Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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July 5, 2009

PALIN'S PERILOUS PROSPECTS?.... Sarah Palin's resignation has raised a lot of reasonable questions that are hard to answer. Why is she quitting? What's her next move? What is she thinking?

But if Palin has decided to give up after just two years in the governor's office so she can pursue national office, the next question is, hasn't the last 48 hours effectively ruined her political career beyond repair?

I noticed one far-right blogger said on Friday, "It's over. You can't resign from a governorship and then run for higher office. Barring some strong reason, like needing treatment for cancer." ("It," in this case, was apparently a reference to Palin's future in politics.)

I'm inclined to think this is right. Palin asked voters to give her four years as her state's chief executive, and she's quitting after 30 months. Her rationale -- she's facing media pressure and doesn't want to work as a lame-duck governor -- is quite literally unbelievable. In her two and a half years as governor, Palin hasn't accomplished much, hasn't demonstrated mastery of any area of public policy, and was found to have violated state ethics laws.

If she runs for the Republican nomination in 2012, Palin has the kind of record that her rivals are likely to exploit to great effect. The only high-profile pundits I've noticed praising these bizarre developments are Mary Matalin and Bill Kristol, and both of them have poor analytical skills.

Summarizing the bottom line, Josh Marshall makes the case that Palin is finished.

You could keep plumbing the depths of this ridiculousness for some time. But as MC rightly notes it's simply poisonous, toxic, fatal for anyone running for president. Setting side political and policy stances, the one thing really key about a president is that they be steady under pressure, not rash, and not prone to spur of the moment freak outs where they just walk away from the job to go to Disneyland. A lot of nonsense gets knocked around about 'character' in presidential elections. But this is the foundational question of character that really is critical. Assuming this isn't about some soon-to-pop scandal and it's really that Palin just decided on a moment's notice (look at how much preparation went into the press conference to know how long this was in the works) to up and walk away from her responsibilities, that's simply fatal for anyone's presidential chances.

She may resurface as a latter-day Hannity or she may found some Palin-specific Anti-Defamation League dedicated to calling out obscure bloggers who've written mean things about her. But what very little shot she had as a future presidential candidate (and it was a much longer shot than I think many realized) is over. She's done. She's back to what she was -- a small person looking for someone to be angry at.

That certainly sounds persuasive. Indeed, I agree with nearly every word.

But there's just a nagging feeling I have that when it comes to the Republican Party base, reason and logic are largely irrelevant. The kinds of voters who participate in, say, the Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa in 2012, may not care whether Palin has thoroughly discredited herself as a credible and serious political figure. Hell, they might very well think, "Sure, Palin may quit the White House in 2014 if the going gets tough, but I'd rather have two years of the Quitta from Wasilla than none at all."

Can Palin recover from her humiliating fall? She shouldn't be able to, and the country will be better off if she isn't able to, but I'm not quite ready to rule out the possibility.

Steve Benen 12:55 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (93)

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Comments

How many time did she say in her speech variations on No More Politics As Usual? I'm afraid this nutball thinks she's being daring and innovative. It's certainly not politics as usual. Grabbing the No More Politics As Usual banner and leading a herd of crazies right over a cliff could be a good thing, as long as the cliff is high enough.

Posted by: martin on July 5, 2009 at 12:57 PM | PERMALINK

Exactly right, these people are apt to think this makes her more of a martyr on the one hand unusually clever on the other.

Any problem she might face in office is someone elses' fault, so let them deal with it, is what they'll think.

Posted by: alan on July 5, 2009 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK

What was the Far Right's previous advice? Let Palin be Palin? Well, look where that led. I suspect, though, that Palin could have killed a puppy with a tack hammer during her farewell address and there would still be some who swooned at her political acumen and straight-from-the-shoulder honesty. There's a segment of the American voting population that is determined to cast Sarah Palin as a great leader in the face of all evidence to the contrary.

Not enough to win her serious office in future, though. Not even close.

Posted by: Mark on July 5, 2009 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK

Steve- has anyone looked into her claim that she's accomplished more in her first term than most governors have in two?

Posted by: John on July 5, 2009 at 1:00 PM | PERMALINK

The main problem in the US is that while the population of perfect nutballs is at about the same percentage as anywhere else, we have 300 million people which gives us a much higher total number of nutballs who get organized to go out nutballing in public.

Posted by: alan on July 5, 2009 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

It's quite clear that conservatives look for qualities other than character and thoughtfulness in their candidates. Of course, libruls like Marshall will argue that those sort of things matter. Worse, libruls have gone and inflicted Barack Obama on the nation, who's got character and thoughtfulness practically coming out of his ears. So, I don't think Starburst Sarah is out of politics-- not yet.

Posted by: MattF on July 5, 2009 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK

I'm with your nagging feelings. Why should -this- matter? "Oops, I invaded the wrong country!' doesn't matter. Torture and war crimes don't matter. But -this- is gonna matter?

Also: Palin isn't aware that 4 pm on a Friday is a good time for a news dump.

Let me explain the right to you: what Palin did here was, rejected politics as usual. She's a maverick. She's thinking outside the hidebound liberal DC box. This doesn't prove she's -not- fit for higher office, this proves she -is-.

Posted by: gussie on July 5, 2009 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK

While she may be the darling of the base at this point in time, first of all remember that it's a shrinking base and not sufficient to win anything.

