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Tilting at Windmills

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January 16, 2009

YOU CAN TAKE THE CANADIAN FLAG OFF YOUR BACKPACK.... It's probably best to wait until there's reliable data to start making any meaningful conclusions -- the next PIPA study should be interesting -- but this report about American popularity overseas is encouraging.

From Jakarta to Johannesburg, Americans who travel or live abroad are finding that instead of being scolded about the Iraq war, the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, or U.S. climate change policy, they are being hugged when strangers hear their accent.

Now, I do find that a little hard to believe. Americans are being hugged? C'mon. I recall a Saturday Night Live bit with Al Gore a couple of years ago in which he joked, in a fictional reality in which he'd taken office in 2000, that the United States had become so popular that "American tourists can't even go over to Europe anymore without getting hugged." Are you telling me this has actually happened?

Hug skepticism notwithstanding, if the anecdotal evidence is right, I'm glad Americans abroad don't need to feel embarrassed anymore by their association to the Bush administration.

Many Americans interviewed in Latin America, Asia, Africa and Europe said that for years they have felt "targeted" by critics of U.S. policies. They said they often did not volunteer that they were American, and several said they even dropped the word "Ottawa" into conversations to try to avoid confrontations.

Now, even in countries such as Japan and Australia, where Americans were generally not taken to task over Bush policies as they were in Europe, Americans interviewed said they suddenly have new cachet. Some compared the feeling to the heady days after the fall of communism. [...]

David St. Onge, 57, a John McCain supporter who works in the pharmaceutical industry and was in Moscow this week, said he has noticed a change in how his Russian clients treat him.

"They seemed to think better of Americans because we elected a black man as president," he said as he walked through Red Square. "They think we're more enlightened now."

Andrew Leik, 40, an architect from Michigan living in Cologne, Germany, said that along with "it definitely being much easier now to be an American" overseas, he has noticed that German friends who had refused even to visit the United States are planning vacations there.

In France, Rick Parks, 64, a retired New York City public school teacher, said he has noticed gestures of friendship and "definitely a change in attitude" toward the United States. Gone are the days when relations with France were so testy that french fries were briefly renamed "freedom fries" in U.S. House cafeterias.

Parks said North African souvenir merchants at the landmark Sacre Coeur basilica in Paris smiled at him and hailed Obama's election as a victory for them all, saying: "You are our people."

A teacher from New York who lives in Prague said she no longer hesitates to tell people she is American. "Thank God! It feels better," she said. "The people I work with give me high-fives and say things like 'You can be proud to be from your country again.' "

Steve Benen 11:20 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (62)
 
Comments

That takes me back to a tour bus in Brazil where I was roundly booed when it was discovered I was an American. Then I said I voted against Bush, and I was applauded, and made friends with Brits who really do say "Blimey!"

Posted by: Media Browski on January 16, 2009 at 11:20 AM | PERMALINK

How do you just drop the word "Ottawa" into a conversation to avoid confrontations?

Maybe something like ...
"Yeah, you're right-- the U.S. ottawa cut their greenhouse gas emissions."

Posted by: scott_m on January 16, 2009 at 11:22 AM | PERMALINK

It does sound crazy, but it is true. i live in Italy, and I have gone the whole cycle from crying with Italian colleagues during the EU minute of silence a week after 9/11, to being strongly criticized and even feigning Canadian origins in recent years, to being literally hugged by Americans and Italians alike on election night. We have turned a corner, and the world really does admire our ability to correct our own course. Now we have to stay on that course, or we go back to saying "eh?" at the end of every sentence.

Posted by: Richard Greenslade on January 16, 2009 at 11:23 AM | PERMALINK

Well it's aboot time, eh? :)

Now, if only I had any money to travel!

Posted by: doubtful on January 16, 2009 at 11:24 AM | PERMALINK

I have always proudly proclaimed my American status. I've been beaten for it, but I still do it. I was abroad for a few months during the primaries and people really were excited about Obama even then. "Do you really think he can win?", everyone would ask. I'd always tell them: "Yes he can!" They always seemed relieved by that. What amazed me was that happened in Thailand and India, too. The Thai don't usually like black people, and the Indians love Bush. But they both wanted Obama. Right now, Obama's a bigger international Rock Star than even Bill Clinton. And Clinton could draw a bigger crowd than the Pope.

Posted by: fostert on January 16, 2009 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK
David St. Onge, 57, a John McCain supporter [...] said he has noticed a change in how his Russian clients treat him.

"They seemed to think better of Americans because we elected a black man as president," [...] "They think we're more enlightened now.

