Given his age and health problems why doesn't he just retire? Does he really think he'll remain fit for duty through 2016? I have no sympathy for people who are victimized by their own egos.

Sounds like a good idea. Given the direction the Republicun Party has been going, Spector's going to be road kill sooner or later anyway.

Probably Specter's real best bet is to just not run again. That gives him two years to vote his conscious, and the rest of his life to relax. He's had a good career in the Senate, and it's probably all he'll get.

Yeah, I'll shed no tears for Specter when he inevitably gets knocked out. But I think he's far more likely to pull a Lieberman than a Jeffords. He'll ride out the primary, lose, then run as an independent while trying to convince Democratic voters that he's the only way to stop Toomey.

I made the same suggestion in my blog some time ago. I guarantee that Democrats would clear the way for Specter as a Dem or Dem-leaning indy. I don't know what Dems can give him other than his seat, but it's a good idea.

Fuck him. The Democrats have enough grandstanding, ineffectual assholes in the Senate as it is. He's long since made his choice, let him live with it.

I wonder if he will ask Michael Steele for advice. I suspect it would be to vote like a Nazi, but talk in a hipper way.

Knowing Arlen, the big loser in this might well be the President's agenda, at least when the Specter vote is essential.

Arlen will go back in line with the right through election day.

Maybe he'll even apologize to Rush, just to be on the safe side.

It has happened before. Several conservative Southern Democrats joined the Republican party a few years ago. I am reminded of the village priest during the English reformation who changed from Catholic to Church of England to Catholic in response to the turmoil. At the end in response to the changing political fortunes he wanted to change back again but was challenged for not having sufficient loyalty to Queen's "faith" to which he responded that he had served his village for nearly 50 years as faithfully as anyone could, and he had never changed his deep belief in God. He was a popular old man. They let him change "religions" a 4th time.

If you were a Catholic priest in Elizabeth I's day, you changed or you had a price on your head.

I expect there are already discussions of this nature going on behind the scenes. The ladies from Maine have 4 and 6 years before re-election, but Specter is up against it now.

Frankly, it seems an obvious choice for Specter. If he stays Republican his chances of re-election are dim. His party is so far out of the mainstream now that his only chance of winning the primary is to move very hard right, yet that would condemn him to a big loss in the main election in a state that went Obama by a wide margin.

OTOH, if he changes parties he can make a deal with the Dem leaders in Pennsy to support him in the 2010 primary ... that won't guarantee a victory, as a dark horse challenger is possible, but it will make a victory far more likely. Then he's likely to coast in the general. I mean, the days of Pennsy electing a Santorum type of Republican are gone -- and that's the only kind of Republican left.

For the Dems the attraction is obvious -- a safe seat in Pennsy AND 60 seats in the Senate now.

According to Steve, about half the country is "far-right".

Strangely, nobody is "far-left".

"Fuck him. The Democrats have enough grandstanding, ineffectual assholes in the Senate as it is. He's long since made his choice, let him live with it." - Jay B.

Actually, the 60th democratic seat in the senate would be the Holy Grail of the progressive movement. The republicans would go ape-shit over that and would do whatever it takes to prevent it from happening.

In fact, I'd like to see more republican senators use this strategy as a shield from right-wing attacks. GUARANTEED to work every time.

Seems to me Republicans have a better shot keeping this seat with Specter running as opposed to dittohead.

Which begs the question: The current Republican Party, at least in public, is saying that they are failing because they've abandoned their core right-wing conservative principles. Never mind the fact that Obama's approval is strong because of his progressive agenda. Sooo what will become of Republicans running for Congress if they run on an uber-right platform, and they get their asses handed to them? How much more right wing can they get without actually becoming Nazis?

Heh. Maybe then they'll realize how much Rush was using them to line his own pockets and start rethinking their priorities. While I'm at it, I'll wish for a million dollars.

He'll ride out the primary, lose, then run as an independent while trying to convince Democratic voters that he's the only way to stop Toomey.

He may try it, but it would only work if the Democratic challenger is a nobody and Toomey is the heavy favorite in a two-way race. Unlike Republicans in Connecticut, PA Dems should have a better choice than the alienated incumbent who lost the opposing party's primary. He would probably peel off a nontrivial portion of the GOP vote, so he could at least finish out his career by playing the spoiler and ensuring the (already likely) Democratic pickup.

