Making any kind of prediction about the 2010 election is an exercise in futility. We have to see what happens with the economy between now and then.

What's more, with four more Republican incumbents

Three, perhaps? Or someone other than Voinovich?

From abovementioned Politico article:

“In my lifetime of public service, I have never seen the country in such perilous circumstances,� Voinovich said in a statement issued by his office. “Not since the Great Depression and the Second World War have we been confronted with such challenges, as a nation and as a world. Those of us that have been given the honor to serve in these times must step up to the plate and put this country on a course that will see it through these harrowing times and make it strong and viable for the 21st century.�

Does this mean that Voinovich is taking responsibility for the disastrous job Republicans have made of things during the Bush Administration?

I'd thought people were being overoptimistic about our pickup chances in '10, given that so many Repubs are entrenched stalwarts who, I thought, would all run again. I am delighted to keep discovering I was wrong.

At almost 75, you have to wonder how much longer Hatch can hang in there, too. When he leaves, his replacement will almost surely be a Republican, but without all the seniority and pull Hatch has.

Okay, so where is the blog post about the most ironic story of the year: Gov. Blag will swear in his new legislature this week! What if he refuses to do so, or some of them refuse to recognize his authority? Anyway, he'll swear them in so they can proceed to impeach him one more time.

My hope is that this is a signal that Voinivich knows that he's been played for the last 8+ years and that he isn't signing on to the GOP strategy of "obstruct no matter what". If he's planning on working in good faith with Obama and Senate Dems, he'd face a tough primary challenge in '10 from his right and he knows it.

My fear is that he's doing this because he's going all in with his GOP colleagues on their plan to obstruct no matter what and that he knows that doing that will kill him in this state that is rapidly trending away from the shock politics of the GOP.

I think the second one is unlikely - Voinivich is an old-school moderate who has too much party loyalty for his own good. But not really that much.

My hope is that this is a signal that Voinivich knows that he's been played NonyNony

If the issue of the day were Iraq, I would make this inference. Since it is the economy, it will be more interesting. I would bet he will be more "reasonable" now. He did, after all, vote with Dems on the auto bailout. So I would bet he won't make insincere arguments that McConnell and the Southern Lords will. But he is, by nature, a fiscal conservative, so I wouldn't expect him to become a rollover vote.

Intriguing numbers. If we can pick up only two or three of those Senate seats it would put us over the top of the magic 60 needed to overcome filibusters, with sugar on top. I'm liking our chances so far.

But he is, by nature, a fiscal conservative, so I wouldn't expect him to become a rollover vote. - Danp

This actually makes me hopeful. Because the current Republican Party isn't actually "fiscally conservative" in the sense that Voinivich tends to be. Voinivich has always hewed to a more "fiscally responsible" line than the "hack-and-slash taxes / drown the government in the bathtub" mantra that the GOP has been clinging to lately.

If he sticks to that, then that should be good enough to break stupid filibusters. Obama is actually more in the mold of an old-school "fiscally responsible conservative" than the majority of Voinivich's own caucus in the Senate can claim.

It is no fun being in the minority. Of course, the worst time of all is when you go from majority to minority.

A friend of mine, a senior staff member for a Democratic Senator, told me over lunch at the end of 2002 that he had to go back to his office and fire a bunch of people because of the Republican victory.

If you are a sitting Republican Senator in 2008, you know the odds of you taking back control in the next election is not good. So winning re-election is not as valuable as it is to the sitting Democratic Senator.

He's part of a dying breed; a "pro-labor Republican"---so George is about to plunge the knife deep into the anti-labor GOP's chest, give it a good twist or two, and whisper those infamous words:

Poh Ihn Teh; Nahch Tah Poh Chih Lah....

*Translation: Revenge is a dish best served cold

Sixty votes? Sixty two or three? All that's needed is for President Obama to hew his narrative close to the emerging reality and it's done. Then: crush and sweep aside the maggoty remnants of Reagan conservatism forever. With a wry smile and ironic aside, of course.

From the Politico article,

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), one of the biggest fundraisers for the NRSC last cycle, said the wave of retirements has caused some panic among Republicans.

"I'm really concerned because it's important we have some balance here because if we don't, one side can do whatever it wants to do, and that's not good for the country," Hatch said.

It should be noted that in 2004 there were five DEMOCRATIC Senators who retired, allowing Bush to maintain his majority in the Senate.

What? Now we won't have enough torture supporters?

So, SCREW YOU, ORRIN. "It's important we have some balance"? Is that what you said, you Bush-ass-kissing psycho who helped sell this country down the road to torture and war crimes? And illegal wars. And did nothing while New Oleans was dying. And allowed illegal NSA eavesdropping. And approving Samuel Alito. And John Roberts. And Gonzo.

BALANCE? Between sanity and INsanity?

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I am late to the game, but would like to second NonyNony fully.

I am very hopeful as well that Voinovich will go out on the 'right' side of history, i.e. generally supporting the Obama Administration.

The GOP no longer has any power over him; he doesn't need their support for the next election. He can do whatever he wants. And so I would expect him to become more, not less moderate.