This is exactly the course that the Illinois GOP has followed for the last 5 or 6 years. I hope the national party gets the same results that the GOP in my state has seen.

People are too complacent about this. If the Dems screw up, or the economy keeps going downhill despite their best (or anyway kinda sorta OK) efforts, these fascist nutters WILL regain power. And that's a very dangerous situation for the country.

Yeah, but if the GOP is advancing full-speed to the rear, why isn't America making real progress forward? Put another way, isn't Democratic timidity just as much a threat to progress as Republican neanderthalicity?

One of those states they'll be coming through will be Iowa, which this morning is seeing the first marriage licenses issued as part of the recent Supreme Court ruling. Just reading comments and letters to the editor since the ruling (I live in Cedar Rapids), there is support for it but also a lot of opposition, led by some very vocal conservative groups.

The first step in the gauntlet will be all about social issues. One that most GOPs (and a lot of elected Dems looking at polls) find easy to oppose, but the reality of the situation will certainly have a bigger effect in '10 and '12.

Conservative... by definition

The result is obvious: a Republican Party that stays exactly as it is now. Same coalitions, same priorities, same ideology, same agenda.

Yeah, but if the GOP is advancing full-speed to the rear, why isn't America making real progress forward? Put another way, isn't Democratic timidity just as much a threat to progress as Republican neanderthalicity?

Hmmm . . . what makes you think we aren't making progress? We're getting out of Iraq, we have a rational foreign policy in place, the administration's economic recovery program is well underway, health care reform is on the schedule, the labor secretary is actually pro-labor, and the torturers are slowly being flushed out into the open.

Cleansing Washington of right-wing poison isn't like taking a dose of penicillin for the clap, its like cancer chemotherapy. It takes years to clean it all out of your system.

The party's top elected leaders in Congress, meanwhile, spooked by being attacked as the "party of no," were recasting themselves as a constructive, respectful opposition to a popular president.

Well, if Politico says it, it must be true.

The Republican base hated John McCain, but the Republican party still managed to have him get nominated. Pragmatism won the day, but not fortunately, the election.

I'm amazed at the degree of confusion amongst republicans. I know a number of people who are relatively sane and they are repubs. Yet they seem to hang on to being a republican in spite of recognizing the fact that the leaders of their party at, the behest of the most radical elements, are leading them over a cliff.
It's like they're lifelong Cubs fans and no matter how inept the team is they're gonna keep on cheering for them.

@Midland: "We're getting out of Iraq....."

I wish I could be more certain of that.

I love it. The GOP as a national party is headed off the cliff, and those who remain are arguing over who can hit the gas pedal harder so they can get there a little faster.

I wish I could be more certain of that.

I'm actually quite certain that we're doing no such thing. What was that about a "residual force"? Pull the other one, Barack, it's got bells on.

The message for the GOP should be "greater prosperity for the nation; greater prosperity for the individual." They should distinguish themselves from Dems on policies that foster greater wealth creation for the nation and for the indivdual. They should argue that Dem policies (though not socialist, that is just stupid) seek to restrain growth, seek to restrain innovation by decrasing the reward for risk, etc.

This need not be strident and need not be silly, though I disagree with the ideology. That is a message consistent with the Wall Street and Main Street factions of the GOP. There is a large electoral block receptive to that sort of message.

Then, the debate will be over the future of innovation, the future of wealth creation, and the future of the US as an economic, intellectual, and services leader in the world economy.

It is a message that resonates because it relies on the (mistaken) belief of "ordinary" Americans that they too can be wealthy.

But, the GOP cannot now divorce themselves from the foot "soldiers" and the "spiritual" warriors and "freedom" fighters because that would put the South in play and they could get electorally crushed.

In truth, I think more places come into play around the country, but that would take time and none of the currently elected politicians from the South want to be the sacrifical Lambs for the betterment of the party as a whole. Hence, we have a retrenchment in the culture wars as the GOP retracts into a Southern, regional, and sadly bigotted party.

eric

Gandalf, my mother was just as you describe. She wasn't an idealogue; it was as if the republican party was her team, and she was nothing if not loyal. Thing is, she was a feminist, pro-choice, pro-social-program republican, who always wore her "Republicans for Choice" button to precinct meetings.

