February 23, 2009
AFTER A MONTH.... Gallup released its latest survey this morning, showing President Obama's approval rating at 63%, "down slightly from his initial 68% rating in January."
I should note from the outset that a modest drop in a president's first month isn't worth getting too excited about. A 63% approval rating is still, obviously, quite strong, and higher than most modern presidents at this point in their first terms.
What's interesting, though, is why Obama dropped a bit.
If Gallup's numbers are right, Obama has seen his support go up over his first month with Democrats and Independents, but his overall number fell because he's lost Republican support. The report noted, "More precisely, the steepest drop in approval of Obama has come from conservative Republicans, whose support descended from 36% in his first, partial week on the job (Jan. 21-25) to 22% by his fourth week (Feb. 9-15)."
This is to be expected. Obama enjoyed some GOP support early on, but it dissipated once the president started governing and Republican lawmakers (and their allies) started criticizing. Since the president's numbers actually improved among everyone else, it shouldn't trouble the White House too much to lose support from, as Eric Kleefeld noted, "people who were unlikely to have approved of him in the first place."
I'm skeptical that the president's overall numbers have too big an impact right now. A month is, after all, only a month. But if Republicans were watching these numbers, hoping to see a decline they could exploit in the wake of the stimulus debate, they're probably disappointed right now.
—Steve Benen 10:35 AM
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Rotpublicans are a biological minority. They have made no effort to evolve, having painted great big Kick-Me-I'm-Stupid signs on their foreheads, and will eventually become an extinct species as the more dominant reality-based community devours them every time an election cycle rolls around.
Now you know why they hate Darwin so much!
Posted by: Steve W. on February 23, 2009 at 10:42 AM | PERMALINK
A drop in Obama's popularity among conservative GOP types merely reflects the loud, knuckleheaded pride with which that wing of the party opposed the stimulus bill. They heard people like Ritter and McConnel pontificating through the MSM echo chamber about how bad it was and were moved to reaffirm their support for nonsense.
Posted by: Richard Greenslade on February 23, 2009 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK
If you think Obama can win reelection without the votes of Republicans, be my guest. We haven't completely lost our national mind yet and conservatives are still a majority in this country. No need to thank me for this information.
Posted by: Myke K on February 23, 2009 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK
It will be interesting to see the reaction among conservative Republicans to the GOP governors, many of whom have been supportive of the stimulus package and complimentary toward President Obama. Even those southern governors who have gotten press hits for saying they will not take some stimulus money (actually, for defensible reasons) will take most of it.
The political rules for governors have always been different than for Washington legislators, because people vote for different reasons in gubernatorial elections than they do in Congressional ones. The national party's pressure to be unified in opposition to Obama and his program, though, has been intense enough that it could well inspire a backlash in some states against Republican governors prepared to go the other way.
Posted by: Zathras on February 23, 2009 at 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
Approval by those making more than $7500 per month has only dropped from 66% to 64%. Why aren't the rich afraid of Obama? The biggest drop, by income was from 69-58% among those making $5000-$7500 per month. (Of course it is possible that many who were above $7500 last month have fallen into the lower range.)
Posted by: tomj on February 23, 2009 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
"it shouldn't trouble the White House too much to lose support from, as Eric Kleefeld noted, "people who were unlikely to have approved of him in the first place."
S?B It doesn't trouble Obama much to lose support from Conservative Republicans who were unlikely to support him,and as a political group are unliked by every other political group.
Repug Conservatives deserve a long journey to the desert to learn where they have gone so wrong
and how to re-enter the reality of today.
Posted by: barkleyg on February 23, 2009 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
Even those southern governors who have gotten press hits for saying they will not take some stimulus money (actually, for defensible reasons)
Yeah, depriving your struggling citizens of unemployment benefits because of a totally mythical requirement that the state lege will "have to" continue those benefits in three years is really defensible...if you've fallen down the rabbit hole of thinking that staking out any position against Democrats, no matter how ludicrous, is the goal.
The national party's pressure to be unified in opposition to Obama and his program, though, has been intense enough that it could well inspire a backlash in some states against Republican governors prepared to go the other way.
It's far more likely that the backlash will be against the Republicans in Congress. We're already seeing it in the polls, and the ads for coming campaigns pretty much write themselves.
Posted by: shortstop on February 23, 2009 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK
"conservatives are still a majority in this country."
Conservative Republicans and media commentators spent all campaign painting Barack Obama as a secretly-Muslim, anti-business, pro-socialist, terrorist-loving, America-hating liberal/radical Democrat, yet Obama owes his election to conservative voters. Yep.
