Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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June 19, 2009
By: Hilzoy

Coming To You Live From An Alternate Reality ...

Today the Washington Post, fresh from canning one of its best writers, lets Charles Krauthammer send us a dispatch from the alternate reality in which he lives. In that reality, apparently, Iranian demonstrators "await just a word that America is on their side." Joe Klein, just back from the real Tehran, asks:

"They do? Which ones? Name one. And if that word came, what then? Would it be the same as the "word" Dwight Eisenhower sent, and later regretted, supporting the Hungarian protesters in 1956 when he had no intention of supporting them militarily? Or the "word" that George H.W. Bush sent the Iraqi Shi'ites after the first Gulf War, who then rebelled against Saddam Hussein and were slaughtered?"

Krauthammer then lets us know what's at stake in the reality he inhabits:

"This revolution will end either as a Tiananmen (a hot Tiananmen with massive and bloody repression or a cold Tiananmen with a finer mix of brutality and co-optation) or as a true revolution that brings down the Islamic Republic.

The latter is improbable but, for the first time in 30 years, not impossible. Imagine the repercussions. It would mark a decisive blow to Islamist radicalism, of which Iran today is not just standard-bearer and model, but financier and arms supplier. It would do to Islamism what the collapse of the Soviet Union did to communism -- leave it forever spent and discredited.

In the region, it would launch a second Arab spring. The first in 2005 -- the expulsion of Syria from Lebanon, the first elections in Iraq and early liberalization in the Gulf states and Egypt -- was aborted by a fierce counterattack from the forces of repression and reaction, led and funded by Iran.

Now, with Hezbollah having lost elections in Lebanon and with Iraq establishing the institutions of a young democracy, the fall of the Islamist dictatorship in Iran would have an electric and contagious effect. The exception -- Iraq and Lebanon -- becomes the rule. Democracy becomes the wave. Syria becomes isolated; Hezbollah and Hamas, patronless. The entire trajectory of the region is reversed."

Is there any evidence -- any at all -- that this is true? Not from where I sit. As best I can tell, there is no particular reason to think that Mousavi will bring any kind of major foreign policy shift:

"Mr. Moussavi began his political career as a hard-liner and a favorite of the revolution's architect, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Although he has long had an adversarial relationship with Iran's current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his insider status makes him loath to mount a real challenge to the core institutions of the Islamic republic. He was an early supporter of Iran's nuclear program, and as prime minister in the 1980s he approved Iran’s purchase of centrifuges on the nuclear black market, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency."

Back in the day, he supported taking hostages in the US embassy and funding for Hezbollah. I suspect that he will not have Ahmedinejad's knack for making crazy and offensive statements, and with any luck he won't deny the Holocaust, but I do not expect much in the way of major foreign policy changes if he prevails -- all the more so since he will, I assume, have to try to reconcile his country, and might bend over backwards not to provide ammunition to his enemies.

The best way I can see to make sense of Krauthammer's ravings is to suppose that America and freedom have merged in his mind, so that when a people demonstrates for freedom, we can infer that they are pro-American. But this is not just false; it's crazy.

I hope Mousavi and his supporters prevail. But that's not because I think that he will make everything peachy in Iran; it's because I think that the Iranian people deserve to have a voice in their government. I do not think that a Mousavi government would stop funding Hezbollah or suspend its nuclear program. I do think that if he and his supporters prevail, Iranian society will become more open, and its government less authoritarian. This will probably make a real difference in its foreign policy in the long run, though I think it would be foolish to try to predict what difference it will make.

You'd think that after getting Iraq so badly wrong, Krauthammer might decide to devote himself to writing op-eds on patent law or food safety or -- well, anything other than how some development in the Middle East would lead to democracy busting out all over. You might think that if he did go on writing about foreign policy, he might at least try to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again. And you might think that if the Washington Post has to go around firing people, Charles "I Believe Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast -- Just Wait Til You See How Many I Can Manage By The Time I Finish My Column!" Krauthammer might be first in line.

Apparently, you'd be wrong.

Hilzoy 7:14 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (43)

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Comments

Krauthammer- I liked him a lot better when he was the host of Tales From The Crypt. Seriously when I see that guy on television he looks embalmed. That anyone would give such an brain addled individual a platform is beyond belief. But I guess that has always been their deal creating realities.

