July 18, 2009
THE CBO'S WORD IS GOSPEL, EXCEPT WHEN IT ISN'T.... This week, the Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf helped push health care reform off track. Republicans seized on CBO cost concerns to argue that the nation simply can't afford the reform proposal.
I've noted on a few occasions lately that Republican lawmakers love the CBO, just so long as the office is telling them what they want to hear. When the CBO challenges GOP assumptions, the office is, in Eric Cantor's words, "losing its credibility."
Sam Stein adds to this with a great example from 2003.
Perhaps the biggest caution flag for treating CBO numbers as gospel -- and one of the more illuminating benchmarks from which to compare the current debate over health care costs -- is the Iraq War.
In October 2003, the CBO was asked to do a study about the costs of the Iraq War. According to varying scenarios of troop deployment the total price tag ranged from $85 billion to $200 billion over a ten-year period. A year later, the projected costs had risen further. Having already spent $123 billion, the CBO was now estimating that the prosecution of both Iraq and Afghanistan would total roughly $1.1 trillion over the subsequent ten years. [...]
By 2007, as the Iraq War had spiraled out of control, and with the surge of troops just beginning to take place, the price tag had jumped even more dramatically. The CBO was now projecting that the government would have to spend as much as $1.7 trillion over the next ten years on Iraq and Afghanistan. With interest, the number rose to $2.4 trillion -- $1.9 trillion of which was for Afghanistan alone.
Certainly, the costs of a war -- especially one as poorly managed as Iraq -- are far more difficult to predict than that for health care legislation. But, at the same time it is worth noting that the 2007 CBO projection for the ten-year cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are roughly double the prospective 10-year cost projections for health care reform.
Now, it's possible that, in 2003, these Republican policymakers simply didn't trust the Congressional Budget Office to provide accurate cost estimates. It's also possible that they simply didn't care -- the war was so important and worthwhile, the U.S. should pay any price and borrow any sum just to make it possible. The war, in other words, was necessary.
Either way, it casts Republican credibility on CBO estimates in an interesting light six years later.
—Steve Benen 11:30 AM
Permalink
| Trackbacks
| Comments (17)
Also something about someone saying they needed some 500K troops to occupy the place and only given 150K + 80K mercs instead, but
Difference is that the CBO's numbers reflect the cost of public HC that is suppposed to help ordinary people not blow'em up real good in a shooting war.
Helping people isn't the GOP's and Blue Dog's way.
Posted by: Former Dan on July 18, 2009 at 11:37 AM | PERMALINK
What really disgusts me about my country is the ease with which we can spend trillions of dollars on ways and means to kill and destroy, but we can't afford health insurance and health care for everyone in the USA. This fact alone, and it's not an observation - it's a fact - is what feeds my pessimism about the future of the USA.
Posted by: rbe1 on July 18, 2009 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
Once again republicans prove that they don't understand basiic math.
Does anyone remember when George bush scoffed at John Kerry during the presidential debates when Kerry said the war would cost well over 300 billion dollars. Bush sarcastically pointed out that it wouldn't cost over 50 billion. Although this isn't close to reality on either persons part it is another example of the inability of republicans to grasp basic math.
Posted by: Gandalf on July 18, 2009 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK
That was different.
Posted by: Standard Republican't Response on July 18, 2009 at 12:32 PM | PERMALINK
And you are surprised Republicans are inconsistent in their positions because ... ?
Posted by: Cal Gal on July 18, 2009 at 12:35 PM | PERMALINK
casts Republican credibility on CBO estimates in an interesting light six years later.
What interesting light? Are we supposed to follow one expensive mistake proposed by Republicans with a different expensive mistake proposed by Democrats?
Posted by: marketeer on July 18, 2009 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK
Wars are temporary.
Entitlements are forever.
Posted by: mwl on July 18, 2009 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
And you are surprised Republicans are inconsistent in their positions because ... ?
Nobody's surprised, but such inconsistency is the bread and butter of Political Animal. Therefore each time it comes up Steve Benen does us the favor of pretending to be confused and earnestly trying to sort out how those well-meaning Republicans could be changing their tune so suddenly.
If he just posted these items as, "GOP INCONSTENCY #294820:...." and then the facts, there'd be little new for us to read.
Posted by: Equal Opportunity Cynic on July 18, 2009 at 1:17 PM | PERMALINK
@mwl,
Ah yes, but the bills and the mental/physical damage done to the servicemen and women from war is pretty much forever. The US STILL hasn't fully paid down the debts incurred by World War 2 nor has started to pay off the 4 Trillion in debt generated by the development of the nuclear arsenal, supersonic flight, missiles, bombers and all those pretty warships built during the Cold War.
You sound like one of those dummies who thinks that the costs of war end when the war does.
Posted by: Former Dan on July 18, 2009 at 1:21 PM | PERMALINK
@ Former Dan
The cost of providing for tens of thousands of Iraq and Afghanistan survivors and disabled veterans is far, far less than the cost of providing for tens of millions of citizens who can't afford, or can't be bothered to buy, their own health insurance.
