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Tilting at Windmills

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March 6, 2009
By: Hilzoy

Don't Give Away Carbon Permits

Via Kevin Drum, bad news from Sen. Jeff Bingaman:

"Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a New Mexico Democrat who chairs the energy panel, said earlier that any climate bill that passes the Senate is unlikely to adhere to the administration's plan that the government auction all the permits to emit greenhouse gases because such a plan would be too harsh on big industry.

Instead, Bingaman said any Congressionally developed system capping and trading emissions probably will include carbon allowances given to polluters like cement factories and coal-burning power plants, along with permits that are sold."

This is a very, very bad idea. The problem isn't that the government would get less money if it gave permits away than it would if it auctioned them. A good cap and trade system will involve sending some or all of the money back to people. It's that once you start giving away permits, it's open season for lobbyists and special interests.

If Congress wants to help cement factories and coal-burning power plants, it can send them money directly and face the political consequences. Giving away permits under a cap and trade system does exactly the same thing, but without forcing Congress to admit what they are doing.

Moreover, as Kevin notes both in his post and in his article on the subject (which is very good), giving away permits can actually make prices go up:

"The economic theory involved is a little hairy, but those permits have a value on the open market, and that means that in many cases marginal producers can make more money selling their permits than by producing power. They'll only be willing to produce power if they can raise prices enough to make the power-producing business more profitable than the permit-selling business, and eventually everyone will jack up prices to follow suit.

This may sound abstract -- even a bit fantastical -- but it's absolutely real. In fact, when permits in phase one of Europe's ETS system were handed out for free, electricity prices rose and power companies pocketed a windfall profit (which Britain's Department of Trade and Industry estimated at about $1.1 billion a year in the UK alone). Dale Bryk, an attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), puts it bluntly: "If you ask them point-blank if they'll charge customers for free permits, they won't tell you. But they know they will."

A better way is for the government to hold an auction to set the price of permits. This has a couple of extremely salutary effects. First, it puts everyone on a level playing field (since Congress has no ability to allocate permits to favored interests). Second, and even better, the money from selling the permits goes to the federal government, not to the carbon emitters. That's a pretty useful revenue stream, one that would probably start out at about $20 to $30 billion per year and go up steadily as the cap came down and the price of carbon permits increased."

Giving away permits is just bad policy. It's a handout to corporations hidden within the arcana of cap and trade legislation where members of Congress do not have to fess up to it. It opens the floodgates to everyone else who would like Congress to give them money, which is to say: to everyone in the country. And it raises costs to everyone else.

Jeff Bingaman: just say no.

Hilzoy 8:23 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (13)
 
Comments

Cap and trade is a very bad idea so it's hard to judge whether this would make it any worse. Since it is a huge tax on the middle class, the best thing would be to give them away if they can't be done away with altogether.

Posted by: Mike K on March 6, 2009 at 9:05 PM | PERMALINK

I'm a fan of cap and trade. It has worked very well in the SOx and NOx market, but just giving away credits isboth a bad idea and undermines the strengths of the cap and trade program.

Ideally a Cap and Trade will let the market decide winners. A company that can cut back its CO2 emissions will succeed where one that cannot will suffer a disadvantage. There is incentive to improve processes, efficiencies and technologies.

Giving away credits mucks with this process in several ways. One, it lets the government choose winners, resulting in firms with the most political connections and not the best products/processes gaining an advantage. Two, it deprives the government and the people of revenue that would go to offsetting some of the costs of higher power. Finally, if too many are given out carbon prices crash and there is no incentive for firms to cut back carbon emissions since buying credits may be perceived as being cheaper.

So cap and trade can be a great market based tool to acheive policy ends, but if it is subverted it can further entrench inefficient but politically connected firms while inducing an increase in prices for consumers.

Posted by: MDK on March 6, 2009 at 9:16 PM | PERMALINK

Why is it that, if it's a bad idea, that's what I think we're going to go for.
The lobby's will fight tooth and nail for every penny from a fart of CO2. I've lost over 120 pounds so that my ass ain't worth much. Rush's, on the other hand, is the MOTHER LOAD!!!
Get rid of lobbyist money, and get better elections and better politicians.
CAP AND TRADE LOBBYIST MONEY! Or, better yet, eliminate it.

Posted by: c u n d gulag on March 6, 2009 at 9:21 PM | PERMALINK

... but without forcing Congress to admit what they are doing.

If Congress were willing to admit what they are doing they would tax CO2 emissions or the carbon content of fuel. The entire appeal of the "cap and trade" regimen is that it is impenetrable.

Posted by: marketeer on March 6, 2009 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

Wait, that's my senator! Dad-blast it!

Posted by: Algernon on March 6, 2009 at 9:44 PM | PERMALINK

I like the carbon tax idea. It sends a market signal. We just need to calibrate the tax to provide incentives for green energy without crashing the system.