That's the problem with Republicans, and especially McCain supporters. They delude themselves into thinking that Obama was elected because he is black.

They don't realize that the rest of the world is having a BIG sigh of relief because McCain did NOT get elected.

We should not let Repubs get away with the African-American assumption. Let's all remind them that: the world is happy that America finally woke up and said NO to the Republican ideology of hegemony and in-your-face politics of "you're with us or against us"

Posted by: bruno on January 16, 2009 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK

The whole world is glad to see Bush go. Makes you feel proud to be an American.

Posted by: martin on January 16, 2009 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

Bruno is absolutely right. Anyone who thinks Russians are impressed because we elected a black man, is delusional. There may be a certain PC quality to saying it, but it's a real safe bet they wouldn't have been impressed with a President Blackwell or Steele.

Posted by: Danp on January 16, 2009 at 11:33 AM | PERMALINK

It really is a lot more fun to leave the country since Nov. 4. My shoulders have unhunched and I don't look behind me as often. ;)

Posted by: shortstop on January 16, 2009 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK

I don't think the mood change is because he is black per se or because McCain did not get in. I think it is because there is a chance here of offering some moral leadership in international affairs. But Obama has to fix the two giant holes the Republicans created in Iraq and the economy first. Then he can work on moral leadership. It looks like a rough slog just to get to even. In the meantime, such supporters might get impatient. So get your hugs while you can.

Posted by: Bob M on January 16, 2009 at 11:37 AM | PERMALINK

I should add that people really do like Americans, they just don't like American policy. But they feel better now that the Most Powerful Person in the World looks a little more like them. Most of the world's people have brown skin, and now they get to have hope too. Hopefully, Obama won't disappoint them. Or us.

Posted by: fostert on January 16, 2009 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK

I've lived in a foreign country for 15 years now, and I hate to tell you, things haven't changed that much. I tell the natives that Obama is a return to sensible government policies, and all they say in return is "Go back up North, you damnyankee..."

Posted by: dr sardonicus on January 16, 2009 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK

"They seemed to think better of Americans because we elected a black man as president," he said as he walked through Red Square. "They think we're more enlightened now."

Having lived in Russia for years, this sounds very suspect to me. Russians hate Bush, but they are not very progressive on race issues. If there is any turn against anti-Americanism it's probably more due to economic downturn in Russia and the related fact that Putin and his policies are increasingly seen as failing.

Also, don't kid yourselves, lots of people don't respect Americans regardless of our political leaders. Americans tend to rub many Europeans and Asians the wrong way - we come across as boorish, arrogant and ignorant about the world - it's a long held stereotype that will take decades to dispel. Obama won't change that. For example, many Japanese will just assume British or Germans are smarter and better educated than Americans, even when that is often not the case.

Posted by: vanya on January 16, 2009 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK

Well, well - right along with Michelle Obama (blessed be his name) leftists can finally be proud of their country.

This will be a first for both Michelle and leftists.

Posted by: fred t on January 16, 2009 at 11:50 AM | PERMALINK

I was just in Mexico and when strangers asked where I was from I would say "Chicago" and, while they were preparing their witty Al Capone remark, I would add, "la ciudad de Barack Obama" which was uniformly greeted with big smiles, friendly shoulder slaps and often impromptu hugs.

(One person did say, though, "Don't you have a bad governor?" which I was forced to admit.)

Posted by: skimble on January 16, 2009 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK

I don't want to get all American-exceptionalism or anything, but I think people worldwide generally do want to see the US do well and do good -- if only because, as the 800 lb gorilla, our doing good or ill ripples through everyone's lives. Also, I think the story of America does resonate with people. People want there to be a good giant out there -- if only he wouldn't stomp on their farms! I was amazed at the (perverted) effectiveness of the Bush administration at sapping and undermining that reservoir of good feeling. I mean, ugly-American and all that contributes to it some but wow, did we lose friends fast. And you know what? We deserved it -- we acted like the big dumb drunk our (soon to be ex) President was in college, and we impressed people exactly the same way.

Posted by: Bernard HP Gilroy on January 16, 2009 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

And you know what? We deserved it -- we acted like the big dumb drunk our (soon to be ex) President was in college, and we impressed people exactly the same way.

That's the kind of leader fred t admires.

Posted by: Allan Snyder on January 16, 2009 at 11:59 AM | PERMALINK

That's the problem with Republicans, and especially McCain supporters. They delude themselves into thinking that Obama was elected because he is black.

Ha Ha

What pitiful cowards to deny their country because Americans are targets of terrorists. The anti-Bush stuff was mostly because the British think anyone with a southern accent is a moron. Clinton skated on his time at Oxford but it was all about Texas with Bush. I was traveling in Italy with a British group when the Iraq War began and we had long discussions about it.

