stock and barrel.
Posted by: Buford on January 11, 2009 at 10:30 AM | PERMALINK
Perhaps the commentator Tess might care to become moderately familiar with geography, and the notable issue of American controlled Iraqi airspace intervening between Iran and Israel (never mind Jordanian or Saudi). A small ponder as to the probable reaction of the Iraqi Shai leadership, close to Iran as they are, and wider population would might (if one dares to be optimistic) bring a small realisation of the problems posed by an Israeli strike on Iran...
Of course Tess might also wish to become familiar as well with apparent indisputable fact that unlike the Iraqi reactor, the Iranian program is (i) hardened and (ii) dispersed geographically (with possible duplicate centres).
Not really the same situation as the out-in-the-open Osiris site, which was easy.
Posted by: The Lounsbury on January 11, 2009 at 11:11 AM | PERMALINK
Here comes my paranoia: seems like the Israelis wanted a widespread war in the region before Bush left office and if they couldn't have it against Iran, by God they were going to start something by beating up the Palestinians (again) and daring the UN to do something about it.
Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 11, 2009 at 12:07 PM | PERMALINK
With all our technologies and brouhaha over American weaponry, seems we couldn't even manage to shock and awe anyone, but the IAF could go in, take out a nuclear reactor and still be home for dinner.
You do realize that "shock and awe" is supposed to pacify the population ahead of an invasion, right? I'm not sure how the Israelis were supposed to successfully invade Iran and still "be home for dinner" when they couldn't even manage to win against Hezbollah (not even the full government) in Lebanon.
Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 11, 2009 at 12:10 PM | PERMALINK
"1) This story is baloney, part of the Bush Legacy Project, and either Israel never asked or it was someone other than Bush who stopped the request."
Another possibility is that the story is complete bullshit: Israel asked for the weapons, the U.S. sold them the weapons, Israel now has the weapons, and the story that the administration deflected the request for aid is an abject lie.
It's not like this would be the first time the New York Times has repeated the abject lies of the administration.
Posted by: s9 on January 11, 2009 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK
I heard ret. CENTCOM General John Abizaid speak in Oct. 2007. He volunteered without having been asked, that the US would not attack Iran. Noncategorically. I wondered at the time why he said that as he was discussing US interests across the Middle East, and Iran was not being discussed in particular. I believed it was because Adm Mullen was standing between the Air Force rapture nuts and Cheney and the Israeli dual citizens around him. I still believe that.
Abizaid despises Bush, Rumsfeld, and I would guestimate, Cheney, as well. I hope he writes a book, because it would be an interesting read.
Posted by: Annie on January 11, 2009 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK
Annie, just curious how many dual Israel-US citizens (or close to it) we have in the Gov't. Note Rahm E. was in Israel and support helper for IDF, he is likely not a Likudnik type but it must influence his gut feelings.
Posted by: NB on January 11, 2009 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK
I think even Rumsfeld was against attacking Iran, wasn't he?
Posted by: CDW on January 11, 2009 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
"...It's hard to overstate how fortunate we are that all of this occurred after Donald Rumsfeld left the Pentagon..."
No kidding. We lucked out there. We can now see that Israel is really a far right organization more than willing to start a world war to get their way...plus kill anyone standing in their way. We need to keep Israel on a very short leash and definitely not supply them with weapons they are more than willing to use. Shalom from the world's greatest separatists culture, sharing nothing without getting a return.
Posted by: bjobotts on January 11, 2009 at 8:07 PM | PERMALINK
Another reason to suspect this story as delivered is that at least the first couple generations of bunker-busting bombs really aren't that complicated, and the israelis could almost certainly do the R&D themselves if they wanted to. (For the simplest -- and very effective -- first generation, you just get a very big long piece of steel such as a filled howitzer barrel, make sure it lands pointing down, and stuff a bunch of explosive on the back that doesn't go off until it's gone through whatever ceiling it was going to penetrate.)
Posted by: paul on January 11, 2009 at 8:18 PM | PERMALINK
btw...Israel has hundreds of nukes with delivery systems. How safe and secure would that make the Iranians feel. Iran condemned the use of WMD and refused to use them even when they were being used against them by Iraq. I fail to see why we should ever fear a nuclear Iran. Israel just wants to ensure their superiority.
Posted by: bjobotts on January 11, 2009 at 8:41 PM | PERMALINK
uhm, how can a covert operation to subtly subvert Iran's nuclear programs continue if anyone can read about it in an American newspaper?
This leak may be the only effective action of the operation.
Posted by: Boronx on January 11, 2009 at 8:50 PM | PERMALINK
I wonder how long W avoided seeing or speaking to Dick Cheney after making that decision.
Posted by: Bob on January 12, 2009 at 1:04 AM | PERMALINK
ah memories. All those breathlessly peddled Seymour Hersh stories.
You people should hang your heads in shame.
Posted by: a on January 12, 2009 at 5:27 AM | PERMALINK
NB
Emanuel's father is, however, a citizen of Israel and is a Likudnik. Your point is well taken.
Posted by: impartial on January 12, 2009 at 10:23 AM | PERMALINK