Posted by: John R on June 19, 2009 at 7:29 PM | PERMALINK

What would Krauthammer and all these other folks calling for the American govt (or Obama himself) to interfere in the domestic politics of a sovereign nation (not to mention a sovereign nation many of them have been vilifying for decades) say if other countries felt they should interfere with America's domestic politics?

Posted by: zhak on June 19, 2009 at 7:41 PM | PERMALINK

These guys are gamblers. They believe that their "luck" will change based upon a single positive event. Therefore they keep trying to manufacture a positive event.

It is an addiction.

Posted by: tomj on June 19, 2009 at 7:42 PM | PERMALINK

krauthammer needs to stop prescribing himself those meds -- or at least change the dosage -- something's, uh, not working there, chuckie...

Posted by: neill on June 19, 2009 at 7:47 PM | PERMALINK

There was no reason to expect Gorbachev to bring a foreign policy change for the Soviet Union; until he did.

Posted by: Mike K on June 19, 2009 at 7:55 PM | PERMALINK

It's a set-up.

If Mousavi wins, Krauthammer writes "Hurray, pre-emtive war and neo-con ideas win!"

If Mousavi wins and tensions with Israel reduce, Karuthammer writes the same sentence.

If Mousavi wins and still goes ahead with the nuclear program, Krauthammer writes, "Boo! Can't trust those Mohammedians. Bombs Away!"

If Ahmedinejad and Khamenei win, Krauthammer writes: "Boo! Bombing begins in 10 minutes."

It's always "Heads I win, Tails you lose with neo-cons."

Posted by: Shine on June 19, 2009 at 7:59 PM | PERMALINK

"Second Arab spring"??? Since when, Krauthammer, are Persians Arab? Real pro there, Christ.

Posted by: Bosch's Poodle on June 19, 2009 at 8:11 PM | PERMALINK

Drat. Mr or Ms Poodle beat me to it. Iranians are not Arabs. Moreover, they're Shia Muslims and thus are regarded with suspicion by the largely Sunni Muslims who populate Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, etc., etc. The likelihood of Iranian behavior being regarded by other Middle Easterners as exemplary is slim.

Posted by: Linkmeister on June 19, 2009 at 8:18 PM | PERMALINK

The neo-cons want us to attck Iran. If nuclear weapon programs won't justify it, perhaps suppressing the current demonstrations will. Whatever it takes. War, war, war.

Posted by: steve on June 19, 2009 at 8:20 PM | PERMALINK

Does the DEA know about whatever Krauthammer is taking? It seems unlikely that such powerful hallucinogens would be legal.

Posted by: biggerbox on June 19, 2009 at 8:21 PM | PERMALINK

Krauthammer columns are best left unread

Posted by: mudwall jackson on June 19, 2009 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK

His ideas are the same as his face: fossilized.

Neocons really do think they know better when the reality is very very different.

Posted by: mlm on June 19, 2009 at 8:32 PM | PERMALINK

Krauthammer - what an unfortunate, yet fitting name - for a cartoon character with his worldview.

Posted by: Danp on June 19, 2009 at 8:33 PM | PERMALINK

Just one correction on some spin embedded in this: Hezbollah didn't lose the Lebanese election. That party got exactly the number of seats it was expected to win. Hezbollah's Christian allies did lose seats, probably partially as a repudiation of their alliance -- but none of it really changed the balance of power.

And yes, Krauthammer is a tendentious doofus, better left unread, along with the rest of dying WaPo.

Posted by: janinsanfran on June 19, 2009 at 8:36 PM | PERMALINK

the comments in the thread to wolfie's piece in the post is hilarious. lots of rotten fruit being thrown both at wolfie and the post.

Posted by: karen marie on June 19, 2009 at 8:36 PM | PERMALINK

Way to call a turd a turd, Hilzoy. Nice dissection of Krauthammer's feeble imaginings. More posts such as this one, please.

Posted by: Conrads Ghost on June 19, 2009 at 8:43 PM | PERMALINK

These guys are gamblers. They believe that their "luck" will change based upon a single positive event. Therefore they keep trying to manufacture a positive event.

