January 14, 2009
INCHING UP AT THE CLOSE.... The final Gallup poll on George W. Bush's approval ratings was released this morning, and thanks to some 11th-hour goodwill from Republicans, the president will leave office with a 34% rating. That puts him near the bottom of modern presidents, but not quite at the very bottom.
In one sense, Bush's final rating is worse than either Carter's or Truman's, because his disapproval score is significantly higher. Whereas Bush and Carter share identical 34% final job approval ratings, 61% of Americans disapprove of the job Bush is doing, compared with 55% who said they disapproved of Carter in December 1980. Similarly, whereas Bush's final approval rating is slightly higher than Truman's 32% in 1952, his disapproval rating is also higher (61% vs. 56%), resulting in a lower net approval rating for Bush.
Only Richard Nixon was explicitly less popular at the time of his exit than Bush is today. Gallup's final approval polling on Nixon, in which 24% of Americans said they approved of the job he was doing, was conducted Aug. 2-5, 1974, less than a week before Nixon resigned from office over the Watergate break-in political scandal. [...]
Bush has what most would consider the unwanted distinction of registering the lowest final job approval rating of any modern president leaving office at the natural end of his term.
Thanks to a large number of Republicans who've shifted of late to support him, Bush got a nine-point post-election bump, bringing his approval rating up to 34% from 25%. Without it, Bush's final Gallup number would have been far more humiliating.
And in case you're curious, Bill Clinton had the highest exit ranking of any modern president, leaving office with a 66% approval rating.
The full list after the jump.
1. Bill Clinton (66% approve, 29% disapprove)
2. Ronald Reagan (63% approve, 29% disapprove)
3. Dwight Eisenhower (59% approve, 28% disapprove)
4. George H.W. Bush (56% approve, 37% disapprove)
5. Gerald Ford (53% approve, 32% disapprove)
6. Lyndon Johnson (49% approve, 37% disapprove)
7. Jimmy Carter (34% approve, 55% disapprove)
8. George W. Bush (34% approve, 61% disapprove)
9. Harry Truman (32% approve, 56% disapprove)
10. Richard Nixon (24% approve, 66% disapprove)
Because both FDR and JFK died in office, Gallup does not include them in the list of final job approval ratings.
—Steve Benen 10:50 AM
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I thought Johnson was less popular than that.
Posted by: goethean on January 14, 2009 at 10:51 AM | PERMALINK
Dear Dubya,
Your approval rating is worse that your daddy's disapproval rating. I don't think that qualifies for the free trip to Disney World!
By the way, Dubya---since "only Nixon" was worse that you, it kind of suggests that Hoover was better than you. How does it feel to be viewed as "worse than Hoover"?
Inquiring minds want to know, as they laugh their backsides off at you....
Posted by: Steve W. on January 14, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK
President Clinton's 66% approval rating will continue to gall the repugnants for decades!
Posted by: captain dan on January 14, 2009 at 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
I don't 'believe' the Gallup poll at all. A nine percent jump based on exactly what ? This is pure fucking manipulation by Gallop as has been well documented in the past.
Posted by: stormskies on January 14, 2009 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK
"Thanks to a large number of Republicans who've shifted of late to support him, Bush got a nine-point post-election bump, bringing his approval rating up to 34% from 25%."
As I speak, the Dow is down to its 1997 level (give or take). Bush has wiped out over ten years of growth. Somehow, one out of three of us think he's done a bang up job.
I don't know who disappoints me more--the 25 percent who approve of Bush's performance no matter how many have literally died from his stupidity (e.g. Iraq, torture, unsafe drugs, unsafe foods, unsafe water, unsafe air, unsafe work conditions, unsafe toys, poor health care, Katrina, Gaza [yes, I blame Bush too],...), or the other 9 percent who changed their minds in the last few weeks after listening to right-wing radio and Fox News wax nostalgic.
Posted by: CJ on January 14, 2009 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK
This may be the first time I ever thought stormskies understated his point.
Posted by: Danp on January 14, 2009 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK
This nine point jump could help the economy. Pilgrimage packages for Preston Hollow will rival those for Branson. The Osmonds or hearing Shrub croon "I did it my way", hmmm?
Posted by: berttheclock on January 14, 2009 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK
The prick's poll numbers improved a little because they think 'finally, he's leaving'.
