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Tilting at Windmills

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April 4, 2009
By: Hilzoy

Estate Tax Idiocy

As Steve noted earlier, the Senate voted Thursday to eliminate the estate tax for estates worth less than $5 million, or $10 million for couples (estates worth less than $3.5 million, or $7 million for couples, are excluded now), and to lower the tax on estates over that amount from 45% to 35%. (Note: you only pay taxes on the value of the estate after you subtract the excluded amount. Thus, if you now leave an estate worth $3,500,001, the estate will have to pay all of 45 cents in taxes.) Luckily, it seems unlikely that this will make it into the final budget. But it's worth stopping to note just what a stupid idea this is. From the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities:

"The proposal would benefit only a tiny number of estates but carry a large cost. Only the estates of 2.8 of every 1,000 people who die would benefit from the Lincoln-Kyl proposal; Tax Policy Center data show that those are the only estates that would owe any estate tax in 2011 if the 2009 estate rules are extended. Yet the proposal would cost $91 billion more in the first ten years that its effects would be fully felt (2012-2021) than would making the 2009 rules permanent, based on Joint Tax Committee estimates. Relative to current law, under which the tax will revert to pre-2001 parameters in 2011, the total cost of the Lincoln-Kyl proposal would be $442 billion over this 2012-2021 period.

These new cost estimates are lower than last year's estimates for a similar proposal, probably because of the sharp drop in the stock market, real estate values, and other asset values. But over time, as asset prices recover, the long-term cost projections of the proposal would also increase -- and by quite substantial amounts."

Like a lot of conservatives, I am very worried about the deficits. Unlike some of them, I was also worried about it several years ago. Also unlike them, I am at present more worried about getting out of the recession, and I am willing to run deficits in the short run to accomplish that. But because I am worried about the deficit, I want these deficits to be well targeted and stimulative.

That means that I am much, much happier about spending money on investments that will pay dividends into the future, or on like deferred maintenance that we will need to do eventually, than on things we don't need, like the war in Iraq. It also means that I think that any tax cuts we pass now ought to go to people who will actually spend all the money they get, rather than to people who will not: i.e., the rich.

Spending money on things we need tends to be a better stimulus than tax cuts. Tax cuts for the poor and middle class tend to be better stimuli than tax cuts for the rich. But if, for some unfathomable reason, we want to give tax cuts to the rich right now, why on earth do it by cutting the estate tax?

There's a reasonable argument for cutting taxes on capital gains and income: namely, that they increase incentives to work and invest. I think this argument is outweighed by other considerations, but it does exist. But what, exactly, is the argument for cutting the estate tax? People who inherit money have not earned it. They are not doing something that we want to reward, like working; they just happened to be the heirs of rich people.

Moreover, they have already gotten a lot of advantages as a result of their good fortune. A lot of them have gotten very good educations, and have emerged from college without the masses of debt that other people have to deal with. Many of them know other wealthy people who can help them out with jobs and other business opportunities. The deck is already stacked overwhelmingly in their favor, not because of their efforts but because of sheer blind luck. (And lest anyone think that this is resentment or envy talking, I should say that while I don't know enough of the relevant details to say, it is not inconceivable that I might end up paying estate tax. When I talk about privilege, I know whereof I speak.)

Obviously, I hate taxes as much as the next person. I wish that tiny little elves brought us the money we need to pay for bridges and courts and national defense and so on, or that money really did grow on trees, so that no one ever had to pay taxes at all. Regrettably, however, we do have to pay for our government, and that means taxes. Cutting the estate tax means either raising taxes on other people or adding to the national debt, thereby raising taxes on our children. (Don't bring up cutting spending: as long as we run deficits, cutting spending only reduces the amount we owe. It does not eliminate the fact that cutting the estate tax will increase the debt our children have to pay.) Why on earth either of these options would be preferable is a mystery that passeth all understanding.

