June 15, 2009
THE WRONG TIME TO REVERSE COURSE.... The still-weak economy no longer appears to be standing on the edge of a cliff. A few too many on the right interpret this evidence of the need to reverse course on the recovery efforts.
Congressional Republicans, for example, want to stop spending stimulus funds altogether. Pundits are warning of inflation, and the effect of deficits on interest rates. Reporters are running lengthy pieces about the Obama administration and the need to curtail government spending.
Paul Krugman thinks it's time for a reality check.
First of all, while stock markets have been celebrating the economy's "green shoots," the fact is that unemployment is very high and still rising. That is, we're not even experiencing the kind of growth that led to the big mistakes of 1937 and 1997. It's way too soon to declare victory.
What about the claim that the Fed is risking inflation? It isn't. Mr. Laffer seems panicked by a rapid rise in the monetary base, the sum of currency in circulation and the reserves of banks. But a rising monetary base isn't inflationary when you're in a liquidity trap. America's monetary base doubled between 1929 and 1939; prices fell 19 percent. Japan's monetary base rose 85 percent between 1997 and 2003; deflation continued apace.
Well then, what about all that government borrowing? All it's doing is offsetting a plunge in private borrowing -- total borrowing is down, not up. Indeed, if the government weren't running a big deficit right now, the economy would probably be well on its way to a full-fledged depression.
Oh, and investors' growing confidence that we'll manage to avoid a full-fledged depression -- not the pressure of government borrowing -- explains the recent rise in long-term interest rates. These rates, by the way, are still low by historical standards. They're just not as low as they were at the peak of the panic, earlier this year.
To sum up: A few months ago the U.S. economy was in danger of falling into depression. Aggressive monetary policy and deficit spending have, for the time being, averted that danger. And suddenly critics are demanding that we call the whole thing off, and revert to business as usual. Those demands should be ignored.
They haven't been ignored under similar circumstances in the past. In 1937, as the U.S. economy started to emerge from the Great Depression, FDR listened to Republicans and began to take deficit reduction seriously -- prompting another economic downturn. In the 1990s, Japan's economy started to recover, so policy makers turned their attention to spending cuts and deficit reduction -- prompting another economic downturn.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told G8 finance ministers that it's "too early" to "shift toward policy restraint," adding that deficit concerns must be set aside for now.
He's right.
—Steve Benen 9:25 AM
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More proof of you punks' cluelessness.
The economy is recovering just as it would have on its own if The One hadn't meddled. High time we stopped the "stimulus."
I always tell my patients that if they feel better after a couple of days of antibiotics they should stop taking them. It's not rocket science.
Posted by: Myke K on June 15, 2009 at 9:28 AM | PERMALINK
No myke it's not rocket science. In your case it's junk science. If your a doctor where did your degree from? I'll answer that for you. WhatsamattaU. Any first year intern knows from clinical studies that you complte the taking of all prescribed antibiotics. The reason has been repeatedly proven. just because your feeling better it doesn't mean that the problem has been comp[letly eliminated.YOUR A HACK AN A LIAR.
Posted by: Gandalf on June 15, 2009 at 9:36 AM | PERMALINK
Silly, silly Myke.
The economy runs on the fuel of confidence. Obama's stimulus package gave people confidence. There's no evidence that the economic downturn would have slowed as much as it has without the stimulus package, and quite a bit of evidence to suggest otherwise. Stopping the stimulus now would send consumer confidence into a tailspin.
I once had acute bronchitis; my doctor prescribed antibiotics. When I started feeling better, I stopped taking the antibiotics. In four more days, I was in the hospital with full-bore pneumonia.
I'm assuming you're on the level and not using sarcasm to make the opposite point; it's hard to imagine that someone so easily misled is actually allowed to have patients.
Posted by: Spanky on June 15, 2009 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK
Sorry for the misspellings but this nonsense by myke k got me fired up.
Posted by: Gandalf on June 15, 2009 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK
Then your patients should find someone else to listen to! Anyone on antibiotics should always complete the full course. Otherwise you are just leaving behind bugs with a better resistance to the antibiotic. Are you sure you should be dispensing medical advice?
Posted by: Astrogeek on June 15, 2009 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK
Surely Myke K is being sarcastic. He can't be that stupid, can he?
Posted by: gingerpye on June 15, 2009 at 9:40 AM | PERMALINK
Shorter Krugman:
Allies call of mobilization of armies after invasion of France, after hearing Hitler stubs toe.
