May 1, 2009
A CULTURAL SHIFT.... With four states now allowing gay couples to legally marry, some conservatives predicted a public backlash. The American "mainstream," they argued, would see these developments as too much change, too quickly, and the trend would only help the conservative push against marriage equality and give a rallying cry to the GOP base.
Recent evidence suggests their predictions had it backwards. As same-sex unions become more common, public acceptance is growing, not shrinking.
This week, a NYT/CBS poll found that 42% support gay marriage, an all-time high, while only about a fourth of the country is opposed to any legal recognition.
Yesterday, ABC News released a similar poll with even more encouraging results.
At its low, in 2004, just 32 percent of Americans favored gay marriage, with 62 percent opposed. Now 49 percent support it versus 46 percent opposed -- the first time in ABC/Post polls that supporters have outnumbered opponents.
More than half, moreover -- 53 percent -- say gay marriages held legally in another state should be recognized as legal in their states.
The surprise is that the shift has occurred across ideological groups. While conservatives are least apt to favor gay marriage, they've gone from 10 percent support in 2004 to 19 percent in 2006 and 30 percent now -- overall a 20-point, threefold increase, alongside a 13-point gain among liberals and 14 points among moderates.
When support for gay marriage among self-identified conservatives triples over the course of five years, it's safe to say the culture wars aren't going well for the right.
Now, in fairness, not all poll results are as encouraging. While CBS shows 42% support for marriage equality, and ABC puts the number at 49%, Quinnipiac released a poll yesterday that put the number at 38%. And while that's disappointing, the good news in the Quinnipiac poll was that a majority of respondents support ending the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy, allowing civil unions, allowing same-sex couples to adopt children, and having states recognize gay unions from states where marriage equality already exists. (There's also some concern that the wording of the Quinnipiac question on gay marriage might have skewed the results a bit.)
Nevertheless, the larger trend is unmistakable -- conservatives are losing this fight and the culture is unlikely to shift back in their direction.
The right hoped for a backlash, but Americans saw gay marriages become more common, and noticed that civilization remained unaffected.
—Steve Benen 8:45 AM
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Everyone knew this was going to happen. The only surprise is how fast it's happening. I predict in 12 months another 5 states will have gay marriage.
Posted by: cash on May 1, 2009 at 8:44 AM | PERMALINK
funny how the so-called "conservatives" are against governmental intrusion into personal life except when they want the government to intrude in personal life
the rising numbers we see in support of marriage equality are the front edge of a generational tsunami that will soon swamp the opposition. The younger the person, the less gay marriage is an issue. For them, as for a true conservative, the reaction is "whatever" ...
Posted by: sjw on May 1, 2009 at 8:48 AM | PERMALINK
The history of most expansions of civil rights, whether it is blacks and whites inter-marrying or gay rights, seems to follow a similar trajectory. At first, most people are uncomfortable with changing attitudes and conventions. They like the way things. It makes them feel secure. And they see any loosening of social convention as just "wrong."
For a time they are willing to convert this personal ambivalence into a political commitment. Polls show opposition to the change and voters agree that "there ought to be a law against that sort of thing."
But then the realities of politics begin to show themselves. Bigotry and ugliness emerge. And when an opportunist political movement, which is almost always right wing, tries to use that middle America ambivalence as wedge issue for political gain the damage this hatred does to the social fabric leaves the average person feeling even more insecure than when the change was first suggested.
They grow tired of all the fighting and, like most people living in big cities where social peace requires tolerance for lots of different kinds of lifestyles and cultures, the average American decides it is better to live and let live so as to secure social peace and harmony. And they tell all those right wing zealots out there stiring up all this noise and resentment to go pound sand.
Posted by: Ted Frier on May 1, 2009 at 8:56 AM | PERMALINK
A republican perspective:
As much as the surface appearances are that we are losing our battle to keep our voting base in line by positioning against the gay agenda, we will continue the fight. The gays have too much value to us to be quietly allowed equal protections under the law.
Even if we end up losing one leg of our gays, guns, and abortion tools, we still have two issues to scare the crap out out of our voting base - the low information voter. If necessary, we will add other wedge issues to keep our stupid white supporters voting against their own economic self interests.