Sounds like the banksters. "Just give us a little more TARP money to play the slots -- we know we'll hit the jackpot this time!"

Posted by: Mnemosyne on June 19, 2009 at 8:55 PM | PERMALINK

You'd think that after getting Iraq so badly wrong, Krauthammer might decide to devote himself to writing op-eds on patent law or food safety...

What evidence do you have that he sees that he got Iraq so badly wrong?

lets Charles Krauthammer send us a dispatch from the alternate reality in which he lives. In that reality, apparently, Iranian demonstrators "await just a word that America is on their side."

You made my point yourself. In his reality he's been right about everything and "we" have been and still are wrong about everything. Simply because it's not possible for him to be wrong, since his ideas are right and ours are whacky. End of story.

Why do we keep expecting it to be any way other than this? We are dealing with the insane and they only talk to people who are equally insane. They validate each other's insane reality. And so it is.

Posted by: stvwlf on June 19, 2009 at 9:15 PM | PERMALINK

Someone should tel Krauthammer that Iranians are not Arabs

Posted by: Darwin on June 19, 2009 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK

Krauthammer has got to be the worst poker player ever. All he ever does is up the ante. This is a time when you gotta hold 'em. For all we know, Mousavi could be worse than Amadickinajar. (Jon Stewart may have coined that last night. If not, then I want it.)

Posted by: ComradeAnon on June 19, 2009 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK

Ten years ago it was possible take the WaPo stable of pundits seriously. Will, Samuelson, Broder, even Krauthammer. OK, maybe not Krauthammer..

But now? These folks served as cheerleader for the Great Iraq Fiasco and stood by as the radical right led the country into the Great Recession.

What this country needs more than anything is new, competent, opinion leaders. The WaPo STILL publishes this group of losers? Help me.


Posted by: spensercat on June 19, 2009 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

Now, with Hezbollah having lost elections in Lebanon and with Iraq establishing the institutions of a young democracy, the fall of the Islamist dictatorship in Iran would have an electric and contagious effect. The exception -- Iraq and Lebanon -- becomes the rule. Democracy becomes the wave. Syria becomes isolated; Hezbollah and Hamas, patronless. The entire trajectory of the region is reversed."

Krauthammer is so full of shit, it's no wonder his eyes are brown.

Hezbollah did not "lose" the election in Lebanon, unless getting 57% of the popular vote doesn't matter (1% more than last time BTW). They got ONE LESS SEAT THAN THEY HAD only because of the "weighting" of votes for guaranteed seats.

Whatever "young democracy" exists in Iraq, only Krauthammer and his fellow cabal-members in the NeoCon Kabbalah would be able to recognize.

The Washington Pest - not the paper it was 36 years ago. Were Fred Hiatt and his crew of drooling illiterates - whose existence is an insult to journalism - to have been running the paper in 1974, Nixon would be President In Perpetuity.

Posted by: TCinLA on June 19, 2009 at 9:38 PM | PERMALINK

The Washington Post has really become THE newspaper for the so-called "neocons".

Certainly more so than any other major "mainstream" newspaper.

And even more so than some of the openly partisan Republican so-called "conservative" media.

In the end the "neo-cons" simply speak for the military-industrial-petroleum complex.

Their agenda is really nothing more or less than to spend massive amounts of taxpayer money on the military armaments corporations, and a vastly expanded US military, which will then be deployed as the private mercenary army of the giant oil corporations to secure control of the world's last, biggest, best reserves of high-quality, cheaply extractable oil.

Which means the Middle East (a.k.a. "The Prize", in Dick Cheney's words).

This is what they call "spreading democracy", which is a "neocon" phrase meaning "to enrich the military-industrial complex and the giant oil corporations".

And the Washington Post has chosen to be their newspaper.

It's no coincidence that the Post has simultaneously been running these "neocon" columns at the same time they are running op-ed columns full of global warming denialist pseudoscience and dishonest attacks on the renewable energy industry.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on June 19, 2009 at 9:45 PM | PERMALINK

Let's not forget the word Eisenhower sent the Iranians in 1953, when he toppled their democratically elected government and installed the Shah. The same Shah against whose abuses helped give rise to the ascension of Khomeini 25 or so years later.

Posted by: Roddy McCorley on June 19, 2009 at 9:49 PM | PERMALINK

A wondrous scenario:

Kidnap Krauthammer. Blindfold him and put him in a cab. Drive the cab into the belly of a transport plane, fly him to Iran, and then drive the cab right up to the front door of the Iranian Ministry of Justice. Take the blindfold off and kick Krauthammer out onto the sidewalk, wrapped in some shiny wrapping paper (Halloween devils are nice) with a sign pinned to his back, reading "Death to Ahmadi."

Posted by: S. Waybright on June 19, 2009 at 9:52 PM | PERMALINK

Darwin,

"Someone should tel Krauthammer that Iranians are not Arabs"

Good luck.

The American RightWing STILL has yet to grasp that less than 25% of Muslims are Arab.

Posted by: Joe Friday on June 19, 2009 at 10:00 PM | PERMALINK

All Mousavi can do with foreign policy is not deny the holocaust and not be as much a barking mad dolt as Ahme-whatshisname. The President of Iran is NOT in control of the military - the Ayatollah is. The President is not in charge of foreign affairs - the Ayatollah is.

The Iranian President is in charge of the domestic economy, ministries, and the like as per the overall policies of the Ayatollah. The Iranian President is the face of Iran in foreign visits.

A new, better Iranian President can help change the tone but not the overall direction of Iran.

Posted by: Praedor Atrebates on June 19, 2009 at 10:08 PM | PERMALINK

@steve:
The neo-cons want us to attck Iran. If nuclear weapon programs won't justify it, perhaps suppressing the current demonstrations will. Whatever it takes. War, war, war.

And what ELSE is there to jump-start a false new economy? The two we have going (and failing) aren't doing the trick. We need a newer, bigger war to get the engines of the economy going!

Posted by: Praedor Atrebates on June 19, 2009 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

I hope the goddamned Washington Post goes out of business. Keeping the drooler Krauthammer (not to mention Will and Broder, speaking of droolers) around while getting rid of Froomkin is a joke.

And what is the Post's agenda? Well, which country in the Mideast do Krauthammer and Wolfowitz (who wrote a companion piece today) favor over all others, unfortunately including the U.S.?

Posted by: Nixon Did It on June 19, 2009 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

Krauthammer is one Krazy Kook, isn't he.

Posted by: The Oracle on June 19, 2009 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

Isn't it clear that ...

When the gov't uses violence against peaceful people we will stand (at least in spirit) with the Peaceful people.

When the people riot and do violence we would not oppose the gov't using force to bring about Domestic Tranquility.

When the people request or demand a recount and to have their challenges to the election investigated we stand with them and Democracy.

We stand (and will help others who will stand with us) for Peace, Prosperity, Freedom, Democracy and all the other ideals America has always stood for (even when we had trouble living up to it).

The extent to which we can act on our support may vary according to circumstances.

Posted by: MarkH on June 20, 2009 at 12:36 AM | PERMALINK

I've heard a legend that Krauthammer was once respected. I find it hard to credit.

Posted by: Jon on June 20, 2009 at 1:51 AM | PERMALINK

Before it's over, these idiot neocons will get us all killed.

Posted by: Comrade Stuck on June 20, 2009 at 2:10 AM | PERMALINK

Hey, remember how after the US lost the Vietnam War, communism somehow failed to spread to neighboring countries like Thailand, Indonesia, or India? That's because the domino theory doesn't work, which is why pretty much everyone with a reasonable grasp on reality stopped advocating it back in the 80s. It didn't work against us, and it's not going to suddenly turn around and work for us.

One big reason the domino theory failed is it assumed communist nations all share the same hivemind, the same goals, and the same greater identity. If this had been true, though, Vietnam wouldn't have fought a war against communist Cambodia and communist China with the aid of the USSR. To believe Iran is going to trigger a wave of democracy through the entire Middle East, you'd need to think that Iran is Arab and not mostly Persian, not to mention about a dozen other things a 12-year-old with an atlas could easily disprove.

In the region, it would launch a second Arab spring. The first in 2005 -- the expulsion of Syria from Lebanon, the first elections in Iraq and early liberalization in the Gulf states and Egypt...

