Probably not in Arizona, where John McCain looks likely to win another term despite blowing off his day job for two years in a painfully public effort to get another one.

She won't need a day job if the stories out of Alaska are correct.

mccain was simply the least insane of the clown car... employed or not. and he had the best facade...

palin is a sadly tortured, confused, way way way over her head person.

Can we now move on to more important stuff? Like Michael Jackson's wandering spirit?

It's a fool's errand trying to predict Palin's trajectory based on the past. Never before has there been anyone with her popularity despite her limited intellect, experience and message, or with her legal problems, public gaffes and inability to construct a coherent sentence.

I hope the job she was clearing her calendar for was not presidential candidate but criminal trial defendant.

To state the obvious, Reagan and Carter completed their terms in office. They didn't quit to run full time. Reagan served two terms and Carter one (Georgia Governers were not allowed to serve successive terms at that time). Arguably after completing their terms it made sense to run full time as an ex governor. The number of Senators getting elected directly to the presidency is 3. Running for the senate with the idea of running for President before you complete a term doesn't seem like a good idea.

Sarah Palin does not compare to either well and quitting after a half term to run full time makes no sense.

My prediction is that by the end of the summer Palin gets a show on Fox News, for a big salary of course. She relocates to NYC, keeping the Wasilla address as her "official" residence for cred.

She pounds on Obama every show, which will be very popular. If the economy tanks enough, she could use it as a springboard for a 2012 run. If not, she gets rich and secures her status as a celeb. It's win-win for her.

"Never before has there been anyone with her popularity despite her limited intellect, experience and message, or with her legal problems, public gaffes and inability to construct a coherent sentence."

huh?

try bush junior

I think Palin discovered that being governor of Alaska was a job, and that it interfered with "Being Sarah Palin", the job she already has and loves the best.

She has no interest in serving in political office. That involves actual work, and thinking about practical solutions to problems. My prediction is that she'll come out with a smack-talking ghostwritten autobiography, and then get herself a high-paying talk show on Fox News painting herself as the next Anne Coulter, where she won't have to listen to anyone's criticism of her or respond to the public's questions. It will pay much better than a career in government and continue her personality cult.

"Never before has there been anyone with her popularity despite her limited intellect, experience and message, or with her legal problems, public gaffes and inability to construct a coherent sentence."

To paraphrase something I read a day or two ago (sorry forgot where), if she looked like Susan Boyle, nobody would know her name.

John Edwards is probably the best recent comparable-a politician whose ambitions far exceeded his qualifications. see how that one turned out.

try bush junior - tucker

Bush had a full term plus as gov. and his message of uniter- not divider, compassionate conservative, don't trust Washington with your money was very appealing t many people. You'd be hard pressed to come up with a slogan or idea to associate with Palin other than "I'm a fighter" or "I'm a victim".

"In fact, this decision comes after much consideration, and finally polling the most important people in my life - my children (where the count was unanimous... well, in response to asking: "Want me to make a positive difference and fight for ALL our children's future from outside the Governor's office?" It was four "yes's" and one "hell yeah!" The "hell yeah" sealed it - and someday I'll talk about the details of that... I think much of it had to do with the kids seeing their baby brother Trig mocked by some pretty mean-spirited adults recently.) Um, by the way, sure wish folks could ever, ever understand that we all could learn so much from someone like Trig - I know he needs me, but I need him even more... what a child can offer to set priorities right - that time is precious... the world needs more "Trigs", not fewer. "

That didn't come out right: is she counting her husband as one of the children, or was it the baby who answered 'hell, yeah'? (And does that crack add me to the legendary legions of Trig-mocking meanies? Seriously, who has been mocking Trig?) Also, that's a fine example of a biased question in a poll - she could do infinitely more for the future for all children from inside the governor's office than from outside.

I'm going for need for money (in part to pay off legal bills), being overwhelmed by family concerns, the idea that this can simultaneously make her a maverick and free her to campaign in the lower 48, and upcoming indictments, all rolled into one gigantic puddle of confused thinking.

The whole speech is rambling, incoherent, and hideous. I'm flabbergasted that it came from a prepared transcript.

"...a symptom of what's crippling the Republican Party of late: Governing has become an unwelcome distraction."

Not to mention their being so bad at it. And the Republican Party's recent opposition to representative government and governing.

Somebody needs to point out, as many times as it takes, that you shouldn't elect someone who keeps telling you that government is by its very nature bad, government is inherently incompetent, government is always the enemy.

It's undemocratic. It's un-American. In fact, let's announce it here, on Independency Day - this philosophy is the ultimate un-Americanism.

