Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

June 23, 2009

HOW NOT TO DISCREDIT A POLL.... The latest New York Times poll found that 72% of Americans support a public health option as part of the larger reform effort. John Hinderaker at Power Line, a prominent conservative blog, pushed back against the results yesterday, arguing that the poll's sample is skewed in Democrats' favor.

Specifically, Hinderaker found that when respondents were asked which candidate they supported in the 2008 presidential election, 48% said Obama and 25% said McCain. Since Obama actually won 53% of the vote, and McCain won 46%, the poll, Hinderaker concludes, "obviously skews left."

As it turns out, though, it's not "obvious" at all. In fact, the Power Line criticism doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Eric Kleefeld noted:

A big problem occurred to me, though, one known to anyone who's read about polling for a long time: The who-you-voted-for question is good for a lot of things -- except for finding out how people actually voted. It's really an indicator of people's willingness to say they voted for the incumbent (regardless of whether they're telling the truth) or to say they voted for the challenger. All this poll really tells us is that some people are eager to say they voted for Obama, and others won't readily admit they voted for McCain.

Exactly. In fact, Slate's Christopher Beam did a good piece on this just a few days ago, explaining in some detail that Americans routinely take some liberties when asked by pollsters who they voted for, and the phenomenon has existed for decades.

What's more, not only did Hinderaker's efforts to cast doubt on the NYT poll come up short, but he'll also have to work harder to get the results he'd like to see. For one thing, even within the NYT poll, 50% of Republicans support a public option. Even if Power Line is convinced there weren't enough McCain voters among the respondents, it doesn't explain the popularity of the public plan. For another, the NYT poll isn't the only one -- an NBC/WSJ poll that showed 76% of Americans believing that it's important to "give people a choice of both a public plan administered by the federal government and a private plan for their health insurance," and a D.C. policy think tank conducted a poll, financed in part by previous opponents of health care reform, which found 83% of Americans favor a public plan.

Nevertheless, arguments like Hinderaker's can have an impact, even if they're easily-discredited. Yesterday, Sen. John Cornyn (R) of Texas cited the bogus Power Line criticism in two national television appearances: "'With all due respect to the New York Times and CBS, this polling sample was skewed,' he told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. Similarly, on Fox News Cornyn said, 'I think there's been some particularly good blog coverage like Powerline blog talking how that sample was so skewed as to be meaningless.'"

If recent history is any guide, news outlets will start referring to recent polls on the public option as "controversial" and "possibly skewed," even though reality shows otherwise.

Steve Benen 10:00 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (20)
 
Comments

I seem to recall as a teen who was very interested in politics and history in the mid-seventies reading in the paper of a poll where most people claimed to have voted for McGovern over Nixon.

Posted by: Napoleon on June 23, 2009 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK

You miss the point, Steve:

Because it is false, the GOP spin that the poll is skewed is counterproductive. Because the poll is valid, a GOP strategy based on this spin means that they are pandering to a political opportunity THAT DOES NOT EXIST.

When people have a solid opinion, such as supporting a public plan for health care, they're not generally moved very easily by media reports that what they want is "controversial". They've already factored that in, recognizing that there is another side when they choose which side to take. People generally like their health care (if they have it), dislike the cost, and have concluded that a greater government role in insurance, a larger pool (with more preventive and less emergency care) will bring down the cost.

The real point here is that the GOP has decided to tell that majority that they are wrong -- that is, Republicans have determined to take the LOSING side.


Posted by: theAmericanist on June 23, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK

I got so annoyed with John Hinderaker's claims and his vicious responses to my comments that I figured he was using crack..

He literally forced me to seek out his work email addy to send him my thoughts....

JHinderaker@faegre.com

Posted by: quotidian one on June 23, 2009 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK

It's hard to know how many people support a general concept like "health care reform" anyway, when variations in versions and expectations swing results by many points. If at least "around half" the population wants reform, it's certainly worth looking into for that reason alone.

I am concerned about polls showing weakening general support for Obama and Democrats.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues
Obama's positives and negatives are now claimed equal, and Republicans gained on Democrats on many issues. I think a big cause is the fraudulent commentary by hacks like WSJ and Krauthammer - who provide cover for those wanting "respectable" opinionists as substitute for Rush and Beck (who BTW provide a circus distraction while Bank, WS, mining etc. lobbyists quietly gut reforms.) The MSM are enablers with their crappy reporting and weakness (see re Diane Sawyer etc.) We need to fight back

Posted by: NeilB on June 23, 2009 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

NBC is just gonna sit there and let their polls be labeled as skewed or bogus? I know they swallow a lot of Repub crap, but if they let this go then they're letting all of their polling be called into question.

