July 7, 2009
ARBITRARY ROUND NUMBERS.... A few weeks ago, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) saw the CBO score his health care reform proposal at $1.6 trillion over the next 10 years. He responded by promising to cut the bill by $600 billion, so it would get a $1 trillion price tag.
Why not $1.1 trillion? Or $1.05 trillion? Because, apparently, senators like round numbers. It's completely arbitrary, and it seems foolish to pick a price first and then shape a policy around it, but the drive continues.
The true cost of the Senate's eventual healthcare reform bill must be under $1 trillion if it's to win bipartisan support, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said Monday.
Seemingly setting a barometer for Republican participation in a final deal, Grassley, the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, said that the price tag and the inclusion of a public (or "government-run") option for consumers could be dealbreakers for the GOP.
"It has to be there [at $1 trillion] or under, I think, in order to get a bipartisan agreement," Grassley said during an appearance on Bloomberg News. "I think it has to be there or under to be explainable to the people."
Putting aside the increasingly-painful notion that "bipartisan agreement" is more important than the policy itself, I haven't the foggiest idea what Grassley is talking about. $1 trillion over 10 years is "explainable to the people," but $1.1 trillion or $1.2 trillion isn't?
The same thing happened in February during the stimulus debate. Democrats were on board with the president's proposal, but to overcome Republican obstructionism, Sens. Snowe, Collins, and Specter (a Republican at the time) demanded significant cuts to the size of the recovery package. They were, of course, completely unserious about the process -- they wanted a smaller number, just so they could say it was smaller. They eyed $100 billion in cuts, not because of specific provisions they deemed ineffective, but because $100 billion had a nice ring to it. They were thrilled to fall under an $800 billion ceiling, not with a policy goal in mind, but because $800 billion sounded "reasonable." (Maybe the figure made it more "explainable to the people.")
It's an absurd way to try to govern.
—Steve Benen 10:00 AM
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I don't hear much policy coming out of Washington these days. Everything seems to be intended to make life easier for Kitty Litter and the other airheaded news readers on Cable.
Maybe we are too stupid to govern ourselves.
Posted by: Ron Byers on July 7, 2009 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK
What makes you think they're trying to govern?
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on July 7, 2009 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK
It's an absurd way to try to govern.
And this differs from normal how?
Posted by: TonyB on July 7, 2009 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
Dems make things so complicated. They should just follow the GOP lead on this. Take the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act, for example. When it looked like this bill was going to cost too much, the GOP just sent someone over to CMS to strongarm the actuary. Presto! The bill cost less overnight.
Posted by: steved on July 7, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK
I'm starting to believe the system is irrevocably broken, and it's primarily because of the Senate, a legislative body that is entirely without merit to begin with.
I propose we abolish the Senate.
Posted by: doubtful on July 7, 2009 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
The other reason it's BS is because these are estimates. No one has any idea 10 years out what projected savings will materialize or what other factors (population growth, economy) will increase costs. They could have a bill that projects at 1.000 trillion and it could end up costing 1.050 trillion- oh noes! (And forget about inflation- 1 trillion over 10 years is less than 1 trillion of current dollars.)
Posted by: SP on July 7, 2009 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
A few days ago, Ezra Klein had a post that said something to the effect that the House proposal, in which anybody would be able to purchase health insurance in the proposed exchange at any time, would cost up to $3 trillion--all of which would be paid for by premiums and savings. The plan would pay for itself and is far superior for all Americans, but its doomed by it's size--not because of the American people, but because of Senate Dems and the likes of Grassley.
Frustrating.
Posted by: Chris on July 7, 2009 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK
Why don't we pay these people what they are worth? Some nice round number like $0. Doesn't get any rounder than that.
Posted by: Chopin on July 7, 2009 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK
Don't forget....actually governing is less important than getting reelected.
Posted by: mfw13 on July 7, 2009 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK
It's an absurd way to try to govern.
"Consider a Congressman, then consider an idiot. Ah, but I repeat myself." - Mark Twain, 1872
Plus ca change...
Posted by: TCinLA on July 7, 2009 at 10:31 AM | PERMALINK
"Specter (a Republican at the time)
Was that when the swing seat he was riding happened to be on the right side of the limb?
Posted by: berttheclock on July 7, 2009 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK
It's an absurd way to try to govern.
