So what is the over/under line for the number of lawsuits Republicans bring either to overturn an election (of a Democrat) or prevent a recount in the 2010 off-year election?

The story is that a race between an unknown moderate Democrat and well-known moderate Republican in a conservative-leaning district was a dead heat. I'm waiting to see how the wingers spin this as good news for Guiliani or whatever-- but in any actual reality it's bad news for Republicans.

But if Murphy had lost by a significant margin -- say 56 to 44 percent -- it would have shown that within a district that Obama carried in 2008, there was a significant undercurrent of discontent with his presidency and his policies.

Poppycock. The NY-20 had a choice between (1) Obama and (2) the Rampstrike and Bullwinkle Comedy Hour. That's an historical fact that even the RushGod can't spin away....

"Republicans went to court before the polls even closed"

Ahhh, democracy. I'm sure glad we have a party that's so committed to "country first".

MattF

you forgot to mention Republicans outspent Dems nearly 2 to 1 ( $2,056,907 to $1,226,074 ) in that race between an "unknown moderate Democrat and well-known moderate Republican in a conservative-leaning district".

And "conservative-leaning" = +14 in this case, I believe.

According to the links in the final paragraph, Tedisco's campaign filed an ex-parte motion while the polls were still open.

Among other things it read, "2. Ordering the respondend New York Board of Elections and the Commissioners thereof, to certify the name of James Tedisco as elected to the public office of Member of the U.S. House of Representatives, 20th Congressional District, in Dutchess, New York, at the special election held therefor on the 31st Day of March, 2009, or alternatively enjoining the improper issuance of a certificate of election for the said public office."

Given this, can we finally do away, once and for all, with the stupid and dishonest meme that Republicans want to win at the ballot box and Democrats are the sore losers that always go to court? This wasn't true in Bush/Gore 2000, it wasn't true in the WA State 2004 Governor's race, it wasn't true in this year's MN Senate race and now it isn't true in the NY-20 Congressional race.

I view it as a positive sign on the larger scale, but not as any kind of referendum on Obama or the GOP in general. Rather, I think it's positive because the party in power often loses elections after they win the presidency (the Virginia governorship pattern, congressional midterms) in part because it's harder to motivate your supporters after you've won big. While I acknowledge that local issues and candidate personalities dominate, the fact that Democrats were able to get a strong grassroots effort going for a special election at a time when they control the presidency and both houses of Congress is definitely a good indicator.

The outcome of this is not really crucial, because I think the groundwork has been well-laid for Murphy to cream Tedisco in a rematch in 2010, even if Jimmy Disco squeaks by this time.

"Republicans went to court before the polls even closed"

You need to edit that statement. Should read:

"Republicans filed a frivolous lawsuit with the court before the polls even closed"

Call it for what it is.

Given this, can we finally do away, once and for all, with the stupid and dishonest meme that Republicans want to win at the ballot box and Democrats are the sore losers that always go to court?

Unfortunately, Harry Frankfurt's work would probably tell us that we can't. If anyone ever figures out an effective way to counter BS, the modern conservative movement will go down in flames (er, more than it is already.)

So, to judge by the Franken-Coleman race's timescale, Murphy should be seated just in time to get his name on the ballot for reelection.

Intrade has Tedisco at 43 (and conversely Murphy at 57), which I think should be a strong "buy" at this point. Tedisco needs to win the absentee votes by about 1.1% to take the lead in the initial count, which doesn't seem unlikely in a district where he was leading in the polls up until the last week or so. That's not say that I want him to win -- I don't -- but I think there's a better than 43% chance that he will.

Whatever the outcome, this all could have been avoided had the Governor made a better choice. He could have put a solid liberal in the Senate, but instead he went with right-wing gun enthusiast whose exit from the House may cost the Democrats a seat. Not smart. I hope NY Democrats unceremoniously dump his incompetent ass ASAP.