***

I really do have to give a special shout-out, in this context, to those Senators who go on and on about fiscal responsibility and yet found it in their heart to vote for this amendment. Evan Bayh, for instance, claims to be "one of the leading voices on Capitol Hill demanding fiscal responsibility and reigning in wasteful government spending." Blanche Lincoln, who sponsored the bill, and who, with Bayh, just founded the Moderate Senate Democrats Working Group, which is allegedly "focused on fiscal responsibility". Lincoln also made one of the world's dumbest arguments for fiscal responsibility just a few days ago:

"In good and bad economic times, most Arkansas families know they must live within their means. They try to balance their checkbook every week, pay their bills on time, and, hopefully, are able to put a little away for retirement and their children’s college fund. From time to time, though, even those who plan ahead and make prudent saving decisions may face a household emergency that requires them to seek a loan or use a credit line to help them through a rough period. When that happens, they know they must tighten their belt and make sacrifices to make those payments and eliminate their debt. If the working families of Arkansas must do this, why shouldn't their government do the same?"

I've given up on expecting sanity from Senate Republicans, all of whom voted for this. But I had hoped for better from the ten Democrats who voted for this.

Hilzoy 6:59 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (25)
 
Comments

Personally, I don't think there's an argument to be made at all that tax cuts, in and of themselves, are stimulative. No sane person would turn down a chance to make a sizable capital gain, and will not wait until rates are lower. Making a ton of money is all the incentive most people need. They don't need tax cuts on top of that.

Also, there is the issue of fairness. As in, why should investment and pushing paper be taxed at a lower rate than labor? I don't think that's justified. At all. In fact, it's part of the dangerous swing toward hollowing out our economy and increasing the size of the Financial Sector. To me, the government should be in the business of promoting manufacturing. Real things. Actual things. Especially green manufacturing. That's a WIN/WIN. Creates jobs here, and helps the environment. Pushing paper around, by definition, knows no boundaries. It needs no ties to any nation. It doesn't rely on a successful economy to work. Brokers, for instance, make money regardless. That's a whole different animal than manufacturing something.

Also: there is a benefit to our economy if we reduce the gap between rich and poor. Several benefits. The macro benefit being the more consumers in the pool with disposable income, the better. If just a few people hoard the bulk of the wealth, the entire economy suffers.

Taxes are too low on the wealthy right now. They have too many ways of escaping their fair share. Most of us don't. Those of us with a regular job have little control over the amount taken out of our paychecks. When Capital Gains and estate taxes are cut, this just furthers the gap between rich and poor, labor and investment, etc.

It's bad for the country and bad economically.

Posted by: Cuchulain on April 4, 2009 at 7:20 PM | PERMALINK

Also:


The Media aren't doing their job at all when it comes to talk about the deficit. As you mention, it's absurd for so-called deficit hawks to also push for tax cuts. The two things are in direct opposition. Someone is not serious about cutting the deficit if they also want to cut taxes. Cutting taxes CREATES deficits.

The Media and politicians with guts should constantly spell that out. It's all too obvious.

You aren't serious about cutting the deficit if you also want to cut taxes.

Posted by: Cuchulain on April 4, 2009 at 7:24 PM | PERMALINK

Blanche Lincoln (D-WalMart) needs to worry more about her impoverished Arkansas constituents and less about the Walton family.

Posted by: Tax Lover on April 4, 2009 at 7:26 PM | PERMALINK

This argument that says government should cut spending because that's what families do is nonsense. Blanche's family isn't responsible for the whole neighborhood. The government is, at least to the extent that it can be.

Furthermore, if the government cuts spending in response to the economic downturn, it may, however modestly, save the government some money in the short term. But as the economy continues to fail because nobody's spending anything, the government's revenues will fall even further. Which will require more spending cuts. Eventually, we just won't have a government. The only people who will be able to get the services government used to provide will be the very rich.

Welcome back to feudal-land. And by the way, once we get there, the new barons won't need servants like Bayh, Lincoln, and the congressional Replicants anymore. Won't need Rash Lardbaughl anymore, either, but they may keep him on as a jester. At severely reduced pay.