Posted by: RepublicanPointOfView on May 1, 2009 at 9:06 AM | PERMALINK
After decades of tactical positioning (wedge-driving) the GOP finds itself practically disarmed. How sad. Not.
Look, if the GOP thought there was some, as yet, unidentified voting bloc of cannibals out there, they's be eating their own children by lunchtime. Bon appetit!
Posted by: numi on May 1, 2009 at 9:26 AM | PERMALINK
You may be right, sjw.
But, I think a lot of this has to do with the uncloseting of gays in America over the last couple of decades [although I don't include Lindsay Lohan in this]. My 82-year-old mother, a churchly lady, once said she found homosexuality "disgusting." Then she discovered she knew several people who are gay. People she happens to like. Now she doesn't see anything wrong with two people being in love, whoever they are.
Nothing kills prejudice like discovering the people you've hated all this time are really just people. It can happen at any age.
Posted by: chrenson on May 1, 2009 at 9:28 AM | PERMALINK
You're seeing now why the right was so desperate to prevent gay marriage from actually happening. Because the more people see gays getting married and see how happy and non-threatening they are, the more accepting they become of it and it becomes so much harder to demonize.
The right hasn't yet lost the culture wars, but they're down in the fourth quarter and the clock is ticking.
Posted by: gf120581 on May 1, 2009 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK
To echo Chrenson's point....
My own experience has shown that simple visibility dispels as lot of myths about gay folk and helps bring acceptance. I have pictures of my partner in my office, I talk about what "We" did over the weekend in a matter of fact manner, and when asked "what is your wife's name?" I simply answer "Rick, and he prefers the term 'reason for living.' One people get to know me, and realize that my partner and I also worry about crime, fixing the plumbing, and the price of gas, the boogeyman of the 'scary gay guy out to recruit your kids' goes away.
Posted by: eeyore on May 1, 2009 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK
Americans saw gay marriages become more common, and noticed that civilization remained unaffected.
But wait, I'm sure I saw somewhere that swine flu is caused by the gay.
You know there's some idiot rightwing blog making exactly that point, somewhere.
Posted by: Bernard HP Gilroy on May 1, 2009 at 9:40 AM | PERMALINK
As a culture war issue, same-sex marriage is no slam-dunk.
If New Hampshire joins the other three New England states on same-sex marriage, and Maine at least has a struggle about it, there will be more pressure on New York and New Jersey to follow suite. Within a year or two the whole northeast may well have made its own statement in response to those states that have adopted, wrongly, constitutional amendments banning this expansion of civil rights.
The battle lines are being drawn for a major constitutional confrontation that has to at some point reach SCOTUS over DOMA. All the more reason to be concerned about who gets put on the court. if only Scalia, Thomas or Kennedy left the court for some reason, any reason, during Obama's presidency the issue would be ripe for clarification. Same-sex marriage is a Roe v. Wade of the future. No matter what the court decides ultimately, it won't be over.
Posted by: rRk1 on May 1, 2009 at 10:00 AM | PERMALINK
The right hoped for a backlash, but Americans saw gay marriages become more common, and noticed that civilization remained unaffected.
But isn't the storm gathering as we speak?
Maybe it will turn out to be a light, rain shower with a pretty double rainbow afterward.
The real question for the GOP is who are they going to demonize next for their political benefit? I guess that's why the NCNA is hitting the road in search of feedback.
Posted by: hopeful on May 1, 2009 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
To add to Ted Friar's chronology, the next step is for the Xtian wingnut conservative to claim credit for the transition (as they often do regarding woman's rights).
Posted by: Chopin on May 1, 2009 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK
Yes, the liberal agenda wins, and America loses.
But I guess Adam and Steve getting hitched isn't as bad as white girls marrying Muslims.