I suspect she just hated the hippies.

"The party's top elected leaders in Congress, meanwhile, spooked by being attacked as the "party of no," were recasting themselves as a constructive, respectful opposition to a popular president."

@Henry: yeah, I noticed that line right away.

Seemed to me to be a pretty hilariously stupid and dishonest thing to say.

This is straight-forward simple: When the enemies of my Constitution are given the choice, "Evolve or Die"---and their prophetic reply is, "We Shall Never Evolve!"---it is a thing of beauty. Onward Tealiban Soldiers! March off that cliff! Show your unborn descendants your unwavering commitment to the true, family-values meaning of suicidal extinction!!!

Steve, don't just focus on social conservatives among the Republican base, important as they still are. There is the anti-regulatory Wall Street wing (GWB: "The haves and the have-mores. ... I call 'em my base.") They want to impede regulation despite the damage already caused by the bubble collapse. They want low capital gains taxes, despite the incitement to speculation and investment corruption that contributed greatly to our predicament. Rush/ReRushlickins actually support both but they don't talk it up to avoid tipping off the other half of the base.

Below is a good piece on how hobbling the regulatory agencies added about 60% to the price of oil last year (don't believe flabby attempts to put that big spike into context as mere market forces, there wasn't enough demand by actual consumers v. supply to warrant that.)

http://money.howstuffworks.com/oil-speculation-raise-gas-price.htm

I do wish conservatives would pay attention to their philosophers. I'm thinking Kirk and Burke, for example. Conservative values celebrate judicious prudence, dignity, refinement, and good manners, among other things. I doubt there can be a real conservatism without them. Republicans need to turn to a new, civilized leadership. Who? Orrin Hatch? Sam Brownback?

I hope to see a Gingrich-Palin ticket for 2012! It will unite the cerebral cutting edge of our Party with our down-home, social-conservative base. The combination of a top conservative intellectual and a spunky fightin' gal who just won't give up, will electrify an exhausted nation tired of Obama's socialism and appeasement. The joy, of seeing you dumbfounded and crestfallen libs sputtering as American greatness is once again restored!

"Rank-and-file Republicans remain, by all indications, staunchly conservative, and they appear to have no desire to moderate their views.... There is little appetite for compromise on what many see as core issues..."

Ask any "conservative" and they will eventually admit that they have no interest in democratic governance / compromise. At all. They feel that the general public (except for them of course) are too stupid to be allowed to have true power, and that a small number of "enlightened" leaders must hold power. This is basically a fascist worldview, and calling it anything else is a disservice to reality.

What's happening now in the GOP is that the corporate cronies who usually control the GOP are split, since many of them see the GOP crazies as dangerous, and for financial reasons are not inclined to attack Obama and thus assist the crazies. And without the corporate power brokers keeping the crazies in check, what we get is a slew of crazies running free on the media channels, who for their own financial reasons are feeding the base, which of course is a classic feedback loop. The base thinks all the crazy talk is downright sensible, and they keep the loudmouths fat and happy and loud.

And after being fed on a diet of full strength crazy talk for months/years, the GOP base is not going to be happy when the next GWB or McCain-style "moderate" is pushed forward. Like someone said, they have turned up the crazy and broken off the knob.

Live by the wingnut, die by the wingnut.

Who is the GOP protesting against? When President Obama's favorability rating stands at over 60%. When more than 50% of Americans think the country is going in the right direction -- up from 18% just a few months ago. When public support for Democrats is double that of Republicans. I think the answer is clear. Republicans are protesting against us.

Al sez: I hope to see a Gingrich-Palin ticket for 2012! It will unite the cerebral cutting edge of our Party with our down-home, social-conservative base. The combination of a top conservative intellectual and a spunky fightin' gal who just won't give up, will electrify an exhausted nation tired of Obama's socialism and appeasement. The joy, of seeing you dumbfounded and crestfallen libs sputtering as American greatness is once again restored!

Yes, please! Send out the serial cheater "smart guy" and the "fightin' gal" with the Jerry Springer family to re-establish "American greatness". They're perfect!

