I have no idea whether the islands are sinking or not; offhand, I see no reason why they shouldn't be. But that would not show that global warming did not also contribute to what's happening: sea levels are rising, the main cause of recent sea level rise is climate change (pdf), and sea levels are rising particularly in the region where the Carterets are found:

I suspect it's a little of both. I grew in eastern Kentucky where undergrounding mining often caused areas to sink, or slough. Not the best example to high light the effects of Global Warming Hilzoy. But your still my favorite blogger.

Thanks. -- But I didn't write it to highlight global warming (thus the last bit); it was just the story of these people having to leave that seemed to me to want to be told.

it was just the story of these people having to leave that seemed to me to want to be told.

In that case, the post succeeds nicely.

Interesting - I guess I just assumed that water rose at an even rate everywhere.

1. volcanic islands like these do subside over time, but rates tend to be much less than the recent sea level changes.

2. Some portion of sea level change can can be localized if the surface water temperatures rise a lot, there will be local expansion of the water.

3. normally coral reef growth will keep up with subsidence of volcanic islands. Unfortunately the reefs are doing very poorly because of higher temperature and acidity of waters in that part of the world

A quick Google search of "Carteret" and "island" and "sinking" gives plenty of hits -- but so far, I have not found a single one that authoritatively states that indeed the island is sinking in absolute, geocentric terms. It's certainly sinking in relation to the ocean surface -- the only measure that's important to the natives. But is before getting all impressed with the fact that "sinking" isn't caused by global warming, perhaps it would be a good idea to find out whether the island is actually sinking in absolute terms.

My take: overpopulation- yes there are other factors including global warming, but the place was way overpopulated and such places are prone to massive disruptions.

The cause can still be global warming even though the local sea level increase exceeds the average sea level increase attributed to increased water in the oceans.

Local sea levels in the tropical Pacific are complicated by another factor -- warming of the ocean independently causes the local sea level to rise because warm water expands and takes up more volume. There are literally "mounds" of water in warmer seawater zones, which will increase in height without regard to global mean sea level simply because the water becomes warmer. I have no idea if this is a factor in the Caterets, but it is an observed phenomena in the western tropical Pacific.

related: hilzoy, et al...here's the real deal

one paragraph from a six page article...

The Maldives is an archipelago of 1,190 islands in the Indian Ocean, with an average elevation of four feet. Even a slight rise in global sea levels, which many scientists predict will occur by the end of this century, could submerge most of it.. Last November, when President Mohamed Nasheed proposed moving all 300,000 Maldivians to safer territory, he named India, Sri Lanka and Australia as possible destinations and described a plan that would use tourism revenues from the present to establish a sovereign wealth fund with which he could buy a new country — or at least part of one — in the future. “We can do nothing to stop climate change on our own, and so we have to buy land elsewhere,� he said in November.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/10/magazine/10MALDIVES-t.html?th&emc=th

Hello Steve and Hilzoy,

Luis Patron and I made this videobrief with Nichiolas Hakata giving a eyewitness overview of the current situation the island. The community's relocation committee have recently carried out a community-led relocation and resources survey.
It was calculated there are about 1500 people on the islands (150 families) with about 80 families now ready to relocate. They are looking to raise about US$2 million to relocate these families.

The community welcomes direct donations through their organization Tulele Peisa (http://www.tulelepeisa.org/) and are very interested to talk further regarding urgent Climate Change capacity building work right across the region.

For further information about United Nations University's Indigenous perspectives of Climate Change videobriefs please visit:
www.ourworld.unu.edu
and watch the other stories in the series:
http://www.vimeo.com/album/85004

Thanks for the link.

Best,
Citt Williams
UNU Media studio