'In the last 20 years, perseverers have prospered while quitters withered.'

that's a very convincing argument because they have such a large sample size that it is bound to be meaningful.

'In 1986, Gary Hart chose not to run for a third Senate term and went on to meet Donna Rice. In 2004, John Edwards passed up a second Senate term and went on to meet Rielle Hunter.'

that's a very good argument because obviously quitting means you will philander, or something. Also people never get upset about philandering, but just quitting. The counter example of Bill Clinton persevering is also good because he never went on to meet anyone. These are probably the strongest arguments not just in this article but perhaps in the whole history of American politics.

'Bob Dole's spectacular resignation from the Senate after he clinched the Republican nomination in June 1996 earned his campaign a few days of good press. But when his White House bid was over, Dole no longer had the Senate job he had loved.'

That's also an extremely powerful argument; Dole not having his job that he had loved at the end of his campaign definitely demonstrates that quitting that job helped him to lose the campaign.

All in all I certainly feel smarter having read all that.

N.Wells --

Did you read the transcript? It's worse. Full strange punctuation and spelling, very strange.

re: bob dole. iirc, when he resigned from the senate in '96, he said the move left him "with no place to go except the white house or home to russell, kansas."
last i heard he was still living in d.c.

Nixon didn't quit a sitting gig, but he did quit politics altogether in 1962 after having his ass handed to him in California. He came roaring back in '68, but he had to work assiduously for it. Palin's not willing to work at all; she's assuming she can wink and aw-shucks her way to the nomination. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. The GOP is going to have to get serious next time. The country has shifted leftward, and the party is going to have to adapt to this new reality if it has any hope of victory.

Well, whatever really is behind Sarahgrate (sic - I just pulled that phrase OOMA), she handled it very weirdly. Her put down of being a "lame duck" etc. - my God, WTF? Is she suggesting, any Governor who can only have one term isn't worth doing the job at all? And to quit so abruptly, waaaay back in summer 2009 when no one is really worrying much about who's running in 2012. Well there is the Sanford and Ensign fracases, but so? Bizarre. Who would tell her to do this, any names come to mind? Do the AK bloggers have more clue than us? I would think Mudflats has some interesting ideas - Steve and Hilzoy, you need to check them.

Peter Ferrara writes over at FauxNoise.com (emphases mine):

I am hoping she spends two weeks of every month now touring the states doing fundraisers for a the sweeping Republican revival in 2010 that is now developing. I hope she establishes a new national grassroots organization to fight for conservative causes. And I hope she starts a new national think tank in Washington.

She could pick up the mantle for social conservatism for the late Paul Weyrich in Washington, reinvigorating the pro-life cause and defense of traditional values. She could advocate sane, grown up energy policies through these organizations, favoring increased production of traditional as well as alternative energy, including nuclear power, while opposing fruitcake ideas like cap- and-trade taxes, and runaway corporate welfare that would bring back Jimmy Carter's synfuels. She should also lead the nation's mothers to oppose mandating replacement of incandescent light bulbs with the new mercury poison gas bulbs.

Actually, there's no commentary needed. These people really do live in an alternative universe, and "being Rpublican" is a mental disorder.

Danp - I've got to agree with Tucker that Palin just picked up with Republicans where George W got left behind. Sure, their stories aren't identical, but whose ever is? Yes, he had a few more years as governor, but the Alaskan governor actually has power, while the Texas governor doesn't (how else could anchorman-esque Rick Perry ever have stayed on so long). Besides, Bush only got the governor job to pad his resume for the presidential job, and didn't even have Palin's record in local politics to stand on before that. She was in politics longer than Bush was before he became president.

As for the message, "compassionate conservative" wasn't a message, it was an empty slogan. As was the "uniter" bit. Nobody rallied around him because of those "messages." And I think Palin actually has more of a message than Bush did. She was a "reformer" who supports the little people and opposes "politics as usual." That's what she ran with as governor and continued with even in her resignation speech.

Again, all she did was take up the Rockstar Conservative torch that reality stole from Bush. But as for projecting her trajectory, it's straight down. Even if a larger scandal doesn't break soon (and I think it will), this is the end for Sarah Palin. She might be able to pull a Giuliani and stay on the speech circuit for a few years, but her political career is over.

Doctor Biobrain - I have to disagree on a few counts.

1) Gov. of TX may be a weak position, but in terms of perception Bush did well to portray it as one of the world's largest economies. Also, six years is a lot more than Palin's tenure.

2) I also think I would argue that his experience in the oil industry and Texas Rangers exceeds that of mayor of a small town, especially when she hired a city manager to actually do the job.