Second, if she gets into the primaries she'll be debating with other Republicans in their own controlled environment. She won't be able to blame Katie Couric for not being able to name a newspaper she reads.

Third, she's now a serial quitter, from the mayoral job, from the oil commission and now governor. Her Republican opponents will kill her on that (in a polite way, of course).

A Palin run in 2012 will end up with the Joe the Plumber vote and not much else.

Posted by: tomeck on July 5, 2009 at 1:03 PM | PERMALINK

Steve, you're right. She's finished in politics.

I think that's all she wants. She's tired of the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to get anything done, she's not good at it, and the days when she was feted and lauded just for showing up are all behind her. The fun ended in November, and when she got back to Alaska, that was also no more fun.

That's the best speculation I have come up with, and it seems quite satisfying to me as a reasonable explanation. She just got so tired of the hassles that she has thrown up her hands and is walking away.

She's going to try to find something that exploits her celebrity status, but it won't be politics and it especially won't be a job where she actually has to do something and be responsible to others for it.

Regarding your comment "...Mary Matalin and Bill Kristol, and both of them have poor analytical skills.", that was a very restrained way of saying they are incompetent.

Posted by: Rick B on July 5, 2009 at 1:04 PM | PERMALINK

A litle something to help you go to sleep:
In 2012:
The unemployment rate holds steady at 12%;
Iran has just tested a nuclear weapon;
Three major banks have collapsed in the last six months;
40% of all houses are underwater from mortgages;
GDP has been in and out of negative territory for the last two years;
California and four other states have defaulted on their bonds;
And the Republican ticket is...Palin/Hucabee.
Finito la musica.

Posted by: E L on July 5, 2009 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK

Am I the only one who is starting to feel sorry for Palin? 'Cause I can get over it.

Posted by: Danp on July 5, 2009 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK

Palin isn't known as a gaffe machine even though she's probably the most incoherent speaker on the national stage. The reason is her prolixity. She just talks and talks and talks in that idiosyncratic way of hers. Are the dittoheads really that impressed with her? I don't think so. They just pick up that she's a lightning rod and she's on their team. Tribalism fills in the blanks.

There's no way someone of such marginal intellectual capacity can run for president. She could get 20% of the vote in Iowa but it would be downhill from there. She's not ready for primetime, never will be, and is undeservedly respected as it is.

Posted by: walt on July 5, 2009 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK

Logic and reasonableness have nothing to do with Palin. My local newspaper's online forum is full of "Go Get 'em Sarah!" comments this morning, accusing us "libs" and "lefties" of being afraid of her political genius. She has plenty of followers ("us commoners" as one put it) but nowhere near enough to win a caucus or primary, let alone a national election. I'm a little worried she'll be lurking around the "heartland" (where I live) a lot more than before. However, the commoners won't be able to afford the $1000-a-plate dinners she'll be hosting to pay her legal bills in Alaska. I'm still leaning toward "the other shoe" theory. In the meantime, we all can enjoy the show!

Posted by: justme on July 5, 2009 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK

How astute of you Steve, you HAVE been awake during this century so far! Never underestimate the ability of the American public to embrace mediocracy (and beyond)...led, of course, by the paid for punditry...Interesting that Governors of Virginia are term limited to 4 years...think they all should just up and leave after 2...WAY TO GO!!!

Posted by: Dancer on July 5, 2009 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK

"...the one thing really key about a president is that they be steady under pressure, not rash, and not prone to spur of the moment freak outs...

See Dean, Howard. Knocked out of the primaries because he used his "outside voice" indoors.

Posted by: Grumpy on July 5, 2009 at 1:11 PM | PERMALINK

Palin was not and is not a lame duck governor. She made the decision not to run again. There was no prohibition against her running for AK governorship in the next election cycle in AK. For her to assert that her own unilateral decision creates the status of "lame duck" is bootstrapping. I believe she wanted to quit, for what reason I can only speculate, and so she has tried to create cover for that decision with this asinine "lame duck" canard.

Posted by: anon,too on July 5, 2009 at 1:13 PM | PERMALINK

The Palinites running around last year said she was tough, smart, comptent and could take the heat. She never had any of those qualities. If she did then the stupid wouldn't have flowed out her mouth in the quantities that it did.

Makes her supporters look like stupid chumps who fall for "pretty" words and a pretty face.

I'd like to make a few suggestions:
1) Can we no longer use the French as an analogy for capitulation? Replace 'Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys' in the American phrase book with 'Moose shooting beauty queens'.
2) Give Mary Mary Quite Contrary and Kristol Meth the utter lack of respect they deserve. They both saw things in Sarah Palin that any intelligent observer didn't. If the universe were somewhat fair, neither of these two would ever work in politics again except as a "what not to do"

Posted by: Former Dan on July 5, 2009 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK

Morons have:

A right to vote for other morons

An inability to recognize that they or their beloved candidates are

Morons

Posted by: chance on July 5, 2009 at 1:21 PM | PERMALINK

It's hard to believe Palin just cooked this up all in her own head. So the most interesting question is, who advised her to do this and why?

BTW EL et al: how bad would things be if McCain/Palin were in charge? How about if Gore, or even McCain, had won (effectively!) in 2000? It's all about the "counterfactual conditionals."

Posted by: Neil B ♪ on July 5, 2009 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

I suspect the question comes down to money. She can make a lot of it, but not while she's forced to play governor. And yes, she'll likely run in 2012, not because she's likely to win, but because that will give her a chance to make more money.

