and if he does that, kiss a 2012 win good-bye. The only chance the GOP has is with a non-mouth-breather, who can get moderates and indies to vote GOP.

If he throws all in with the wingnut wing, he is toast.

But if the next set of folks Pawlenty has to impress is Republican presidential primary voters, look for the governor to back Coleman's efforts indefinitely.

And if he does that, look for an impeachment, which if nothing else would pretty much kill his presidential ambitions.

Watch: Sarah Palin's going to do the same thing. She's a coward who won't face a tough and humiliating race to keep her seat next year. She'll concentrate her efforts on the 2012 GOP nomination for prez.

President Pawlenty? Paw-lease.

I have not seen any accumulation of opinions that direct my attention towards Pawlenty being impeached . Is that a real possibility or just a correct one ?

I am so conflicted. On the one hand, I am glad he's not running for re-election. On the other hand, Ratface Pawlenty can bite me for being such an idiot. Plus, this means he can slash and burn the budget with no reprisal. Great.

FREE AL FRANKEN

I would like to hope he would step up and do the right thing but likely he will try to thread the needle and try to please the only people who are left in the GOP while at the same time trying to look "responsible" so he doesn't appear like the complete and utter wimp he would look like by caving in.

I have not seen any accumulation of opinions that direct my attention towards Pawlenty being impeached

I don't think anyone is actually threatening it yet, but they could. The Dems have enough votes. And refusing to certify could justify it, especially if Pawlenty can't make a reasonable argument that the state election was fundamentally flawed. So far, I have heard no one make that argument.

Timing on presidential runs is a tricky business. At this point Obama looks invulnerable and the GOP brand is utterly trashed, so the smart bet might be to not run for the Republican nomination in 2012. But 3 years is a very long time in politics, and there could be any number of reasons things might change the calculus (continued economic collapse, terrorist attack, unexpected scandal). The smart bet in the wake of the first gulf war was that GHW Bush was invulnerable too.

Pawlenty has reached a point where he has to roll the dice; he could certify Franken and become the butt of Rush's derision (dooming his presidential hopes), or he can go all in by refusing to certify and thus dumping the governorship (pleasing the crazy wingnuts who could nominate him), and leaving himself unemployed and thus able to pursue a presidential campaign without distraction. Today's announcement means he's picked the second choice.

I have no idea if the MN state Dems would have the balls/votes to impeach Pawlenty. If they do it'll only endear Pawlenty even further to the wingnuts.

If the Minnesota Supreme Court orders that the U.S. Senate election results as they now stand be certified by the state, Pawlenty will have an out as he can say the law is the law when he puts his signature on said certificate. Whether or not he take it will be interesting, but I think Pawlenty will run in 2012 as the moderate, yet fiscally conservative Republican, rather than as a hyper-partisan type. We'll see soon enough.

Yeah, hell of a time to bail from our state's governor's seat. He veto's the budget worked out in a bi-partisan manner, starts hacking and slashing away at the poor, and generally made an ass out of himself.

With the purported cuts he's going to unilaterally make, after the unemployment jumps another 2 to 3 points, he'll be lucky to survive any further forays out his front door.

Let's not forget he said the would certify a winner after the MN Supreme Court made it's decision. He really has to or defend saying one thing and doing another. He won't make it past the primary if he doesn't certify. He can only hope the right will forget, funny, right.

Anyone with an R behind their name banking there future on a R presidency in 2012 isn't paying attention. It is going to take something un-natural for Obama not to stay. He has the black vote and R's are giving him the latino vote. I don't believe the R's have enough southern christian whites to get Obama tossed.

What a coward.

I guess losing an election before running for President would look bad, so better not to try.

How pathetic.

He's toast, no matter what direction he goes in now. His highest polling number is going to be "how many people want to be an honorary 'Paw-lbearer' when they tote his mange-infested political hide off to the graveyard."

Pawlenty has made no secret of his national ambitions, and by skipping next year's race, the governor will be able to work as a full-time presidential candidate with no day job.