Hope Blanche likes scrabbling in the ditch with the rest of us.

Posted by: Cap'n Chucky on April 4, 2009 at 7:51 PM | PERMALINK


H
Very well said as usual! But I think, odd as it seems, that the alleged injury done by the estate tax is not supposed to be to the heirs--who, if they are lucky enough to be in line for estates worth millions of dollars, do exceedingly well even under the present system--but to the dead person who wills his or her fortune to them. (Hence the expression 'death tax'--the bastards won't even let you alone when you're dead.) This isn't completely absurd. As you will of course know, there is a line of thought going back at least to Aristotle according to which, e.g., a man's reputation can suffer after his death in a way that is a wrong to him, and we do think violating a person's will is an injustice to the person whose will it is. But that said, failing to privilege the dying person's wish to make his or her offspring filthy rich hardly seems like it belongs in the same class.

Another thought. Putting aside fantasies about elves, I think in the real world, i.e., the world as it inescapably is, one shouldn't mind, let alone, hate paying taxes. It's one of the most important ways in which we do our bit. I think there must be a kind of libertarian illusion that makes people hate tax, a tendency to see taxes as an accidental feature of human life, an unfortunate contingency, rather than the inescapable price of civilization. When imagining the way things could be, why imagine away taxes rather than daydreaming about having a larger income, say, out of which, it goes without saying, I would be paying taxes as one always does?

Posted by: J on April 4, 2009 at 7:53 PM | PERMALINK

"There's a reasonable argument for cutting taxes on capital gains and income"

I've yet to see it.

* Under the current capital gains rate, 98.3% of the benefits go to the top 20% of taxpayers. The other 80% of taxpayers see only 1.7% of the benefits.

* When there was a cut in the capital gains tax in '97, the SBA reported that the creation of small businesses remained virtually unchanged from well before the cut to well after it.

There's no rational reason why the capital gains rate should be lower that the rate on earned income.

Posted by: Joe Friday on April 4, 2009 at 8:37 PM | PERMALINK

Only the estates of 2.8 of every 1,000 people who die would benefit from the Lincoln-Kyl proposal

Or, to put it in more useful terms, only the heirs of 0.28% of people who die would benefit.

Posted by: PeakVT on April 4, 2009 at 8:42 PM | PERMALINK

If the Waltons want to pass on passels of money to their offspring, I suggest they go out and hire a tax accountant and a trust lawyer, like decent rich people do, instead of getting their pet Senator to pass stupid laws for them. Seriously, if they can't figure out how to structure their finances to avoid the tax as it is, then ..., well frankly, they don't deserve the money. It's not like the current rates and exclusions are draconian.

And if the "working families of Arkansas must" "tighten their belts and make sacrifices" shouldn't the Waltons also?

Posted by: biggerbox on April 4, 2009 at 8:50 PM | PERMALINK

Or, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln will make sure the Walton kids thank her when daddy croaks and bequeaths the Walmart empire to them...

But 99.72% of Americans will still mourn their dead as normal human beings, without focusing on 'benefits' in their moment of grief.

Posted by: Ohioan on April 4, 2009 at 8:57 PM | PERMALINK

Lincoln screwed up her own analogy!

"From time to time, though, even those who plan ahead and make prudent saving decisions may face a household emergency that requires them to seek a loan or use a credit line to help them through a rough period."

This would be like the government borrowing to stimulate demand during a recession. The repayment begins later, when the family has weathered its emergency, just as the government should reduce the deficit during good times. To extend the analogy, during the good times when the family had money, the drunkard father (Bush) blew the cash meant to repay the loan on a sports car instead.

I'm just astounded that sitting US senators don't understand that government spending should be countercyclical.

Posted by: bbbar on April 4, 2009 at 9:34 PM | PERMALINK

Get this,

Japan has 160Mps broadband at $60 a month.

It cost the cable company $20 per household to upgrade their equipment.