Posted by: Eagle on July 5, 2009 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK

she'll continue to believe she's got the magic. she'll continue to push her candidacy and get the angry, the superficial and the wingnut. she may even inspire some right wing violence before she's done -- a little of that naughty domestic terror the republicans are so "tsk tsk tsk" about...

Posted by: neill on July 5, 2009 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK

Chance writes:
Morons have:

A right to vote for other morons.

-And they will turn out in droves to vote for Sarah- except they will have forgotten/not realized that you have to REGISTER!

Posted by: DAY on July 5, 2009 at 1:28 PM | PERMALINK

She's never going to be president, obviously. But barring a sex scandal (anything other kind of scandal can be blamed on the media)I think she's got a future as an "author", speaker, and base rallier as long as she still has her looks.

Posted by: Dan L on July 5, 2009 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK

@Grumpy: Your reference to Howard Dean using his "outdoor voice" indoors, I can only assume is directed at the infamous "scream" footage. If you had been paying attention, you would know that the "scream" only occurred on tape. His microphone was isolated in the recording, the noise of the crowd was dampened so that he sounded inappropriately loud.

As for the Talibunny, in her Facebook statement she says: "Those who know me know this is the right decision and obvious decision at that, including Senator John McCain. I thank him for his kind, insightful comments."

When did she talk to McCain? Did she call him to discuss her plans in the days prior to her resignation? Inquiring minds want to know what the communication was between them! Oooh, to have been a fly on the wall during that!

Posted by: karen marie on July 5, 2009 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK

I haven't seen anyone comment on that the main reason she gave for leaving the AK Gov position were the slings and arrows of the outrageous liberal media and other little minded people. Forget, for the moment, the Quitta from Wasilla thing. How, exactly would, say, running for president be easier than being a former VP candidate, from the standpoint of media attention and criticism? If she can't handle it now, how would she handle it then?

Posted by: Jeff S. on July 5, 2009 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK

"This doesn't prove she's -not- fit for higher office, this proves she -is-."

I think you hit on a good observation regarding her followers. EVERYTHING she does, no matter how ridiculous or irrational, indicates what an exceptional leader she is, and will be. Everything.

We saw the same sort of thing with Bush when he was in the White House. He could do nothing wrong; he was never really criticized by his base. Simply to have said that perhaps he did make a mistake was to call into question his entire shroud of infallibility. If he made one mistake, well, he might be prone to making others. And if he made others, well, he might not be such a good leader at all. Therefore, everything he did had to be, by definition, perfect.

The same holds for Palin. Whatever she does or says from here on out, her minions will claim it is brilliant. Just read some of the comments over on Lucianne or Red State. Some of those folks even heap their hatred on Republicans who are criticizing Palin's resignation.

Posted by: castanea on July 5, 2009 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe... maybe...

She plans on starting a third party? Some sort of fundamentalist ultra-right wing small government party? Since the Republican party has "obviously" strayed from "real" American values...

I think her crazy dial goes to 11.

Posted by: David Langdon on July 5, 2009 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK

David Brooks has said in numerous occasions, the the republican party may lose 2 or 3 of the next national elections before they wake up from this folly...as for Palin two words...drama queen!

Posted by: Alagator on July 5, 2009 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK

Interestingly, nary a word from the Lewiston (ID) Morning Tribune. Although she never wrote for the Idaho University paper in Lewiston, she spent hours, literally, hours at the library pouring over NYT v. Sullivan, I presume.

Thanks to those in Alaska who knew Maryline Booker was the real Miss Alaska. As Trevor Denman would say, "She showed far too much class for that field".

Posted by: berttheclock on July 5, 2009 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah Palin is the head of a cult, pure and simple. She enjoys the adoration of her fans, exploits them, and manipulates them into carrying out her evil plans/deeds. Cases in point are the firedavidletterman.org mess and the vitriole from her crowds last year which took the following forms: "communist," "socialist," "terrorist," "muslim,""palling around with terrorists," and "re-distributing wealth," just to name a few.
Palin is a vile woman, and her every move bears watching.

Posted by: majii on July 5, 2009 at 1:55 PM | PERMALINK

Basically her reasons are: it's too hard on her family, that people are too mean to her and her family, and that she can do more outside of politics. Not to mention her bizarro rationale that quitting does not make her a quitter and staying in her job would be apathetic. Seriously? What the hell does she think running for POTUS or (god forbid) actually being POTUS would be like? it's one of the hardest jobs in the world.

How exactly can Palin revive her chances in 2012? She cannot. Forget the right-wing lunatic base that loves her, the GOP cannot and will not let someone that unpredictable be their nominee-- their brand is damaged enough. If they do take her at all seriuosly as a candidate then the GOP is dead, dead, deader than dead.

Posted by: zoe kentucky on July 5, 2009 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

I KNOW WHY SHE HAS RESIGNED!!!!!

She said: "How sad that Washington and the media will never understand; it's about country."

She's going to Nashville to be a Country & Western singer/songwriter!!!!

Posted by: Moxo on July 5, 2009 at 2:00 PM | PERMALINK

Palin's future will consist of being mocked in the comments sections of blogs. Steve has posted about her, let's see... FOUR times today. You're just trolling for snark, aren't you?

Posted by: hells littlest angel on July 5, 2009 at 2:01 PM | PERMALINK

Moxo may be correct and her first song is "Take This Job and Shove It".

