What are the chances that center-right Dems...would deny reform an up-or-down vote...

Oh, I'd put those chances right around 100%. They know who their bosses really are. Besides, someone will just place an anonymous hold on the bill. Those are like Harry Reid's Kryptonite.

"...Harry Reid doesn't want [Senate Democrats to kill health-care reform]. His place in the leadership -- not to mention history -- might not be able to survive that."

Reid's place in the leadership should not survive regardless of whether reform passes. Such reform would happen in spite of him, not because of him.

One thing to remember is that both chambers will have to reconcile the final bill; passing a weaker version in the Senate is not necessarily a death knell for needed reform if a reconciliation can fix the obvious corporate fealty problems emerging in the Senate. The key is getting a good final bill to the floor of the Senate where the common good might prevail.

Where IS President Obama ??

He's been Strangely silent and passive on HCR

DOES HE WANT A PUBLIC OPTION ?
Is it NEEDED ?

President Obaman has to get out in front of HCR
HE has to exert leadership

WHY OS SILENT ??

Tim Kaine has been an abomination as DNC Chair
WHERE IS HE ??
Howard Dean would ANSWER Republican LIES ?
What's Kaine up to ?

Enough Bi-Partisan !!!

"It will put tremendous pressure on the Senate to follow suit. "

Surely you jest. I'll have you know, SUH, that this August body, this gentleman's club where mortal enemies are called my dear, DEAR friend from the other side of the aisle, never feel pressure. Why the very idea of some whippersnapper daring to suggest PRESSURE, well, harumph, egad. I suggest the absence of a quorum. . .

I agree the odds look better. What might derail it? A crypto-Christian bloc in the Senate that sticks together in a non-partisan way, as long as it's "right".

I'm talking about the Family, recently in the news for running the C St. "bawdy" house that's been tied to John Ensign, Mark Sanford, and Chip Pickering. As I read Jeff Sharlet's book about the Family, and realize that not only are "responsible Republicans" like Grassley and Enzi members, but so are Dems like Ben and Bill Nelson, Kent Conrad, etc (not all listed int he book, but have been IDed as such online).

With others like Mark Pryor and Evan Bayh as known "friends of the Family".

If healthcare reform does go down, I won't just be blaming the insurance industry--I'll be pinning it to the Family as well...

Quite apart from the obvious problems with the Senate noted in the above comments, what are the chances that Kennedy will survive until September or October? What is the current health status of Bryd? How will their succesors be put in office and how soon could that happen? I think you have to figure there are 58 Democrats some of whom are very weak kneed and figure that you are probably going to need at least 2 and maybe as many as 5 Republicans for a cloture vote.

Ezra is always painfully naive. Is he under the impression that the White House "doesn't know" that Baucus, Bayh and others are determined to kill health care? That they've already done enough to piss off the White House and the progressive left for several centuries? Its obvious that these people believe--they know, in fact--that there is simply no price to be paid for destroying meaningful health care and health insurance reform. If they knew that they wouldn't have dared be so obstructionist to start with.

The idea that if it gets to a vote we will win because Senator X doesn't want to stick his head up above the crowd is nonsense. The Senators clearly feel they are in pretty good company right now and they won't hesitate a second in voting against any bill that looks any good.

aimai

Pollyanna with cash and a kick-ass attitude...

There's reason for at least some optimism that the House -- with enough Blue Dogs on board -- will pass a bill after the August recess.

Don't let optimism get in the way of your anger.
The only reason we have got this far is because a million of us have written emails and contributed cold hard meaningful kick ass cash...

Want to see the blue dogs turn tail and get their asses wagged?
Me too.
If you are not on board, get on board...

Does all this squawking from Max Baucus and Kent Conrad mean the public option dead? It seems the "moderate" Democrats aren't really worried about cost control. If they were, they'd support a public option. There only concern seems to be making sure private insurers don't have to lower their costs.

I do wonder how some of these people sleep at night.