Read it here,

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/the-cost-to-offer-the-worlds-fastest-broadband-20-per-home/

Posted by: alan on April 4, 2009 at 9:46 PM | PERMALINK

What do you want to bet that a lot of that tiny fraction of uber-wealthy people who would benefit from this bill are the very ones that contribute vast amounts to finance the Republican machine that is so bent on destroying this country?

I'll bet Bayh and Lincoln know who I'm talking about. Bastards.

Posted by: Curmudgeon on April 4, 2009 at 9:47 PM | PERMALINK

biggerbox is spot on with this one. The whole estate tax brouhaha has been cooked up almost exclusively by the Walton family. They've spent an estimated $200 million trying to get the estate tax dropped because they will make $70-80 billion. It's been a good investment on their part.

But Warren Buffet is right when he's spoken out against removing th estate tax. We are a meritocracy at present and moving toward plutocracy. We want to remain a society that rewards talents and achievements, not inherited wealth and power. Clinton or Obama is a President by merit, Bush is the President by wealth or family connections. How many more Bushes do you want making important decisions for our country?

Posted by: Glen on April 4, 2009 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK
Won't need Rash Lardbaughl anymore, either, but they may keep him on as a jester. At severely reduced pay.
Severely reduced pay for everyone! (Hermes Conrad, Futurama) Posted by: Bernard HP Gilroy on April 4, 2009 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

What's the deadweight loss from the estate tax? I seem to remember from the first go-around (when I was a Bush supporter and therefore more inclined to support it) that it was vanishingly small.

Anyone know the numbers?

Posted by: slaney black on April 5, 2009 at 1:23 AM | PERMALINK

The Media aren't doing their job at all when it comes to talk about the deficit. As you mention, it's absurd for so-called deficit hawks to also push for tax cuts. The two things are in direct opposition. Someone is not serious about cutting the deficit if they also want to cut taxes. Cutting taxes CREATES deficits.

The Media and politicians with guts should constantly spell that out. It's all too obvious.

Here's where I go all "lemme 'splain something to you Lucy".

The media and Republicans and Blue Dogs don't give a rat's ass about deficits. No, what they care about is inflation.

That's because they're all rich, or represent the interests of rich people. And rich people are bond investors. Bond investors hate inflation like the Devil...whereas deflation, which is the most miserable thing imaginable for 99.999% of people, is wonderful for bond investors.

Remember that chart from the stimulus debate, showing how food stamps are the best form of stimulus and capital gains tax cuts are the worst?

Social spending has a strong multiplier effect. It's more potentially inflationary. Tax cuts have very little multiplier effect. They boost your after-tax earnings and still let the economy sink into a deflationary spiral.

Therefore, all deficits are not created equal. For bond investors, tax-cut-driven deficits are not so bad. Spending-driven deficits are very bad.

Posted by: slaney black on April 5, 2009 at 1:30 AM | PERMALINK

Ah, but there is no limit to the influence and power of the members of the Lucky Sperm Club!

Posted by: dcsusie on April 5, 2009 at 1:33 AM | PERMALINK

Cuchulain hit the nail on the hit.

The estate tax was imposed in the first place because there was a recognition that over-concentration of wealth into fewer and fewer hands is ultimately detrimental to the economy. The estate tax is one means the government has to put the brakes on over-concentration of wealth; progressive income taxes and capital gains taxes are the others. All of those have been slashed to the bone and guess what? The utterly predictable thing happened - too few people now control too much of the money, the rest of us have had to borrow from them just to stay afloat the past 10 years, and a lot of people can't pay it back - leading to the credit crisis.

The "death tax" tripe has always irritated me no end. Dead people don't write checks - they're dead, and they could care fuck-all about anything at that point. They use this terminology to boost their ridiculous argument that it's somehow "unfair" that the money "gets taxed twice". Uh, no, it doesn't - it's treated like every other dollar in the economy - it's taxed when it changes hands. Such as when rich dude dies and the money goes to his heirs. At base, the argument is that Paris Hilton shouldn't have to pay any taxes, even though she's very wealthy without ever having worked, but you and I should pay full freight on every dollar we earn doing actual useful work. Paris' daddy or granddaddy isn't being "taxed twice" because it's not his money anymore. Paris isn't taxed twice because the money belonged to someone else when it was taxed before. Just like I pay income taxes on my earnings, then spend some of my money at the grocery store, where I pay sales taxes, then when the cashier at the store gets a paycheck in part underwritten by money I spent at the store, she pays taxes on her income as well.