Of course, you will believe what makes you fell better. You won't even notice when Obama adopts the Bush policies, as he is doing.

That obscene domestic spending bill that Congress just vomited out will come back to haunt him before the end of his term. Jimmy Carter redux.

Posted by: Mike K on January 16, 2009 at 12:00 PM | PERMALINK

while they were preparing their witty Al Capone remark

Hee! I do believe Obama may be the only one who can kill that monster. We enjoyed a few years of "Michael Jordan!" as respite from the Capone response, but of course that didn't last long.

Posted by: shortstop on January 16, 2009 at 12:00 PM | PERMALINK

we come across as boorish, arrogant and ignorant about the world - vanya

The two criticisms that came as a surprise to me were that we are puritanical and shallow.

By puritanical, one person explained that we are way over obsessed with sex and porn, and therefore put taboos on everything. As an example, he pointed out to children's cartoons where even animal characters have sexy physiques.

On shallow, the group described two Americans who just met each other in Europe. Since Americans talk so loud, the Swede and Dane couldn't help but overhear the conversation, which was all about the best place in Paris to get coffee, and the best place in California to buy hair conditioner.

Posted by: Danp on January 16, 2009 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK

fred t, please explain explain to the class all the things for which we should be proud of the Bush administration.

Posted by: fred t on January 16, 2009 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK

Wow, it sucks to be Mike K these days. That post was a perfect storm of bitter flailing and fingers-in-the-ears screeching. You can feel the impotent rage rising off the keyboard.

Posted by: shortstop on January 16, 2009 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK

Good one, dr sardonicus@11.48a. It took me a minute to figure it out, though.

Posted by: phoebes in santa fe on January 16, 2009 at 12:07 PM | PERMALINK

Pity that the DHS is still giving visitors to the US a hard time. Yesterday my ex told me about being detained for an hour in Vermont because the DHS people felt that her having been to China and Indonesia made her a threatening person. Idiots.

Cheers,

Alan Tomlinson

Posted by: Alan Tomlinson on January 16, 2009 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK

www.samefacts.com/archives/politics_and_leadership_/2008/11/who_cares_what_they_think.php

says it all. To quote from the day after the US election-- 5ht November 2008.

John, a British reader, sent me the following email:

This morning, in our local coffee shop (in Islington, our version perhaps of the East Village or Park Slope in NYC, more investment bankers and barristers than trendy lefties these days—but definitely a touch of ‘Stuff White People Like’), my wife saw:
- A British woman whose face was painted with the Stars and Stripes

- an American woman who said for the first time in 8 years she could stop pretending to be a Canadian

The real historical significance of this will turn out to be, I think, that a Kenyan-American rose to the presidency of the world’s largest power. Only Americans (and ill-informed Europeans) thought this story was about ‘black’ America—what it really was about was immigrant America. The children of Africa, the demographic future of the human race (roughly speaking, c.10% of the world’s population, but approaching 20% of its under 25s, even with the depredations of AIDS) are beginning to make themselves felt in the world. 3 million years after Lucy left her footprint in Olduvai Gorge, a man of Africa, whose father was born a few hundreds of miles away from Lucy, is again leaving his footprints on the human race…

I sometimes think that Americans (or their media) didn’t ‘get’ this election, in that you could not grasp the degree to which the world’s image of you as a land of something other than rule by hypocritical incestuous elites (as Europe is so ruled) and irrational hicks (like GWB), was riding on what happened. I still don’t quite believe that you found the guts to make the right choice. This was the world’s election, that happened only to grant the franchise to Americans.

It felt a bit like the day Mandela was released from prison….

In Kenya they are saying:

Ndio Tunaweza, America.

Ndio Tunaweza

(Yes. We Can. in Swahili)

Posted by: John on January 16, 2009 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

You won't even notice when Obama adopts the Bush policies, as he is doing.

Why would a Muslim Marxist black nationalist wealth-spreading socialist adopt the Bush policies...? Doesn't that seem kind of, well, odd?

Posted by: Stefan on January 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM | PERMALINK
That obscene domestic spending bill that Congress just vomited out will come back to haunt him before the end of his term. Jimmy Carter redux.

Poor Mike K - and Fred t for that matter -
The mess we're in is BECAUSE of Republican rule. Republican diehards are falling over themselves to blame Obama, and he hasn't even been in office yet. Poor schmucks.