3) While Bush's message was phony, I think a lot of people accepted it, and considered it a positive way forward. Palin's was exclusively negative, and mostly jumbled, in that it never translated into a way forward. Of course, part of that is that she was a VP candidate.

4) As for reformer, what was Palin's claim to that moniker other than fighting Republican corruption (which actually was done by others)?

5) While Bush did have Harkin, his scandal(s) were pretty much limited to liberal books and blogs. Palin had Troopergate, per diems, clothing from RNC, crony hirings, politically motivated firings and AIP. Some were limited to liberal media, but not to the degree Bush's were.

I will agree on the last point. Bush was the team cheerleader rather than the coach. He was also Palin's model in that sense.

One more thing - When Bush ran in 2000, part of his appeal was that he was surrounded with people with tremendous experience, such as Cheney, Powell and Rice. It was clear he was part of an organized movement, not merely a renegade like Palin.

Maybe we get a little paranoid about our wingnut friends. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Sarah/Nixon/Reagan comparisons really don't work.

Nixon had been a congresscritter and a senator, before he got elected veep with the very popular Ike. He served two full terms, was highly visible, ran for prez and lost narrowly to JFK in 1960. Yeah, he immolated himself with his whiny rant after he lost the CA governor's race in 1962, but by the time the GOP nomination race started in '67 he had been a national political figure for almost 30 years. As much as I disliked him, there was no denying his experience and intellect.

Unfortunately for liberals, Reagan was one of the most frighteningly underestimated politicians in history. He was, of course, very well known, hugely articulate, and had served two pretty successful terms as gov of the most populous (and usually, very progressive) state, the same state that elected Pat Brown Sr and Jr - twice each.

This is a very different media (and political) age, to be sure. But Sarah has none of these qualities: less than one full term as governor of one of the smallest (population) states; national visibility that consists almost entirely of mockery and derision except for a very small, if noisy, subset of the population; and a remarkably vacant persona - EVEN IF there isn't any indictment or scandal forthcoming. And remember, the GOP rules are winner-take-all in the primaries. I can see her winning in a couple of smallish states, and finishing second in a lot more, but second in a GOP primary is nothing.

In the end I think the GOP will nominate someone a lot less toxic, if no more sensible.

Your powers of misunderestimation know no bounds.

It's the smart play.

This gives her 3 1/2 years to do all the things needed to build an effective campaign, as opposed to the lilliputian task of trying to run a state while distracted by mounting frivolous FOIA requests and ethics complaints. She's a sitting duck in Alaska.

If Palin can make the case effectively that she largely fulfilled her gubernatorial campaign promises, her early resignation is a eminently manageable.

Geographically, it would be virtually impossible for a sitting governor of Alaska to run for the Presidency.

Palin can make far more in less than a month of speeches than she would make if she stayed on for 16 months.

The frenetic demonization thrown her way since she was drafted by McCain is proof positive of both her political appeal and the mortal fear the democratic establishment, including the MSM, has of Palin as a Presidential candidate. So much ferocious energy wouldn't have been expended otherwise, nor would it be continuing.

She can travel abroad and develop leadership relationships and international expertise.

As Obama heads into rough waters, she can be heel-nipper-in-chief for 3 1/2 years. Under that scenario and given time, things most likely will look entirely different politically.

She's got a huge base of popularity. While the MSM was able to successfully define her in 08, and shift the middle back toward Obama, she had the unique power to shift it in her direction initially (in a matter of what, a week or two), and may well be able to do it again. It'll be interesting to see her media strategy.

Her baskerball teamates nicknamed her Sarah Barracuda for a reason.

She is a marathoner.

Alright, maybe not a huge base, but a very solid and enthusiastic one, which she can expand, running her own show.

As a general matter, I think the "professional candidate," like edwards following 2004 and romney in 2007, have suffered from a certain brand of political cravenness that grows out of living only to give speeches.

I think there's a grounding effect associated with still holding office - a sense of not getting too caught up in one's own hype because there are still ordinary people who expect you to do a job for them.

Finally, I think quitting kills your homefield advantage in your home state, which is important. I always thought mccain's lack of popularity in arizona really called into question his claims of integrity. There's something troubling about the constituents who know a politician best not liking or trusting the pol that is very off putting. In fact, as much as I always thought palin was a joke, I always had a grudging respect for the fact that alaskans seemed to like her.

Now that's gone. And she's done.

I like the affairs.

There is great danger in being an unemployed rich and powerful man that you will end up with a mistress putting your future political career at risk.

Not all that spare time is spent campaigning for office.

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