August 26, 2009
KENNEDY'S UNFINISHED WORK.... Obviously, under the circumstances, much of the political world will honor Sen. Edward Kennedy today, and mourn his passing. It's unlikely we'll hear politicians or people in positions of authority openly speculating on the implications of the Senate's greatest lawmaker passing before the cause of his life could be completed.
But it won't be long before talk of Kennedy's unrivaled legacy shifts to Kennedy's unfinished work. Greg Sargent noted this morning, "It's tempting to imagine that his death could prod the Senate into action on health care reform. It would be an extraordinary, and perhaps fitting, historical irony if Kennedy's death provided the final moral impetus to accomplish one of the primary causes to which he dedicated his life."
It's tempting, indeed. Noam Scheiber wrote over the weekend, before any of us knew any details about the senator's condition, about the likely political consequences of the Liberal Lion's passing.
...If Kennedy were to pass away in the next few months, the Senate math on any health care vote would almost certainly get easier, not harder. For one thing, it would single-handedly make the magic number 51 votes, not 60, since it would be suicidal for the GOP to filibuster the culmination of the last Kennedy brother's lifelong crusade. Beyond that, I suspect the coverage of Kennedy's death would silence healthcare reform critics and boost proponents in a way that netted at least a couple of wavering moderates -- so clearing the 51-vote threshold wouldn't be a problem. Heck, you might even see Utah Republican (and longtime Kennedy friend) Orrin Hatch back in the reformist camp.
So all the maneuvering around Kennedy's hypothetical replacement strikes me as unnecessary at best and possibly even counterproductive, since it could only detract from what would otherwise be a powerful (and authentic) emotional outpouring in the event of Kennedy's passing.
I would love to believe this is correct. Honestly, I would. And it's possible that honorable lawmakers are capable of more humanity than I give them credit for.
Time will tell.
—Steve Benen 9:25 AM
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I suspect the coverage of Kennedy's death would silence healthcare reform critics
This shows a much higher opinion of Wingnuttia than I think is warranted. These folks have been lying shamelessly and ceaselessly, and calling reform supporters nazis. Also, they hated Ted Kennedy with a passionate fury. That they'll show any decency now is something I'll believe if I see it.
Posted by: jimBOB on August 26, 2009 at 9:32 AM | PERMALINK
And I believe that the sun will rise in the West tomorrow morning!
Posted by: SadOldVet on August 26, 2009 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK
possible? yes.
am i holding my breath? no.
Posted by: mellowjohn on August 26, 2009 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK
"it would be suicidal for the GOP to filibuster the culmination of the last Kennedy brother's lifelong crusade."
HAR!
Posted by: Go, Sestak on August 26, 2009 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK
Oh I think if Max Baucus has a chance, he can manage to drag things out past Christmas, by which time Kennedy's memory will have faded. Besides, what provides a better legacy to Kennedy than a health care co-op?
Posted by: dweb on August 26, 2009 at 9:40 AM | PERMALINK
What is Noam! smoking? Hatch was asked this specific question regarding voting as Kennedy would have a couple weeks ago and he launched into a non-answer about the socialism of government health care.
Posted by: SP on August 26, 2009 at 9:47 AM | PERMALINK
On what planet is Scheiber living? Wingnuttia won't even pause to take note of Kennedy's death other than to break out the snide barbs. There are no honorable lawmakers on the Repub side of the aisle.
Posted by: ckelly on August 26, 2009 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK
Steve. I am sorry, but the soulless men and women that are the current GOP will remind us of Kennedy's failings. They will be silent on his accomplishments. And, oh yes, he was a .... liberal. No, you will not get anything from the GOP. what you may get, and i mean may, is some of the Dems growing a pair. Truth be told, if you can remain without balls when people are dying and suffering from lack of meaningful and accessible health care, i am not sure what the death of the liberal lion can do for you.
eric
Posted by: eric on August 26, 2009 at 9:49 AM | PERMALINK
The Senatorial Sheep on both sides will put on long faces and make windy speeches. The Dems will be secretly relieved, the Republicans secretly gleeful. Both sides will collaborate to shit all over Kennedy's last project.
Posted by: Dennis-SGMM on August 26, 2009 at 9:49 AM | PERMALINK
Caught Kellie O'Donnell talking about Kennedy early this A.M. She said that if Kennedy could have participated in the negotiations over reform, he would have caved on the public option and all would be well. I didn't follow Kennedy all that closely, but from hearing stuff about him today, "proud to be liberal" "held on to liberal principles when they were out of fashion". Some how I'm just not sure that follows. Sounded more to me like he'd get the centrists to cave on the public option. Is Kellie an escapee from Fox?
Posted by: CAINMI on August 26, 2009 at 9:50 AM | PERMALINK
I suspect "prayer and fasting will defeat health care" Michele Bachmann will interpret this event as having god on speed dial.
Posted by: Chopin on August 26, 2009 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK
I am expecting someone from the right to claim Sen. Kennedy's "timely death is a sign from God that health care reform is evil and should not be allowed to pass." Or some such vile comment claiming to know what God wants. I hope it will not come from a Senator, but Jim DeMinted or Tom Coburn-in-hell are possibilities.
Posted by: jpeckjr on August 26, 2009 at 9:54 AM | PERMALINK
Has Noam been paying attention to Republicans the past 8+ years? They will shamelessly still filibuster reform. They will accuse Dems of politicizing Kennedy's death (a la Wellstone) if they point out that healthcare reform was his life's work and the best way to honor him would be to pass reform. It may however help to unify the Dem caucus and maybe Snowe and Collins will vote to overcome the filibuster out of respect. However, I will be absolutely shocked if the GOP gets out of the way of reform and allows for a floor vote without a fight.
Posted by: Jason on August 26, 2009 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
Does this guy remember what Repubs did after another liberal senator, Wellstone, died? Keep dreaming, dude. They won't even wait til the memorial service is over before returning to their usual attacks, lies, and smears.
But if it means that Dems will have more cause to pass a half-decent bill through reconciliation, then that would be good. The notion that any Repubs will join in just out of good will is completely insane based on their long history of the complete opposite behavior.
Posted by: Allan Snyder on August 26, 2009 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK
...it's possible that honorable lawmakers are capable of more humanity than I give them credit for.
By definition, honorable lawmakers are capable of humanity. Now, if we could only find some...
Posted by: Grumpy on August 26, 2009 at 9:58 AM | PERMALINK
I'm with the prevailing opinion here. There's too much riding on killing health care for Republicans to go wobbly now. The consequences of a moment of emotion (if any of them might actually be guilty of that) might be a success for Obama and weakening of the health insurance industry's deathgrip on the voters, not to mention the end of Big Pharma dictating drug prices like they were some kind of healthcare OPEC.
There'll be murmurs of condolence, surely, but no slackening of the Republican push to defeat healthcare reform.
Posted by: Mark on August 26, 2009 at 9:58 AM | PERMALINK
Also, they hated Ted Kennedy with a passionate fury.
But right now that increases their toxicity, it doesn't make them more effective.
Kennedy's passing just made this personal for the senators who worked with him. They'll pass an act with his name on it.
Posted by: jenniebee on August 26, 2009 at 9:58 AM | PERMALINK
Well LBJ rammed through his agenda over Kennedy's dead body (and because of it). Obama won't do that but I wish he would.
Posted by: MNPundit on August 26, 2009 at 9:59 AM | PERMALINK
ted kennedy was a flawed man, but a good political leader.
everyone knows that universal health care was his prime and life long political goal.
i, too, doubt that the clown car senate will rise to any necessary amount of decency to carry kennedy's goal into the everyday lives of all americans.
Posted by: neill on August 26, 2009 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK
When Bobby Kennedy was killed, Nixon won the election. When Paul Wellstone was killed in the plane crash, Norm Coleman won. With the Coleman win, the Republicans took over the control of the Senate, and we went to war.
Talk radio in Denver is retelling the bridge jokes. I agree that the Kennedy death will be characterized as a divine sign to destroy health care reform and defeat the democrats in 2010.
I am glad he lived to die a natural death. R.I.P.
Posted by: JoanneinDenver on August 26, 2009 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK
Pretty rare for me to recommend anything from the WaPo but here it is :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101778_pf.html
Posted by: Polaris on August 26, 2009 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK
neill:
"ted kennedy was a flawed man..."
Well, who isn't "flawed"?
Posted by: Lee on August 26, 2009 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
Like any Republican Senator is going to be harmed in their primary fight by taking a dump on Kennedy's life's work.
Posted by: norbizness on August 26, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK
if this makes the reconciliation route more likely, so be it
start reconciliation immediately once Congress is in session. Enough with the bipartisanship bullshit. If Obama thinks this still interests the public, he's got his head up his ass. What people really respect is toughness and decisiveness. If Obama jams health insurance reform through, then he wins (he'll be seen as a strong leader) and the Democrats win (a good bill will guarantee Dem support for years).
