April 2, 2009
THURSDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP....Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers.
* Believe it or not, the first televised campaign ad of the 2010 election cycle began airing today in Pennsylvania. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) launched a spot criticizing Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, who's likely to challenge Specter in a Republican primary, but who has not yet launched a campaign.
* A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut shows the bottom effectively falling out for Sen. Chris Dodd (D) -- he now trails former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) in a hypothetical general election match-up, 50% to 34%. Making matters worse, Dodd also trailed Simmons' virtually unknown GOP primary opponents -- state Sen. Sam Caliguri and former Ambassador Tom Foley -- in head to head match-ups. Expect Dodd to face a new round of pressure to retire.
* Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is in a tough spot. If he refuses to sign the election certificate that would send Al Franken to the Senate, his constituents will accuse him of dragging this process out for partisan reasons. If he does sign the certificate, the Republican establishment will be mad at him, and it might undercut his 2012 presidential campaign.
* Reiterating what he'd indicated earlier, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) said he will not seek re-election next year. His recent absurdities, then, are sincere.
* Rep. Kendrick Meek's (D) Senate campaign in Florida is off to a good start, at least as far as fundraising is concerned. Meek no doubt benefited from Bill Clinton's support -- the former president has hosted two events for the Florida Democrat this year.
* Newt Gingrich told a group of college students in Missouri yesterday, "If the Republicans can't break out of being the right wing party of big government, then I think you would see a third party movement in 2012."
—Steve Benen 12:00 PM
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Man, how great would it be to see Newt try to launch a third party campaign in '12? He would be giving Obama a free second term.
Posted by: Rabi on April 2, 2009 at 11:59 AM | PERMALINK
Newtie has been on his third party hobby-horse for a while. It is perennial with him: he brings it up every time he thinks the Republicans are not listening. It is all bullshit, of course.
Posted by: Andrew on April 2, 2009 at 12:01 PM | PERMALINK
Reiterating what he'd indicated earlier, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) said he will not seek re-election next year. His recent absurdities, then, are sincere.
Steve. Really. Do I have to point out that your conclusion doesn't remotely follow?
Gregg deserves the benefit of that doubt only if he also is swearing off any K Street, PAC, foundation, or consultancy jobs, and basically if he plans to live the rest of his life in a monastery under a vow of poverty and silence.
Posted by: The Fabulous Mr. Toad on April 2, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK
Prediction: Pawlenty offers to not certify the election long enough for the SCOTUS justice with jurisdiction to say whether the court is taking the case. But he appeals for the court to decide quickly.
SCOTUS punts. And Pawlenty more-or-less makes both sides happy. The GOP is happy that he held it awhile. The Dems are happy he forced SCOTUS to decide quickly.
Posted by: Carl Nyberg on April 2, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK
Is Gregg positioning himself for a White House run?
Because this, quite honestly, looks very much like it:
Bipartisan cred because Obama wanted him in the Cabinet.
Conservative cred because he turned it down by claiming he couldn't stomach the socialism.
I'm interested in seeing how that plays out.
Of course, I could be completely off the mark.
Posted by: thrashbluegrass on April 2, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK
"Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is in a tough spot. If he refuses to sign the election certificate that would send Al Franken to the Senate, his constituents will accuse him of dragging this process out for partisan reasons. If he does sign the certificate, the Republican establishment will be mad at him, and it might undercut his 2012 presidential campaign."
For a Republican, this is a no brainer. He won't sign.
Posted by: CJ on April 2, 2009 at 12:16 PM | PERMALINK
I knew Dodd was in trouble but I really didn't think he would implode this bad. Wow.
Posted by: Curmudgeon on April 2, 2009 at 12:16 PM | PERMALINK
Oh Newt, please do try to split off into a third party. It will be like Ralph Nader in 2000, only this time in favor of the Democrats. I would donate to that party myself to help make it a reality.
Posted by: Freddie on April 2, 2009 at 12:19 PM | PERMALINK
Expect Dodd to face a new round of pressure to retire.
Or some Democrat could, you know, run against him. To see who the people of the state prefer more.
How quaint!
Posted by: Tree on April 2, 2009 at 12:27 PM | PERMALINK
Pawlenty should follow Mark Twain's advice and simply do the right thing. "It will gratify some, and astonish the rest."
I think that a major realignment of political parties may occur in our foreseeable future. Newt may be just the guy to put the moribund Republican Party out of its misery.
Posted by: Okie on April 2, 2009 at 12:27 PM | PERMALINK
Specter, I hate to say it, is being pretty smart. If he can create the perception that Toomey is too extreme before Toomey's campaign even gets going, he'll have a shot at holding his seat.
Posted by: mfw13 on April 2, 2009 at 12:44 PM | PERMALINK
Newt Gingrich told a group of college students in Missouri yesterday, "If the Republicans can't break out of being the right wing party of big government, then I think you would see a third party movement in 2012."
And because Newt's been proven right so often over the last 15 years, they believed him.
Posted by: Winkandanod on April 2, 2009 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK
President Pawlenty?
He could save himself a lot of disillusionment by doing something else.
Posted by: SteinL on April 2, 2009 at 12:47 PM | PERMALINK
If Pawlenty wants to prove his 'street creds' for the republican party, he should not sign anything that would allow Franken to become senator. Additionally, to further his bonafides with us, he should tell Obama to stuff his stimulus money up his *ss!
If Timmie wants to run for president in 2012, why should he give a f*ck what the idiots of Minnesota think! All of our serious 2012 presidential candidates are telling their constituents to go to hell & Tim should too!
Posted by: RepublicanPointOfView on April 2, 2009 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK
"right wing party of big government" Let me check my poli sci 101 text book to see what you call a "right wing party of big government." Maybe Professor Beck can tell us.
Posted by: Th on April 2, 2009 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
Newt has long been the driving intellectual force behind our republican party. He has continued to show his brilliance in providing leadership.
However, if Newt thinks that he is positioning for a 2012 presidential run, he is deluding himself! With Newt converting to Catholicism, he can never get the nomination from our god fearing republicans.
As every good god fearing republican understands, we will never nominate an anti-christian Morman nor a Papist worshipping Catholic.
Posted by: GodlyPointOfView on April 2, 2009 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK
Newt says: "If the Republicans can't break out of being the right wing party of big government, then I think you would see a third party movement in 2012."
But we already have three major parties:
1. The In-Power Republicans (right-wing, big-government);
2. The Out-of-Power Republicans (right-wing, small government);
3. The Democrats (for a description, see Rogers, Will).
Posted by: tamiasmin on April 2, 2009 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK
"Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is in a tough spot."
As CJ stated, this is not a tough spot. He does what the wingnuts want and doesn't sign. You're assuming a high-profile Republican might approach this question as a grown-up would and weigh the issues, the law, etc. It won't happen.
Posted by: DanG on April 2, 2009 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK
All of our serious 2012 presidential candidates are telling their constituents to go to hell & Tim should too!
Belly laugh.
Posted by: shortstop on April 2, 2009 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK