September 11, 2009
A SPENT FORCE?.... Perhaps the best possible news on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks is a report pointing to al Qaeda facing severe difficulties.
Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida is under heavy pressure in its strongholds in Pakistan's remote tribal areas and is finding it difficult to attract recruits or carry out spectacular operations in western countries, according to government and independent experts monitoring the organisation.
Speaking to the Guardian in advance of tomorrow's eighth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, western counter-terrorism officials and specialists in the Muslim world said the organisation faced a crisis that was severely affecting its ability to find, inspire and train willing fighters.
Its activity is increasingly dispersed to "affiliates" or "franchises" in Yemen and North Africa, but the links of local or regional jihadi groups to the centre are tenuous; they enjoy little popular support and successes have been limited.
Lethal strikes by CIA drones -- including two this week alone -- have combined with the monitoring and disruption of electronic communications, suspicion and low morale to take their toll on al-Qaida's Pakistani "core", in the jargon of western intelligence agencies.
Interrogation documents seen by the Guardian show that European Muslim volunteers faced a chaotic reception, a low level of training, poor conditions and eventual disillusionment after arriving in Waziristan last year.
Spencer Ackerman, reflecting on the report, added, "If this Guardian piece is even 50 percent correct, al-Qaeda faces a recruiting crisis, ideological bankruptcy and capabilities deficit so severe that its entire viability is questioned. This is a death spiral."
Obviously, there's no reason to start popping the corks. The terrorist network can experience all kinds of recruiting, fundraising, and morale problems, but still manage to execute a devastating attack. As the saying goes, they "only need to get lucky once."
But if al Qaeda has fallen on hard times, and has come to represent a spent force, it's a very encouraging development for the United States and the world.
—Steve Benen 9:20 AM
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YES, if true it would be wonderful and as Obama now "owns" that too...he can take a bow, right?
Posted by: Dancer on September 11, 2009 at 9:22 AM | PERMALINK
I agree with Dancer.
If Ronny Ray-guns single handedly won the Cold War, I guess President Obama has defeated AQ.
Posted by: BuzzMon on September 11, 2009 at 9:31 AM | PERMALINK
We are the United States,and President Obama is our representative. To "Dancer" "YES, if true it would be wonderful and as Obama now "owns" that too...he can take a bow, right? " the asnwer to your perhaps sarcastically asked question is that we the people own this, as we the people own everything that this country does.
But the fat lady hasn't fully sung yet, and even after she does, there'll be another fat lady in the future who hasn't fully sung yet either.
Posted by: Chris on September 11, 2009 at 9:32 AM | PERMALINK
This is the argument for continuing with the Afghan War
I'm not wild about spending more resources and lives here, but it may work
Unfortunately, the Afghan President is corrupt
I think he was originally a Bush appointment
Democracy works in strange ways
Posted by: MSierra, SF on September 11, 2009 at 9:46 AM | PERMALINK
...al-Qaeda faces a recruiting crisis, ideological bankruptcy and capabilities deficit so severe that its entire viability is questioned. This is a death spiral.
Sounds like the Republican party.
Posted by: Dennis-SGMM on September 11, 2009 at 9:54 AM | PERMALINK
As I understand it, the US is more or less despised in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and our continuing presence there is simply making things worse. The "democratic" elections in Afghanistan, woefully corrupt as they may have been, become a bad orwellian joke when you realize that one of the largest political constituecies, the Taliban, were barred from participating. How could anyone in the region possibly consider the US anything other than cynically hypocritical given this behavior? How could Pakistanis see what is happening to Afghans, and not fear that, in time, the US will simply declare undesirable polical factions illegal? The diminishment of al Qaeda, considered in isolation from this, may be encouraging; but the continuing behavior of the United States in the region will make other and more dangerous enemies.
Posted by: Jason on September 11, 2009 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
Unfortunately, America is fat, dumb and happy. Hence warnings of impending doom, from Pearl Harbor to 9/11, met with yawning indifference.
The man with his "hair in fire" is too often a figure of ridicule. I'm reminded of the old ads for the Philadelphia Bulletin, with the little man trying to alert the public to some disaster, but everyone has their nose buried in the aforementioned newspaper. Today it is American Idol.
And the same goes for our financial disasters, from the Crash of '29 to the recent housing meltdown, and Bernie Maddof. Nobody listens to the kid crying "The emperor has no clothes!", not while we are feathering our 401(k) and drinking champagne from silk slippers.
