It isn't just racial demographics that Republicans should fear. Younger voters are leaving them in droves - driven away by the party's reliance on gay hating and religious intolerance. As older, bigoted voters die off they are being replaced by younger and more tolerant voters. In our lifetimes we will see gays allowed to marry as a civil rights issue and see laws against non-Christians holding office struck down. For a party that relies on bigotry to get voters out to the polls, that right there is a death rattle.

"The most reliable Republican voters in the country are blue-collar whites without college degrees."

That's not a really accurate discription, is it? Isn't it Southern blue-collar whites without college degress? If blue-collar whites in the South voted the way blue-collar whites vote elsewhere in the country, wouldn't the GOP barely exist as a political party?

Mike

Let the Republican Party shrink — until we can drown in in the bath tub.

(Glad to see we can recycle those old Repub bon mots.)

Crankily yours,

This demographic shift could enable Obama to do something no Democratic president has done since pre-Civil War days (as the Whigs fizzled and the Republican party rose) -- be succeeded by a fellow Democrat while completing a full term. When Democrats have succeeded Democrats, it was due to death (Roosevelt/Truman, Kennedy/Johnson). They came close in 2000 with Clinton to Gore, and probably would have done so if the Florida Democratic party had been more aggressive in getting out the black vote, but you know what happened.

The Way of the Tories

Like I keep saying - it's time to let the Republican Party die off, and phase in a liberal/progressive party.

Seriously - today's Democrats are to the right of the early sixties Republicans! We have absolutely nothing on the Left anymore. The Greens have not yet shown themselves as viable, even in New Mexico. Ralph Nader doesn't represent a political party, just himself. Everything else is even more marginal.

Unless the Democratic Party is somehow re-captured by Democrats, it's time for something new.

Given the demographic changes, it sounds like the GOP should probably do more than just hope.

If they want to insist that hope is a plan, then who am I to blow against the wind?

The sad fact is that as long as there is one Republican elected in the entire US, the Dems will bend over backward to let them obstruct or call the tune. What could have been a bigger call to change, a more emphatic call to change from the disastrous policies of the Rethugs for the last 8 years than the election of Obama? And yet, who is traveling around the world's hotspots with Biden--LINDSAY GRAHAM! (No difference than if McCain was elected) and how many indications have Reid and Obama given that they are anxious to accommodate the Rethugs points of view--even on the war and the economy! I despair, really. Sure, the Dems in Congress have discovered a bit of spine, giving Obama some trouble after caving to Bush all these years. But demographics be damned, until Dems realize how the world works (or we elect better candidates) it won't matter if the Rethugs are in very small minority.

Shrinkage. Ah yes, like what happens when you aren't dressed appropriately for visiting the frozen north.

Plus it would be nice if the statistical stuff were dumbed down somewhat. Being responsive, sincere, on message and give a dam should trump all the sound bites. These past election margins should of been way larger than what they were.

Remember when some were commenting they didn't care how many interns Clinton needed, just keep this market rock'n. Same still goes but it would be nice if stability were the goal instead of greed. I'll step off my soapbox now.

These stats are all quite interesting and important, but I still shake my head at the thought that "The most reliable Republican voters in the country are blue-collar whites without college degrees."

The coming California bankruptcy might have a beneficial effect on the thinking of voters about who has their best interests at heart. A little socialism seems harmless during times of prosperity but when the bill comes due, the college educated part of the population, who have drifted left on social issues and college diversity classes, may have a different opinion on economics. We'll see.

It's not just demographic trends which are hurting the GOP, but also the lack of a cogent message that has any appeal to the demographic group that is growing the fastest, i.e. immigrants.

Currently the GOP is best know for being anti-immigrant, intolerant, anti-regulation, and slavishly devoted to tax cuts.

Problem is, immigrants are the fastest growing part of the population, throughout history every generation has proven to be more tolerant than their parents, the recent collapse of the economy has shown that reducing regulations may not be such a hot idea, and even the stupidest people realize that you cannot keep cutting taxes indefinitely and still have a functioning government.

So right now, the GOP has exactly ZERO issues to run on. That's their problem!!!

Art says:
Younger voters are leaving them in droves - driven away by the party's reliance on gay hating and religious intolerance. As older, bigoted voters die off they are being replaced by younger and more tolerant voters. In our lifetimes we will see gays allowed to marry as a civil rights issue and see laws against non-Christians holding office struck down. For a party that relies on bigotry to get voters out to the polls, that right there is a death rattle.

Um, Art dear, who are the major players in Aryan Nation groups? Younger bigoted voters. How about any particular group of fanatics? Younger bigots. Bigotry has nothing to do with age, but a whole lot to do with education. If the younger demographic is becoming more educated, then hurray, they will be less bigoted. If they aren't, they will be more bigoted. The biggest demographic shift really is racial, since sonny boys tend to repeat what Daddy taught them about them colored folks.

We'll see.

Bwa! Because the record of Mike K's predictions coming true is running about 250-1 against him (and I may be overkind giving him the 1), I'm totally on board every time he starts the "we'll see" stuff.

The real problem facing the GOP is the increasing number of brown people without a sense of humor. They're just breeding faster than white people who can take a good joke.

