There have been no terrorist attacks since Specter switched parties.

interesting. once upon a time he was a loyal democrat. then he became a loyal republican. now a loyal democrat again. heard him on npr yesterday admitting that he was republican roadkill but that he had a strategy to deal with it.

"I'm a loyal Democrat. I support your agenda."

"[Democrats] are trying very hard for the 60th vote. Got to give them credit for trying. But the answer is no."

Same Ol' Arlen. Grassroots, time to line up behind a real Dem, party leaders be damned.

this is more about perceptions and the long game more than it is about vote number 60. talk about taking the air out of the media's torture balloon, this will occupy them for at least a few news cycles. This is about the fading GOP, with this following on the heels of the tedesco loss.

My guess is that Specter agreed to vote for cloture on almost everything, even if he has the liberty of not following the dem majority. that is what matters.

There are a lot of important votes that need to happen before 2010 and even as a 'no' vote, Specter voting yes on cloture gets everyting that much closer.

the pressure will now the northeastern ladies because the cloture votes are where the action is and, other than the hard core idealogues, most senators do not want to vote no on every cloture vote.

good times not to be a gop'er
eric

I think another question is, what did Specter promise for the full support of Dems? We know he already backed his promise not to support EFCA, so he had to give them something, didn't he?

matt, my guess is the cloture vote on EFCA, at least. in such circumsanceshis no vote on the merits is meaningless (other than to the labor voters in PA)

I sure hope there is a choice in a Democratic primary. It's time for Arlen to retire.

Yeah, he has to vote for cloture on EFCA regardless of whether he actually votes for the bill. Otherwise, I don't really see what the difference is as far as the major issues of this year are concerned.
I don't think he would have changed his position if he weren't trying to save his political ass, and now it would look too obvious if he did another 180, but he can at least allow an up or down vote.

It's amazing to me, the number of people who are searching for a downside to this. No, it will not bring about progressive nirvana. But it alters the playing field for the next year and a half in a dramatic way. There's no chance Biden/Reid & Co. allowed Specter to switch just for his own benefit. They clearly expect him to exhale -- now that he doesn't have right-wing pressure at every second -- and vote with them on judges, on cabinet appointments, on mnay major issues, and particularly on filibusters. (Even, as many are saying, on cloture over EFCA, even if he sticks with his too-recently-articulated-to-change position against the bill itself)

And his own self-interest will kick in here, too. No matter what Ed Rendell has promised, if Specter were to be a barely-above-replacement-Pub vote over the next year, there'd be a Ned Lamont-ish primary campaign against him that he'd have every chance of losing. It behooves him to stick as close to the Democratic party line as he can. And history shows that party-switchers, once they get in the groove, tend to vote with their new parties more and more frequently.

Yeah, if we'd waited for Toomey to knock him out in a primary next year, we'd have likely taken the seat in '10 with a more certain/dependable Democratic vote. But that assumes the votes in the '11-'12 Congress are of more importance than the ones to come in this one. I'll take the bird in the hand right now, and visualize all the fine things that can happen over the next 18 months.

This is the best 100th day present Obama could possible have received.

Allan Snyder - Specter specifically said he would vote against cloture on EFCA.

Note to Dems: Please, please, please. Do not give Specter chairmanship of any committees. Especially Judiciary.. Well, OK. Maybe Homeland Security.

Imagining for a moment (and I know it's hard to do but remember we humans are pretty complex) Specter actually has some matters of principles in mind as part of his switch, I wonder if Sibelius Theater was the final object lesson he needed to confirm the GOP as hopeless?

Hang on a second. Will the Democrats get a 60th vote, or will Specter vote much as he has before and just avoid a primary challenge?

Certainly before Specter gets to chair a committee as a Democrat, the Dems need to extract a price.

Doesn't matter whether Specter votes for cloture on EFCA or not, because of Sen. Lincoln (D-Wal*Mart).

I'd be willing to bet he turns out to be more "loyal" than Ben Nelson, and maybe even Evan Bayh.

My guess is that Specter agreed to vote for cloture on almost everything, even if he has the liberty of not following the dem majority. that is what matters.

This seems likely to me, too.

It's amazing to me, the number of people who are searching for a downside to this. -demtom

Doesn't take a whole lot of searching to find a downside to having another conservadem and a fixed primary limiting PA Democrat's choice.

It does, however, take a whole lot of mental gymnastics to pretend that Specter will be a good Democrat.

