June 15, 2009
RESULTS TO GET A REVIEW?.... When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced on Saturday that the presidential election results were final, he declared Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory a "divine assessment." Today, Khamenei, apparently aware of the questions surrounding the process, cleared the way for an investigation.
Iran's supreme leader ordered Monday an investigation into allegations of election fraud, marking a stunning turnaround by the country's most powerful figure and offering hope to opposition forces who have waged street clashes to protest the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
State television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directing a high-level clerical panel, the Guardian Council, to look into charges by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has said he is the rightful winner of Friday's presidential election.
The decision comes after Mousavi wrote a letter appealing to the Guardian Council and met Sunday with Khamenei, who holds almost limitless power over Iranian affairs. Such an election probe by the 12-member council is uncharted territory and it not immediately clear how it would proceed or how long it would take.
The credibility and integrity of such a probe remains unclear. If you're thinking the investigation is just a move to pacify protestors, giving the appearance of genuine concern when the predetermined outcome is already clear, you're certainly not alone.
Nevertheless, Khamenei's message about the matter being "followed through legal channels" has been repeated every 15 minutes on state radio.
Also in overnight news out of Iran, clashes between police and protestors have become increasingly brutal, and there were destructive raids at the dormitories of Tehran University. It's unclear whether Mir Hussein Moussavi is under house arrest, but both he and reformist cleric Mehdi Karroubi, another presidential candidate, have demanded a new election.
The NYT's Bill Keller and Michael Slackman, meanwhile, have an interesting piece, with a counter-intuitive point. While the controversy and ensuing protests would seem to weaken the legitimacy of Iran's ruling regime, Keller and Slackman argue that Ahmadinejad, at a minimum, has reinforced his ties to Khamenei, and the margin of the official results will be characterized as a "mandate" in the coming years for Ahmadinejad's agenda.
And speaking of running against the grain, while there's no shortage of concerns about alleged fraud in Iran's election, there are some credible voices arguing otherwise. The New America Foundation's Flynt Leverett made the case yesterday that there's been excessive "wishful thinking" from the West, while Ken Ballen, president of Terror Free Tomorrow, and Patrick Doherty of the New America Foundation, have a Washington Post op-ed this morning arguing that the official results "may reflect the will of the Iranian people."
Update: Jon Cohen offers a compelling rebuttal to the Ballen/Doherty piece.
—Steve Benen 8:00 AM
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The commentators who are pushing the idea that Iran's election results (the state-reported "official" results) reflect the will of the people, are these commentators who have historically been Israel hawks?
Israel needs Iran to be a bad guy, so Israel can continue its belligerent attitude and threats of bombing Iran while it continues to annex Palestinian land.
Iran electing a moderate government would leave Israel with one less credible excuse to make peace, which would mean an end to annexing land.
Posted by: Carl Nyberg on June 15, 2009 at 8:16 AM | PERMALINK
he declared Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory a "divine assessment."
And we should expect a "divine" result of the investigation.
Posted by: Danp on June 15, 2009 at 8:17 AM | PERMALINK
As I stated in a previous comment, I am a little concerned about the fraternity known as Terror Free Tomorrow ...a collection of deep thinkers also incuding John McCain and Bill Frist.
http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/template.php?section=AU
Anyone can find a poll to support their theories as Faux and Rasmussen have shown us.
Posted by: John R on June 15, 2009 at 8:20 AM | PERMALINK
are these commentators who have historically been Israel hawks?
Based on comments in other Washingtonmonthly posts, they include a lot of people who strongly disagree with Israeli policies, too.
Posted by: Danp on June 15, 2009 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK
Sounds too good to be true. If the situation wasn't so scary it would be laughable. "Free election" in Iran is an oxymoron for sure. Pass the popcorn and turn up the laugh sound track. The real Iranian leader has spoken. Again...
Posted by: stevio on June 15, 2009 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK
And from the archives, it has been learned that one Adolf Hitler appointed one Reinhard Heydrich to investigate the rumors of Ernst Rohm and his friends having been awakened, apparently, very rudely in the night.
