Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

January 27, 2009

AN ACTUAL CBO REPORT ON STIMULUS.... The report from the Congressional Budget Office, purportedly showing that the Democrats' stimulus proposal would be ineffective, did not actually exist. A more reliable document really was released by the CBO late yesterday, however, and the results are far more encouraging. Indeed, the CBO found that implementing the stimulus plan "would have a noticeable impact on economic growth and employment in the next few years."

Kevin Drum took a closer look at the numbers and came away with a positive impression.

Specifically, they estimate that in the spending portion of the bill, $477 billion out of $604 billion would be disbursed either this fiscal year or in the next two fiscal years. That's 79% of the total.

I guess opinions can vary on this, but that strikes me as pretty good. What's more, most of the spending that comes in FY2012 or later is either for projects that simply take more than two years to complete (highways, school repairs) or infrastructure improvements that have long-term paybacks (renewable energy programs). There are a few other items in the out years that are more arguable, but they add up to a pretty small portion of the bill.

Overall, then, it looks like the spending part of the bill is maybe 90% clean as short-term stimulus. And on the supply side, nearly 100% of the tax cuts are allocated during the next 18 months. Given the realities of the appropriations process, I'm not sure the White House could have done much better than this.

While Kevin's analysis rings true, the number we're likely to hear most is "two-thirds" -- as in, "Approximately two-thirds of the spending and tax cuts contained in an economic stimulus package crafted by House Democrats would flow into the economy by the end of fiscal 2010."

As for the "slowest" parts of the package, the CBO analysis notes a variety of factors, including "seasonal" concerns -- school renovations are better over the summer, and highway construction in the north over the winter is inherently tricky.

What's more, I'm also reminded of something Paul Krugman noted over the weekend: those portions of the stimulus plan that'll kick in later might help, too, since the economy will need ongoing boosts. "[W]e're looking at a situation where even if some of the projects are continuing to add spending two years out, two-and-a half, even three years out, that's not such a bad thing," Krugman explained.

The original CBO "report" got all kinds of attention, not just from Republican officials and conservative activists: "ThinkProgress has found that since the AP's report last Tuesday, the CBO report has been cited at least 81 times on Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, the Sunday shows and the network newscasts in order raise questions about Obama's recovery plan."

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?

Steve Benen 8:35 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (13)

Bookmark and Share
 
Comments

"The original CBO "report" got all kinds of attention, not just from Republican officials and conservative activists: "ThinkProgress has found that since the AP's report last Tuesday, the CBO report has been cited at least 81 times on Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, the Sunday shows and the network newscasts in order raise questions about Obama's recovery plan."

"Will the actual report get this kind of attention?"

After all this time you have to ask? Anytime a Democrat or a REAL Economist will bring this up, they won't get played on air ANYWHERE.

Look, its Rod Blagoavitch. Look, Obama has fired Bush's US Attorneys and the poor babies cannot find a job!! BO better keep them until the economy gets better.

Posted by: goalkeeper on January 27, 2009 at 8:45 AM | PERMALINK

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?
No. Anyone who saw Paul Krugman discussing economics with the panel on ABC's "This Week" knows that the bloviating class won't let facts get in their way.

Posted by: Reverend Dennis on January 27, 2009 at 8:56 AM | PERMALINK

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?

Nn,...

Ooooh, shiny!

Posted by: David W. on January 27, 2009 at 9:16 AM | PERMALINK

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?

It depends. Does the report say anything about contraceptives?

Posted by: AndrewBW on January 27, 2009 at 9:18 AM | PERMALINK

Steve says: "Will the actual report get this kind of attention?"

I'm not sure you want this kind of attention. The Washington Post (Lori Montgomery),
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/26/AR2009012602088.html
first writes:

"Approximately two-thirds of the spending and tax cuts contained in an economic stimulus package crafted by House Democrats would flow into the economy by the end of fiscal 2010."

Then it says:

"The final analysis is only slightly different from a preliminary CBO cost estimate that drew wide attention after it was released last week by congressional Republicans. GOP lawmakers seized on the earlier numbers,..."

Posted by: DaleP on January 27, 2009 at 9:19 AM | PERMALINK

Let all those who oppose economic recovery by opposing President Obama's economic stimulus play show all America their reasons through honest debate!

So far, Boehner and his crowd of far-right Republicans have been quick to pounce on incomplete data and perceived fear to smear what I see as an earnest effort for both economic stimulus and bi-partisanship by the Obama Administration.

