Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 2, 2009

THEY'RE STILL GETTING IT BACKWARDS.... I sometimes get the sense that congressional Republicans want to appear ridiculous on economic policy. It would explain a few things.

When the economy was in free-fall and there was talk of a depression, GOP lawmakers recommended tax cuts and a spending freeze. Fortunately, they were in the minority. More recently, the same Republicans who trashed the economic recovery package they opposed en masse suddenly began touting the ways in which it's helping their constituents.

At the same time, however, they're calling for the repeal of the stimulus, just as the economy starts to turn the corner. In July, Sen. Jon Kyl (R) of Arizona, the #2 Republican in the Senate, said he'd like to see all stimulus efforts come to end -- wrap up the pending contracts and then stop recovery investment altogether. This morning, Rep. Eric Cantor (R) of Virginia, the #2 Republican in the House, said the same thing, calling the cancelling of the stimulus "the responsible thing" to do.

Yes, this is the same Eric Cantor who's bragged about the benefits of the recovery efforts in his district.

The evidence of how wrong the Republicans are on this is hard to ignore.

The government has funneled about $60 billion of the $288 billion in promised tax cuts to U.S. households, while about $84 billion of the $499 billion in spending has been paid. About $200 billion has been promised to certain projects, such as infrastructure and energy projects.

Economists say the money out the door -- combined with the expectation of additional funds flowing soon -- is fueling growth above where it would have been without any government action.

Many forecasters say stimulus spending is adding two to three percentage points to economic growth in the second and third quarters, when measured at an annual rate. The impact in the second quarter, calculated by analyzing how the extra funds flowing into the economy boost consumption, investment and spending, helped slow the rate of decline and will lay the groundwork for positive growth in the third quarter -- something that seemed almost implausible just a few months ago. Some economists say the 1% contraction in the second quarter would have been far worse, possibly as much as 3.2%, if not for the stimulus.

For the third quarter, economists at Goldman Sachs & Co. predict the U.S. economy will grow by 3.3%. "Without that extra stimulus, we would be somewhere around zero," said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist for Goldman.

"The signs of the stimulus are there," Allen L. Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics, a forecasting firm in New York, said a couple of weeks ago. "Government -- federal, state and local -- is helping take the economy from recession to recovery. I think it's the primary contributor."

The Economic Policy Institute's Josh Bivens responded to the recent GDP numbers by noting, "The marked improvement in this quarter relative to last is largely due to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act."

Here's a tip for future reference: if you want the country to prosper, do the exact opposite of whatever Eric Cantor recommends on economic policy.

Steve Benen 10:40 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (27)
 
Comments

They need to just change the name of the party to the Reverse-Cassandra party. It would be unfair to label only Eric Cantor as THE Reverse-Cassandra when there are so many others worthy of the title - Bill Kristol, etc.

Posted by: Jennifer on September 2, 2009 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK

This is not a recovery, what happens when the gov. stops sending all this money? You all know the answer.

Posted by: Rick on September 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM | PERMALINK

the obama administration is tentative enough (and filled with enough stepford-economists) and the Repugnants are just insanely sociopathological enough to drag out this miserable economy and continue to blood-suck working people (and wishin'-tuh-work people) like leeches and ticks, and peace and prosperity will hardly be a memory before anything substantial is done.

we need, god damn the whole fookin' Village,
• another stimulus bill,
• a guaranteed employment law, and
• a save-our-mortgages program...

if i sound bitter... it's because i am.

Posted by: neill on September 2, 2009 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

Interesting how the WSJ is attempting an orchestrated fallback here. A month ago the party line was that the stimulus would fail and no growth would occur: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121798022246515105.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

Now the party line is that growth is occurring, but it isn't because of the stimulus. Gotta love the "Some economists argue..." paragraph - it emphasizes a viewpoint that receives little support elsewhere in the article. I imagine an editor inserted that at the last moment in the interests of "balance".

Posted by: Adam on September 2, 2009 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

In the interest of being completely accurate, please delete the last three words of that last sentence.

Carry on.

Posted by: harpmick on September 2, 2009 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

By that I mean, of course, "on economic policy".

Posted by: harpmick on September 2, 2009 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Yo Rick,

The really good stuff (targeted spending on infrastructure and new growth technologies) is just starting to come into play. These investments should result in new jobs and long-term employment.

The GOP complains that the stimulus didn't turn the economy around in 60 days and then wants to stop it just when it starts gaining some real momentum. They do that because they're either too stupid (Cantor/Kyl) or are congenital liars.

I hope you're not one of them.

Posted by: bdop4 on September 2, 2009 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK

Everyone is confused. According to Paul Krugman, for example, the US has not yet borrowed nearly enough money to reverse the economic decline.

Posted by: marketeer on September 2, 2009 at 11:02 AM | PERMALINK

Mr. Benen, you are so cute with your thinking that "evidence" has some relevance here. Remember, you're talking about Amurka and the faith-based worldview. Holding to two diametrically-opposed ideas is the norm. "I believe it" is all the "evidence" they need.

Posted by: Greg Worley on September 2, 2009 at 11:03 AM | PERMALINK

Uh oh! The stimulus is working! Gotta stop this pronto, guys, or the people will foolishly vote for the Democrats who improved the economy and gave them affordable health care. Crisis alert, crisis alert!

