Thanks for pointing out that in PA, Specter cannot pull a Liebermann if he loses the primary. I've been trying to point that out to people who are worried that Arlen will go independent if he loses the primary, thereby throwing the election to Toomey.

Now it's time for some real "Joe-mentum". Lol. I live in Pa., and will gladly vote for Sestak in a Dem primary against Specter. Unfortunately, my father will probably cancel out my vote, since he's a former moderate Repub turned Dem who likes Specter.
Regardless, Sestak is gonna be a tough candidate, as he's proven already. Great background, great personality, and supports the major parts of the Dem agenda without reservation, and without acting like some sort of a-hole prima donna concerned about nothing but his re-election and "legacy"(whatever Specter's is worth).
If Specter is re-elected, he'll go right back to his old ways, and will only "change" long enough to win. I don't trust him at all.

The difference between Pennsylvania and Connecticut...is that Specter wouldn't be able to run as an independent after the primary.

I'm curious, why not? Is there something about PA election law, or is it the registration dates, or are you just referring to the fact that the Republicans will probably back Toomey? Moreover, if Specter sees he's way behind Sestak a month or two before the primary, is there anything stopping him from dropping out of the primary and running as an Independent?

Is there something about PA election law

Yes, it's called a sore loser provision.

Actually, the party pretty much stabbed Ned Lamont in the back and did everything they could to get Lieberman re-elected even after he lost. They more or less told Lamont not to go negative, because they would take care of it. Then they didn't bother. They never punished the apostates who helped Lieberman. They did jack shit to help Lamont.

The national party should stay the HELL OUT of state primaries. It only serves as an inpediment to new voices coming into the political process when national parties (often behind the scenes) direct resources, money and endorsements to an incumbent or favored canidate to quench a state party that is divided on the subject.

Neither Harry "may he burn in hell" Reid or Obama has any right to dictate to Pennsylvania Democrats who they should pick to represent them. And they sure as hell should not dictate who can enter the race. The stink of Washington entitlement is disgusting.

Specter should face a true honest primary and if the democrats in Pennsylvania pick him (and there is a good chance they will) then more power to him. But for the national party to give him a clear shot is just plain WRONG.

In PA, if you want to run as an independent in the general election, you still have to have your nominating petitions filed before the primaries. Not sure how soon before the primary, but SPecter would have damn little time (if any) to file the petition if it looked like he was going to lose the primary.

Without such a provision, there'd be no reason for Specter to flee the Republican party. If he lost to Toomey in the primary, he'd just go idependent. Since he cant do that, he thinks his best chance is to file as a Democrat.

Instead of calling them "right-wing bloggers", may I suggest that, considering that they ape the tabloids, we simply call them "right-wing bloggoids"?

It might also be noted that the chances of rulings by a moderate lower-court judge being overturned are markedly greater these days given the radical right wing of the High Court running from Scalia and Roberts to Alioto and Thomas. If she has only had 3 rulings overturned by that crowd, she clearly isn't moderate enough.

@Danp:
Do you mean a Sore-Loserman provision? HAR HAR.

Sestak's been all over the TV the last few months, rivaling a certain Former Speaker for face time. You don't get to be an Admiral without knowing the ropes. not to mention the hawsers, lines, and bitter ends. . .

To Allan Snyder:

Don't worry about your dad cancelling your vote, Allen. I saw my 84-year-old father this past weekend-- he lives in Northeast Philadelphia-- and he already decided that if Sestak runs, he'll definitely support him! So, my dad will cancel YOUR dad...

What's up with PA Democrats? I've never understood why Specter appealed to them at all. While all politicians are either full-blown narcissists or at least borderline ones, Specter has consistently flaunted his own self-involvement, selfishness and neediness in really obvious and unattractive ways. Indeed, he and Lieberman seem to be Siamese twins in this regard.

PA (my birth state) can and should do better. I hope Sestak takes it all.

Arlen Specter's endorsement of the Employee Free Choice Act is crucial.
He needs the support of unions to be elected in Pennsylvania.
Union leaders are currently working towards this end. He is a tough cookie.
Kind of defensive, takes things personally, pulls the football away from Charlie Brown,
sways like the wind. We saw it with the Bush Administration.
He'd bloviate all against the Bush policies, then do the unexpected. But then it became expected..and Specter lost credibility.
Bob Casey was able to win over right winger incumbent, anti-working women ('you're selfish by working--stay home with your kids and live on one income, and never mind your rights) candidate Rick Santorum because of union activism on Casey's behalf.
Originally Specter supported EFCA--then changed his proverbial mind. This gets old.

[...] my father will probably cancel out my vote -- Alan Snyder, @16:17

A little laxative with breakfast should take care of that possibility (as the last resort, of course, if persuasion doesn't work)

Thinking a little longer term here...
Sestak is setting himself up as the go-to guy should a)anything happen to Specter, and b)next time after Specter shows his true colors to be less then earnestly Democrat.

Isn't it possible that Specter has simply forgotten what party he belongs to, the way he's forgotten in the past the tough stand he's taken against various issues only to cave and vote for those same issues later? I mean, he's getting on a bit, maybe things have started to slip his mind. Such as what he had for breakfast, where he put those darned slippers, and the fact that he never met a conservative viewpoint he didn't (eventually) endorse.

It's always struck me odd that a venue such as politics, where you should have your wits about you at all times and be able to follow several conversations simultaneously, allows participation by guys who are so old and dotty they can't be relied upon to wear pants when they go outside - but you can't work on an assembly line putting flashlights together after you're 55.

Good one, Mark
...so old and dotty they can't be relied upon to wear pants when they go outside

Think SPECTER is a political OPPORTUNIST? THINK HARDER!

Sestak's less than six months in the House, having won PA-7 -- that runs 60% Republican -- mostly because the R in question (the dishonorable Curt Weldon) was under major federal investigation for sending a million dollars of Russian money to his daughter's PR firm.

Can Sestak keep PA-7 in 2010? Maybe, if he keeps his nose clean and stays as moderate as he has been so far. Can the D's keep PA-7 if Sestak isn't running as an incumbent? Yes... but it will cost MILLION$.

Meanwhile, the only thing that could swing PA to elect a Republican for Senate is an expensive D primary that splits the voters.

So Sestak is endangering both PA-7 and PA-Senate.

"We saw a similar dynamic in Connecticut in 2006*. Joe Lieberman was the Democratic incumbent, and party leaders (including Obama) rallied to support his campaign. When he lost the primary, those same party leaders threw their support (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) to Ned Lamont."
_____________________________

Of course, but just imagine how much stronger Ned Lamont would have run in the general election if the full power of the national party had been behind him from the beginning.

Meanwhile, the only thing that could swing PA to elect a Republican for Senate is an expensive D primary that splits the voters.

Not gonna happen, no matter how competitive the Dem primary is. Once it comes to a general statewide election, with Obama supporting whoever the nominee is, it's a done deal. No way in hell Toomey wins, unless maybe there's some sort of strong third party candidate, and there's not.