Posted by: Myke K on May 1, 2009 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK
i've never heard xtian wingnut conservatives take credit for women's rights but the faux noise monkeys lurve to tell their viewers it was republicans that passed the '60s civil rights legislation, not democrats.
i agree with those above who suggest equality in marriage is moving so fast because it has become much less frightening to many as they realize they have people near and dear who are gay AND the existence of gay people has not had a single negative effect on their life.
people have woken up to the fact that the "it will destroy hetero marriage" argument is just bullshit. there's an echo in people's heads of these same arguments being proved wrong with respect to interracial marriage.
gosh, look who's president -- a guy whose parents were not able to legally marry in some states at the time he was conceived and born.
are you going to tell some kid who's parents are gay that he/she can't be president one day?
Posted by: karen marie on May 1, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK
In 1993 my future wife* and I attended 13 weddings. Of them, the most memorable one was the one where the bride threw up and passed out at the altar, ironically as the choir sang "Taste and See That the Lord is Good." But, the most deeply moving of all was the lesbian commitment ceremony on the front porch of some good friends of ours. It was so much more about love and marriage and what it means to find your soulmate than any of the comically similar church weddings we lived through.
So, when we got married we decided to model our service after the commitment ceremony. Next to the birth of our daughter, that was the best day of my life. When I explained to my parents where we got the idea for the ceremony they were struck dumb. Then they met the couple and everything started to change for them. I could see it happening.
So, there's one gay marriage that led to a straight one. And it stuck!
Posted by: chrenson on May 1, 2009 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK
Many gays and lesbians have worried about and predicted a backlash. It was not an unreasonable prediction.
Posted by: Chris on May 1, 2009 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK
i've never heard xtian wingnut conservatives take credit for women's rights
Well, it's a pretty recent thing, and done entirely in the context of Muslim bashing. "Our Christian country is a bastion of freedom for the ladies, while Islam just wants to slap them in burqas and deny them drivers' licenses" is pretty much the way they go on.
Posted by: shortstop on May 1, 2009 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK
I know this is probably obvious, but I still find it fascinating that even as party identification in the GOP is lessening, approval within the party is growing. It gives me comfort that even some wingers are starting to come around.
And just to remind everyone, Myke is a parody troll...
Posted by: Kris on May 1, 2009 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK
"The right hoped for a backlash, but Americans saw gay marriages become more common, and noticed that civilization remained unaffected."
Of course, that sequence of events is persuasive only for people who judge predictions by outcomes.
Posted by: tamiasmin on May 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK
My guess is that it is the reality shows, especially The Amazing Race, that have shown Americans that gay people aren't scary and might reasonably have rights, too.
Posted by: catherineD on May 1, 2009 at 4:35 PM | PERMALINK
The MSM and congress are always 10yrs behind where the public has advanced. Too many bigots, closed minded fanatics, and the (cultivated by FOX) angry ignorant rave and believe they represent the majority of Americans but are finding out they are a minority and always have been as more and more citizens have found it necessary to get involved and start voting and letting their voices be heard over the ranting of these wingers. "I love your Jesus, It's your Christians that are so disappointing and intolerable".
Most of us just try to avoid conflict and argument but the right went way too far the past 30yrs (especially the last 12). They kept yelling "wake up Americans" and we did. Getting rid of these goobers is the first thing we began doing.
Posted by: bjobotts on May 1, 2009 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK
catherineD: Yes that is what I have always maintainded, that a gay presence in pop culture is an extremely importatant and not generally recognized factor in the advancement of gay rights. For regular ole middle class Americans watching Will and Grace or whatever is a subtle facimile, or amplifies, knowing or finding out that someone you know is gay. Back when Will and Grace was on (and in the top ten TV programs for years) there was debate about how Will never had a successful relationship, his main relationship was with a woman, Jack was a stereotype, etc.
Well, Will's woman friend deal was how it got on and why it worked for the great unwashed. Grace was a character with no problem with gay men and a complete understanding of gay culture. The show was a brilliant way for gay acceptance and gay concepts infiltrating into the mainstream. Ever watch Scrubs? The central relationship, often commented on by the characters, is between two straight (and black and white) guys. A bromance. Part of the same deal, pop culture working because it is inside the current thinking of people and subtly challenging and modeling and
influencing opinion at the same time. It's what the Homosexual Jewish Communinsts in Hollywood do.
Posted by: emjayay on May 1, 2009 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK