June 15, 2009
IS 'CONSERVATISM' IN ASCENDANCE?.... Gallup has a new poll pointing to an uptick in the number of Americans who describe themselves as "conservative."
Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004. The 21% calling themselves liberal is in line with findings throughout this decade, but is up from the 1990s.
Looking over the yearly totals, the lines are pretty stable, though the number of self-identified conservatives has gone up a bit over the last 17 years, from 36% to 40%. Liberal numbers, while trailing by considerable margins, have also crept upwards, from 17% to 21%. And while moderates were out in front for most of the past couple of decades, Gallup shows their numbers slipping from 43% to 35% since 1992.
The results are clearly heartening to the right, as evidenced by the predictable refrain from Peter Wehner: the poll "demonstrates ... that America remains a center-right nation."
Well, that's one way to look at it. But the right shouldn't get too excited about the advantage reported today.
The results have been pretty steady for a couple of decades now. Conservatives now outnumber moderates and liberals, but we're still dealing with modest fluctuations. For that matter, as Ed Kilgore explains, the traditional model of throwing everyone into one of these three categories doesn't reflect a diverse ideological landscape.
There's also the practical effect to consider. Self-described liberals have trailed badly for a very long time, but it hasn't translated into Republican victories at the ballot box. Democrats, for example, still easily outnumber Republicans, despite the ideological breakdown.
What's more, it's one thing for Americans to describe themselves as "conservative" in a general sense, but it's more important to consider these same Americans' attitudes on more specific matters. Right now, for example, the number of conservatives is nearly double the number of liberals. But that doesn't change the fact that most Americans support universal health care, disagree with Republican foreign policy, believe global warming is real and in need of a response, don't want to see Roe v. Wade overturned, etc.
And perhaps of most interest to those watching for demographic trends, among Americans under the age of 30, moderates are ahead with 39%, followed by liberals with 31% , and conservatives with 30%. (Conservatives lead overall thanks to a three-to-one advantage among Americans aged 65 and older.)
—Steve Benen 3:15 PM
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Since liberals and/or dems haven't spent the past few decades trying to make "conservative" a dirty word it's no surprise that a lot of people might call themselves conservative. But what does that mean, exactly? Positions on issues matters a whole lot more than what label people might use to correctly or incorrectly identify themselves.
Posted by: zoe kentucky on June 15, 2009 at 3:27 PM | PERMALINK
Very good point Zoe. I would also point out that I could give two shits about how people describe themselves. The most important question is: how many of these "conservatives" actually even vote ?
Posted by: OhNoNotAgain on June 15, 2009 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK
As zoe notes, show us positions on issues. (Anecdotal evidence alert) I personally know at least 10 self-described "conservatives" whose views on issues from the environment and health care to reproductive choice and taxation exactly mirror mine.
Posted by: shortstop on June 15, 2009 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK
Then again, as we saw a week or so ago, both Colin Powell and Rush Limbaugh identify themselves as "conservative".
Posted by: Capt Kirk on June 15, 2009 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK
Key stat here: cons lead 3-1 in the 65 + group. I expect their numbers to dwindle at about the same rate that these people die off.
Posted by: citizen_pain on June 15, 2009 at 3:32 PM | PERMALINK
There's also the problem of geography. A liberal in a southern state such as AL likely looks very different from a liberal in a state like MA. As do self-identified conservatives -- a VT conservative likely shares less in common with a conservative from Texas. A lot of self-identification comes from how you relate yourself to those around you, not by how you actually vote.
Posted by: Eagle on June 15, 2009 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK
Hah! An easy one, as Zoe points out. Being a "liberal" gets you labeled as a lazy hippie crackpot wimpy do-gooder. So you call yourself a conservative if, you know, you don't smoke pot in public or howl to uncage the zoo animals, if you swear and tell ethnic jokes, and your biggest worry is balancing your check book every month.
The number of people who are really conservative, as conservatives understand it, is pretty low. How much of the population actually wants to outlaw "the Pill", legalize guns in bars and schools, think all foreigners are our enemies, and think women should be forced to give birth even if the process is going to kill them?
Posted by: Midland on June 15, 2009 at 3:37 PM | PERMALINK
I wonder how much of this "conservatism" has to do with an uppity black president?
Posted by: The Galloping Trollop on June 15, 2009 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK
Yes, actions do speak far louder - Strange after all of the hoopla beginning very late one Tuesday evening, last November, that this "Liberal" and "Far Left" takeover, as described by those on the right, has led to many questioning if the Democratic Senate can even muster 50 votes to pass needed health care changes. In actions alone, the list for Liberal Democratic Senators is extremely short.
Posted by: berttheclock on June 15, 2009 at 3:53 PM | PERMALINK
I'm more inclined to believe this poll simply indicates that a large chunk of the American public has no idea what the words 'conservative' or 'liberal' actually mean.
Posted by: doubtful on June 15, 2009 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK
I know many people who describe themselves as conservatives when they are simply fiscal conservatives and relatively liberal on social issues. That divide is not uncommon.
Posted by: jen f on June 15, 2009 at 4:02 PM | PERMALINK
If both liberal and conservative numbers increased by 4% over the same period how do they say there's been any change in their fortunes?
It looks more like 8% of the people have become more polarized.
And if that's accurate and 61% of the people have nothing in common, no idea of the past, no idea of the future, no idea of the present,
why try to force them together?