On issue after issue, public opinion polls show that American voters take a strongly moderate if not liberal stance. General support for the Republican Party is the lowest it's been in decades, especially so among younger voters and independents, the Republican Party is virtually extinct in New England in Congress, the Democrats made strong gains in states that have been GOP strongholds for years such as Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia, but all this means to you is that conservatives still hold the balance of power. Your Koolaid is spiked.
Posted by: bluestatedon on February 23, 2009 at 11:20 AM | PERMALINK
If you think Obama can win reelection without the votes of Republicans, be my guest. We haven't completely lost our national mind yet and conservatives are still a majority in this country. No need to thank me for this information.
This has been disproved many times. Better trolls, please.
Posted by: msmolly on February 23, 2009 at 11:23 AM | PERMALINK
If you think Obama can win reelection without the votes of Republicans, be my guest. We haven't completely lost our national mind yet and conservatives are still a majority in this country. No need to thank me for this information.
Posted by: Myke K
Let's unpack this a bit, shall we, Mikey?
(1)---He already won election without the Rotpublicans; I'm confident he'll win reelection with an even higher percentage, based on the sour stomachs within your own "tent" (if you call that raggedy-looking blanket of lies draped over an old "country-first" campfire tripod-esque cliche a "tent") who are fleeing your pet rock's asinine rhetoric. If Cantor's the best you've got, then by all means---bring it, child. I'd love to see you make Goldwater's '64 thrashing look like "decisive victory...."
(2)---"Losing a national mind" first requires, as a prerequisite, the possession of a national mind. You never had one; therefore, you've not got one now....
(3)---"Conservative," as it applies to your mode of think-ology, is synonymous to the phrase "lunatic fringe." Pay close attention to this, child: "Fringe" is defined as "the other edges; the outliers." Calling yourself "a majority" is inherently two-dimensional, and borders on one-dimensional idiocy.
In closing, Mikey, I note that the human species survived the extinction of Australopithecus, Neanderthal Man, the Flat Earth Society of Antiquarian Papacy, and the Old Confederacy just fine, thank you---so I think we'll survive the Rotpublican extinction-event just as well.
Y'hear those whistling sounds coming through the branches, Mikey? That's called "the winds of Change"---and tornado season's right around the corner.
Enjoy Hell, Mikey....
Posted by: Steve W. on February 23, 2009 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK
Guys, Myke K is a parody, albeit a spot-on one (same deal with "dead freight mike").
Posted by: Gregory on February 23, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK
"More precisely, the steepest drop in approval of Obama has come from conservative Republicans, whose support descended..."
If Obama would just produce his birth certificate,
I'm confident that 22% would pop right back up to 36%,
Hell maybe 45%
I'm confident.
Posted by: Mr DeBakey on February 23, 2009 at 12:16 PM | PERMALINK
When Obama was elected, the DOW was 9625.28, when inaugurated it opened at 8279.63 closed at 7949.09. As I write this it is 7216. So it's down 2409 since election day, down 1063 since opening Jan 20th, down 733 since closing Jan 20th.
When those next 401(k) account statements go out in April showing the difference of roughly -1500 from a DOW 8772.25 (1-Jan- 2009) on those January statements, the Rick Santelli rant will look mild.
Those January statements had even many Republicans happy to see Bush go, but come April, I expect to see the Obama number go down the toilet.
Posted by: Neo on February 23, 2009 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK
And the big thing to remember is that this is Obama keeping high approval ratings while taking huge risks that Democrats are usually afraid to take. This wasn't a president still riding on good election vibes and coasting on personality. This was a guy who was doing what he said he was going to do, while again taking a full-court press from Republicans, who were giving him absolutely everything they had. And yet STILL Obama remains popular, with even 47% of non-conservative Republicans supporting him.
He came, he saw, he's kicking mucho ass. And he's doing it his way. This is why I supported Obama.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on February 23, 2009 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK
Obama's presidency is NOT a TV show and surveying how people feel about him at this point only reinforces the, perhaps subconscious, idea that he can be cancelled when approval drops below some TBT precentage.
It should go away, but alas will not.
Posted by: Kurt on February 23, 2009 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
Give the guy a chance. He's been in office but a month. It takes time to show that continuing Bush's borrow-and-spend policies are a dead end.
Posted by: Luther on February 23, 2009 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK
So liberal/mod repubs are 53 approve/47 disapprove. Are there even enough of them for this difference to be statistically significant?
Posted by: PaminBB on February 23, 2009 at 5:41 PM | PERMALINK