I'm looking for somebody to challenge Blue Dog David Scott in the 2010 Democratic primary in Georgia's 13th district. It's a progressive district, and this man is not a good fit. Anybody?

Are any Democrats still protected in Nebraska under the Endangered Species Act? This from a state where a suberb of Omaha was recently placed Number 3 in the best places in America to live. Many commenters, who adored this White Flight 'burb, wrote that just having so many Wal-Marts nearby made it rank so high in "quality of life".

Can understand why finding any Democrat in Indiana would be hard, but, California? Di-Fi has been a DINO for years, yet, not one solid Democratic challenger has been successful against her.

But, yeah, pressure appears to work.

Here's a related question:

Can Republican's in Blue States get primaried from the LEFT?

Lieberman was historically able to get into the senate by running a primary from the RIGHT. So what's to stop an enterprising Republican from winning against Snowe from the left?

A long shot, I know, but just wonder what the odds are; probably pretty low given that the Republican base is more extreme now than it's ever been... but I have no idea what the GOP looks like in Maine...

I'm sure Specter always votes his conscience & in the best interest of those he represents.

It's VERY EXPENSIVE to fund a primary challenge to an incumbent Senator with any chance of success and it takes a unique set of circumstances to pull it off. Most incumbent Senators are entrenched deeper than a nuclear bomb-proof bunker.

1. Olympia Snowe is not EVER going to be challenged because she has around a 70% approval rating in her state. It would be a total waste of money for a primary opponent -- and in the Republican party that challenge would certainly come from the RIGHT, not the left. There ARE NO Republicans to the left of Snowe, they (the Rockefeller wing of the Republican party) all left and became Independents and Democrats long ago.

2. Specter is fleeing from a wrathful right-wing of the Republican party. I hope that Sestak can make a serious challenge, but whether successful, it's at least an even-money chance that right-wing scumbag Pat Toomey would win the election and become a millstone around everybody's neck for at least 6 more years.

PA has the chance of being a reverse Laffey (the right-wing hack who challenged moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chaffe of Rhode Island back in 2006 and who only weakened Chafee to the point he lost the general election).

There's a good chance that Specter's switch robs Democrats of a chance to take this seat in 2010! On the one hand, Sestak is not going to get a lot of help from anywhere -- certainly not financial help of the type he'd need to win.

On the other, Specter is further weakened -- and according to the last polling he's in serious trouble already. He's alienated all Republican voters without winning much sympathy yet from Democrats.

He did what he needed to survive, since he was certain to lose the Rep. primary -- but it may only have been a stay of execution after all.

That would set the country back significantly. PA is a sufficiently liberal state that it should have two outright liberal Senators.
3.

So what's to stop an enterprising Republican from winning against Snowe from the left?

The fact that Snowe is pretty much the leftmost extreme of the GOP?

I think pressure almost always works. Primary Ben Nelson if you can; one thing it'll do is put his stances on issues of concern to Dems in sharper relief. He may not have to worry about progressive Dems' voting against him in November, but he does have to worry about them staying home. And more of them will stay home if they're more aware of how he's been voting against them.

Not that I think there's much chance of Nelson's facing a primary challenger. Ditto Evan Bayh, since the Dems didn't even field someone to run against Lugar in 2006.

3. Diane Finestein. She's a drag on the party and CA should definitely have a much more liberal Senator!

But CA is the most expensive state in the union to campaign in, and a primary challenge in that state is the most difficult attempt of all!

That's mostly why nobody has bothered. They'd get no support from the national party and fund-raisers and unless they had around $8 or 10 million to devote to the election they'd lose.

That's why Ned Lamont was so dangerous to Lieberman. He was rich so he could self-finance as much as he wanted. Plus, CT is a small state so it's not as hard for an outsider to get personally known to the voters in a reasonable time.

In CA that's simply impossible. A Ned Lamont could never make a dent in a state that large. No amount of personal campaigning could overcome a lack of name recognition. A primary challenge would come to resemble a general election campaign in cost and intensity.