You seem to believe that the technologies developed during the Cold War have no value. You discount the value of deterrence against our enemies. Those weapons were never used, yet our mere possession of them kept us safe.
"Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." --Sun Tzu
Posted by: mwl on July 18, 2009 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK
@mwl,
The healthcare costs of veterans is much higher than the average person due to the extent of the injuries suffered. Head traumas (leading wound in Iraq and Afghanistan) are notoriously expensive and require extensive rehab. To say this is cheap? It's not, however it is a responsibility that the state must pay for sending these men and women in harm's way.
The fact that if REGULAR people get some kind of care, you won't have as many expensive cancer treatments or extensive surgery and a much healthier overall population. They will become much more productive citizens.
BTW, military investments have a piss poor economic return. Basically you get your money back. Money invested in the civilian sector returns 4-6 times your investment. If the military sector were such an economic benefit then why did the USSR which spent almost 50% of its GDP on military spending economically collapse? Why did Sparta collapse? Why didn't Imperial Japan win in WW2? Why didn't Nazi Germany for that matter?
Why this reluctance to spend on the people? Healthcare really isn't an entitlement, it's a necessity. National security isn't JUST the number of bombs and warships and bombers. It's also the health of your population. Hint, a major reason why the USSR collapsed was due to the poor health of the population from unregulated pollution from industrial/military/nuclear sources. Killed that oh so important economic productivity. Don't take care of your people and they won't take care of the state.
BTW, even Sun Tzu figured that war isn't cheap. The costs of war are ongoing and no one benefits except the weapons makers.
Posted by: Former Dan on July 18, 2009 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK
Let me get this straight ..
The CBO says that the federal budget is unsustainable ...
... and now you show me that the CBO has a history of low-balling spending estimates.
So by extension, the $1 trillion price tag for health care reform should be about $5 trillion ?
One hell of a way to prove your point.
Posted by: Neo on July 18, 2009 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK
@ Former Dan,
The increased cost of care for disabled veterans vs. the general population does not overcome the difference in numbers. In the 2008 budget, the tab for VA (covering all living discharged veterans, not just Iraq and Afghanistan veterans) was $37B, while the tab for Medicare was $325B, the tab for Medicaid was $186B, and SCHIP was $5B. How much more expensive would coverage for all citizens and legal residents be?
I'm sure we agree that we, as a nation, owe it to our veterans to provide whatever health care and rehabilitation they need. Where we differ is in that I believe that the cost of extending equivalent care to the general population is prohibitive, whereas you believe that we can sacrifice military spending to achieve that goal.
Nor do I believe that British- or Canadian-style single-payer health care is the answer; the prospect of having to queue for treatment for progressive diseases like cancer horrifies me. Never mind the prospect of government bureaucrats checking my donation records on opensecrets.org before approving my care...and it's naive in the extreme to believe that such abuses could never occur.
Military investments may return less than civilian investments in the marketplace, yet your civilian investment returns NOTHING if the business in which you invested becomes a smoking crater. Security has a cost, which is offset not by return, but by the lack of loss.
Consider Libya's abandonment of its WMD program. Qaddafi gave it up voluntarily, and we never had to fire a shot (or at least, not since 1981).
Posted by: mwl on July 18, 2009 at 3:40 PM | PERMALINK
Interesting aside to this is that the VA can not bill Medicare for care given to veterans by the VA. A staffer in the enrollment office at Portland's VA, told me a lot of financial problems could be solved if the VA could bill for services of veterans who are on Medicare B. But, as he said, "The government can't bill itself".
Posted by: berttheclock on July 18, 2009 at 3:49 PM | PERMALINK
"...Security has a cost, which is offset, not by return, but by the lack of loss." mwl @ 3:40 PM.
Healthcare has a cost, which is offset, not by return, but by the lack of loss.
Insurance is insurance, whether for fire, war or health.
Dolt.
Posted by: Doug on July 18, 2009 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK
@mwl,
BTW, I happen to be "suffering" under Canadian Healthcare. I have a choice of what doctors I want to see. When I have to deal with an Ministry of Health bureaucrats it is less intrusive than some accountant telling me what I can and can't have (I have friends in the States telling all about it.) As for ques. Well, it's a line up. First come, first serve.
It's like any service.
Everything you RW wingnuts bitch about in our healthcare is exactly what you deal with in yours. Line ups at the emergency rooms. Bureaucrats rationing your healthcare (so that the CEO can make bank). And bureaucrats doing a metaphorical prostate exam on you to have any reason to deny you care. No, single payer isn't perfect, but at least here, we don't have people dying all the time because they don't have insurance.
Posted by: Former Dan on July 18, 2009 at 6:05 PM | PERMALINK
subordinate membership integrating sciencec district dojs paroxetine viable
Posted by: Ambien on September 14, 2009 at 12:37 PM | PERMALINK