They don't see the coincidence in the following numbers:
1) The OMB (Bush's own office) released figures last summer tauting that thanks to the Bush Tax cuts, Americans have SAVED 1.3 trillion dollars in taxes not paid.
2) the OMB (again Bush's own figures) estimates that the 2009 budget shortfall will be 1 trillion dollars.
3) A majority of economists feel that Obama's plan for $775 billion is not enough, they'd prefer up to 1.3 trillion dollars in stimulus.

Mike and Fred... I put the numbers in bold, so that you can see them clearly. Translation. The Bush administration gave 1.3 trillion mostly to the ultra rich over the last 8 years. Today congress has no other choice than to 'borrow' about 1.3 trillion (probably a lot more) to avert the Bush disaster.

Heckuva' job Mike and Fred for having voted a moron into office.

PS: don't respond by saying you didn't vote for him; which would be a scientifically proven way of people like you to deal with your decisions.

Posted by: bruno on January 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM | PERMALINK

Wow, it sucks to be Mike K these days. That post was a perfect storm of bitter flailing and fingers-in-the-ears screeching. You can feel the impotent rage rising off the keyboard.

I've always wondered how he types while keeping his fingers plugged in his ears. My guess is he's just banging his nose on the keyboard and hoping something legible comes out.

Posted by: Stefan on January 16, 2009 at 12:19 PM | PERMALINK

I hope that this works out, but I fear that if the violence in Gaza continues, and the Obama administration backs Olmert to the hilt, the international honeymoon will be over very quickly.

Posted by: Joe Buck on January 16, 2009 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK

"Having lived in Russia for years, this sounds very suspect to me. Russians hate Bush, but they are not very progressive on race issues."

The Russians are obviously not progressive on race issues. One of the few common things I've seen in my travels is a universal hatred of Russians. It's obviously very acute in the Czech Republic, but it's pretty damn strong everywhere else. So the question I would ask is this: do the Russians even like themselves? I've never been to Russia, so I don't know.

Posted by: fostert on January 16, 2009 at 12:37 PM | PERMALINK

"traveling through Italy with a Brit group"

Ah, Doc Mikey, as a go-fer groupie with a rock band playing to the Scandanavian blonde teenies at Perugia University. Foreign travel can broaden one, eh?

Posted by: berttheclock on January 16, 2009 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK

Only Americans (and ill-informed Europeans) thought this story was about "black America� what it really was about was immigrant America.

Not to toot my own horn (well, a little) but I've been saying all along that one of the reason white voters were so comfortable with Obama is that he has an immigration story just like most white people do. And most Asian people. And most Latinos. And, increasingly, a lot of African-Americans (Colin Powell is the son of immigrants from Jamaica). Unfortunately, I don't think that most voters would have been as comfortable with someone who was primarily the descendant of slaves because (like it or not), that's still a pretty raw wound that's never really been dealt with.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on January 16, 2009 at 12:39 PM | PERMALINK

I love the idiotic right wing talking points floated by limpdicks like Charles Crackhammer and some other assorted losers here, that Obama is adopting or continuing some of Bush's policies, therefore Obama has proven that Bush was right. Huh? Does every incoming president get to push the reset button? No, it doesn't work that way. Of course Obama will carry on some things Bush started, that's how govt works but that does not mean he is validating Bush's actions. It means he has to clean up the mess created by W, which of course dickhead wingnuts cannot understand because George Bush was teh bestest preznit evah bcuz he kept me and mah famlee safe...

You poor deluded fools. You still cannot wrap your pea brains around the simple fact that the entire GOP has been vaporized into nothing before your very eyes. So you make your flimsy rationalizations to help you cope with your crushing, humiliating defeat. I love it, I really do. You are trying SO hard to find a way to cope with knowing that your wretched impotent GOP is now in the dust bins for a generation to come and you are getting excited hoping Obama will trip up. Bitter much, losers?

Posted by: Brother of Mercy on January 16, 2009 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

Now, if Msrs. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Yoo, Addington, Gonzales, and their ilk will only travel abroad so that other countries legally bound to prosecute them for war crimes can bring them to justice....

Posted by: Skepticat on January 16, 2009 at 12:48 PM | PERMALINK

What pitiful cowards to deny their country because Americans are targets of terrorists.

LOL. No, they were just embarrassed to identify as Americans because they didn't want people to think that they had actually voted for an ignorant, corrupt, incompetent, lying moron--like you did.
Oh, and they hated George W. Bush (like the vast majority of Americans hate him) because he's an ignorant, corrupt, incompetent, lying moron--not because he has a southern accent. Your fictional anecdotes don't prove squat, but I understand that you wingnuts don't have much to work with these days.
Good luck with Palin in '12! LOL!

Posted by: Allan Snyder on January 16, 2009 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

I live in Spain, and yes, it is happening.