Posted by: berttheclock on July 5, 2009 at 2:06 PM | PERMALINK

i think we are witnessing the birth of the theocrat party-and it is the best news the repubs have had all year. if they can be rid of the wingnuts , they can regain the ground they have lost with the uninformed, non-party middle american voter and maybe pull in some nelson-type dems as well.it is no coincidence that faux news has a special about her tonite.

Posted by: sue on July 5, 2009 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK

Is the far right Republican base even relevant anymore? I thought that idea was tossed out in November. I'm not quite sure why there's continues to be such concern and gnashing of teeth over what's going to appeal to the far right. Their time in the sun is over, hopefully for a very, very long time. Let them say whatever they want in support of Palin -- who cares? They are whistling in the wind and they are the only ones who seem not to have noticed. The rest of the country will reject her roundly, in the incredibly slim chance she gets the nomination. She's at minute 14:59 right now, I say just let time march on.

Posted by: Freddie on July 5, 2009 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK

Cashing in.

The correct basketball analogy is the player that "quits" college to turn pro early. Why risk injury or put off earning the big bucks? There is no guarantee that Palin will still be a hot commodity in 2012 or even on a ticket. Like going pro early, the time to cash in is now.

Palin is a hot media commodity. She has a fan base. She is controversial (always good in the media). She annoys/provides fodder for her opponents. She is good at delivering right wing red meat talking points to the base. There are no ethical concerns about media being paid big bucks or accepting big advances from patrons.

This makes perfect sense to me. Palin really isn't interested in the finer points of policy. She is content with delivering the talking points of the day. Like many in the GOP, political power is a way to deal plums to patrons in return for future wealth. Expect Palin to be the next hot right wing pundit.

Posted by: bakho on July 5, 2009 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK

If her thin skin is offended by the ramblings of "obscure bloggers", how is she going to cope with whatever her primary opponents throw at her during the campaign? She may try to get the nomination, but I don't see her making it through the grueling campaign without feeling offended by every criticism about her. I think a person is either born with thick skin or isn't. It's not something that can be "developed" like boning up on Foreign Policy.

She also gives me pause to wonder if she does manage to get elected - heaven forbid - will she walk away from that job too when the going gets tough? There's no doubt in my mind she would. Once a quitter, always a quitter!

Posted by: mrspeel on July 5, 2009 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

I love her new title, "the Quitta from Wasilla". With that in mind, she strikes me as a spent force. She has a noisy following, but I suspect that it is not so numerous. Politically, I think that she's made herself radioactive. No one in the GOP leadership or actually in office will want to be associated with her and her fundementalist supporters don't count anymore.

Posted by: AK Liberal on July 5, 2009 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK

Like many others, I'm fascinated by this train wreck. But it's Sunday and we've been talking about her since Friday afternoon. (I came back to see if anything juicy had been said on the Sunday morning talk circuit.)

She has since posted more incoherence on Twitter and Facebook, setting off another round of analysis, snark, etc. How I wish we could ignore her! I think she's playing us now. I know better than to implore others to ignore her - I can only control my own behavior.

Posted by: mo on July 5, 2009 at 2:24 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah Palin taps into a narrow but deep vein in the American psyche that is all about grievance. She is a politically viable face on the vitriol of grievance that propels and sustains the audiences for the likes of Limbaugh, Beck, Coulter, et al. I do expect that they will ultimately settle that Palin's resignation is a "Take this job and shove it!" sharp stick in the eye of elitest conventional wisdom. They will view this as audacity - not incomprehensible stupidity or incredible laziness.

I do not believe this is adequate to get her elected as POTUS. But, it is perhaps sufficient to hobble Obama's ability to acheive his agenda in any meaningful way. The Dems have barely begun to think about getting out of the fetal position in the Senate. A vocal movement - no matter how narrow - with Palin as its face and with Limbaugh offering a daily whip and the media following her like she has somehow captured "all hearts" could be formidable. I mean this in the way of driving perception, which is a critical thing. By my way of thinking, Palin's performance in the 08 campaign (and subsequent revelations of her "difficulties" even with her friendlies) should have driven a stake through the heart of her viability as a national candidate. But, it did not. Setting aside those in the right wing base who are attracted to willful ignorance because it somehow validates their own crampled views and knowledge, I knew people who admitted Palin was a joke but still could not bring themselves to recognize what that said about John McCain and the GOP in general.

Palin sells, and I think that will insulate her from the utter repudiation that she deserves. And, THAT, my friends (to quote the man who brought her to the national stage), is why I think she has great potential to be a thorn in the side of the progressive agenda. Even if she will never be POTUS, she may still damage this country in significant and tragic ways.

Posted by: TuiMel on July 5, 2009 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK

She's back to what she was -- a small person looking for someone to be angry at.

That pretty much describes the Republican base, doesn't it?

Posted by: Del Capslock on July 5, 2009 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK

Nice to see St Sarah becoming bilingual - Just love her new "No Mas, No Mas" routine.

Big fight brewing over at FAUX between Hannity and O'Arrongantone about who gets to use her as a paper weight.

Posted by: berttheclock on July 5, 2009 at 2:35 PM | PERMALINK

Can Palin recover from her humiliating fall? She shouldn't be able to, and the country will be better off if she isn't able to, but I'm not quite ready to rule out the possibility.

My question is whether has the sense necessary to realize that she should be humiliated. I get the impression that Sarah Palin thinks she is brilliant.

Posted by: Unstable Isotope on July 5, 2009 at 2:38 PM | PERMALINK

Cashing in. -Bakho.

That sounds about right. She strikes me as being far more interested in advancing her celebrity status than the tedious machinations of daily government. She'll soon be a Fox News pundit.

Posted by: Del Capslock on July 5, 2009 at 2:38 PM | PERMALINK

In terms of her political future at the national level, Sarah Palin is done. No doubt, her fan club in the GOP will stand by her as long as she's not convicted of some criminal act, and some of them may do so even then.

But for the moneyed folks in the GOP, the crowd GWB called his 'real base', poor Sarah is no longer plausible. Too light on skills and maxed out in the erratic department, therefore to risky.

And while the GOP true believers may have the fervor, only the fat cats and the corporate wing can provide the money to fuel the GOP machinery. Without that machinery, the fervor of the true believers is just blind rage.

Lastly, does anybody believe that Sarah Palin has the organizing talent and the staying power to built up and hold together a grass roots movement at the national level?

Posted by: SRW1 on July 5, 2009 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

"A litle something to help you go to sleep:
In 2012:
The unemployment rate holds steady at 12%;
Iran has just tested a nuclear weapon;
Three major banks have collapsed in the last six months;
40% of all houses are underwater from mortgages;
GDP has been in and out of negative territory for the last two years;
California and four other states have defaulted on their bonds;
And the Republican ticket is...Palin/Hucabee.
Finito la musica."
Posted by: E L

The perspective of most of the thread commentary is so Right Now. She probably doesn't know whether she'll run. She can make money, publish, make friends, test the waters for the next 18 months before deciding. And not have to be trapped in the dunking box that her former post morphed into.

One thing you fail to grasp is that a significant number of people, not just Republicans, feel both admiration and sympathy for Palin. Another thing you fail to grasp is the validity of the Tea Party movement (presumably you'd be on the side of the Redcoats in the original version).

When you have so little insight into the appeal of a candidate and a movement, you sound like you're evaluating the political viability of a martian.

I know, you really hope she will just go away.

Posted by: Matt on July 5, 2009 at 2:46 PM | PERMALINK

Yes Matt, and in 2012 Sarah Palin will dazzle us all as the finished product she will be.

When you have so little insight into the repulsion generated by a candidate, you sound like you're evaluating the political viability of a martian.

See, that one was easy.

Posted by: SRW1 on July 5, 2009 at 2:55 PM | PERMALINK

Another thing you fail to grasp is the validity of the Tea Party movement.

What 'validity?' Please note that Boehner/Gingrich and Fox News barely gave a passing nod to the Teabaggers yesterday.

The Tea Party 'movement' (such as it was) is already regarded by the GOP/Faux axis as A Faction Already Taken Advantage Of. Gingrich wouldn't even take their calls, for chrissake.

Posted by: Stranger on July 5, 2009 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK

Neil B (musician): It's hard to believe Palin just cooked this up all in her own head. So the most interesting question is, who advised her to do this and why?

Reportedly (reported over and over by about everybody), Palin does not take advice.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on July 5, 2009 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK

Patience, grasshopper. Events will unfold as they will.

Why be in such a rush to bury her?

If what you say about her is true, she should be a valued asset to you.

Posted by: Matt on July 5, 2009 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK

One politician I know thinks that Palin won't be able to collect royalties on her book if she's governor.

Posted by: pol on July 5, 2009 at 3:18 PM | PERMALINK

With lack of a coherent explanation, I have to assume that she is just "going Galt." That'll show those libruls, socialists, Letterman, city folk, or anyone else she resents.

Posted by: Fnord on July 5, 2009 at 3:26 PM | PERMALINK

Matt: One thing you fail to grasp is that a significant number of people, not just Republicans, feel both admiration and sympathy for Palin.

That was before she quit. Most Americans resepct people who work hard and persevere to overcome obstacles, as with Clarence Thomas who worked to learn Standard American English, and Sonia Sotomayor who overcame prejudice against women and Hispanics. I don't think she can win a single primary against a Republican candidate who served out his or her term of office, much less one who was re-elected.

Is it Rush Limbaugh who frequently reports that you don't get sympathy votes for pointing out that life is unfair? I don't know of Rush except for what I read here, or hear at Prairie Home Companion, but --- I think that he has been quoted to that effect?

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on July 5, 2009 at 3:26 PM | PERMALINK

Stranger: "What 'validity?"

In 1770 Lord North had never heard of Sam Adams or Benjamin Rush either.

By 2012, with cap/trade energy penury, the 2nd or 3rd failed stimulus, and universal govt. health care capitated/rationed to robitussin and ganja for leukemia patients, "validity" will be right up in your grill.

Posted by: tao9 on July 5, 2009 at 3:33 PM | PERMALINK

The current economy is requiring tough choices, unpopular choices for all who govern. It is requiring that those who govern be able to evaluate what-if scenarios and ROI's on projects competing for limited resources. At least Palin can see the writing on the wall that she is incapable of even beginning to know how to do any of this.

She may have made her exit before she was glaringly proven completely and irreparably incompetent, but she is right that this is in Alaska's best interest.

Posted by: jcricket on July 5, 2009 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

Steve, you are forgetting the oil pipeline to nowhere...