So much for fixing this at the ballot box.

"Allan Snyder - Specter specifically said he would vote against cloture on EFCA."

No. He said would oppose EFCA. He didn't promise
to filibuster it. Maybe he will, maybe he won't.
It's probably moot, because conservative Dems have
been making negative noises about EFCA and it
seems as though it won't be pushed this year.

Anyhow, the big questions about Specter are:

1) What committee assignments does he get ?

2) What promises did he make in return ? Is he
going to follow Reid's line on cloture votes ?

Specter's statement is a little vague, but he
seems to be claiming that he didn't make any
promises about his vote. But surely he had to
offer *something* to get decent committee
assignments ? After all, he left it so late that
its clear his switch is pure self-interest - he
can't survive a Republican primary. So his
bargaining position is very weak.

Hang on a second. Will the Democrats get a 60th vote, or will Specter vote much as he has before and just avoid a primary challenge?

I have complete confidence that the Democratic leadership will find a way to get as little benefit from this as possible.

It does, however, take a whole lot of mental gymnastics to pretend that Specter will be a good Democrat.

Who is doing that?

Arlen specter democrat-what the fuck does it again!
arlen specter democrat-must go !?

qwerty nailed it. With Harry Reid running the show, the Dem leadership will use their leverage about as well as the Detroit Lions at contract negotiation time. I expect Arlen to get everything he wants, without having to promise anything.

My guess is that Specter agreed to vote for cloture on almost everything, even if he has the liberty of not following the dem majority.

Specter agrees to lots of things.

My guess is that the only change we'll see in the Senate is that partisan filibusters will be replaced with bipartisan filibusters.

"Dems promised not to field primary candidate against Specter. Obviously they can't stop someone from running, but it does mean the state party and the DSCC will throw their weight behind Specter to some degree."

Forgive me if I'm restating somebody else's comment, but if I'm running the DSCC, I don't know if this is a deal that I would have made. We'll see, but we could be getting short-term gain for long-term pain. I'm wondering if we're going to have another Evan Byah on our hands when we could have had another Russ Feingold?

I'm wondering if we're going to have another Evan Byah on our hands when we could have had another Russ Feingold?

That's funny; I just told a friend earlier today that Pennsylvania is not about to elect a Russ Feingold. But again, I'd like to hear what Pennsylvanians think about that.

No matter how you cut it, the switch is a win for the Democrats. Let us assume Specter doesn't vote for cloture all the time. That is much better than not voting for cloture any of the time. So far the ARRA vote was about the only time any Republican has voted to allow an up or down vote in the Senate. It took a lot of arm twisting to get Specter and the ladies from Maine. This switch eliminated any chance of a total shut down of Congress for the next two years. That is what McConnell and the Republicans have been angling for. This development is a dagger right in to the Republican heart.

As to cutting deals with moderate Democrats, I think we are asking too much not to have to give in to Blue Dogs at least a little. Frankly, moderation is not a bad thing if you are really trying to govern.

My guess that over time Specter's switch will lead a lot of more moderate Republicans to break with the fringe loving Republicans currently in total control.

as an active pa dem, i am appalled at the idea of arlen as our nominee. he will surely be primaried but fear of toomey could keep things tame. i urge everyone to write to arlen and demand actual democratic voting record before gaining any support-and i worry that, if re-elected, he will revert to his totally self-serving self anyway. ugh...sold out by the establishment again.

Throughout his 4 month court challenge, Norm Coleman has maintained that the point is voter enfranchisement, while his critics believe it's about GOP obstructionism.

If Norm suddenly puts up extra fight just because of Specter, that question will have been answered.

White House had no knowledge... Bull Shit. This is unquestionably an Obama-style tent increasing plan, but there is only one man in the Government who could have pulled this off.

Specter wouldn`t open the door for Rahm, he would be cordial to Obama, but the only one who could get him to switch would be Biden.

This is looking to be a very good VP selection. Wait a month or two and see if we pick up Snowe and or Collins.

No matter how you cut it, the switch is a win for the Democrats.

Maybe. That certainly remains to be seen.

But the more pertinent question for those of us concerned with small-d democracy is whether this is a win for PA.

At least someone at the Trib is asking that question.

Interesting piece by Sargent in the Plum Line about how Biden has been talking with Specter a lot. Maybe it wasn't a hard sell (until recently) but keeping a keeping open collegial lines of communications.