Posted by: Kathy on January 16, 2009 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK

You won't even notice when Obama adopts the Bush policies, as he is doing.

Predictions from Mike K. They always provide the perfect opportunity to go back and revisit some of his past predictions:

I agree with JJF about this not being a close election. Rasmussen also shows the public knows more about Obama than he might like. We'll see but I'm still saying 40 states for McCain.

Posted by: Mike K on June 9, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Not. Even. Close.

The raucous behavior is one more reason why the Dems will not gain seats in November.

Posted by: Mike K on February 8, 2006 at 2:01 PM

In fact, Dems swept the House, State Houses, and Governships in a historic nationwide win that year.

Kevin, does Amazon.com also qualify as an upper class luxury store ? You're trying too hard again. Brick and mortar stores are in trouble, not because the economy is bad but because on-line retailing has soared and everybody is getting cheaper prices as a result.

Posted by: Mike K on May 11, 2007 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINK

Worst economy since the Great Depression. The housing market was already tanking when Mike wrote this and seven months later the economy officially entered a recession.

That's the difference and that's why the Democrats can't win national elections.

Posted by: Mike K on February 17, 2006 at 1:54 PM

A candidate from which party is being sworn in this week?

As for southeast Asia, the one place that hasn't prospered is Vietnam. Does that tell you anything ?

Posted by: Mike K on February 17, 2006 at 4:46 PM

Vietnam has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world during this century, with yearly GDP upwards of a stunning 8% -- unlike the U.S. Whoopsie! Not a prediction, just evidence of Mike's ignorance and willingness to trade in falsehoods.

Posted by: trex on January 16, 2009 at 1:08 PM | PERMALINK

"...the British think anyone with a southern accent is a moron..."

Does that include the British who speak with that accent? It is, after all, a British accent -- 200 years obsolete, but still hanging on in places.

Posted by: Forrest on January 16, 2009 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK

I was in Indonesia a few weeks ago (Bali and Sarong) and the people are very enthusiastic about Obama, who they consider to be sort of an adopted Indonesian.

On the way home my wife and I were accosted by a group of kids handing out "fee hugs" outside of Taipei 101. Probably just a coincident, but it felt good to be liked again.

Posted by: J. Frank Parnell on January 16, 2009 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK

We're like the Munchkins after the house dropped on to the Wicked Witch of the East.

Posted by: Saint Zak on January 16, 2009 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK

For the past few years Lisa Simpson has had a maple leaf flag on her backpack whenever the family journeys abroad. It will be interesting to see if she now replaces it.

Posted by: The Sophist on January 16, 2009 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK

The only anecdotes I can add are that the Europeans I met in Europe in October were all rooting for Obama. Plus, Indians were pretty happy that Obama won.

Posted by: American Citizen on January 16, 2009 at 1:44 PM | PERMALINK

"The people I work with give me high-fives and say things like 'You can be proud to be from your country again.' "

I have two reactions to this. The first reaction is "who the fuck are you to tell me when I should or shouldn't be proud of my country?"

And the second is "What the hell is the point of being proud of being from a country?"

The second reaction wins out. Patriotism is like being proud of the local sports team. Completely irrational.

Posted by: mk on January 16, 2009 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

Plus, Indians were pretty happy that Obama won.

A friend of mine works for a majority Indian-owned and staffed company here in the States. The day after the election the employees literally danced in the halls and celebrated.

Posted by: trex on January 16, 2009 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK

We were traveling in Europe in spring, 2007. My husband wears a black neoprene "F*ck Bush" bracelet. Whenever a train attendant or a waiter started to give us attitude about being American, he would simply lift his sleeve to show the bracelet. We were treated as equals again, and in fact many Europeans asked how they could get the bracelet too.

I wonder if the right-wing will find "F*uck Obama" gear any where near as useful...

Posted by: Karen on January 16, 2009 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK

trex has done us a fine public service in the humor department by posting some of Mike K's Greatest Hits: Prediction Category, but I distinctly remember that Mike was insisting about one week before the election that McCain would sweep in a surprise upset that would humiliate every pollster in America.

Really, what do you do with a guy like that except crack up and pass the inauguration snacks?

Posted by: shortstop on January 16, 2009 at 2:26 PM | PERMALINK

Hate to disagree Mike K but Brits generally love Texans. We've had many a round of great free ales at a few pubs to prove it! They had very good reason to dislike Bush because he was an awful President and world leader (ha). And anyway, the Dixie Chicks made an honorable stand for us Texans years ago while playing a concert in London.