Posted by: T-Rex on September 2, 2009 at 11:03 AM | PERMALINK

This morning, Rep. Eric Cantor (R) of Virginia, the #2 Republican in the House, said the same thing, calling the cancelling of the stimulus "the responsible thing" to do.

Yes, let's show how responsible the government is by after first promising states recovery money for budgets and infrastructure projects to then say just joking we're taking it back. This coming from the party that was aghast at the thought of how irresponsible it would be to pull out of Iraq, staying a hundred years if necessary.

Posted by: oh my on September 2, 2009 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK

T-Rex nails it.

A soft landing rather than a hard thud resulting from the stimulus for the economy, and true health care reform (if it happens), will represent two nails in the proverbial coffin for Republicans.

They know that any positives equals negatives for them in elections upcoming.

So much for that 'America First' BS.

Posted by: terraformer on September 2, 2009 at 11:16 AM | PERMALINK

The Republican thinking is easy to understand:

Obama success = GOP failure.
America? Fuck America, they didn't vote for us, anyway.

Posted by: hells littlest angel on September 2, 2009 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

Consider it the opening salvo to the notion that a second stimulus is needed. Now it's "left wing crazy" to ask that the stimulus continue, let alone another one.

Posted by: MobiusKlein on September 2, 2009 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK

Here's what they'll be saying in a week or two:

"The stimulus is kickin' in, folks, so we don't need to spend any more money on stimulus -- let's save the cost to the federal deficit. The Democrats want to spend, spend, spend and they don't care about the federal deficit. We're calling for restraint. See? We're the fiscally-responsible party. Vote Republican!"

Then they'll roll out their teabaggers again and contact FOX.

Posted by: pol on September 2, 2009 at 11:21 AM | PERMALINK

"Yes, this is the same Eric Cantor who's bragged about the benefits of the recovery efforts in his district."

Shorter version: I got mine - screw everyone else.

Posted by: wbn on September 2, 2009 at 11:34 AM | PERMALINK

And if you live in the 7th District in Virginia, please fergawdsake don't vote for him.

Posted by: VaLiberal on September 2, 2009 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK

To bdop4, targeted spending on infrastructure and new growth technologies. What happens when the money runs out? You didn't seem to answer that, or name one new growth technology (there isn't one)that's going to employ the millions of people out of work. Just because Cantor is a idiot doesn't mean this recession is close to being over.

Posted by: Rick on September 2, 2009 at 11:43 AM | PERMALINK

We should work to bring the word nihilism to the mainstream, as in, "Those Republicans are such nihilists."

Make them look it up and defend against the charge. It would keep their base busy, is quite educational, and much more palatible than their current preference for an N-word.

Posted by: Bob Johnson on September 2, 2009 at 11:55 AM | PERMALINK

Why not point out a little more prominently that the article was in the WSJ?

2-3% contribution to growth is huge! Can anyone calculate how many jobs were not lost because of this amount of stimulus?

Posted by: tomj on September 2, 2009 at 12:01 PM | PERMALINK

Good for the WSJ. At least some reporters are not fully under the Murdoch spell.

2-3% of GDP is a pretty outstanding multiplier effect. VP Biden, please make sure your speech tomorrow kicks some GOP a$$.

Posted by: Ohioan on September 2, 2009 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

The Repubs are so dead-set against anything Obama does, they're willing to cancel hundreds of billions in tax cuts. Why are the Dems not hammering that point?

Posted by: DG on September 2, 2009 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK

"You didn't seem to answer that, or name one new growth technology (there isn't one)that's going to employ the millions of people out of work. Just because Cantor is a idiot doesn't mean this recession is close to being over."

What's with you people that want everything fixed today, and anything less is failure ?

You've got to stop the bleeding before you can fix the actual problem with the patient.

Posted by: OhNoNotAgain on September 2, 2009 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK

Let me get this straight...

THESE are the people Obama wants to work with ?
In the spirit of Bi-Partisanship ?

Grassley and Enzi are going to agree to HCR ??

My hopes are sinking

Posted by: MSierra, SF on September 2, 2009 at 1:42 PM | PERMALINK

Rick: You didn't seem to answer that, or name one new growth technology (there isn't one)that's going to employ the millions of people out of work.

Biofuel(Diesel and gasoline) from algae is a fast-growing new industry, mostly privately financed (petroleum companies collectively have committed more than a billion dollars in the last half year). It probably won't employ millions, but it will employ many. Collectively (again) the investments in new energy (biofuel, wind, PV and concentrated solar, nuclear power) could make a considerable contribution to economic recovery.

Mostly "non-stimulus" money is involved, but some of the new investment is from "stimulus" money.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on September 2, 2009 at 1:44 PM | PERMALINK

Rick: You didn't seem to answer that, or name one new growth technology (there isn't one)that's going to employ the millions of people out of work.

Many new technologies will employ millions now out of work, not just 1 or a few.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on September 2, 2009 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK

The economy won't recover until the crooks that are still robbing us blind on Wall Street are thrown in jail.

Posted by: Alan Greedspam on September 2, 2009 at 3:50 PM | PERMALINK
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