Posted by: Allan Snyder on June 23, 2009 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

of course the media will attempt to present biased descriptors agst polls and other data showing the popularity of progressive ideas... they always have and always will.

the fact that traitor cornyn starts the ball rolling from a buncha neo-fascist corndawg lovers is only the script of this particular element of ongoing, wall to wall propaganda.

hint: corporations like being inhumane, money-machines... it's there basic application (not a bug!)

Posted by: neill on June 23, 2009 at 10:17 AM | PERMALINK

Every last one of the PowerLine idiots are dicks, especially Hinderaker. I'm embarrassed that they live in my state.

Posted by: David Bailey on June 23, 2009 at 10:19 AM | PERMALINK

Doesn't NBC have staffers in their newsroom who might prepare an interviewer like Mitchell as to the possible lines of attack a guest might take and how to handle them on follow-up, or is NBC's job just to ask the questions and let people say whatever? Don't answer that.

Posted by: Th on June 23, 2009 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK

BTW I forgot to mention, I'll bet a lot of loss of support for Obama is from progressives who think he sold out on wars, torture accountability, transparency, blowing off mountain tops, non-ideological issues like appointing donors to posts, etc. I'll bet, enough to drop down the remaining, conservative negatives to less than the progressive positives.

Posted by: Neil B ♪ ♫ on June 23, 2009 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

I think the heart of the problem is that Hinderaker is an unrepentant moron.

Posted by: doubtful on June 23, 2009 at 10:37 AM | PERMALINK

Is Hinderaker related to Pablo Pickasso?

Posted by: Danp on June 23, 2009 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

Nevertheless, arguments like Hinderaker's can have an impact, even if they're easily-discredited.

Hell, that's what the dishonest hacks at PowerLine and Instapundit, et al, are for: to produce arguments that can and will be parroted on the national media with little risk that the fact that they're discredited will be mentioned, let alone emphasized.

Joe Conason documented the Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance of Drudge-Faux Nexs-so-called "liberal media" years ago in the book Big Lies.

Posted by: Gregory on June 23, 2009 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

The other thing that I haven't seen taken into account is what a unique issue this really is. We've been having this discussion for nigh on twenty years now, an entire generation, and it's actually something that affects most people. People may now be healthcare or policy specialists, but they know from personal experience that what we have isn't working. They've seen friends go bankrupt from medical problems, they've had hmos deny or fight coverage. Not on tv, but personally. It's a lot harder to buy spin when you've seen the bad stuff yourself.

Posted by: Northzax on June 23, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

Hinderaker is the Winger that gushed over GWB, saying "It must be very strange to be President Bush. A man of extraordinary vision and brilliance approaching to genius, he can't get anyone to notice. He is like a great painter or musician who is ahead of his time, and who unveils one masterpiece after another to a reception that, when not bored, is hostile."

Every time that idiot is referenced in the media, posts like the one above need to be pointed out, to give his current screeds, and his mental anti-prowess proper consideration.

Posted by: jcricket on June 23, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

Well, they don't call Hinderacker "Assrocket" for nothing.

Posted by: Stetson Kennedy on June 23, 2009 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK

jcricket: That was the Hinderaker quote that compelled me to mention that I thought he was on crack...

Stetson Kennedy: I saw a post where someone mentioned that the aforementioned nickname was a sexual toy...

Posted by: quotidian one on June 23, 2009 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK

The R's reasoning: "Somebody is saying it, so we'll cite it as a credible source." Nevermind that it's just someone's opinion. An idiot's opinion. Nevermind that if a liberal blog stated the opposite and a Dem cited that as a source, the Rs would say, oh those liberal commie Democrats are sourcing those liberal commie blogs. Even the blogger in question used facts and reason for his/her position.

Posted by: Hannah on June 23, 2009 at 11:51 AM | PERMALINK

Steve, every minute of your life you spend engaging the "arguments" of a clown like Hindrocket is a minute you'll never get back.

Posted by: Toast on June 23, 2009 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK

An easy rejoinder: Even though 50% of the voting population voted for George W., I doubt you'd find 25% of the population admitting that today.

Posted by: Facebones on June 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

Toast, you have a point. Steve, Kevin, Hilzoy etc. need to spend more time (among them, at least) on less titillating but more insidious influence by old style Banking, energy, and big med lobbyists etc.

Posted by: Neil B on June 23, 2009 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK
Post a comment









Remember personal info?










 

 
Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

Advertise in WM

Advertise in College Guide






Search Now:
In Association with Amazon.com


Place Your Link Here

---Paid Advertisements---

Payday Loans

Personal Loans

Addiction Treatment

Phone Cards

Less Debt = Financial Freedom

Addiction Treatment Programs

Credit Cards & Debt Consolidation

Bad Credit Loans

Vacation Rentals