Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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March 20, 2009

DEFICIT TO REACH $1.8 TRILLION.... The news from the Congressional Budget Office is discouraging, but hardly surprising.

The worsening economy is responsible for the even deeper fiscal mess inherited by Obama. As an illustration, CBO says that the deficit for the current budget year, which began Oct. 1, will top $1.8 trillion, $93 billion more than foreseen by the White House.

The 2009 deficit, fueled by the $700 billion Wall Street bailout and diving tax revenues stemming from the worsening recession, is four times the previous $459 billion record set just last year.

The CBO's estimate for 2010 is worse as well, with a deficit of almost $1.4 trillion expected under administration policies, about $200 billion more than predicted by Obama.

By the end of the decade, the deficit under Obama's blueprint would go back up to $1.2 trillion.

Long-term deficit predictions have proven notoriously fickle -- George W. Bush inherited flawed projections of a 10-year, $5.6 trillion surplus and instead produced record deficits -- and if the economy outperforms CBO's expectations, the deficits could prove significantly smaller.

And that last point is of particular interest. The AP report emphasizes deficit projections over the next 10 years, and refers to "dangerously high" budget shortfalls a decade from now. The same piece "throw a major monkey wrench into efforts to enact Obama's budget."

I was on a conference call with OMB Director Peter Orszag this afternoon, and he doesn't see it that way. Orszag emphasized the "uncertainty" in long-term projections, and doesn't believe there's any reason to scale back on the budget blueprint currently before Congress. This is especially true, he said, of the health care reform efforts, which the administration believes can be budget neutral over the long term.

What's more, the Washington Post's Steven Pearlstein responded to the CBO numbers by explaining that the projections confirm that "the recession is worse than they thought when they did these things last time," and thus it is "more urgent ... for us to spend more money to stimulate the economy."

Steve Benen 2:20 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (15)
 
Comments

To reduce any deficit Congress could raise the marginal tax rate in the highest bracket to the Reagan era 50%.

Posted by: Tigershark on March 20, 2009 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK

Steven Pearlstein: it is "more urgent ... for us to spend more money to stimulate the economy."

For better or worse, it's a safe bet the new Blue Dog senators will comclude the exact opposite.

Posted by: Danp on March 20, 2009 at 2:28 PM | PERMALINK

"George W. Bush inherited flawed projections of a 10-year, $5.6 trillion surplus"

What fucking bullshit! The projections weren't flawed. BushCo came in and gave it all away to the top 1%.

Thanks, dipshit media.

Posted by: Obama -- Not as Tough as the Steelers on March 20, 2009 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK

What would the projection be with all of the formerly off-budget items still off-budget?

Posted by: MikeJ on March 20, 2009 at 2:40 PM | PERMALINK

Good point, MikeJ. The only reason the deficit numbers weren't higher before is because Bush kept the entire cost of the Iraq war out of the actual budget process to hide the true cost of it.

Once those numbers were put back in, there was no way things wouldn't look a lot more grim. No surprises there, although the wingnuts will froth themselves into a frenzy over it.

Posted by: Curmudgeon on March 20, 2009 at 2:58 PM | PERMALINK

The continual portrayal of W as an unwitting victim of "flawed projections" and "inherited recessions" is really driving my nucking futz...

- PonB

Posted by: phaedrusonbass on March 20, 2009 at 3:04 PM | PERMALINK

...so much so that I can't even spell "me" properly ;-)

- PonB

Posted by: phaedrusonbass on March 20, 2009 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINK

Others already beat me to it, but isn't this high deficit number largely due to Obama's honest accounting of the Iraq War costs?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict the MSM only mentions this on page D12, if at all.

Posted by: Allan Snyder on March 20, 2009 at 3:11 PM | PERMALINK

Bush (along with 90% of media schmucks) was also the victim of flawed intelligence in the Iraq fiasco. It's unfair to blame them.

What, was the media expected to actually read the Hans Blix report, when reporting that Saddam wasn't complying, and was a threat?

Posted by: flubber on March 20, 2009 at 3:44 PM | PERMALINK

Mystery Woman: You miserable slug! You think you can talk your way out of this? You betrayed me.
Jake: No I didn't. Honest... I ran out of gas. I, I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts. IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD.

(Carrie Fisher and John Belushi in The Blues Brothers)

Posted by: phaedrusonbass on March 20, 2009 at 3:49 PM | PERMALINK

Good work, kids.

How much did Bush increase the deficit in his first 60 days? Only two months in office and Obama's got the deficit spiraling out of control.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

Posted by: Myke K. on March 20, 2009 at 4:12 PM | PERMALINK

You know, the US GDP is so massive, speaking in terms of 'trillions of dollars' doesn't mean much to me. Spending as a percentage campared to that of WWII GDP would mean something. Unless we're far passed the scale as that era, deficit to GDP, I don't care. Using WWII as a reference would reassure me by providing an example that I can relate to in which we survived that spending increase fine.

Then again, the G.O.P.ers could come up with another stupid analogy, like stacking dollars 'til they reached Mars (or something).

Posted by: JWK on March 20, 2009 at 4:16 PM | PERMALINK

Myke -

1) Your comment would actually make sense if the situation facing Bush was even remotely similar to the situation Obama faces.

2) Bush's first major ecomonic act was the tax cut of 2001: cost, $1.6 TRILLION (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001)

3) Back to your hole, please...

Posted by: phaedrusonbass on March 20, 2009 at 4:21 PM | PERMALINK

The hypocrisy, on Blitzer just now, John McCain says that Obama is committing generational theft, where has he been? The theft has been going on for the last 8 years or so, the high priced crooks have stolen from all of us, I for one would like my 401K back. Obama has to spend a lot to repair the damage.
Blitzer also said 82% of Americans are happy with their health insurance, have I missed something?

Posted by: JS on March 20, 2009 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK

Blitzer also said 82% of Americans are happy with their health insurance, have I missed something?

It's all in how you word the question. This one went like this: "Would you make changes to your health insurance if it meant that Fidel Castro would personally choose your doctor and make you wait seven years for CPR as he laughed like a hyena at your plight and gave the undeserving poor people down the street instant access to physicians solely to spite your hard-working ass? Or would you rather keep your current coverage?"

Posted by: shortstop on March 20, 2009 at 5:02 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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