In her two and a half years as governor, Palin hasn't accomplished much, hasn't demonstrated mastery of any area of public policy, and was found to have violated state ethics laws.

And doesn't Sarah know more about energy than anyone in America?
And didn't her husband win some sort of snow motorcycle race?

Johnny McCain told me these truths last fall...

Surely they must count for something now?

Posted by: koreyel on July 5, 2009 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK

I think it is possible for Palin to get on the republican 2012 ticket if the Republicans are sure they are going to loose anyway, just like in 2008.

If they think they have a shot though, no way.

Posted by: JeffF on July 5, 2009 at 3:42 PM | PERMALINK

Stupid as they are personally, Republicans are not at all stupid politically. Their hearts go out to the likes of Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul, but in the end they hold their noses and vote for someone like Bob Dole or John McCain. Palin never had a chance, for the Republican nomination, even before this crack-up sealed her political fate.

Palin fans also need to remember who pays for the party: i.e., not them. Rather, the well-heeled Pioneers and Rangers decide what's what in that party, and they know that they might as well burn their money as contribute it to a Palin campaign.

Posted by: kth on July 5, 2009 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK

There's no question in my mind that the people who loved and supported her before will rationalize her actions and support her in whatever she decides to do, including running for prez. If she somehow weasels her way onto the republican ticket in 2012...well, that would tell us a lot more about the gop than about her, wouldn't it.

Posted by: CDW on July 5, 2009 at 3:49 PM | PERMALINK

I don't know nothin' about nothin' but here's what I think.

Palin was a very conservative mayor in a very conservative town, and a very conservative governor in a VERY conservative state. While she was certainly not immune to criticism, much of it was tempered by the understanding that a good chunk of voters had similar temperaments and outlooks to hers.

On top of this, she had far more "help" in her mayoral and gubernatorial duties than many mayors or governors get. In short, she did little of the "grunt work" many people in her positions have to do, freeing her up to be a lovely neoconservative icon.

She likes power. She loves adoring throngs of true believers. She doesn't like the work. And she hates being held up to scrutiny, especially since she so often doesn't know how to govern effectively (read: legally), which is why there are so many ethics complaints.

I won't call her dumb, but she is incredibly intellectually incurious, and I suspect a tiny part of her understands that, to be a leader on the national stage, she'd have to change quite a bit about herself. Not her positions or her opinions. I mean she'll have to know the difference twixt Shia and Sunni. She'll have to know the names of world leaders and their wives. She'll have to dine on dishes even more exotic than moose. She won't always be able to shoot from the hip. She'll have to WORK. And work is HARRRRRRD...

Short version, she wants to be a leader, but only for a very certain type of follower. She can accomplish that more easily getting a gig as a talk show host. She can more easily avoid negative criticism by campaigning for people who share her worldview - let THEM deal with ethics charges! Hurricane Sarah is coming to town, whooping up the base, and then leaving with a ginormous hotel bill and no responsibilities! Whee! She can get a lot of the love she wants -and avoid a lot of the criticism she doesn't - if she's a cheerleader and not on the field.

Which is not to say she wopn't run for President. This really could be a way of keeping her finger pereptually in the air. Wherever she goes, there will inevitably be true believers who beg her to run: We NEED you, Sarah! And eventually she might delude herself into becoming Fred Thompson 2.0. Oh, she'll probably do better than ol' Fred, maybe even win a primary or two down south. And if someone else were foolish enough to offer her the Veep slot again, she might take it. Again, Vice Presidents have precious little actual responsibilities - even fewer responsibilities than she thinks they do, based on some of her awful interviews. That's up Sarah's alley, letting someone else take the heat, so Sarah can be "just Sarah."

But ultimately, there won't be enough people to fall for her line of BS. And quitting will just leave a bad taste in too many people's mouths for her to gain momentum.

And while I'm spouting off predictions...when her book comes out, and she starts making the rounds to promote the book, expect her to move, possibly to LA but more likely to DC or Florida, where she can either be around the chattering class (DC) or a new pile of true believers with faster access to major metro areas (Florida). Once she moves, Fox News (not Fox Broadcasting, but Fox NEWS) will follow her around, ostensibly for a "reality special," all about her book tour abd big move to the lower 48. Every effort will be made to make her look better than good, but PRESIDENTIAL. But best efforts and masterful editing aside, the whole thing will still look like a warmed over reality makeover of the Beverly Hillbillies. The Palins will look like bumpkins who made it to the big time. It will be so awful, Roger Ailes will demand that it never be aired, that all tapes, in fact, be destroyed. Unfortunately, some little gremlin will post it on youtube just long enough for people to make copies, send it to their friends, and destroy her, again.

Posted by: slappy magoo on July 5, 2009 at 4:06 PM | PERMALINK

Reportedly (reported over and over by about everybody), Palin does not take advice.

Except from the First Dude. I think he has a sharper eye for the fast buck than she does and the little woman's crazy day job may finally be wearing on him.

Posted by: alan on July 5, 2009 at 4:10 PM | PERMALINK

One word: Baraquitta...

Posted by: deacon on July 5, 2009 at 4:15 PM | PERMALINK

But who else do the Republicans have?

Posted by: dr sardonicus on July 5, 2009 at 4:17 PM | PERMALINK

Ooooh, Deacon, I think I like your Palin neologism the best. If she does enter the fray for 2012, look for satirical rewrites on Heart's big hit.