The Republican Party is losing support because more and more people are realizing that it is no longer really a political party, but an organized crime syndicate masquerading as a political party.

The Republican Party uses the fake, phony, trumped-up, scripted, teleprompted, focus-group-tested, corporate-sponsored pseudo-ideology known as "conservatism" in America today to dupe the gullible and gain power, which it then uses for corrupt purposes of private financial gain at the public expense.

The essence of the Republican Party of today is not ideology. It is criminality.

That's why the Republican Party is losing support even among so-called "conservatives" -- because everyone except the most brainwashed, brain-dead dittohead mental slaves of Rush Limbaugh can see that the Republicans are not ideologues, they are crooks.

Vive l'evolution!

Shorter Mike K: People might be rejecting Republican incompetence and corruption now, but they'll reject your SOCIALISM later, just wait and see!

Funny, it seems people -- apart from the top 1% that make up the Republican core constituency -- are already having a different opinion on economics, and the costs of the failures created by Republican rule.

Since Mike K wouldn't know socialism if it walked up and said howdy -- he just knows Rush says it's EEEEVUL! -- shortstop's assessment of his accuracy is if anything too generous.

Mike K:

The coming California Bankruptcy has more to do with intransigent Republicans who offer absolutely no solutions, a governor who's more milquetoast than terminator, and a public who wants everything now but is unwilling to pay for it, and don't even get me started on the debacle know as Prop 13. I live in California, and its infuriating. People, decide what being a resident of the greate state of California means to you, expectations and responsibilies included. If you want cops to arrive at your door 10 seconds after you dial 911, your kids to be Fulbright Scholars, teams of doctors to take care of you, be prepared to pay your fair share. We all have a personal responsibility and a shared responsibility to each other, and I'm tired of people who's personal mantra is "I got mine, screw you!" running my home state into the ground.
Republicans, if you don't taxes to be raise, grow a pair, and then propose how you would cut 41 billion dollars from the budget. I double-dog dare you!

The coming California Bankruptcy has more to do with intransigent Republicans who offer absolutely no solutions

Now, to be fair, Mike K has proposed the solution of him moving out of state now that he's shoved the contents of the California trough down his gullet. His problem now is finding a state that is politically congenial--bright red--while having a productive populace that can take care of him in the style to which he's grown accustomed and declining to tax him at a rate that can keep up his comforts. So far, no hits.

Isn't it Southern blue-collar whites without college degress? If blue-collar whites in the South voted the way blue-collar whites vote elsewhere in the country [...]

Like those Southernmost states of Utah and Wyoming? Or like those "elsewhere, non-Southern" states like VA, NC and Fla?

Ignorant are ignorant, whether they're in the South, North, or the Middle-of-nowhere.

Interesting to see the fight between the Repubs who want to change and will press for concessions and growth, versus the dead enders who will go down fighting for "purity" or whatever they supposedly (usually as cynical operationalists anyway) believe in.

But the real question is what will the U.S. be like as a one party state. Does anyone really believe that a Green Party to the left of the current Democratic Party will be any less white than the current Democratic party.

Also, how will the Democratic primaries be affected when all of the former Repubicans start voting in those primaries. Blacks could be the big losers when they become 12% of the one political party and being outnumbers by conservative white Democrats instead of the current situation of being 25% of the dominant party in the current two party state.

Also, how does the voting rights act apply in a one party state?

The coming California bankruptcy might have a beneficial effect on the thinking of voters about who has their best interests at heart. A little socialism seems harmless during times of prosperity but when the bill comes due, the college educated part of the population, who have drifted left on social issues and college diversity classes, may have a different opinion on economics. We'll see.

So the failed Republican-sponsored tax policies in California and the continuing California Republican jihad against any sort of taxes even when the state is going bankrupt is going to make people insist on continuing down the exact same path that got us here in the first place?

That's some pretty powerful wishful thinking there, Mike.

White Christians are the most reliable Republican voters, whether they have degrees or not.

"Like I keep saying - it's time to let the Republican Party die off, and phase in a liberal/progressive party."

Given that our Dem/ReThug duopoly seems to be set in stone, maybe the hope for liberal/progressives is to start registering ReThuglican.

We'll still be able to vote for Dems over ReThugs in general elections, but as the white/male/uneducated and/or southern demographic shrinks into nothingness, the ReThugs could morph into the old party of Lincoln.

"Um, Art dear, who are the major players in Aryan Nation groups? Younger bigoted voters."

Actually, the major players in white hate groups are middle aged. I will give you, however, that the recruits are young white men. Non-college men.

They will probably always be with us, but I'm not sure they vote, or that they vote for Republicans. There are radical white political parties, you know. I tend to think of them as the mirror image of Nader voters.

But the real question is what will the U.S. be like as a one party state.

It won't be a one-party state; if a major party is destroyed as a viable force, either a minor party will rise up to replace it, or the other major party will schism. The structure of the electoral system essentially guarantees this.

cmdicely,

The problem is that any new party will face exactly the demographic picture that the Republicans face. A green party to the left of the Democratic party would have zero blue collar white vote and as little of the Hispanic/black/asian vote as the current Republican Party.

Even a Huckabee party of economic liberals/social conservatism would probably be ineffective in appealling to blacks and Hispanics.

The Democrats can always outpander any party on its left or right.