Congressional Republicans up for re-election in 2010 (all House members, and a few who aren't retiring in the Senate) need to be informed loud and clear of our watchful eyes, and ask themselves a question: If I obstruct this common sense measure needed in this time of urgency, will I face early retirement in 2010?

An honest answer to that question may get more Republicans on board! -Kevo

Posted by: kevo on January 27, 2009 at 9:24 AM | PERMALINK

After a cursery reading of the 23 page pdf, I think we need to fundamentally revise what this bill does. Much of it falls into the "don't let 'em starve" category. That will have a somewhat stimulative effect, though primarily in food, health, and perhaps education fields. It will be immediate, but not overly expansive.

Then there are the tax cuts, which will allow people to somewhat maintain their lifestyles, assuming they don't lose jobs, and assuming we don't have significant inflation. It also is somewhat stimulative, though again, not expansive.

Finally, there are the infrastructure improvements, which should have more long term benefits, but will not provide an immediate panacea.

Those looking for an immediate cure to our economic problems won't find them here. But those who think this is just a panaply of pork are truly deluded. And the argument that not enough gets spent quickly enough is disingenuous, unless combined with a magic bullet solution.

Posted by: Danp on January 27, 2009 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?

From Drudge and the so-called "liberal media" whose world he rules?

No. SASQ.

Posted by: Gregory on January 27, 2009 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

Will the actual report get this kind of attention?

You have obviously been living in a cave somewhere for the last 8+ years. If Drudge says its important than maybe. I suspect it won't be getting any play there, so expect the media to ignore it.

Posted by: SnarkyShark on January 27, 2009 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK

But those who think this is just a panaply of pork are truly deluded
Being one of the afore mentioned. You are leaving this shit ball for your children. There is no money to spend,regardless if it is a good idea or not. This country is bankrupt. The Democrats that are crowing now will be brought down by their own hubris. I hope Obama is a centerist. If the Republicans have no input they should vote prsent instead of no. This will show the Democrats have no more grasp of reality than any one else. Two years is a short time if you eat on a regular schedule. I suspect there is going to be some agitated voters come 2010 that have lost the dream.

Posted by: EC Sedgwick on January 27, 2009 at 12:52 PM | PERMALINK

EC Sedgwick - Natural depreciation is not a solution. But that is exactly what happens when you cut taxes and fail to improve infrastructure. That was the Republican strategy, and it hasn't changed. Right now the government will have to borrow money to rejuvenate the economy. And hopefully, once they do that they will raise taxes in a fair way to pay for it.

Pick a country around the world that you think operates well - one that you think you would want to live in. Look at their tax and spend policies (by clicking on the country name), and you will see a pattern. If you think the Republicans tax policies are good, may I suggest Russia, China, India, Iran or Venezuela. Stay away from Western Europe, Canada, Australia or Japan.

Posted by: Danp on January 27, 2009 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK

Nuber one. I never said cut taxes.Number two I am a citizen of this country and a veteran. I do not owe any one money. If it was me I would tax the shit out of everybody. The government would not borrow. Sooner or later the citizens and the government would understand pay as you go and the wish list of the lobbist would desendigrate.I don't give a shit about how other countries operate. I care about this one.The ones running their mouth perfer to use other peoples money and bitch about people that accomplish goals. Unless you are fiscaly sound and don't need a hand out your advise is hot air. Live with in your means!

Posted by: EC Sedgwick on January 27, 2009 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINK

There is no money to spend,regardless if it is a good idea or not. This country is bankrupt.
Posted by: EC Sedgwick

How true. We've been drunk on spending for a long time, and now going on a final splurge before we hit bottom and have to admit we're addicted. Even if we manage to borrow a couple of trillion dollars, credit is no substitute for wealth and the capability to generate wealth, now gone to China as we morph from a producing country to a consuming country.

Posted by: Luther on January 28, 2009 at 1:54 AM | PERMALINK




 

 

Read Jonathan Rowe remembrance and articles
Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

Advertise in WM



buy from Amazon and
support the Monthly


Place Your Link Here

--- Links ---

Boarding Schools

Addiction Treatment Centers

Alcohol Treatment Center

Bad Credit Loan

Long Distance Moving Companies

FREE Phone Card

Flowers

Personal Loan

Addiction Treatment

Phone Cards

Less Debt = Financial Freedom

Addiction Treatment Programs