Perhaps they should follow The Palin Example and quit for the good of the country. After all, it's about Country First.
Posted by: Lifelong Dem on July 7, 2009 at 10:37 AM | PERMALINK
Grassley said during an appearance on Bloomberg News. "I think it has to be there or under to be explainable to the people."
Republican to English translation:
When we attack Dems on the issue, we want to be able to use that scary "t" word so are dittohead base more easily and reflexively understands the horror of it all.
Posted by: oh my on July 7, 2009 at 10:38 AM | PERMALINK
Krugman: "Add in the cost of this expansion [i.e. the H.E.L.P. proposal], and we’re probably looking at between $1 trillion and $1.3 trillion...it’s less than 4 percent of the $33 trillion the U.S. government predicts we’ll spend on health care over the next decade...much of the expense can be offset with straightforward cost-saving measures, like ending Medicare overpayments to private health insurers and reining in spending on medical procedures with no demonstrated health benefits."
Benen is correct. Arbitrary numbers are ridiculous. Health care reform would be an investment, not an expense. There's a big difference.
Posted by: Chris on July 7, 2009 at 10:39 AM | PERMALINK
I think that the messy looking $1.2T is preferable to the neat round $33T that we're already projected to pay for health care in the future? Zero fetishists shouldn't be indulged.
Posted by: Mike from Detroit on July 7, 2009 at 10:40 AM | PERMALINK
Doesn't the HELP committee already have a bill for under a trillion? I thought it was only scored at around 600 billion, with a public option.
It's become clear that the Finance Committee, chaired by health insurance industry buddy Baucus, will do everything in its power to avoid passing real reform. They could just take the HELP proposal and go with that--but Baucus is a complete phoney who claims to have been studying reform for years, yet still can't come up with a plan because everything has to be okayed by his big donors and Republicans who clearly don't want reform.
Posted by: Allan Snyder on July 7, 2009 at 10:46 AM | PERMALINK
TPM has a rundown of the former Baucus staffers who lobby for the "healthcare" industry--
Roger Blauwet, Baucus' tax counsel, who now lobbies for Merck, Wyeth, and other pharmaceutical interests
Jeff Forbes, Baucus' former chief of staff, who represents the interests of several pharmaceutical companies
Scott Olsen, a one-time Baucus policy adviser, has been a lobbyist for Amgen since 2004.
Melissa Wier, Baucus' former chief trade counsel, who lobbies for Assurant and Ace Limited insurance companies
Posted by: Allan Snyder on July 7, 2009 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK
A bipartisan bill means that the Republicans will agree to oppose it.
Posted by: qwerty on July 7, 2009 at 11:03 AM | PERMALINK
Snyder is right - I would just phrase it this way: the fect that Max Baucus is fighting tooth and nail for Insurance companies is NOT arbitrary. More like quid pro quo.
Posted by: Ohioan on July 7, 2009 at 12:39 PM | PERMALINK
Of course, that's a figure that is for 10 years- & a lot of people won't think of it that way. You would never heard the bill for the Department of defense put that way. The Democrats need to start talking dollars per year, if they want to build public support.
Posted by: Eric on July 7, 2009 at 2:28 PM | PERMALINK
We ought to know by now they aren't going to vote for it no matter the cost.
Well, Ben Nelson might.
*sigh*
And it's not like it will really cost a trillion dollars. It's a trillion dollars less than we already spend, dammit.
Posted by: Crissa on July 7, 2009 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK
"...You would never heard(sic) the bill for the Department of Defense put that way." Eric @ 2:28 PM.
The Department of Defense has to operate on a year-by-year budget; supposed to make the military dependent on the civilians.
Posted by: Doug on July 7, 2009 at 9:00 PM | PERMALINK
what i don't get is that the iraq war is at $1 trillion and counting. congress authorized that much for a six year period. you don't hear about whether we can afford that or not. yet, it's somehow an astronomical and unrealistic budget to secure the health of a nation. go figure...
Posted by: marydem on July 7, 2009 at 11:54 PM | PERMALINK
Most of the mainstream media seems to be stressing the cost of the package, not the contents. I'd like to see what's in the package. Has Sen. Baucus a summary available?
Posted by: Bob on July 8, 2009 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK