Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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February 10, 2009

UNWELCOME UNCERTAINTY.... Just nine days ago, Paul Krugman had heard rumors about what might be in Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's financial rescue plan, and wrote a column blasting some of the possible provisions. Today, we learned at least a bit more about Geithner's agenda, and Krugman doesn't seem quite as discouraged.

The plan deserves praise for what isn't in it, at least as far as I can tell. There doesn't seem to be provision for mass purchases of toxic waste at premium prices; there also doesn't seem to be a massive "ring-fencing" guarantee against private losses on bad assets. In that sense the plan is better than what the last few weeks of leaks led us to expect.

What is in it, in reverse order:

1. Super-TALF: a big expansion of the Fed's quantitative easing, with Treasury backing. I'm OK with that.

2. Private-public purchases of questionable assets; as I understand it, private investors would be the junior partners, so this is probably not a big giveaway (unless there's huge public financing, in which case it amounts to ring-fencing after all). I also suspect it wouldn't accomplish much, but no harm, no foul.

3. Stress test: everything depends on how this is actually implemented. What happens if, or more likely when, a major money center bank is stress-tested and found to have negative net worth? One possibility is that the auditors are told to come up with a different answer; that's a big concern. The other is that the bank is effectively nationalized; as I read the language that could be achieved as part of the public capital injection.

I obviously can't read Krugman's mind, but I get the sense his reaction to the policy can be summarized as, "Coulda been worse."

The broader problem, though, is that Geithner's speech didn't resolve much. In fact, looking over the reactions to the plan, there's apparently one point of agreement: Geithner still hasn't actually outlined a concrete plan. He has some ideas, some beliefs, and a few good things to say about transparency, but the Treasury Secretary's speech was supposed to answer questions. Instead, it raised quite a few.

Krugman sounded cautiously optimistic, but conceded he doesn't "really know" what the plan is. That's a surprisingly common sentiment -- Simon Johnson, the former chief economist for the IMF, said, "This is not a plan. In the annals of plan-announcing, this is very vague."

Johnson added that "The market is responding to vagueness." Yes, and it's not responding very well.

Steve Benen 4:15 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (13)
 
Comments

The market is reacting poorly because they were hoping that Geithner would be as big a fool as Paulson and sign over the entire Treasury to our capitalist heroes. Any delay of that, even if vague, lessens its likelihood.

Posted by: calling all toasters on February 10, 2009 at 4:16 PM | PERMALINK

I can see the One didn't want to answer any questions yesterday about his administration's "financial rescue plan" since it was made crystal clear by the tax cheat that no such plan exists.

What a pathetic performance by the guy who was "indispensable" and had to be Treasury Secretary. Yeah, he'll be a lot better at handling TARP II, III and IV than Paulson. LOL

Posted by: Chicounsel on February 10, 2009 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

Uncertainty seems to be a good thing is it reduces the expectation of the citizens for a bailout.

There is a problem, right in front of our noses. We are unable to see it because it involves some risky restructuring of government.

I guess we will have to learn to live with hysteria until we can calmly look for the bottleneck in our economy.

Posted by: MattYoung on February 10, 2009 at 4:33 PM | PERMALINK

Simon Johnson has said that the stock market going down in response to the speech is a good thing. It means that they are expecting the stress test to be real, and the Federal money for Paulson's golfing buddies is over. Good!

Posted by: Eric on February 10, 2009 at 4:45 PM | PERMALINK

Right, need to look at how financial stocks did. If the market thinks existing, private holders are going to get dilluted to hell byy massive government conversion to common stock (i.e., nationalization), bank stocks will fall like stones. On the other hand, if the investor class read the plan as one that would let the offenders off the hook, the market would have risen. Always the follow the money.

Posted by: Marc on February 10, 2009 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK

As expected, Geithner is as precise about the plan as he was about filing his taxes.

Posted by: exlibra on February 10, 2009 at 5:26 PM | PERMALINK

If the market is any guarantee, Geithner got it exactly right. I just love the word stress test applied to the banking industry. I have visions of John Thain being waterboarded. Bottom line, Geithner just told the banking industry that the Treasury would eat anyone who wasn't health and help the rest to get healthy after they'd taken a good dose or two of chemotherapy. As usual, all there is is bitching from left (nationalize them) and right (let them fail).

Posted by: Scott F on February 10, 2009 at 5:37 PM | PERMALINK

The good news is that the markets hated this plan! This is very good news. Also, the Fed will takeover the consumer lending market. I think that Obama has decided to replace the banks, which is easy if you can print money.

Posted by: tomj on February 10, 2009 at 5:42 PM | PERMALINK

"Coulda been better, too"

I'm sorta wondering what the point of today's big announcement was.

Posted by: bcinaz on February 10, 2009 at 6:16 PM | PERMALINK

Krugman is bending over backwards to be polite. So instead of his usual in-your-face critical analysis, he buries his objections in the details.

As to the private-public purchases of questionable assets, he allows that any huge public financing will amount to ring-fencing after all.

But there WILL be huge public financing.

As to the stress test, he says that auditors of major money center banks who are found to have negative net worth might be told to come up with a different answer and that's a big concern.

But they WILL be told to come up with a different answer.

I have NO faith whatsoever that private capital can be attracted without HUGE public financing, nor that an valuation of assets that is fair to taxpayers will be performed.

Not with Geithner and his cronies in charge.


Posted by: Econobuzz on February 10, 2009 at 6:56 PM | PERMALINK

Steven Pearlstein just spoke very well to the Bailout Plan on 'Hardball'.

Posted by: Jane on February 10, 2009 at 7:41 PM | PERMALINK

The problem is that the government is not even attempting to address the root of the problem....i.e. declining real estate values.

After all, these toxic assets were not always toxic, and they will not be toxic indefinitely into the future. What the government should be instead of throwing money at banks is buying up bad mortgages and shoring up real estate values. This will not only reduce the toxicity of CDO's, but will also reliquify the market for them, with the side benefit of allowing thousands of people who would otherwise be evicted to stay in their homes.

At the same time, the government should be doing everything in it's power to increase demand for housing, including expanding immigration and putting a moratorium on new real estate construction.

Once the real estate market gets back on track, all those toxic assets will no longer be quite so toxic anymore, and the financial system will right itself on its own.

Posted by: mfw13 on February 11, 2009 at 8:46 AM | PERMALINK

I'm starting to thing that the vagueness and opacity is part of the plan. Too much clarity about anything and the Wall St. drama queens are bound to overreact massively.

Posted by: Mo MacArbie on February 11, 2009 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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