Posted by: whichwitch on January 16, 2009 at 2:26 PM | PERMALINK

I live in Grenada, West Indies and when we wear our Obama gear we get high fives, fist bumps, and shout outs. No hugs, but maybe that's because it's pretty hot here!

Posted by: Hope on January 16, 2009 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK

Instead of saying I am from America, I used to say California. Somehow I hoped that it would make a difference to some, being consistently blue. Besides, I could never get the Canadian accent down.

Posted by: e henry thripshaw on January 16, 2009 at 4:00 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks for being a busy beaver in research.

You won't even notice when Obama adopts the Bush policies, as he is doing.

Predictions from Mike K. They always provide the perfect opportunity to go back and revisit some of his past predictions:

I agree with JJF about this not being a close election. Rasmussen also shows the public knows more about Obama than he might like. We'll see but I'm still saying 40 states for McCain.
Posted by: Mike K on June 9, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Not. Even. Close.

Note the date. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd hadn't torpedoed the economy yet.

The raucous behavior is one more reason why the Dems will not gain seats in November.
Posted by: Mike K on February 8, 2006 at 2:01 PM

In fact, Dems swept the House, State Houses, and Governships in a historic nationwide win that year.

I'll give you that one but, again, it was early in the year. In fact, I'm surprised to see the quote (I trust you) because by summer, I was pretty sure it was going to be a bad year. And said so here.


Kevin, does Amazon.com also qualify as an upper class luxury store ? You're trying too hard again. Brick and mortar stores are in trouble, not because the economy is bad but because on-line retailing has soared and everybody is getting cheaper prices as a result.
Posted by: Mike K on May 11, 2007 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINK

Worst economy since the Great Depression. The housing market was already tanking when Mike wrote this and seven months later the economy officially entered a recession.

Is that an imaginary recession like you guys always quote ? Look at the economic numbers and you will see there was none except in your mind. You might also look at what is happening to Circuit City with Best Buy right behind. Amazon is posting huge numbers. I grant you the housing market but Amazon and other on-line retailers were still doing fine.

That's the difference and that's why the Democrats can't win national elections.
Posted by: Mike K on February 17, 2006 at 1:54 PM

A candidate from which party is being sworn in this week?

Again, that was early in 2006. By summer, I knew it was not a GOP year. Libertarian Republicans like me have been complaining about spending about spending since early in Bush's first term. I think Hastert is the worst Speaker in the 20th century.

As for southeast Asia, the one place that hasn't prospered is Vietnam. Does that tell you anything ?
Posted by: Mike K on February 17, 2006 at 4:46 PM

Vietnam has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world during this century, with yearly GDP upwards of a stunning 8% -- unlike the U.S. Whoopsie! Not a prediction, just evidence of Mike's ignorance and willingness to trade in falsehoods.

Posted by: trex

Eight percent of zilch is still not an economy. They are selling cheap coffee full of leaves and other rip offs. I hope you are not comparing them to South Korea, Singapore or the other free economies.

Why don't you, since you are into it, go back and find Kevin's predictions of Bush cutting and running from Iraq the summer of 2004 and his predictions about the election not being held? You could compare our different opinions there.

Posted by: Mike K on January 16, 2009 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK

It's reasonable to assume that the next Pew global poll will show favorable ratings for Americans increase..

Pew poll

Posted by: Andy on January 16, 2009 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK

So basically what you're saying, Mike, is that it doesn't matter if you made predictions that turned out to be wrong because you can't be responsible if you didn't anticipate all the factors that could affect the reliability of your predictions?

Priceless.

That's simply called "being bad at making predictions."

Is that an imaginary recession like you guys always quote ? Look at the economic numbers and you will see there was none except in your mind.

Well, in our minds and in the minds of the National Bureau of Economic Research and confirmed by the Bush White House.

Hello -- the economy doesn't all of a sudden go bad in a month. The housing bubble began deflating in local markets in 2005 taking the rest of the economy with it. Just because the conservative consensus at the time was that everything was OK doesn't exonerate your failures to see what was happening.

I was pretty sure it was going to be a bad year. And said so here.

Cite?

Eight percent of zilch is still not an economy. They are selling cheap coffee full of leaves and other rip offs.

So you're going to ignore the second highest economic growth in all of SE Asia because you don't personally care for the products being manufactured??? And you're going to pretend that Vietnam doesn't produce textiles, chemicals, and electronics???

Sorry you were so wrong about the state of Vietnam's economy in 2006, damaging your pet political theories. I just don't know how to fix that for you.

Why don't you, since you are into it, go back and find Kevin's predictions of Bush cutting and running from Iraq the summer of 2004 and his predictions about the election not being held? You could compare our different opinions there.