Posted by: auntieslats on July 5, 2009 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK

I understand she is way down in the polls in Alaska. Could this be as simple as they are concerned that she might not be able to win reelection ?, and if she waited until the end of her term to decide not to run for reelection because it looked like she might not win, she would be finished. The meme would be that how can you run for higher office if you can't even win reelection ?

Posted by: Joe Friday on July 5, 2009 at 4:35 PM | PERMALINK

"I know, you really hope she will just go away."

Not me. I hope she will stay on and on. I hope she becomes another of the recognized leaders of the GOP, alongside Cheney and Limbaugh. I hope all Americans come to identify the GOP with Palin.

Posted by: Joel on July 5, 2009 at 4:37 PM | PERMALINK

We elected a dubass once, it could happen again. (Collective we.)

Posted by: ComradeAnon on July 5, 2009 at 4:52 PM | PERMALINK

Just remeber, what makes sense from a national perspective does not necessarily make sense in terms of a primary campaign.

While her resignation certainly finishes her off as a potential president, it does not finish her off as a potential GOP presidential candidate. Given that her two main theorectical opponents at this point are Romney & Huckabee, both of whom engendered little support from the GOP faithful in 2008, I could easily see her winning the 2012 GOP nomination and then getting slaughtered Mondale-style by Obama in the general.

Posted by: mfw13 on July 5, 2009 at 5:04 PM | PERMALINK

Why are we still talking about her? Even as a nutjob, she's not that interesting.

Posted by: NealB on July 5, 2009 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK

A "higher calling?" She'll launch a career as a televangelist, reigning over the Barracuda Broadcasting empire, taking personal and political potshots from a christianist/cult pulpit... Watch out Katy Couric!

Posted by: kp on July 5, 2009 at 5:26 PM | PERMALINK
doesn't want to work as a lame-duck governor

What, exactly is her definition of "lame-duck"?

I thought "lame duck" referred to still being in office when someone else had been elected but hadn't been sworn in.

Under Palin's apparent definition, she was a "lame duck" starting on about Day Four of her term. Thus she could resign whenever the going got tough.

Posted by: Mauimom on July 5, 2009 at 5:50 PM | PERMALINK

I could easily see her winning the 2012 GOP nomination and then getting slaughtered Mondale-style by Obama in the general.

More like Goldwater-style. Remember, back in the day a lot of people thought that ol' Barry was crazy too. Although seemingly unpalatable to the general population, Palin has that knack of rallying the right-wing faithful as Goldwater did. Also, like Goldwater, she seems willing to sacrifice her career for the higher conservative cause, and again like him, she seems to lack the self-awareness to fully realize what she is doing.

The connections conservative activists made in the Goldwater campaign formed the foundation of the GOP for the next 40 years. One difference this time is that there appears to be no Nixon or Reagan waiting in the wings to take advantage.

Posted by: dr sardonicus on July 5, 2009 at 5:56 PM | PERMALINK
I won't call her dumb, but she is incredibly intellectually incurious

It's a good thing she didn't get together with Bush to pass on their fabulous genes!

Posted by: Mauimom on July 5, 2009 at 6:08 PM | PERMALINK

I've got it! I figured it out! She's running for president of North Korea!

Posted by: stevenz on July 5, 2009 at 6:09 PM | PERMALINK

Goldwater was just a symbol of a non-existent conservatism idealism. In the real world, all the states he won were in the Deep South (except his home state of AZ), and represented nothing but backlash at the Voting Rights Act, and the rest of the civil rights revolution then in the pipeline. That's all conservatism was then, and that's all it has been ever since.

But the analogy with Palin is apt: I can see a future GOP drunk on the fantasy of undocumented Mexicans (with their
American children in tow, or maybe abandoned here) stuffed into boxcars bound for Matamoros, Juarez, Tijuana, yet persuading themselves that Sarah Palin's vision of liberty is what really unites them.

Posted by: kth on July 5, 2009 at 6:29 PM | PERMALINK

I think you have misjudged the situation. *All* of you. She's not gonna run for president of USA in 2012 -- that would, indeed, be "politics as usual" and she's said she is very much against that. I think what's coming down is this:

Lt Gov gets sworn in as as Gov on July 25, as announced. On Aug 1, in a huge ceremony, Sara Palin is crowned as The High Priestess and Nurturing Mother of the Independent Republic of Alaska, under a banner which reads: The Only Chick Quitta Hot Enough to Keep the Glaciers Melting and Alaska Blooming and Fertile All Year Round.

Needless to say, the office is for life, with Todd no longer being called "the First Dud", but "The First Implanting Banana". Bristol will be the first in line of succession, with Willow and Piper to follow.

This is the only "scenario" which explains all of Palin's cryptic utterances of Friday and Saturday, as well as her absence from the 4th of July and Alaska's 50tieth anniversary celebrations.

She missed those celebrations, because Alaska won't be a part of the Union much longer; it'll shed the onerous yoke of the Union Jack (which, also, BTW, explains why she's been using it so cavalierly in the recent past). She's doing it "for the country", but the country in question is Alaska (Independent republic of), not USA. The "higher calling" is explained in her new title -- one cannot get any higher than the Highest Priestess (and Nurturing Mother). She'll never be called a lame duck -- a term, quite naturally, abhorrent to someone as sporty as she is -- because the office is for life.