Posted by: sjw on August 26, 2009 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK
Boy, Noam is looking at the Republicans with some mighty strong beer goggles!
Posted by: david in norcal on August 26, 2009 at 10:11 AM | PERMALINK
Up until a Kennedy got sick he was the defacto drunk politician the right fell back on when any of their party did anything stupid related to drinking, like Clinton is with sex. If there was respect for the man, it was well camouflaged.
Now, his death is going to somehow inspire the right? Ya, OK. This changes nothing, if anything some might jump on the other side because the Lion is no longer in the jungle.
Posted by: ScottW on August 26, 2009 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK
Let's see, the GOP will refrain from filibustering a bill out of respect for Kennedy.
"Time will tell."
What planet are you living on? You don't need a freakin' second to figure out that the GOP is laughing that anyone on the Left would even consider that.
Posted by: g. powell on August 26, 2009 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK
#1 nailed it. But Obama will succeed.
Posted by: waldo on August 26, 2009 at 10:17 AM | PERMALINK
One more thing, let's call this legislation the 'Ted Kennedy Health Care Reform Package', then we can see who respects the man's life long work.
Hatch ?? Are you fucking kidding me ??
Posted by: ScottW on August 26, 2009 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK
I would love to think that the passage of health reform would be easier, I guess I have gotten so soured on the republicans, they hold no respect for Senator Kennedy, they only respect the almighty dollar and their paymasters in the health industry.
Posted by: JS on August 26, 2009 at 10:19 AM | PERMALINK
#1 nailed it. But Obama will succeed.
Posted by: waldo on August 26, 2009 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK
Forget republicans. Will this get any Blue Dogs to relent?
What about Holy Joe?
Posted by: Jinchi on August 26, 2009 at 10:29 AM | PERMALINK
Unfortunately, the phrase "honorable lawmakers" leaves out every single Republican.
I haven't checked in with any of the wingnuts today. Are they using any other proper nouns than "Chappaquidick?"
Posted by: Roddy McCorley on August 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM | PERMALINK
We're talking about legislative bodies that can't even pass reasonable gun and explosives legislation after Oklahoma City and a gazillion school and workplace shootings. What the hell reason is there to believe that one death is going to make a difference to them when right-wing political correctness has already dictated the outcome?
Besides, the wingnuts don't see the same Ted Kennedy you and I do. This is their Ted Kennedy.
Posted by: Steve M. on August 26, 2009 at 10:42 AM | PERMALINK
I'd be happy if even the Democrats could unite to honor Kennedy by passing a health care reform package.
Posted by: David W. on August 26, 2009 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
Yeah, Noam's smoking crack for sure.
But you know what? Senators shouldn't be voting, pro or con, for something this important based on Kennedy (or anyone else) dying. That's just not taking your responsibilities seriously. Either the proposal will be worth supporting or it won't. Kennedy's death doesn't change that.
Posted by: Glenn on August 26, 2009 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
Scheiber's right about the math getting easier, but not for the reason he thinks. With 99 senators, you still need 60 for cloture, and Scheiber's gone bananas if he thinks that out of "comity" or "respect" that a republican is going to cross lines.
The math is going to be easier because now, reconciliation is the only option.
Posted by: rfs on August 26, 2009 at 11:22 AM | PERMALINK
I think I sort of know what my mother meant when she said the passing of Franklin D. Roosevelt was the death of an age, that for so many he was almost the only President they had known.
Being a political nut at a very young age, I remember the first time I saw and hearde JFK - it was when he spoke at the Democratic Convention in 1956 to nominate Estes Kefauver for Vice-President. And then there was my first political activity as a teenager, sticking flyers in mail boxes for him in 1960. And then there was the shock of his assassination.
I admired the way his brother finally stepped up in 1968 and I hoped he'd win - I think this would be a very, very different country if that death had not happened then. I'll always remember standing in Union Square in San Francisco in May 1968 and hearing him say "Some men look at things the way they are and ask why; I look at things that never were, and ask why not?"
I think Ted Kennedy is probably the supreme example one can find of someone overcoming his weaknesses and frailties to act in the strength of convictions.
There's been a Kennedy brother to look up to and admire for courage and convictions for as long as I can remember in my life. We're not going to see a phenomenon like the Kennedy brothers again, for a long time if ever.
And sadly, I look at the fact that the deaths of JFK and RFK propelled progress that might not have happened otherwise - the civil rights legislation of 1964 and 19165 that would never have happened, the reforms of the Democratic Party in the wake of 1968 that ended up allowing Barack Obama to be President (among other things RFKs death affected). It would be sad to think it took Ted Kennedy dying to get health care reform, but I suspect he'd say it was worth the price.
This is truly a different country with them now all gone.
Posted by: TCinLA on August 26, 2009 at 11:34 AM | PERMALINK
I think Kennedy's death changes the media dynamic, not the math. The GOP does not want reform in any form.
However, we are going to have days of retrospectives and tributes to Kennedy with plenty of discussion of his pet cause of universal health coverage. It is going to knock the teabaggers off the air and that will help the cause. It also gives Obama time to recalibrate his message and get back on the offensive.
The bill will be renamed in Kennedy's honor and Obama can use the "tribute" in his speeches and behind the scenes when talking with wavering Dems.
Posted by: John M on August 26, 2009 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK
Kennedy's passing just made this personal for the senators who worked with him. They'll pass an act with his name on it.
Unfortunately, said act will effectively spit on Teddy's grave. Unless Harry Reid grows a set, and he subs Chuck Schumer in for Baucus, etc.
And some of you are putting a lot more faith in reconciliation than it merits. Unless Reid grows a set etc etc.
Posted by: SFAW on August 26, 2009 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK
I suspect the coverage of Kennedy's death would silence healthcare reform critics
This shows a much higher opinion of Wingnuttia than I think is warranted.
No. Here's what will happen: they'll claim that whatever healthcare plan comes up for a vote is a betrayal of Kennedy's legacy, and that Democrats have sullied his good name with partisanship.
Seriously. This will happen. It's exactly the type of jujitsu they employed after Wellstone's death.
Posted by: ibc on August 26, 2009 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK
Sadly, it appears that the drive to return to power by whatever means necessary, no matter how destructive to the country and any surviving remnants of their souls, is all that motivates the current GOP.
Posted by: karen on August 26, 2009 at 11:57 AM | PERMALINK
it's possible that honorable lawmakers are capable of more humanity than I give them credit for.
That's a logically correct statement -- in the same sense that "it's possible that agile pigs are capable of dancing for the Bolshoi Ballet."
But show me the agile pig.
Posted by: Peter Principle on August 26, 2009 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK
First it is important to point out that Kennedy would not have voted in favor of "death panels" or "killing grandma." Therefore, voting in favor of a bill that does these things would in fact dishonor Kennedy's life and legacy; not to mention, it would be "political suicide." Alternatively, republicans would have to admit the attacks on health care reform were either honest mistakes on their part (incompetence) or cynical politics (dishonesty). This brings us to a larger issue. To support any health care reform at all is to admit that quite possibly the "market" does not garuntee the best possible outcomes. Such an admission would fundamentally discredit the rationale used by the republican party in defense of what it has done and not done for over thity years. In reality, that is probably a good thing, but they will never admit it. The only support to be expected is from those individuals corrupt enough to put aside their professed ideology to vote in favor of the special interests who fund their campaigns. Unfortunately, there are a number of these in the democratic caucus as well. The question remains as to whether we end up with a bill that is anything other than a massive subsidy to the insurance industry.
Posted by: Jason on August 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
No chance this helps. No Republican Senator will vote for the Honorable Senator Kennedy. They made Senator Sherrod Brown come back early from his mother's funeral to break the 60 vote barrier to pass the stimulus bill.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/14/us/politics/14web-stim.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss
The current cast of Republican Senators would likely wait until Senator Kennedy himself came back early from his own funeral before they would vote in his stead.
Posted by: Stlinquirer on August 26, 2009 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK
I'm nowhere near stupid enough to think this is possible.
Posted by: Punditus Maximus on August 26, 2009 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK
I think it would be political suicide for the GOP to embrace Limbaugh as its de facto party leader, to espouse birtherism and "death panels" as legitimate critiques of the current administration and its policies, to continue espousing Reaganomics and the aptly named Laffer Curve after those ideas have led to the greatest economic meltdown since the Great Depression. I think it would be politiical suicide for them to routinely trade in blatantly ,easily fact-checked lies and embroil the US in the greatest strategic fiasco in its military history.
That's an awful lot of suicide for one party to have been committing the last eight years or so, considering they don't seem to have succeeded yet.
Posted by: DrBB on August 26, 2009 at 2:04 PM | PERMALINK
How does a minority party out of power in the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate, commit "suicide"? By invoking the filibuster?
Because they believe their obstructionism in 1992-94 didn't help them at all?
What is Noam smoking?
Posted by: Whispers on August 26, 2009 at 11:21 PM | PERMALINK