Actually, in 2005 you were predicting a drop in troop numbers to 75,000 over the next year as well as a reduction in violence, as opposed to the surge that actually took place in response to an incredible upswing in violence.

I don't need to compare your predictions with Kevin's. I just produced four instances in which you were wildly off base on issues of war, politics, and economics. That is more than sufficient to cast doubt on your present prognostications.

Posted by: trex on January 16, 2009 at 5:03 PM | PERMALINK

So basically what you're saying, Mike, is that it doesn't matter if you made predictions that turned out to be wrong because you can't be responsible if you didn't anticipate all the factors that could affect the reliability of your predictions? Priceless. That's simply called "being bad at making predictions."

Also, if the quality of your predictions depends on having all available facts at hand, then they're aren't really predictions, are they? They're merely re-stating commonly agreed on certainties.

Posted by: Stefan on January 16, 2009 at 5:55 PM | PERMALINK

Joe Buck: I hope that this works out, but I fear that if the violence in Gaza continues, and the Obama administration backs Olmert to the hilt, the international honeymoon will be over very quickly.

Obama will change little of what the foreign Bush opponents object to.

1. He will support the continued existence and military power of Israel. In fact, he said so.

2. He will object to a treaty, like Kyoto, that does not impose limits on China or recognize the CO2-sequestering value of America's growing forests (at least, that's what he said.)

3. Increases in U.S. support for AIDS treatments in Africa will be only slightly enlarged from Bush levels, and Obama will continue the American inaction in Darfur, Congo, and Zimbabwe.

4. Obama will continue the American troop presence in Iraq and enlarge American troop presence in Afghanistan, and increase cross-border military action into Pakistan (at least, that is what he said he will do.)

5. Obama will slightly enhance federal support for R&D in alternative energy, compared to Bush levels, and the increase will hardly be noticed compared to the great amounts of private funding now pouring into alternative energy development. Obama has said that he will push clean coal development, and that is going to disappoint greens all over the world.

6. The CIA will continue to use coercive interrogation techniques, but not waterboarding. The practices associated with Cheney may be critiqued in a report about 18 months hence, but almost all of them will continue as before.

7. Obama will continue the military prison in Guantanamo until foreign nations have agreed to accept all the prisoners.

I like Obama the man, but most of what foreigners disliked about Bush they will continue to dislike about the U.S. after Obama is president. Put differently, Obama is better PR for the U.S. than Bush has been, but the product is mostly unchanged.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on January 16, 2009 at 6:35 PM | PERMALINK

I like Obama the man, but most of what foreigners disliked about Bush they will continue to dislike about the U.S. after Obama is president. Put differently, Obama is better PR for the U.S. than Bush has been, but the product is mostly unchanged.

Three months ago you said Obama was a socialist and a modern FDR. Now he's neocon George Bush redux in liberal clothing? I know it's hard to reconcile all those anguished voices in your head. Probably not best to let different ones post here.

Posted by: trex on January 16, 2009 at 6:55 PM | PERMALINK

Three months ago you said Obama was a socialist and a modern FDR. Now he's neocon George Bush redux in liberal clothing?

Obama said that he wanted to be a modern FDR. His policy recommendations were the most socialistic of major party candidates since Henry Wallace. Obama said that he wanted to keep troops in Iraq "for some time". Obama said that he wanted to increase U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan and increase cross-border incursion into Pakistan. Obama said that he would not support a GHG treaty that did not have restrictions on emissions in China and India. Obama said that it may take his entire first term to shut down the prison at Guantanamo.

In the upcoming months we'll see how much Obama changes policy on the policies that foreigners don't like. Won't we? We'll keep a running tally, as we did with Iraqi electricity production and the thousands of al Qaeda who fled Baghdad at the start of the surge. It's not like anybody here is always right. Is it?

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on January 16, 2009 at 8:10 PM | PERMALINK

See, here's the difference. George Bush was NEVER going to shut down Guantanamo while Obama has made it a priority to shut it down as soon as possible.

Those policies are worlds apart.

George Bush had NO interest in addressing climate change; he even denied it for years, while Obama acknowledges it as a serious issue and intends on tackling it.

Those policies are worlds apart.

George Bush said withdrawing troops from Iraq would be giving victory to the enemy and fought for permanent bases, while Obama put forth a sixteen-month withdrawal plan similar to very the one the Iraqis eventually forced on Bush. Obama not only plans to withdraw those troops as agreed upon with the Iraqis he has requested and received a plan for an even more immediate withdrawal.

There could not be a sharper contrast.