But he won't have a governor's office as a platform. It's a difficult tradeoff, and I think historically not being in office is often a bigger negative than being a full-time candidate is a positive.

Against the grain: I know the conventional wisdom is that this decision pre-signals that Pawlenty won't seat Franken, but I suspect it may be the opposite -- that he is doing this NOW because he figures he will be seating Franken shortly.

Here's my thinking: Yes, Pawlenty is eyeing a presidential run. However, I think most people are wrong when they assume that only someone who is embraced by the Limbaugh base can win the Republican nomination. Remember that McCain won easily, despite being counted out as late as December 2007, and despite being absolutely loathed by Limbaugh and the base.

The reason is that the Republican primary system favors the more moderate candidates. It starts with Iowa, a purple state, and New Hampshire, a bluish New England state where Republicans tend to be like Chafee and Snowe. From there come several big states with open primaries -- states where independent and crossover votes can and frequently do change the outcome. Consider that in 2012 Obama is virtually certain to be running unopposed, so with no choice on the Democratic ticket the open primary states will have voter demographics more like the general election -- again favoring the moderate candidates.

The key, however, is to be perceived as moderate by the electorate. In 2008 both Guiliani and Romney had track records of being liberal on social issues, but their harsh rhetoric and appeals to the Republican base meant that neither was perceived as especially moderate. McCain, OTOH, had years of media support in building his "maverick" and "bipartisan" image. As the only Republican candidate with a solid moderate reputation, deserved or otherwise, he cruised to victory.

Of course, McCain had to pick someone from the base for his running mate, but such is the deal any Republican candidate will have to make.

Pawlenty already has some cred as a Republican moderate, but he hasn't yet tarnished it, as Romney and Jindal have, with rhetoric designed to woo the base. He must also know that his reputation as a moderate means that the base thinks of him as a "RINO" -- someone they tolerate but will never embrace.

What Pawlenty doesn't have yet, though, is a national presence or reputation, especially among the national media pundits. The Franken seating decision will be his first decision that will get national attention, so it is crucial. If he chooses to block the seating of Franken he'd be applauded by his party's base, and it would be expected, but it would hurt his moderate appeal. BUT, if he goes against the grain and seats Franken it would be exactly the sort of moderate-seeming move that the Broders and Brooks' types of pundits will love. It would be his ticket to national exposure and give him a chance to be seen as a serious Republican moderate.

Of course, if he does this his Govenor re-election chances are toast. He'd get primaried (unlike the Presidential race, state primaries pose a serious risk for Republican moderates) and surviving that, he'd probably lose a three-way race in the general.

So, he opts out of the re-election bid NOW, so that it doesn't look like he's giving up on re-election in response to the howls of protest from the Limbaugh dittoheads.

Obviously, I could be wrong. We should know soon.

Isn't he the guy whose office crowed about him overriding the state legislatures spending for roads & bridges ... on the very day that the I-35 bridge collapsed ?

And within hours after the collapse he is talking non-stop about how money was needed for roads & bridges.

But as always, market him to the morons as a moderate and he has a good chance in 2012.

After the demonstration of what a 'Police State' MN was during the convention I'd say we know exactly what to expect from this guy. Popularity waned???--ha. Putting teenage protesters on a terrorist list??? At least MN will be freed from Pawlenty.

Never forget...2000-2008. Second time ever a president elected in a yr ending in zero wasn't assassinated in off.

I wonder if Pawlenty's announcement might actually help Franken. Assuming the justices follow the news, they would have to be aware of the buzz around Pawlenty not certifying Franken to make friends with the far right. In that case, might they not make it clear in their decision that Pawlenty has to certify Franken or risk being held in contempt?

Redshift, "not being in office" didn't exactly hurt the late Ronald Reagan in 1980

Redshift, "not being in office" didn't exactly hurt the late Ronald Reagan in 1980

1980 is when Reagan finally *won*; he first ran for POTUS in 1968, only one yr after becoming CA gov.