Posted by: alan on June 15, 2009 at 4:07 PM | PERMALINK
Yes I am conservative (a person who is conservative in principles, actions, habits, etc.) AND an unrepentant Democrat. I do not find this strange. I also believe in God and Darwin. Quit trying to box us in or treat us like freaks. Whoever said 'fiscally conservative and socially liberal' hit it on the head. I believe a LOT of people describe themselves that way.
Posted by: SYSPROG on June 15, 2009 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK
Let's put this 'center-right nation' business to rest, already. It's entirely absurd.
It's impossible for any country, as a whole, to be anything other than centrist. After all, centrist is best defined as holding beliefs in the center of a country's political spectrum. To say that the US is a center-right country would mean that it was to its own right; an absurd concept.
Now, if you want to compare the US to Europe, there's no contest. Even a raging Tory in the UK would be pilloried as a pinko commie fellow traveler in the US (hyperbole... work w/me). But, by the same token, even a US conservative is wildly to the left of our best buddies in Wahabbist Saudi Arabia.
-Z
Posted by: Zorro on June 15, 2009 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK
This whole poll is almost irrelevant as represented by election results: all these terms have had major changes in definition over the past century and are so flung about that any real consistancy in definition is impossible -- under/over defined words as Korzybski would say.
Better to define a set of "conservative" policies and "liberal" policies and go from there.
Posted by: Kurt on June 15, 2009 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK
i think there's a problem here with the conclusions drawn.
people were asked to identify as conservative, moderate or liberal, not republican/democrat, left or right.
it cannot be concluded that everyone answering "conservative" means to indicate that they are a republican. there are conservative democrats as well, just as there are liberal and moderate republicans.
so, imho, this poll does not suggest that republican identification or conservative republican identification is on the rise. all it shows is that people are feeling conservative in an uncertain world.
Posted by: karen marie on June 15, 2009 at 4:25 PM | PERMALINK
Whenever I get into a discussion about conservatism, self-described conservatives can never give a good answer to one simple question: What *is* conservatism?
They'll give a lot of vague answers about freedom, responsibility, and limited government. But then they always get lost when I point out that I, by any definition a liberal, completely agree with about 99% of what they say.
I think doubtful @ 3:54 is absolutely correct. The vast majority of Americans have no meaningful idea of what liberal or conservative really mean.
Posted by: Shade Tail on June 15, 2009 at 4:27 PM | PERMALINK
Conservatives at 40% may outnumber liberals OR moderates but they do not outnumber liberals AND moderates (together). That is a crucial point. Independents (which aren't the same as moderates) vote more with liberals, which is how the Dems have been winning.
Although I agree probably 50-60% of the people don't really know what liberal and conservative mean.
Posted by: Mimikatz on June 15, 2009 at 4:27 PM | PERMALINK
Those results contradict IIRC a poll and chart you (?) and others had up several weeks ago. I thought it showed fewer conservatives than liberals, but maybe it was about Democrat v. Republican? Anyway, some of these pollsters have an agenda.
Posted by: Neil B on June 15, 2009 at 4:33 PM | PERMALINK
"even a US conservative is wildly to the left of our best buddies in Wahabbist Saudi Arabia."
I'm not so convinced of that when I read the latest babblings from the spittle-flecked lips of Glenn Beck and Michael Savage.
Posted by: bluestatedon on June 15, 2009 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK
Can't believe the assumption they jump to because during the campaign voters were polled on all the major issues and it was determined then that most of America was liberal as far as how they voted on the issues...but the right has so demonized the word that calling oneself liberal suddenly became demeaning.
Rather than "liberal" the question should have asked if voters referred to themselves as "progressives" or "neocons". Guess who would have dominated the answer then? It's a slanted survey by today's standards.
Posted by: bjobotts on June 15, 2009 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK
The REAL question is whether the GOP is conservative or right-wing radical. I would argue the latter.
Posted by: bdop4 on June 15, 2009 at 5:14 PM | PERMALINK
I put this in the same category as the Gallop poll that shoes the majority of Americans are "pro-life" -- AND believe that abortions should be legal.
Clearly, the labels don't have the same meaning to the partisans and the general public.
Posted by: Jon on June 15, 2009 at 5:14 PM | PERMALINK
Many factors to consider, including the difference between how you see yourself and how others see you. Back in (commie) Poland, I thought of myself as "pragmatic, bordering on conservative". But the party hacks said I was "conservative, bordering on reactionary".
Once I arrived in US and took the general "temperature" of the state of politics, I began to think of myself as "moderate, bordering on liberal". However... If you were to ask my husband, he'd probably tell you I was "a flaming commie", while *he* is a "moderate Democrat".
Posted by: exlibra on June 15, 2009 at 5:56 PM | PERMALINK
This continued claim by the right wing that America is a "center-right" nation is a huge laugh. The right wing has been purging centrists from the GOP for years, and those who haven't been forced out have left voluntarily. By contrast, the Democratic party has embraced centrists, to the point where they now outnumber liberals in the party. Given that it's the Democrats who are in power, and the centrists caucus with them, not the GOP, this country should more properly be called center-left.
Posted by: a giant slor on June 15, 2009 at 6:10 PM | PERMALINK
Maybe the poll/focus group should ask conservatives what it means to be "conservative"? And liberals what it means to be "liberal"?
Might be enlightening.
Posted by: Carl Nyberg on June 15, 2009 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK
You bet I'm conservative!
Yep, that's the ticket!
Posted by: Joey Giraud on June 15, 2009 at 7:43 PM | PERMALINK
Fiscal conservatism needs must follow profligacy as the night the day.
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