Posted by: joekool on January 14, 2009 at 11:16 AM | PERMALINK
Well, if he's not considered the worst, it's not because he didn't try. Ugh, I can't believe we made it through eight years with this idiot at the wheel.
Posted by: Allan Snyder on January 14, 2009 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK
Clinton also left the stock market in better shape than any other modern president, overseeing a 300+% rise in the major indices over his eight years.
Our approval of him (and our disapproval of Bush) had something to do with our approval of what was happening in our 401(k) and brokerage accounts.
Posted by: skimble on January 14, 2009 at 11:30 AM | PERMALINK
I don't know that it makes sense to compare the end of official term poll results to Nixon's result a week before he resigned. There is a very clear (if sort of inexplicable) tendency for the public to become much more sympathetic to a departing President during the "lame duck" period. Given that such a boost seems to occur across the board, and in so far as there can not have been much if any new information that would have shifted people's opinions vis a vis the pre-election period, I think the last pre-election approval numbers probably contain more reliable information - at the very least, they would make for more apples-to-apples comparison to Nixon. And not just for W, but for a lot of other presidents: both Reagan and Bush pere enjoyed a substantial lame-duck boost, which I think disguises the degree to which each had become unpopular by the end of their presidency.
Posted by: Rich C on January 14, 2009 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK
Republicans can't separate party from president. Even if he burned the joint down, (imagine that), many would still say something positive because otherwise it would reflect badly on the party. They've ingested their instructions. They know to toe the line.
He's a dummkopf but he's their dummkopf.
Posted by: burro on January 14, 2009 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK
and thanks to some 11th goodwill from Republicans,
need an HOUR in there somewhere ....
Posted by: Insert Here on January 14, 2009 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK
A nine percent jump based on exactly what ?
People tend to state they "approve" or "disapprove" of things based on implicit comparisons to other things provided by social context; for Republicans prior to the election, the comparison was probably in significant part to McCain, after the election, it was more likely to be President-Elect Obama that was on their minds.
Posted by: cmdicely on January 14, 2009 at 11:49 AM | PERMALINK
Clinton also left the stock market in better shape than any other modern president, overseeing a 300+% rise in the major indices over his eight years.
Which is probably less important than the fact that every income quintile saw growth in the Clinton years, even though income inequality did increase. In even the expansions in the Reagan-Bush years, the lower income quintiles often did worse, and in the Bush II expansion, all income quintiles but the top did worse, and even the top quintile didn't see much growth over most of the quintile (the top few percent, OTOH, saw incredible growth.)
The stock market is very visible, but not a particularly good indicator of the health of the economy. Even the headline numbers (GDP growth, etc.) don't tell key parts of the story. That the 2001-2007 "expansion" was hollowing out the economy was evident, if you looked beyond the headline numbers.
Posted by: cmdicely on January 14, 2009 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK
Which is probably less important than the fact that every income quintile saw growth in the Clinton years, even though income inequality did increase... The stock market is very visible, but not a particularly good indicator of the health of the economy.
100% true, and a welcome expansion of the point I was making.
Posted by: skimble on January 14, 2009 at 12:08 PM | PERMALINK
I thought Johnson was less popular than that.
Posted by: goethean
Well, he did win the 1968 New Hampshire primary with 49 percent of the vote, which pretty much mirrored his final national approval rating.
But Gene McCarthy came within seven points of knocking him off, a cataclysmic event which contributed to LBJ's renunciation speech on March 31.
Posted by: Screamin' Demon on January 14, 2009 at 12:35 PM | PERMALINK
It's easy for Gallup to get a 9 point jump - poll more republicans. That's what they always do when they want to improve the republican image.
Posted by: James G on January 14, 2009 at 12:47 PM | PERMALINK
Yeah, but didn't Nixon's resignation get about a 100% approval rating? That's gotta count for something.
Posted by: tomeck on January 14, 2009 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK
Unbelievable! Really. Gallup must have had to look under every rock to find 34% who approve of Bush. What has G.W. Bush done lately to deserve a 9-point jump? Following Bush's last presser, Gallup dares not poll Bush approval ratings ever again.
Posted by: Carol A. on January 14, 2009 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK
Well, now we know specifically what Bush's legacy tour has been trying to achieve: to make him clearly less unpopular than Nixon. Mission Accomplished!!
Posted by: Bruce K on January 14, 2009 at 2:26 PM | PERMALINK