Bush ordered the torture of men not convicted of any crimes and even innocent men and defended it as necessary: Obama has already said that he will end waterboarding AND "coercive interrogation techniques."

This is the difference between war crimes and reversing a policy of war crimes.

As for your assertions about how much Obama will inves in R&D or AIDS relief -- that's just groundless, asinine posturing, which of course you know.

It is for these reasons and others that your assertion that Obama is like Bush is patently absurd. He is a remarkably different person with an admirable personal philosophy, one which he has put into practice all his life. And it is nothing like Bush's. Americans know it, the world knows it, and you know it. You're just being histrionic as usual, trying to muddy the waters for god knows what psychological reason.

We will definitely be keeping a tally. Hey, it only took four years of you being wrong on electrical production in Iraq for it to finally get to the level where you had been claiming it was all along. Probably because in your breathtaking ignorance you thought the insurgents weren't attacking the infrastructure. But that's gotta count for something, right?

Posted by: trex on January 16, 2009 at 8:53 PM | PERMALINK

It is for these reasons and others that your assertion that Obama is like Bush is patently absurd. He is a remarkably different person with an admirable personal philosophy, one which he has put into practice all his life. And it is nothing like Bush's. Americans know it, the world knows it, and you know it

The men are different, but the policies that I listed are nearly identical. The attributes of American that foreigners don't like will persist.

When Obama does close down the Gitmo prison, there will be anguish and consternation about what happens to the prisoners, unless he secretly transfers them all to Saudi Arabia (or some such), in which they'll disappear from public comment and no one will care about them any longer. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow again.

See you around.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on January 16, 2009 at 11:52 PM | PERMALINK

The men are different, but the policies that I listed are nearly identical

Clearly they're not, as I've shown. You've tried to blur the differences with semantics to make them appear similar and it's a transparent botch.

Point 1 is just fatuous nonsense because outside of a few countries in the middle east the rest of the world recognizes Israel's right to exist. You may as well predict that Obama will also continue to call the sky blue just as Bush did. So what? Will Obama make more progress than Bush in mediating this conflict? It's anybody's guess, but probably. I have a houseplant that's done more for the peace process than Bush.

On points 5, 6, 7, and half of 4 you've already been proven empirically wrong. There's no debate. You are simply making claims which are refuted by the facts in evidence. I can began posting the dramatic difference in alternative energy investment between the two based on Obama's stimulus plan -- it's not even close. And you're wrong about the level of private investment in the current economy but that's just par for the course.

That 2 and 3, which are just unsupportable predictions. Even Obama can't predict how he'll react to events as they unfold as they rely on all sorts of economic and political variables.

Try as you might, there is no raining on this parade. Bush is a tragicomic failure of colossal proportions, as are many of his supporters for putting ego and tribalism above sanity. Just as Clinton was wildly more popular than Bush with the rest of the world, Obama is going to be wildly more popular than Bush with the rest of the world, and the goodwill has already begun.

Yes, you will eat crow for the umpteenth time. I really held back this time. It won't happen again.

Posted by: trex on January 17, 2009 at 12:23 AM | PERMALINK

My husband and I are from the US and are currently living in Amsterdam for a year. Our daughter is doing a university year abroad in Paris and has a part-time job teaching English at a Paris high school. We have all benefited from the approbation Obama's election has brought.

My husband is doing research at a university medical center here. The day after the election, people he barely knew kept giving him big smiles and a literal pat-on-the-back as he walked down the hall at work (pretty close to a hug, right?)

That evening we were in a local restaurant. The two elderly Dutch gentlemen at the table next to us, when they heard us speaking English, asked if we were from the States (the Dutch often assume we're British). When we confirmed that we were Americans, they both got up from their table, shook our hands, and delivered earnest comments about how "America is a place to look up to again". They went even further and said that they "didn't think a story like Obama's could happen in most of Europe" and that the "US is serving as a real role model".

Our daughter had many similar stories to tell about the reactions of both the students and the teaching staff at the high school where she works in Paris.

It's fun being in a position to take personal credit for the entire election. We try to be modest about it.

Posted by: SFE on January 17, 2009 at 3:52 AM | PERMALINK

This brings back memories. I was in the Army, stationed in Germany, during the Vietnam-Watergate period. When I went off base in civilian clothes, I wore a cap with a Canadian flag pin to head off confrontations. It didn't always do the trick.

Posted by: allbetsareoff on January 17, 2009 at 11:20 AM | PERMALINK

My mother found out all you had to do was explain you were a Democrat and disliked Bush and you got that same camaraderie.

They never disliked Americans as a class. they just could never be sure which kind you were until you openly criticized the chimp usurper.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on January 18, 2009 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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