BWAHAHAHAHA

@wasa1:

Pragmatism won the day, but not fortunately, the election.

Mmm, I'd say it only won half the day. Remember, McCain was forced to choose Sarah Palin because there was the threat of RNC delegates putting forth their own VP nominee - on national television - had McCain selected Lieberman or any other pro-choice VP nominee.

It's still the party of crazy and it will continue to be so as long as the fundie tail wags the elephant.

What I don't understand is the intensity and anger among the conservatives I know. A number of them seem to be really nice, fine people - until some specific subject sets them off. It might be the threat of taking away their guns (a number of veterans I know are really adamant about that) or abortion, or public display of Christian symbols or teaching religion in public schools.

One thing many here in Texas seem to me to have in common is a rural or semirural background. Texas was primarily rural most of my life (I am age 66) but just passed being over 50% urban. Much of the internal Texas politics is about that urban - rural split. The recently deposed Speaker of the House (Tom Craddic) was a long-time defender of rural interests, but last year every major city in Texas except Fort Worth voted Democratic. The small town state leaders are a declining breed, since only the cities are growing as the population here increases. Even a lot of the suburbs created in the last 50 years to get away from city taxes are finding they have big-city problems now.

So I am pretty sure the big thing here in Texas is the urban - rural split as the state becomes rapidly more populous, urban and diverse. But I can't generalize to the rest of the nation. And while I think that is a big-picture explanation, I am not sure if it applies to a lot of the individuals I know.

So what in Hell accounts for the intensity? A wide-spread fear of loss and a number of conservative or evangelical organizations designed to accentuate that fear and play on it?

There is a lot of passion and hate floating around. The Republican party is in the thrall of Talk Radio. As long as the noise machine is yelling "We have had enough and we aren't going to take it anymore" and nothing else the Republican base will shrink as it becomes hotter and hotter at some point the current Republican party will burn out. Millions of dittoheads are going to be heart broken that their neighbors stopped listening to them. Sometime in the next few years a new party will emerge. Maybe it will rise from the ashes of the current party the way the new Democratic party emerged from the wreck that gave rise to Reagan, or maybe an entirely new party will emerge.

Arion

I don't think the Republicans are unified by their "philosophy." Instead, I think that their conservative thoughts are collected from various sources to appeal to groups that want to stop change from happening. The evangelists don't want modern religion to interfere with their literal reading of the bible. The free market people don't want the government enforcing environment regulations that put a crimp in their profits. Same with the Wall Street bankers. The ultra-conservative Texas and Oklahoma multimillionaire oil producers did not want the government to interfere as they raped property owners and the environment to rake in the profits - and they were willing to fund conservative think tanks to pump out the position papers. They also bought and supported politicians. But those wealthy demagogues were tapping into a variety of forms of the fear of change as American society grows larger and rapidly changes.

I don't have it very well mapped out, but I think that is the mechanism of modern American conservatism. It's financed by a wealthy plutocracy that doesn't want to lose its wealth (that's the source of the anti-inheritance tax movement) and peopled by individuals who fear that everything they consider important is being lost in the new society. Each of those two groups can be further broken down, but no conservative ideology really ties them together beyond fear of loss.

That's my best guess at the moment, anyway.

If that's the case, then the so-called conservative philosophy is a grab bag of issues that each find a different audience and each find a different wealthy elite to fund it. It will never be unified in any manner. It just evolves as the issues that make groups afraid evolve.

What has been clear is that the electorate overall is more moderate, or even liberal than the hard-bitten trogs on the right. Abortion, same-sex marriage, and other social issues do not resonate all that well with a majority. Appealing to these extreme cases was always a cynical move by the WSJ crowd, and the libertarian branch want small government not one that tells people how to live their lives according to the Old Testament.

It's difficult to foresee a situation where the economy not improving (although the banks and stock market are doing their best to create that impression), a change in the Iraq withdrawal timetable, or no significant progress in health care access will drive independents and Democrats into the lap of the wingnuts.

The Rethug base will be happy as a regional reactionary party rather than moderate its positions. Compromise is not their game. Absolute power is.

Many old-time Republicans are not unlike Roman Catholics. They always consider themselves Republicans no matter how much they disagree with what the party does or becomes. The ground is very fertile for a third party right now, and should it form the Democrats have a big problem. They might actually have to find a spine.