In short, the Republican argument (and make no mistake, Miz Blank IS a Republican in all but name) is one that only makes sense to stupid people who have no idea how the estate tax works. Since stupid people are the natural constituency of the Republican Party, expect this moronic argument about the "unfairness" of "death taxes" to continue ad infinitum.

Posted by: Jennifer on April 5, 2009 at 9:50 AM | PERMALINK

The whole business is Senator Lincoln carrying water for the Waltons. They control between the five ofthem some $140 billion from their able-to-take-a-nuclear-strike compound. These wonderful people promote the policy that their employees should not talk to each other during work hours on the grounds they are "stealing" company time by so doing. When the Wal-Mart associates had a national campaign to raise money within the company to take care of associates who fell on hard times, the entire Walton family gave the princely sum of $6,000.00.

A better argument for the confiscation of generational wealth cannot be found than these far-right scum.

Posted by: TCinLA on April 5, 2009 at 10:47 AM | PERMALINK

INHERITANCE TAX not "estate tax".

Learn to use the correct lingo.

If everyone called it the INHERITANCE TAX, or more correctly, the "TAX ON VERY LARGE INHERITANCES" then public opinion would overwhelmingly support it.

Which is why the Heritage Foundation introduced the term "estate tax" in the late 1970s. Unfortunately American media adopted the term.

INHERITANCE TAX. You see that term on your Monopoly Community Chest cards -- that's because until the 1970s THAT'S WHAT IT WAS CALLED.

When will liberals wake up and realize how to play this game?

Posted by: Cool on April 5, 2009 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK

slaney,

"What's the deadweight loss from the estate tax? I seem to remember from the first go-around (when I was a Bush supporter and therefore more inclined to support it) that it was vanishingly small. Anyone know the numbers?"

In 2000, before Chimpy and the Republicans started rolling it back, it brought in what would be about $25 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Posted by: Joe Friday on April 5, 2009 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK

"Which is why the Heritage Foundation introduced the term 'estate tax' in the late 1970s. Unfortunately American media adopted the term."

The IRS references it as the ESTATE TAX:

U.S. Estate Tax

Posted by: Joe Friday on April 5, 2009 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK

Leave no trust fund millionaire behind! The Senator from Walmart is sooooo transparent. Guillotines all around!

Posted by: numi on April 5, 2009 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

I don't buy the argument that reduced taxes on capital gains & income are part of a legitimate incentive for work & investment.

Neither more effective work nor investment should be motivated by "a scheme to reduce taxes". But, if they are, then why isn't a reduced estate tax merely another part of the same scheme?

Posted by: sidewinder on April 5, 2009 at 4:07 PM | PERMALINK

Well, cool, that's interesting, but there is a legal jargonistic difference between an inheritance tax (as New York has) which taxes each person who inherits on how much he/she inherits, and an estate tax, that taxes the deceased's entire "estate" before distribution.

Still the point is correct that the dead don't pay tax.

And what pisses me off about all this "tax twice" bs is that MOST of large estates is untaxed capital gain. Capital gain is wiped out by the estate tax code (new basis is date of death value), so the only solution to reducing the estate tax is retaining the deceased's basis. Do these idiots in Congress have any idea what a nightmare that turned out to be when it was tried before? They hurriedly went back to date of death value, I can tell you that.

As for Tester, I wonder if he's concerned about the increase in raw land value due to Hollywood celebrities buying ranches as vacation homes? The current estate tax code takes working assets into account and allows them to escape taxation as long as the family business operates for 10 years after death. That should be enough.

Posted by: Cal Gal on April 5, 2009 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK
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