"[T]he obvious solution would be to stick to his guns on EFCA and follow up his support for the stimulus by switching parties and, like Jim Jeffords, reposition ideologically somewhat. In other words, stop being a vulnerable moderate Republican and become a plain-vanilla Democrat with a safe seat."

This might work out in the short-run, but in the long-run, we need a progressive Democrat in that seat--not a so-called centrist.

I've got a better idea, how about jettisoning the party system as we know it and let the American people pick candidates instead of "party elites"?

According to Steve, about half the country is "far-right".

Strangely, nobody is "far-left".

Well, if you poll the general populace on the most important issues you'll find that the center agrees with the left on just about everything. There is indeed a far left (go to wsws.org, for example), but they have no sway.

Keep in mind that this is a normal situation in political cycles. A party that is dominant for a long period of time will start by successfully implementing their popular agenda items and then start pursuing their more fringe items. Eventually, the party is focused on things that only their most rabid members care about.

Meanwhile, the party that is out of power for a long time will slowly adapt expectations to be more centrist. Furthermore, as the in-power party goes to far, many of the out-of-power party's agenda items will become simply a return to the former status quo (like -- normal tax rates on the rich, reasonable environmental regs, reasonable protection of civil liberties, etc.).

Which is why the Democrats are now in tune with the center and the Republicans are on the far right.

However having said that much there are fundamentally different characteristics of the far left and the far right. A great illustration of the far left is the "People's Judean Front" bit from Life of Brian -- the far left can split into almost infinite separate groups over the most minor of policy points. The far right has these internal differences too, but they are far better able to gloss over those differences in favor of the common conservative cause.

I can see it now: Pennsylvanians for Specter! A new political party is formed to allow Arlen to run for office without the party baggage. Joe Lieberman becomes the trend-setting pioneer for renegade senators. Strange days.

The Lieberman option won't be open to Specter.

Lieberman won by getting half the independents, the vast majority of Republicans, and enough of the hookwinked low information Democrats to get a win.

Basically, the Republicans made him their candidate.

If Specter loses the primary there is no way Democrats would embrace him. He'd just split the Republican vote and give it to the Democrat.

I can't see Specter switching parties; he's not a Jeffords or a Chaffee and he's been a Republican too long to switch. If I were him, I'd just retire.

Either that, or if I were him, I'd dare the GOP to go after him in a primary: "Okay, go ahead, guys. You know I'm the only Republican in this state who can hold this seat and a Club for Growth crazy like Toomey would get clobbered by any halfway decent Democrat. But fine, you want to give up another Senate seat and help ensure a filibuster-proof Dem majority, go ahead. See how you feel afterwards.

Strangely, nobody is "far-left".

Those, wa, are fighting words....

There are 2 key issues to Specter's personality that won't allow this to happen. He has an enormous ego that will not permit him to ever admit he has been wrong. Switching parties would be admiting to, and addressing a mistake.

For all of his bluster, he is essentially spineless. We saw too many examples of this through the Bush years. He's a lifelong repub. He's not going to stand up against that party.

He's toast. The dittoherd will shred him in a primary. They've been after him for years. And now, there's no counter voice left in the party.

It's not a gimmie, but with a little work and basic competence, this seat should be a Dem pickup.

Arlen could play hardball (doubtful) and threaten to switch parties now if he's not supported in his reelection bid. The dreaded 60 votes might get him some traction. Otherwise, he's in a lose-lose situation. He won't get reelected as a Democrat, and probably not as a Rethug either.

Not unlike Lieberman, Specter has been mostly about himself, and been around for so long he feels entitled to stay. He should go out with a bang as a Democrat (that would be fun to watch) or just quietly leave the stage. Switching parties and then not running again would definitely give him a legacy.

I think the only option for anyone ever dismissing Limbaugh out of hand is to leave the party. Imagine Specter saying:

"I cannot, in good conscience, remain in the GOP after watching it disintegrate into the party of fringe elements led by an entertainer - Rush Limbaugh. I am going to run as a Democrat because I think that they, no WE, have the best ideas for repairing this country."

