Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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May 1, 2009
By: Hilzoy

Paul Krugman Asks An Excellent Question

Paul Krugman's column today is on the costs of cap and trade:

"If emission permits were auctioned off -- as they should be -- the revenue thus raised could be used to give consumers rebates or reduce other taxes, partially offsetting the higher prices. But the offset wouldn't be complete. Consumers would end up poorer than they would have been without a climate-change policy.

But how much poorer? Not much, say careful researchers, like those at the Environmental Protection Agency or the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Even with stringent limits, says the M.I.T. group, Americans would consume only 2 percent less in 2050 than they would have in the absence of emission limits. That would still leave room for a large rise in the standard of living, shaving only one-twentieth of a percentage point off the average annual growth rate.

To be sure, there are many who insist that the costs would be much higher. Strange to say, however, such assertions nearly always come from people who claim to believe that free-market economies are wonderfully flexible and innovative, that they can easily transcend any constraints imposed by the world's limited resources of crude oil, arable land or fresh water.

So why don't they think the economy can cope with limits on greenhouse gas emissions? Under cap-and-trade, emission rights would just be another scarce resource, no different in economic terms from the supply of arable land."

Krugman is right. One of the main points of markets is to provide incentives to people to use their ingenuity to solve problems in the most efficient way. Cap and trade is a straightforward market solution to a straightforward market failure. There's no earthly reason why anyone who believes in the marvelous benefits of markets to decide that when it comes to reducing carbon emissions, those benefits will magically cease to exist.

Hilzoy 2:50 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (11)
 
Comments

Yeah, just like the free market in land ownership works out so stunningly for all concerned in Latin America!

There's this little question of who gets to own the property -- that pesky question that keeps coming up in Latin America -- that also applies to cap and trade.

Posted by: Steve Sailer on May 1, 2009 at 2:56 AM | PERMALINK

Huge profits are made by transferring costs from the individual firm to the public at large. This is a normal and natural part of capitalism as seen by most wingnutters.

To address Steve's concern, there are ways to deal with the market distortions caused by concentrated wealth.

In any case, we have to stop treating the atmosphere as a common sewer.

Posted by: Disputo on May 1, 2009 at 3:26 AM | PERMALINK

.
Crony capitalism only has one rational principle: Me First. Everything else follows this. Any other consideration claimed is pure BS, meant to serve "ME 1st."


Hate to admit it, but for once their lapdogs, the Repukelickin's, are right. The answer to this is socialism. Not their kind of topsy-turvey national socialism: Real mixed-market democratic socialism, of an uniquely American kind.

It's time we gave all these right-tards the coup de grace.
.

Posted by: cosanostradamus on May 1, 2009 at 3:55 AM | PERMALINK

Regarding Mr. Krugman's continued dependency on market forces: We've seen how "the dependability of the market" produced bundled investment packages "ad nauseum" to contain a spiked proliferation of toxic debt. What prevents the same thing from happening here? Suppose some "Wizard from the 'Street" concocts a new way to bundle a cap-&-trade permit, and the end result turns "n" amount of permit into something that looks twenty times its size? The regulatory capacity to prevent this just doesn't exist---and a spiked proliferation, in this case, could be a Pandora's Box of many terrible things....

Posted by: S. Waybright on May 1, 2009 at 4:01 AM | PERMALINK

Did NESHAPS cause industry to be innovative or did it cause many industries to move industry outside the U.S. How much innovation has taken place to build new refineries or chemical plants to comply with the NESHAPS and the CAA?

Posted by: superdestroyer on May 1, 2009 at 6:01 AM | PERMALINK

Yeh. Krugman's plan is exactly right -- to convince industry to invest heavily for the next three years in the Republican party to throw out Obama and all the longterm costs of his program.

Duh. What's Dr. K thinking?

The lesson of California's Phillip Burton, as partly visible on his statue:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3275/2475317929_64de0cc38e.jpg
"The only way to deal with the exploiters is to terrorize the bastards."

Posted by: Hank R on May 1, 2009 at 6:25 AM | PERMALINK

Thank you for the post Hilzoy.

We need more attention on cap and trade because the only way the GOP will ever allow passage of it under any form, is if Democrats and the nation drag Republicans and their oil industry cronies kicking and screaming toward progress.

I expect this to be the fiercest and nastiest fight waged by Republican against the Obama administration, surpassing the attacks against health care reform by far. This hits Republicans closest to home, and they won't go down without one hell of a fight.

Posted by: palinoscopy on May 1, 2009 at 9:27 AM | PERMALINK

There's this little question of who gets to own the property -- that pesky question that keeps coming up in Latin America -- that also applies to cap and trade.

Under a cap and trade program, the people (through the government) own the property, and sell off the rights to pollute part of it via auction. It's not really so difficult. The current system, or one in which the permits would not be auctioned off, would be much more like land under Latin America's traditional oligopolies, since only a relatively few corporations pollute without incurring the social costs.

Posted by: ed on May 1, 2009 at 9:30 AM | PERMALINK

The real problem with US cap and trade is that it is for domestic fuel consumption only. This will drive energy intensive industries across the border, or overseas and the carbon will enter the atmosphere without the tax, and probably with even fewer pollution controls than if the businesses stayed here.

This is a global problem. The best solution would be to create a worldwide limit on carbon fuel use.

The 2% reduction in 2050 actually implies a large per-capita reduction as we can expect our US population to grow at 1.5% a year. If this 2% reduction includes the carbon footprint of all the foreign products we import, then the figure is only mildly encouraging. But we really need something like an 80% reduction in output of carbon, not 2%.

Posted by: tomj on May 1, 2009 at 10:41 AM | PERMALINK

Something needs to be done immediately, or Mother Nature is going to impose a cap on the human species.

With no trading.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on May 1, 2009 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK

Maybe there's some recursive form at work in the universe: Black holes have the beautiful power of concentrating mass, time, energy and all that other stuff, and as they get more massive, they bleed more and more of the "real" assets of the "known universe" into singularities. With a lot of what we puny humans choose to call "violence." Jets of deadly energy, gravity gradients that rip everything else to shreds to feed the insatiable collective lust of those things whose reality we acknowledge but whose "motives" are so hard for ordinarly mortals to understand.

Sounds like a lot of kleptocrats I hear about.

Posted by: JTMcPhee on May 1, 2009 at 8:18 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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