Racer X has it right: "...what we get is a slew of crazies running free on the media channels, who for their own financial reasons are feeding the base, which of course is a classic feedback loop."

We are not talking so much about the Republican Party as a reactionary movement with a head of steam. No Steele can counter the acid we see tossed in our faces every day, even by those whom we might consider sane, e.g., David Gregory on MTP.

This is a juggarnaught that will reap a whirlwind for which that DHS notice was fair warning. I am sixty, from Ohio to college in DC way back when riots were a way of life. Our family has gone to The Mall to watch the fireworks for thirty-five of the last forty years. Not this year.

Midland wrote, Hmmm . . . what makes you think we aren't making progress? We're getting out of Iraq, we have a rational foreign policy in place, the administration's economic recovery program is well underway, health care reform is on the schedule, the labor secretary is actually pro-labor, and the torturers are slowly being flushed out into the open.

Some of those are valid and good.

But...getting out of Iraq? Jury's still out on that one.

Economic recovery program: I thought the stimulus was reasonable, actually too small, but Obama et al. are giving trillions of dollars to the banks and their share- and bondholders. That'll come out of our pockets, either via increased taxes or inflation.

Katon Dawson, the outgoing South Carolina Republican Party chairman, added, "There is a sense of rebellion brewing."

And an unreconstructed Southern traitor from the cradle of Southern Treason would certainly know all there is to know about "rebellion."

Too bad my Union ancestors didn't ethnically cleanse the heart of the treason when they had the chance 145 years ago.

Why should they moderate their views? They don't have to win an election to take power. They remember 2000 better than you do.

Katon Dawson, the outgoing South Carolina Republican Party chairman, added, "There is a sense of rebellion brewing."

Someone should ask her, "against what, exactly?" These people are just upset at having a black president, who was legitimately elected. They can't get away with actually saying such a thing, so they have "tea parties" and talk about a "rebellion." And this, after their party has very nearly succeeded in destroying the country. She ought to be charged with treason and thrown in the nearest prison.

GOP=Pro Wrestling fans. Sigh. Note there is always a bad guy to shout down, and a hero wrapped in a flag spouting defiant mumbo-jumbo. And it is fake. When Boehner starts paying people to hit him with a folding chair while he is grabbing a mic, the parallel will be exact.

It seems to me that this would be a great time for some ambitious Republicans to split off and create a sane conservative party.

The future of the Republican party may be seen in the present-day status of the California Republican party. It is in thrall to the social conservatives, and as a result can only win minorities in the legislature. It consistently loses elections at the statewide level (Arnold was an anomaly in that he did not have to go through the Republican primary process to win the first time; incumbency and celebrity protected him in the nomination for re-election). The only reason that conservatives have any traction at all is via the legacy of Prop. 13 thirty years ago, which imposed a 2/3 majority to pass a budget. If this year's chaos in passing a state budget continues to be the norm, that will soon go away as well the same way it came in, i.e. through the initiative process (which requires only a simple majority to pass).

If the Republican leadership had balls, they would simply yell, "Shut up, you backward southerners!" and not care about those fundamentalist folks' social issues uber alles point of view. Of course, despite their macho rhetoric, GOP leaders really don't have any balls...

In the late Sixties Democrats split roughly between their Boomers and their generations born before WW2.

It seems to me the GOP is now splitting in an analogous fashion- roughly between their Boomers and GenX/Yers.

Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman -- the most devoted modernizer among the party's 2012 hopefuls --

I didn't get past this line. If the most devoted modernizer in the GOP is the Governor of Utah, I think the party's problems are insurmountable.

I said after the 2006 elections that there was no way in hell would the GOP look at the historic butt whoppin' with any kind of self reflection, or with another look at their movement and ideology to see why Americans rejected it. They'd just think they upset The Base.

Then in 2008, when it happened again, they decided it wasn't that The Base was upset -- it was with McCain, but Palin made it all better -- it was that they just didn't go far enough to the right and truly enact what they want.

And that's their plan for the future: To double down on The Crazy to placate The Base, and somehow prove -- despite reality -- that there is still a conservative majority.