Ah, there you go. By the way, Egypt isn't Arab either. They're Egyptians.

Posted by: Master Mahan on June 20, 2009 at 2:11 AM | PERMALINK

When I was called all kinds of names and unpatriotic and anti-American because I didn't support or believe in the Iraq war, after all the tacky remarks, I always asked: "If you believe in this war so much, when are you enlisting?" I got more excuses than you'll ever hear from students that didn't do their homework. Republicans and their supporters want war, war, war, but they all want someone else's children to fight it.

Posted by: Schtick on June 20, 2009 at 3:19 AM | PERMALINK

It's fairly naive to think that if the regime goes the only thing that will change will be that now Mousavi will be president.

When change comes like it may in Iran a lot will change in a fairly short period of time.

Posted by: TW Andrews on June 20, 2009 at 6:55 AM | PERMALINK

The real irony is that Krauthammer was a psychiatrist before he became a political commentator, which supports the old canard that the most insane people of all are couch doctors.

Dr. Strangelove = Dr. Krauthammer

Posted by: bluestatedon on June 20, 2009 at 7:04 AM | PERMALINK

Richard Armitage: "...Well, I, I think, in the first place, either of those two gentlemen having been elected would not grandly affect the United States. Mr. [garbled] Mousavi seems to be pretty benign, nice guy, but here's a fellow who in his earlier years, very involved in not only the, the revolution in Iran, but the, uh, taking over of our embassy, and very involved in getting birth, giving birth to Hezbollah. So, the relative benign nature of Mousavi vice, versus Ahmadinejad is, is something that I really question. I think they, it, it's just a matter of degrees. Second, I , I don't think there will be any dramatic changes in U.S. Iran relationships. We will, as Mr. Obama said, reach out the hand of friendship. That's a good thing. They'll have to make a decision whether to take it or not. I'm not totally hopeless that we can dissuade them from their program. Make sure that they do have nuclear power, but that they don't, uh, misdirect it toward nuclear weapons. And I think this is gonna be something that proceeds almost a snail's pace, no matter who is elected..."

http://blog.showmeprogress.com/diary/3043/richard-armitage-at-missouri-boys-state-q-and-a-part-1

Posted by: paradocs on June 20, 2009 at 7:36 AM | PERMALINK

I also noticed that the Post had a column by Paul Wolfowitz, another savant who led us down a very slippery slope. I realize that we live in a society that embraces a free exchange of ideas. Why can't we all - including the MSM - ignore these discredited hacks and let them live out their lives in the anonymity they so richly deserve?

Posted by: David on June 20, 2009 at 7:43 AM | PERMALINK

Perhaps Mr. Krauthammer would like us to invade. I am sure that the Iranians would welcome us with flowers.

Posted by: Marc on June 20, 2009 at 7:45 AM | PERMALINK

And to think Krautguy once listened to the inner feelings of people lying on his couch. How well are they, now?

All could be ever so peaceful if the council of imans simply signed all oil and natural gas rights over to Cheney and Halliburton. In the movie "W", the scariest part was looking at Cheney's map showing American Flags on Iranian soil.

Posted by: berttheclock on June 20, 2009 at 8:38 AM | PERMALINK

The USA also gave it's word (and promise of CIA support) to the Indonesian outer islands' revolt in the late 1950s, then sat back and did nothing and watched them get betaen by the Indonesian government.

Posted by: QrazyQat on June 20, 2009 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

Suppose, just for a second, that America did give the Iranian protesters "the word", and somehow democracy did "bust out all over". Iran became indistinguishable from Twenty-Nine Palms, except there were more Persians and fewer McDonalds.

Who would be the enemy then?

The Right has to have a constant looming threat to life, liberty and The American Way in order to market its product, which is fear and hatred, and which loosens pursestrings when liberally applied. If Americans were not always afraid of some bogeyman, they might focus on things like domestic reform, quality of life and making America competitive in fields other than invasion.

Republicans are that kid on the playground who always said, "Whoa! are you gonna let him talk to you like that?", always trying to get a fight going. And Iran has been distilled into the bully everyone is supposed to fear.

Posted by: Mark on June 20, 2009 at 5:25 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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