Personally, I am digging it. :-)

Thats funny, I made that VERY SAME STATEMENT last week right here on these threads. In point of fact I wrote a diary at my blog and kos about it at a time when NOBODY else was considering.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/26/151827/376/516/702233

Hell I even had people telling me here I was crazy for proposing it. But NOW since Matt Y says it then I guess it all makes sense. Do the people at WM even read their comments section? I am beginning to wonder.

MsJoanne I had the exact same thought. In my scenario, Specter deliberately disses Rush, gets the full-on Rush treatment on air, and does *not* go grovelling back, but instead decries extremism and switches parties.

I don't consider it likely but it might be the only option that saves him. Plenty of independents have given him the benefit of the doubt a lot of times, but are fed up. Him switching would give those independents a reason to give him juuuuuuust one more chance.

Good grief! The man's 80 something, isn't he, or will be? Why doesn't he just vote his conscience and get out of the game. If he can win there as a Dem, then can't the Dems get a Dem elected?

If I remember correctly, Arlen Specter entered politics as a Democrat, but left the Democratic Party due to squabbles w/the Democratic Party establishment in Philadelphia.

When he was asked just this question a few weeks ago at my synagogue, his answer was along the lines of 'well, we need a few moderate voices in the GOP.' Given this, and his history, while it may be *possible* that he'd switch parties, I don't think it's terribly likely.

Remember, also, that Specter remains very popular both in his home base of the Philadelphia region + in the rural 'T' of Pennsylvania. Don't count him out, no matter who challenges him from the right.

-Z

Looks like Lieberman will have some company. Specter, if he has enough money to run a real state-wide campaign without party help, could possibly win in a three way race. A lot would depend on who the Dems ran against him. If the Dems send someone up against an Independent Specter who is too liberal for the parts of the state that aren't under the sway of liberal Philadelphia, Specter will win as the consensus candidate.

Joe Lieberman, Arlen Specter, and Bernie Sanders all sitting together in the "I" column? Is there some kind of pattern there?

I agree with the "Independent" idea.

He's won statewide many times, and there's no reason he couldn't do it again if the Dems don't come up with a strong candidate.

I think Independent voters will admire him for bucking the Party of Rush.

he would not be welcome in the pa democratic party-too many years of spinelass adherance to the repub. line after he left the democratic party and way too old and conservative to be attractive now. he should retire.

He is one of the very, very few republicans that I have ever liked and respected. He was on Howard Stern once and I thought he was an outstanding guest...one of Howard's best. He has been on our side in many critical instances, including voting against Clinton's impeachment on both counts. If he switches sides, I would consider sending him a campaign donation. I would really like to see him do it now and give us 60 and hear him blame it on Rush. That would be cool.

I think Arlen would do well as an independent. I thought he wouldn't run again (age, cancer treatments) and emailed him in 2004 that I expected him to vote his conscious precisely b/c he's had such a long run. But,although he's considered a moderate repub, too many times in the last 8 years his vote directly contradicted his rhetoric. I asked him what the wiretaps revealed that the Bush WH was holding over him. I recently thanked him for the stimulus vote and reminded him that there really are many moderate, albeit sometimes ill-informed, silent repubs still out there in PA who will not appreciate any shift further right (too late for me). Rumor has it he's floating the idea of asking sympathetic dems to change parties for one day for the primary (worked for Rendell with repubs).
orange

I lived for a while in a rural area northeast of Pittsburgh. The people up there are real, honest-to-goodness Klansmen/Birchers.

Remember the Johnstown flood? It occurred because a bunch of rich people like Carnegie, the Frick family, and others similar to them had a resort upstream with a thrown together dam that came apart in a rainstorm. Thousands of people died, much of the city was destroyed, and the responsible parties really didn't care.

This same attitude is still dominant in the area. (Murtha wasn't kidding when he talked about the racism in the area.) I got mine and to heck with you. Why should I help you? This is what PA Republicanism is all about and thanks be to all that is holy, enough people in the rest of the state are coming around to the idea that we really are in this together.

I don't know what to tell Mr. Specter, but I am sure that he is thinking about it long and hard.