Scroll on down in Nate's post to the second chart -- the one with four columns, pre/post poll showing Toomey ahead, pre/post Sestak challenge -- and Specter's across-the-board untrustworthiness is even clearer. Ol' guy slides around like mercury.

I think it has worked with former Blue Dog Gillibrand in NY. I still won't vote for her but she has been much more liberal.

Would it be possible (without running afoul of election laws) to set up an organization for the purpose of pre-funding challengers - that is, raising a war chest to fund progressive challengers to the Ben Nelsons and Evan Bayhs of the world if and when viable challengers arose?

If someone with progressive cred and basic smarts about elections (e.g. Markos Moulitsas, Matt Stoller) were to start up such an organization, I'd be ready with my checkbook. Just sayin'.

If reelected, what are the odds that Spectre would resume his rethugnican voting patterns?

My estimate is somewhere above 90%!

If Pa. is such a liberal state, why did 'man-on-dog' boy ever get elected? If Pa. is such a liberal state, why would Tomey even have a chance? Is it because Pa. is liberal in the east and West Va. conservative in the middle & west?

Here in Indiana, we had a meeting of all of the progressives in the state last week. All 3 of us agreed that Bayh must go.

The problem is money. The Republicans won't even challenge Bayh because of his giant reserve.

Let's get some real campaign finance reform with caps on spending and a requirement to donate/return any excess cash, and you'll see more primary challenges, greater access to democracy, and far better results.

Of course, the oligarchy will never allow that.

Should Lieberman and Sphincter tack left to retain their seats and win, they then have another 6 year lease to jibe right leaving progressive donkeys banging their heads and saying "we sure didn't see that coming".

hmm -- is Snowe's approval rating still that high? Both Maine senators have seen their approvals erode after what they did during the Bush era (& for all that talk of them being "leftward" leaning, they squawked a lot but generally voted in lockstep with their insane Republican brethren). At least amongst certain Mainers -- the city folk & the highly educated -- both women are held in disdain. I hear a lot of "I'll never vote for either one of them ever again" and I know Collins's re-election last year was a foregone conclusion, but she still didn't put up the numbers she had in the past.

I'd love to see Dems representing Maine in the Senate. Maine is a pretty blue state in most respects, but also a bit quirky. (see Perot, Ross)

The thing about the Blue Dogs and so-called centrists in the Senate is that a primary challenge is just a temporary solution. Actually beating them would be a more permanent solution.

If you haven't read it yet, Krugman has a great column today about the hypocrisy of the House's Blue Dog Coalition.

"It's tough, for example, to threaten Sen. Ben Nelson with a primary challenge from the left. He represents a pretty "red" state (Nebraska), and for all I know, Nelson may actually like a primary opponent to help prove that he's not part of the Democratic mainstream."

He probably doesn't have a prayer, but there's always Scott Kleeb.

All this does is prove why Democrats need to vote in Sestak, so we have a real, honest, reliable Democrat there. Does anyone think that Snarlin' Arlen the Traitor wouldn't go back to his old ways (after all, he's got a 44 year long record on this) just as soon as he was "safe for six"?

I'd like to add a name to Feinstein and Bayh. Rep Charlie Melancon (???-LA). He can stay in the house as long as he wants, but he doesn't want.
He'd like to move up to the Senate. David Vitter (R-LA) is vulnerable (see your post above). There are no other halfway credible Democrats in the running.

Right now Melancon maximizes his chances of becoming Senator Melancon if he moves right as fast as he can. A credible candidate a bit to his left would make him much much less upset about, say, bypassing the House Energy and commerce committee (he could vote not on health care reform on the floor. He voted no on Waxman Markey and it passed).

At the moment, the only hope is see is to convince Stormy Daniels to switch parties, but there must be some non reactionary not totally corrupt Democrat in Louisiana ... anyone ... Bueler ?

I think that Scott Kleeb could mount a formidable primary challenge to Nelson. But the result would likely be to drive Nelson from the party. The situation would be the mirror image of Spector's in PA. Overall this might be a good thing but it has to be accompanied by aggressive campaigns in states where Dems can pick up a senate seat.

Is this perhaps also due to a turnover in his staff ?
Or is it still the same folks ?

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