Posted by: SteinL on June 15, 2009 at 9:45 AM | PERMALINK
Maybe. Or maybe naïve. Or maybe ill-informed. Or maybe just hideously hyper-partisan. But whatever the case, he's wrong.
Posted by: Spanky on June 15, 2009 at 9:47 AM | PERMALINK
The still-weak economy no longer appears to be standing on the edge of a cliff. A few too many on the right interpret this evidence of the need to reverse course on the recovery efforts.
That statement sums up the child-like reasoning of the Republican party only too well.
Posted by: about time on June 15, 2009 at 9:50 AM | PERMALINK
For the newbies:
"Myke K"=parody troll
"Mike K"=typical wingnut troll
Posted by: Allan Snyder on June 15, 2009 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK
Myke K. sounds exactly like Stephen Colbert, so I sense it's sarcasm.
There wouldn't be a good reason to use the antibiotics metaphor if it weren't. (Is that House M.D.-logic?)
Posted by: Vokoban on June 15, 2009 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK
For the newbies:
"Myke K"=parody troll
"Mike K"=typical wingnut troll
And this has been explained to dim bulb and total non-newbie Gandalf approximately 1,000 times.
Posted by: shaking my head on June 15, 2009 at 10:03 AM | PERMALINK
I'm guessing these are the same republicans who were telling us 'the fundamentals of the economy are strong' last fall just before the toilet flushed.
Posted by: beep52 on June 15, 2009 at 10:05 AM | PERMALINK
FWIW, Myke K's antibiotics analogy is spot on. Either course, early termination of economic stimulus or antibiotics, can have equally devestating effects.
Oh, and I echo Vokoban's high praise of Myke's parody.
Posted by: Jim H on June 15, 2009 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
Mike K is clearly a spoof (the kind the populate many left-leaning political blogs). It is embarrassing the number of posters that are taking him seriously.
Posted by: Walker on June 15, 2009 at 10:16 AM | PERMALINK
This is all clearly a very sophisticated political experiment to devise a new kind of litmus test - if Republicans propose it, it can be reasonably assumed it's wrong.
I'd like to thank them for the repeated reinforcement of this view; can't be much longer before it's enshrined. Limbaugh's Law, perhaps.
Posted by: ally on June 15, 2009 at 10:39 AM | PERMALINK
Oh shaking your weeniehead- how about this go fornicate yourself.
Posted by: Gandalf on June 15, 2009 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK
This reminds me of the right's response to evidence of cleaner air and water resulting from the Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act: "Time to roll back the CWA and CAA!"
Posted by: garble on June 15, 2009 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK
Myke K's posts are parody, but I would hardly call him a troll. Think of him as entertainment.
His comment about a stopping antibiotics if he starts to feel better after a couple of days is classic. It is very appropriate. Folks, read Myke K with an open mind. He is a jewel.
Posted by: Ron Byers on June 15, 2009 at 11:02 AM | PERMALINK
" a patient stopping. . ." not "a stopping..."
Posted by: Ron Byers on June 15, 2009 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK
For the newbies:
"Myke K"=parody troll
"Mike K"=typical wingnut troll
That's what people used to say about Matthew R. Marler vs. Matthew R. Quarreller, too, before the mods outed the latter as an alias used by the former.
Posted by: cmdicely on June 15, 2009 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK
"Oh shaking your weeniehead- how about this go fornicate yourself."
Stay classy, Gandalf.
Posted by: msmolly on June 15, 2009 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
That's what people used to say about Matthew R. Marler vs. Matthew R. Quarreller, too, before the mods outed the latter as an alias used by the former.
Nope. MRM only began handlejacking MRQ because MRM was embarrassed at being parodied and was attempting to defang his mocker. Looks like he was at least partly successful.
Posted by: on June 15, 2009 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK
This is significant to the topic:
market_reorganization
Obama to present sweeping market overhaul
Geithner says the proposal will give the financial system 'clear accountability and responsibility.'
By Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 15, 2009: 11:41 AM ET
Posted by: Neil B ◙ on June 15, 2009 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
The Elite far right will do anything to take back power and renew their world wide aggression and dirty financial practices that gave us DEPRESSION 2008 and KILLED MANY in the expensive war for oil rights. ..including continue to make the USA 2nd class AND 2 class.
World aggression power greed.. they are jonesing for a fix.
Think about it we are finally barely on the road to recovery and some are shouting let's change course..
Sounds like some need a 12 step workshop for addiction to power and greed!
Posted by: DC MATTHEWS on June 18, 2009 at 6:29 PM | PERMALINK