Have I forgotten anything? I don't think so. Oh, yes... The Governor (Parnell?) of the state of Alaska becomes either the First Acolyte and Water Carrier (to the Highest Priestess etc) or is jailed and ice-boarded until he sees the error of his ways.

Posted by: exlibra on July 5, 2009 at 6:38 PM | PERMALINK

PS. I did forget something, after all. The timing. Some of you have said that the 3week distance between her announcement and the date of swearing in of the new Gov means that that whole thing had been planned for a long time and there's no urgency. That's true, though not for the reasons you've propounded (no impending arrest). She needs those 3 weeks to assemble her coronation festivities wardrobe. Not so easy, when you're trying to do it by patronising second-hand outlets.

Posted by: exlibra on July 5, 2009 at 6:45 PM | PERMALINK

The only chance she has at 2012 is as a throwaway. The GOP might actually field her because Obama is most likey a shoe-in. They might not want to waste anyone, and they could very well see here as the perfect loser.

My guess is that she's finished politically. Her future lies in TV.

Posted by: Saint Zak on July 5, 2009 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

One things for sure, Palin will serve as a shiny object for "liberal" and "progressive" bloggers to be distracted by instead of educating, informing, and mobilizing their readers about the issues we face as a country.

Posted by: grinning cat on July 5, 2009 at 7:58 PM | PERMALINK

I personally know nothing about the issues and have yet to share any insight into or analysis of any of them. But I will excoriate all of you until the cows come home for not doing what I'm too lazy and dumb to do myself.

Posted by: dinning cat on July 5, 2009 at 8:01 PM | PERMALINK

Note also, the hypocrisy of a conservative siccing lawyers on people who pick on her - from the people who hate "whiners" who want to sue those who really, literally hurt them in physical ways by malpractice, unsafe working conditions, etc.

Posted by: N e i l B ♪ ♫ on July 5, 2009 at 8:19 PM | PERMALINK

I can definitely believe Palin is walking away when things get tough.

Remember, Boy George went on "vacation" if that's what you want to call it, when the country was facing a financial crisis. In fact, he didn't do anything nor did he say anything for a few weeks.

So yes, this is right up the GOP's alley.

As I said before, the GOP knows how to run an election - but they sure as hell don't know how to govern.

Posted by: annjell on July 5, 2009 at 9:35 PM | PERMALINK

"The Quitta from Wasilla": Nice one. Really nice.

Posted by: Insanity on July 5, 2009 at 9:35 PM | PERMALINK

Failin' Palin quit on the Friday of a Holiday weekend, the traditional news dump day, to avoid and forestall probing questions and media investigation of some scandal.

As media hungry as she is, if she was totally legit and above reproach, she would have waited until Monday so she could dominate the news cyce for the week.

This talk of her lawyer's pre-emptive threat of defamation suits against media questions about investigations makes me beleive thers is very definitely a there, there.

Posted by: Winkandanod on July 5, 2009 at 9:52 PM | PERMALINK

I think even Bill Clinton said something like she is very compelling and should be taken seriously as she has good intuitive skills...

I remember thinking WTF? I continue amazed and disturbed at the wide following she had (has?).
I suppose we like pretty gals with gumption, no matter how stupid, no matter how hollowed out, no matter how mean, no matter how lacking in any true substance.

From day one (the pit-bill with lipstick debut speech) it was clear to me she was off her rocker:
mean, provocative...mocking the "community organizer" who had nothing on her.

Yeah, right.

Posted by: Insanity on July 5, 2009 at 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

Is it possible that the GOP has paid her off to tame the of-late uppity religious right? The republicans are being killed right now by the fundamentalist Christians who are making the promotion of conservative fiscal and economic policy impossible. Perhaps the corporatists have decided that this very buyable stooge will kill off the rising religious right and bring them cowering back into the fold in 2012.

Posted by: Chrenson on July 5, 2009 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

dinning cat: that was awesome.

grinning cat: take a clue.

Posted by: Screamin' Demon on July 5, 2009 at 10:55 PM | PERMALINK

being a complete loon, palin still has as good, maybe even a better chance of capturing the repug nomination for 2012. But actually winning, no way. Even the Big Media plutocrats controlling most of the information Americans receive aren't going to stand for some republican/conservative fringe crackpot candidate get hold of the levers of power.

Posted by: pluege on July 5, 2009 at 11:07 PM | PERMALINK

I for one think *Former* Governor Palin made a brilliant decision!

Posted by: Mitt Romney on July 5, 2009 at 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

I have it on good authority that former Govenor Palin has contracted leprosy. She will announce at a 9 am press conference tomorrow that she will be entering a leper colony immediately following the news conference. The planned duration of her stay there, as well as the delay of all of her other plans, is indefinite.

Posted by: Matt on July 6, 2009 at 1:19 AM | PERMALINK

America must be the only country where lightweights like Sarah Palin are taken seriously at the national level.

Posted by: pj in jesusland on July 6, 2009 at 4:12 AM | PERMALINK

She's positioning for 2016. She needs money, and a lot of it, and fast. She can't marry it, or have someone back her, and still be the one in charge. Therefore, she needs FOX to pay her $20M+ a year for at least five years in order to have a battle chest.

The question is, will she still want to throw away all her new found money, never mind having to go through the whole "face the media" dance again, if she actually builds a battle chest?

Posted by: royalblue_tom on July 6, 2009 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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