Posted by: CH on March 6, 2009 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK

If senators don't understand the basics of cap and trade, then maybe it is too complex to implement and we should go for directed reductions instead?

Posted by: bakho on March 6, 2009 at 10:20 PM | PERMALINK

To be fair, there is a disparate impact of carbon tax / cap and trade that will hit harder in the "Coal Belt" states. It would reward regions that have, by dint of geographical location, greater access to carbon free energy sources.

This though is why it's crucial to upgrade our electrical grid to allow energy to flow cheaply and efficiently from where the sun shines to where the people live. And that's why a chunk of the Cap & Trade revenue is designated to improve the grid(?) and invest in carbon free electric generation.

Posted by: MobiusKlein on March 6, 2009 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

One problem is that any Senator who rises to the chairmanship of a committe has, by definition, been around a while. During that time, he/she has had the "opportunity" to be bombarded by lobbyists, and to have said lobbyists contribute mightily to his/her campaign coffers.

As the Senator moves up the food chain, the lobbyists return, year after year, saying "remember last year, when our argument for/against xxxx legislation was . . ." and "remember last year, when we contributed . . . " -- well, BOTH of those [the arguments and the contributions] -- continue to be true THIS year.

The only way to get any new ideas and a fresh point of view is to remove those who've been captives of the lobbyists, and that ain't gonna happen for a l-o-n-g time.

Posted by: Mauimom on March 6, 2009 at 10:50 PM | PERMALINK
Giving away permits is just bad policy. It's a handout to corporations hidden within the arcana of cap and trade legislation where members of Congress do not have to fess up to it. It opens the floodgates to everyone else who would like Congress to give them money, which is to say: to everyone in the country. And it raises costs to everyone else.

Jeff Bingaman: just say no.

Letting Congress dole out freebies is picking and choosing winners & losers and it just begs for lobbyists to bribe reps. It's not only bad policy it is really really stupid.

Bingaman is smarter than that and should be ashamed he overlooked this obvious goof.

Posted by: MarkH on March 6, 2009 at 11:16 PM | PERMALINK

MDK has it exactly right. Kevin's article doesn't explain this point well. Prices will go up as a result of a cap and trade system, auctioning all the permits or giving some or all of the permits away.

The big difference is that if all of the permits are allocated to firms, they'll likely make huge windfall profits, while if the firms have to pay for all of the permits, profits will go down, and the government gets the difference in revenue, which enables it to compensate consumers/lower other distortionary taxes.

In the long run, giving away permits also results in carbon intensive sectors of the economy being (inefficiently) too large, while auctioning all of the permits means that the carbon intensive sectors will be (if you've set the cap correctly) the appropriate size.

Posted by: Joel on March 6, 2009 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

The worst thing is that many of the companies with their hands out for free carbon permits are running plants that are dirtier than the Clean Air Act requires, but are grandfathered in. If these guys get to pollute for free, how will clean-energy providers compete against them?

Now, I'd be willing for the government let established players pay for their permits on the installment plan. Times are tough, they might not have enough money in the bank today.

Posted by: Joe Buck on March 7, 2009 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

I believe that a straightforward carbon tax is much preferable to a cap-and-trade system. But cap-and-trade is better than nothing at all. If a cap-and-trade system is the only thing the current Congress is going to consider, then the permits must be 100 percent auctioned. Otherwise it is a giveaway to polluters and its effectiveness is severely reduced.

We have run out of time to screw around with this. According to mainstream climate scientists, we have at most 5 years in which to stop the growth of CO2 emissions and begin a rapid decline, with large reductions in the early years and essentially phasing out ALL fossil fuel use by mid-century, if we are to have any chance of avoiding the most catastrophic effects of anthropogenic global warming. Many climate scientists believe that we may have already set into motion irreversible, self-reinforcing feedbacks and that global civilization-threatening catastrophe is now unavoidable.

Meanwhile, CO2 emissions are not only increasing every year, they are accelerating.

The Obama administration's stated emissions reduction targets are clearly inadequate -- they are not anywhere near what the world's scientific community knows is necessary to avoid disaster. But we have to start somewhere.

Any reduction regime that Obama and the Congressional Democrats are likely to be able to enact into law now, through whatever combination of carbon taxes, cap-and-trade, regulations, bans on construction of new coal-fired power plants, mandates and incentives for renewable energy, etc. will certainly have to be strengthened and accelerated in the near future.

If, as some experts now predict, the Arctic is ice-free in summer by 2013, such a shocking event (along with other severe effects, like prolonged intense droughts all over the world) may "stimulate" the political will for a crash program to seriously reduce emissions. But by then it will probably be too late.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on March 7, 2009 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK
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