Posted by: berttheclock on June 15, 2009 at 8:26 AM | PERMALINK
Hey berttheclock, you are obviously well versed in this part of history. For many your allusion to the 'Rohmputsch' might be a little bit obscure, but I'm afraid, it probably is spot on. One hopes though, that Moussavi will come out of this alive.
Posted by: SRW1 on June 15, 2009 at 8:58 AM | PERMALINK
One hopes though, that Moussavi will come out of this alive.
Unlikely.
Posted by: shortstop on June 15, 2009 at 9:07 AM | PERMALINK
We need to invade Iran immediately to free those people from the oppressive tyranny of their dictatorship...oh wait, W isn't in office anymore.
Carry on.
Posted by: Steve on June 15, 2009 at 9:24 AM | PERMALINK
Gotta love the notion of subjecting a "divine assessment" to legal review.
Posted by: beep52 on June 15, 2009 at 9:27 AM | PERMALINK
How times change - During the Blitz, Americans awaited the spoken word of Murrow from London via the radio - Fast forward to the TV images from Nam or the once proud CNN and their, at the time, intrepid reporters scurrying from debacle to debacle. Now, as Richard Sambrook, the BBC's Director of the BBC Global News writes about Twitter and YouTube:
"If you had a reasonable understanding of social media, how to set up and access information, if you had a reasonable understanding of news flows, a developed sense of skepticism and an above average understanding of the political situation in Iran, you would have emerged much better informed than the lay viewer relying on TV or radio news"
Posted by: berttheclock on June 15, 2009 at 9:36 AM | PERMALINK
sir,there is much illitracy ,mostly people are uneducated,there are not great socialworkerand hard worker toeducate people what is democracy and why it is essential forthe people.usa must help them in iran and arab and muslim world by usa social workersand around the world social workers with loveand slowlyand step by step with modren sorces,it is very challangend hard working job for the world.it will take long time and need great petaince for world practical soccial orker.this is very essential for world.thnkyou
Posted by: atiqkhan on June 15, 2009 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
All due respect to Mr Doherty and Mr Ballen but the Iranian people themselves seem to have very different opinions regarding the legitimacy of their election. Or is that a reflection of Western opinion also?
Posted by: tom c on June 15, 2009 at 11:10 AM | PERMALINK
Hey, why wait for all of this to play out ? Let's give full rein to our natural born instincts to shove our collective nose into everyone's business and judge everyone else in the world by our own flawless standards, and just go in there, bomb the shit out of Iran, and give them democracy just like we did in Iraq and just like we're doing so successfully in Afghanistan !
Posted by: rbe1 on June 15, 2009 at 11:11 AM | PERMALINK
Gee, Mousavi is not under house arrest as alleged ?
Posted by: Joe Friday on June 15, 2009 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK
This is interesting. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2009/06/about_those_iran_polls.html?wprss=behind-the-numbers
Why does the op-ed leave these important caveats out? 52% didn't even respond. What is the Washington Post up to?
Posted by: flanders on June 15, 2009 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK
I wrote about this last week. The Supreme Leader of Iran is the one who makes all the rules in Iran. He makes all the decisions in the country or controls all the decisions.
In order to even be on the ballot you must be approved by a 12 person panel. 6 of that panel are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other 6 are appointed by a group that is hand picked by the Supreme Leader.
Read more about it here and stick around for more good stuff-
http://libertarianhumor.com/2009/06/12/iran/
Posted by: BigEdsBlog on June 15, 2009 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK
berttheclock: And from the archives, it has been learned that one Adolf Hitler appointed one Reinhard Heydrich to investigate the rumors of Ernst Rohm and his friends having been awakened, apparently, very rudely in the night.
That's a good one. A group of Iranian clergy will review the election results and report that the most extreme of the clergy-approved candidates won -- coincidentally the one who is currently the nominal commander in chief of the
security forces, who has used his incumbency to promote his backers within the security forces. The security forces will doubtless guard the recount offices to insure their integrity. A pessimistic view, but not beyond possibility.
Meanwhile, thinking of the diverse historical analogies is about all we in the US can do.
Posted by: MatthewRMarler on June 15, 2009 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK
zbA6kV
Posted by: Ixkyzmcs on July 16, 2009 at 2:04 AM | PERMALINK