July 2, 2009
NOT A GREEN SHOOT.... The unemployment trend had at least been going in the right direction. While the overall unemployment rate was going up, the month-to-month numbers offered at least some signs of encouragement -- March's numbers were better than February's, April's numbers were better than March's, and May's numbers were better than April's.
Regrettably, the job market in June didn't cooperate with the trend.
The pace of job losses quickened in June after falling sharply just a month earlier, casting a shadow over the Obama administration's attempts to stanch months of stark declines in the labor market.
The American economy shed 467,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent, its highest level in 26 years, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Job losses were widespread among the construction, manufacturing and business and professional services sectors.
Earlier forecasts expected 365,000 job losses in June, making the actual numbers all the more painful.
What's more, the 9.5% unemployment rate climbs to 16.5% if we include those who are working part-time but want full-time employment, or those who've simply given up. This number, often referred to as the U6 measure, continues to be at its highest point since the government began keeping track in 1994.
There have now been 6.5 million job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007.
—Steve Benen 9:00 AM
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I gotta tell you Steve, I volunteer for an online suicide watch and it's really hitting hard right now. Talked to one guy just yesterday who'd been looking for a year and a half, and was thinking his family would be better off with the insurance money instead of him.
I really, really wish President Obama would put some effort into giving these people hope too. Some sort of counseling service at the unemployment offices maybe?
Posted by: MissMudd on July 2, 2009 at 9:10 AM | PERMALINK
Unfortunately, jobs we're losing now are jobs that are gone for good. My fear is that even when new green industries begin taking off (and by necessity they will) most of it will be imported technology and product. Untill we stop the hemmorrage of jobs and technology overseas this country will continue a steep decline. Personally, I think we're past the tipping point and the corporations are now picking the carcass clean. They're gearing up for the next consumer giants, China and India to fill the void.
Posted by: Saint Zak on July 2, 2009 at 9:14 AM | PERMALINK
The fact that the Unemployment Rate is at the highest level in 26 years means that it is highly likely that all unemployement rates will be at the highest level in 15 years.
Posted by: neil wilson on July 2, 2009 at 9:15 AM | PERMALINK
the incompetence and greed everywhere and the shortsightedness in washington of "the best" who "lack all conviction" sure doesn't help -- the poetry is good, with the anarchy of a blood-dimmed tide loosed upon the earth, etc.
and, luckily, the vatican knows what to do -- it's the nuns' fault.
Posted by: neill on July 2, 2009 at 9:25 AM | PERMALINK
I remember walking into an unemployment office in Hollywood, CA several years ago. Not knowing the movie industry system, I was surprised to see so many "known" actors there. Learned it was a between jobs thing. Just waiting for their next gig. Sorta like being laid-off. The biggest problem, today, for most is that they are not laid off. The firms they worked for, the plants where they labored are gone. There is no there there. There may well be no next "gig".
Posted by: berttheclock on July 2, 2009 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK
Numbers start looking good? Republicans say, "See? The financial crisis wasn't really a crisis. We should stop the stimulus spending before it overheats the economy."
Numbers don't look so good? Republicans say, "See? The stimulus spending isn't having any effect. We should cancel it before the debt grows."
It must be easy being a Republican, where you get to start with the answer and build the question to match.
Posted by: Bernard Gilroy on July 2, 2009 at 9:40 AM | PERMALINK
We're fools to think that an economic disaster 28 years in the making is going to show any real signs of recovery in just a few months. It's just not possible.
Meanwhile, June is graduation month and the start of summer break month. I wonder what effect, if any, this has on the numbers?
Posted by: chrenson on July 2, 2009 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK
It's looking like Krugman was right and is right: the stimulus needed to be bigger; this will be a jobless recovery.
Obama got rolled on the stimulus package. And the economy is now his. He'd better have a Plan B.
Posted by: sjw on July 2, 2009 at 9:49 AM | PERMALINK
Obama didn't get rolled at all -- he he was the one who wanted 80 votes, remember? And made all sorts of stupid concessions up front in the name of "bipartisanship."
Add to that an economic team that doesn't give two figs whether regular people have jobs or not -- they're solely interested in protecting their cronies on wall street & getting the stock market back on track so that those leeches can just make more & more money while those in jobs that actually make stuff go wanting.
Job well done there.