It'd be comical to watch so many slip into a collective delusion ... if it weren't so damned dangerous.

"These rank-and-file Republicans that make up the party's base have a straightforward agenda"

The "base" has become a cult who worships a series of minor-league Jim Jones. But its the Republican Party who's being force fed the Kool-Aid.

The big problem for the GOP is not just that they sold their soul, but enough of these kooks have gotten a foothold in the Party that it will be impossible to turn things around. The Republican Party is being swallowed whole by a monster of their own making. I really believe we will see a third party emerge that will encompass the moderate wing of Republicans. It will be a long, ugly battle, but eventually the Republican Party that exists now will be relegated to a side-show attraction.

The result is obvious: a Republican Party that stays exactly as it is now. Same coalitions, same priorities, same ideology, same agenda.

Actually, the more obvious result is a Republican Party that moves even further to the right (i.e. into "soft" Timothy McVeigh territory) and gets even more brutally decimated in 2010 and 2012.

Which works fine for me.

A lot of them are "motivated, concerned and angry" for one simple reason: There's an uppity negro sitting in the White House. This ain't rocket science, folks.

This has been said before, and better, and not to be alarmist but there will be at least a couple of these deeply disturbed folks, these tent show revival, pro wrestling, cartoon passion play moralists who will take some kind of extreme action. In fact, I personally think that the DHS report that so raised the reich's ire was in fact a shot across the bow, and a damned good one. "We are watching you, with the tools that YOU put into place. So play nice." Chin music, of the best kind.

It's hard for me to take this article seriously since it didn't mention once -- not even once -- the role that the rightwing broadcast media, in other words, Fox and the talk radio loons, are playing in heating up the rhetoric.

How can you talk of "rebellion brewing", if you don't take into account one of the most obvious factors egging on the 'rebellion'?

Talk about junk journalism...

This is a direct consequence of the creation of the right wing media machine. We're in a new, experimental phase of politics that hasn't been seen before.

You see, in the bad old days the party on the outs would lick its wounds for a while while coming to grips with the reality that they were in the minority, and eventually adapt to that reality by moving more toward the center.

However, the Republican rank-and-file is under the illusion that they are in some kind of silent, apparently non-voting, majority, because all their media tells them that. So instead of going throught he normal cycle of despair and resolution they are simply in angry denial.

There are two possible outcomes. One is that the Republicans continue down this path, moving farther and farther out of the mainstream, until even the center-right MSM types like John King and Sheppard Smith won't have anything to do with them. In 1964 the joke was that the US didn't have a two party system, it had a one-and-a-half party system. The Republicans could be headed for that territory again, only without even the Southern Strategy as a way out.

The other outcome would be one of organized violence. Unlikely, but certainly something that would be supported by the remaining Republican rank-and-file.

Sarah Palin/Foghorn Leghorn 2012

"The other outcome would be one of organized violence. Unlikely, but certainly something that would be supported by the remaining Republican rank-and-file."

The "tea parties" were a shakedown cruise, just to see how many of their people would take to the streets. I think they were badly disappointed.

Katon Dawson, the outgoing South Carolina Republican Party chairman, added, "There is a sense of rebellion brewing."

Are there any major buildings in South Carolina’s capitol that are more then 150 years old?
No? well then maybe Katon Dawson should consider the reason for that

Perhaps the GOP was a paradoxical time bomb; built into the idea of Conservatism is the resistance to change, strict adherance to the old, the tried, the "true", the traditional. But nothing that refuses change can survive.

http://theunapologeticmexican.org/elmachete/2009/04/26/the-danger-of-becoming-a-conservative-liberal/

Ohhhh, I LOVE the idea of a Gingrich/Palin ticket! Obama won't even have to stop Presidentin' to campaign!

Reminds me of the GOPer complaining to me after the election about how Obama voters were anti-woman because they voted against Palin. His genius answer? They should have put "Condi Rice" on the ticket.

Yeah, she was female AND black! She would have got all of the female votes AND all of the black votes! Except she was a loyal and incompetent Bush tool who had an oil tanker named after her years before she got into politics.

There is little chance the GOP will outsmart anyone for a long, long time.