Some serious threats will need to be made somewhere along the road. Something along the lines of "I will break you politically . . ."

As he is doing, Obama also needs to continue to go into these legislators' districts and talk directly to the constituents. He also needs to go on local media and make his case. Pressure needs to be brought both from above and from the ground up.

The campaign for the presidency won't end until this one is put to bed intact.

MSierra,

Really, what are you on about?

Where IS President Obama ??

He is all over the tv, traveling all over the country doing townhalls on health care reform. If you watched television news anytime in the past 72 hours, I hardly see how you could have missed him.

DOES HE WANT A PUBLIC OPTION ?
Is it NEEDED ?

He has stated many, many times that it is needed and that he does want it. Again, if you are paying attention to what has been going on with this issue anytime over the past few months, this is not something you could miss.

President Obaman has to get out in front of HCR
HE has to exert leadership

Ok. So what specifically is he not doing that you feel that he should be doing? What exactly would count as exerting leadership in your opinion?

The bottom line is this: there are certainly legitimate criticisms that one could level with respect to Obama's handling of this issue but accusations of silence and/or an unwillingness to get out in front of the issue is laughably off base. The Obama administration has made it abundantly clear to everyone who is paying even minimal attention that this is his top legislative priority and he has hardly spoken a full sentence in months in which he didn't talk about the need for health care reform. Your complaints are misdirected at best.

How many of these senators have significant insurance companies headquartered in their states? Nelson and Lieberman for sure. Others?

Follow the money.

terry:

Remember the reconciliation rules that apply to HCR. If triggered, they do not allow Republicans to filibuster.

Democrats need only hold on to 50 votes to pass health care reform legislation. Vice President Joe Biden would be happy to provide the 51st vote. Not a single Republican vote would be needed.

Republicans are crying foul and rending garments over the possibility that reconciliation will be used, no matter that they used it many times during the Bush years to ram through their agenda. It'll probably come down to it being used. There will be vigorous debate--which Dems should be happy to have--but no filibuster.

terraforma, I do not purport to be an expert on Congressional procedure, but do not both houses have to pass a bill for it to go to reconciliation conference and is there not a risk--even without a public option provision- that the GOP will filibuster? I mean they know that the reconciliation conference can put public option back in. Also while I realize that there would be no pay go requirements on the reconciliation bill, can not the Senate Republicans filibuster the reconciliation bill? No snark intended, I really do not know. If we only need 50 + Biden, do we really have concerns about 8 to 10 Democrats bolting? I always thought there were only about 5

terry:

No snark taken. My understanding is that reconciliation means the Democrats will have the ability to pass health reform with just fifty votes rather than the (historically inaccurate) sixty required to break inevitable filibustering by Republican opponents.

This means that they do not need Republican support at all, which has made me wonder about all of the hubub this week about vacillating members of various committees w.r.t. public option and other features. I understand that particular committees have been having problems, but I also read somewhere that the leadership, if they so choose, can entirely bypass a committee(s) altogether if they want to and take a bill to the floor. But brass testicles appear to only belong to the Republicans these days.

Someone please chime in if any of this is wrong?

Who wants to step up and be our Tommy Douglas?

Obama realizes that first...he must get a bill out of committee before anything else can be done. Also, the bill will meet the requirements to be able to be passed through the reconciliation process where a filibuster cannot be used.

We must push for a strong 'public option' in any bill if we want real reform. In time (and everyone knows this) the public option will lead to single payer not for profit. That's why millions daily are being spent to block a public option (or try to turn it into co-ops than can be destroyed by private ins.).

I suggest the Senate vote on their bills first. The House needn't be the only politicians sticking their necks out, as they did with the Cap & Trade bill.

Ever watch a freight train get started? There are spins and smoke and almost no movement. But when that sucker gets some inertia and starts moving, stay off the tracks because noting will stop it.

Exactly, Bob. And it backs up first, too!