Posted by: zhak on July 2, 2009 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK
So happy to see many a campus update their graduation ceremonies. Now, one receives his or her diploma, flips the tassel, and steps forward to receive food vouchers.
Posted by: berttheclock on July 2, 2009 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
chrenson beat me to it: I'd be willing to bet that the June numbers are a cyclical thing having to do with the academic calendar as much as the economy. Lots of people work nine-month years in academia and are probably having a much harder time finding a job to fill the summer gap this year.
Nonetheless, job hunting is a scary prospect right now. . .
Posted by: Michigoose on July 2, 2009 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
point well taken, zhak: "rolled" was wrong. Obama played it stupidly with the stimulus package. I hope that he realizes this crucial fact, with the consequence that he smacks his economic advisors upside the head and he does a Stimulus 2 right quick. Ok, I won't hold my breath ...
Posted by: sjw on July 2, 2009 at 10:34 AM | PERMALINK
Obama played it stupidly with the stimulus package
Washington (AP) In a joint press availability today President Collins and President Nelson called for a second stimulus package, this one focused on immediate employment and assistance to states wracked by declining tax revenues and soaring demand for social programs.
“Hey, so we fucked up the last time,” President Nelson said, “every dog gets two bites.” President Collins’ spokesman said “We knew everyone from Krugman to the guy who parks my car said the first package was too small by a factor of two, and not enough of it went to unemployment and food stamps and such. But $800 billion is such a nice round number, and who knew the states were in such trouble?”
It is not yet sure out of which ass will be pulled the arbitrary round number down to which the second package will be whittled to make Senators feel useful.
Posted by: Davis X. Machina on July 2, 2009 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK
You ain't seen nothing yet... wait until China and Russia decouple ther international trade from the dollar. They are currently in talks about how to proceed with this, which is being reported in the international media, but not in the US MSM. No surprise there I guess.
The next development will be monetary hyper-inflation coupled with full-on depression level unemployment.
Fasten your seatbelts.
Posted by: Buford on July 2, 2009 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK
We're fools to think that an economic disaster 28 years in the making is going to show any real signs of recovery in just a few months. It's just not possible.
You got that right. Supply-side deregulation voodoo economics has come home to roost with a vengence.
Posted by: Juanita de Talmas on July 2, 2009 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK
The next development will be monetary hyper-inflation coupled with full-on depression level unemployment.
I'm not an economist. In fact, I'm just awful at dealing with money. I hate it.
But I kid around a lot. And for the last 15 years or so, I've used the phrase "the looming economic cataclysm" for comic effect in conversations. An example:
Them: "Say, Chrenson. That's a nice bike you have there."
Me: "Thanks, Buford. I bought it to try to lose a few pounds. And of course, to prepare for the looming economic cataclysm."
Man, I hate being right all the time. Especially when I'm just kidding.
Posted by: chrenson on July 2, 2009 at 12:12 PM | PERMALINK
Without the auto situation in June (thousands of dealerships being closed, I think we would have seen June numbers better than May. As others have said, this can't be fixed in a few months, but it is moving in the right direction.
Plus, many have noted that jobs recover 6-9 months after the economy, so that would be late this year, first half of next year.
As Douglas Adams wrote: Don't Panic.
Posted by: Rob Goldman on July 2, 2009 at 1:21 PM | PERMALINK
The U.S. economy currently has no Plan B in the event the credit/consumer economy never comes back--a scenario which appears not just likely but inevitable.
Posted by: C.H. Smith on July 2, 2009 at 2:03 PM | PERMALINK
How can the government support a status quo which requires $2 trillion in new borrowing every year just to keep from collapsing? What if that debt load is unsustainable? Then what?
Posted by: Bohn Jolton on July 2, 2009 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK
"The U.S. economy currently has no Plan B..." C.H. Smith @ 2:03 PM.
Just because Treasury and the WH aren't opening every discussion with what they will do in some hypothetical future does NOT mean they have no "Plan B". If the Federal government starts saying that it will do X in the event of Y happening, how long do you think it will take for Wall Street to start hedging itself against the possibility of Y occurring?
And don't forget there is the chance that any actions taken by Wall Street might just possibly increase the risk of Y actually taking place? Remember, Wall Street is there to make money; if that happens over the destroyed economy of the U.S. it won't bother them.
Posted by: Doug on July 2, 2009 at 8:02 PM | PERMALINK