Eventually, Reality bites us on the ass, but too little, too late. Remember the old lyric, "When will they ever learn?"
Posted by: DAY on September 11, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK
It seems like only yesterday, March 2009:
"Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said today that the GOP should look to the Taliban for guidance in conveying its position on the stimulus package and, more broadly, in working to make the party's views on issues known.
[...] "Insurgency, we understand perhaps a little bit more because of the Taliban," Sessions said during a meeting with Hotline editors. "And that is that they went about systematically understanding how to disrupt and change a person's entire processes."
After attending a Health Care Town Brawl meeting in August I think it's fair to say Pete Sessions d the Republicans have learned their al Qaeda lessons very well.
Posted by: pj in jesusland on September 11, 2009 at 10:08 AM | PERMALINK
We need to get bin Laden.
Posted by: Bob Miller on September 11, 2009 at 10:28 AM | PERMALINK
Given the expenditure in blood and treasure over the last eight years by the richest country in the world with the greatest military might in the world, "al Qaeda facing severe difficulties" doesn't seem like something to celebrate.
Posted by: DJHenry on September 11, 2009 at 10:40 AM | PERMALINK
Don't neglect the psy-ops factor. By spreading the notion that AQ is spent and having troubles, it contributes to their problems in recruiting. I just hope the folks at the top don't believe their own spin & propaganda.
AKA 'Mission Accomplished'
Posted by: MobiusKlein on September 11, 2009 at 10:41 AM | PERMALINK
But the fat lady hasn't fully sung yet, and even after she does, there'll be another fat lady in the future who hasn't fully sung yet either.
Posted by: Chris
So true. The American "War On Terror" is like the American "War On Drugs" in that it can never be won (conveniently), and is a great political propaganda wedge created and used by Republican administrations. Did you know that over the last 40 years America has spent $2.5 Trillion fighting the drug war (and with very negligible affect)?
Time has a great short piece on the drug war @ http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1887488,00.html
Posted by: about time on September 11, 2009 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK
This shouldn't surprise anyone. Extremist movements are always seductive to people who feel oppressed and angry, and they always fizzle out because in the end they're nihilistic and don't offer a viable way to run society. The Brigate Rosse in Italy. The Baader-Meinhof gang. Remember them? Not too well, eh? Well, I was in Italy when the B.R. was at its height, and they managed to kill a lot of people before evaporating. But they made no significant impact on Italian politics or society in the long run.
What we need to guard against is the mentality that the likes of Glenn Beck would like to encourage, in which we're constantly in the same state of anger and fear that we felt on 9/12/01, and want to take it out on a convenient scapegoat. But it isn't human nature to constantly revisit those painful emotions, no matter how people try to stir us up with them. Does anyone still "Remember the Alamo," or "Remember the Maine?" Have you ever traveled in a European city and strolled down a street named "November 17" or whatever? There are lots of streets like that. Ever wonder what happened on Nov. 17 and why it was important? Nah, me neither.
Posted by: T-Rex on September 11, 2009 at 10:51 AM | PERMALINK
"We need to get bin Laden."
bingo. whether or not his influence is necessarily key in the modern terrorist movement his capture would be, at least symbolically, a justification of the obama administration's shift in foreign policy and further repudiation of bush's.
plus, it would be fun to see how the righties spin it. "obama knows where they are cuz he pals around with 'em?" i can only imagine.
Posted by: sadly on September 11, 2009 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK
Good news, indeed. We're one step closer to the deal that gets us out of Afghanistan. The Taliban sells us Al Queda, we declare victory, announce it's time to let Afghans take responsibility for their own country, and let the Taliban settle with the warlords on their own terms.
Posted by: Midland on September 11, 2009 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK
The War on Drugs is an economic stimulus package for right wing police and thugs. It's used to separate poor people from their real estate and other personal property. Don't confuse it with any meaningful change in drug use statistics.
Did Al-qaeda ever take responsibility for the 9-11 attacks? If not, they didn't do it. How about Bin Laden?
Posted by: anonymous on September 11, 2009 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK
how can this be? i was assured by prominent Conservatives that our electing a Muslim Kenyan as President would rally al Queda, cause them to celebrate in the streets! they wouldn't have lied to me to try and influence my vote in an election would they?
just imagine if W would have used the strategy Obama is deploying back in the Tora Bora days when we hadn't already squandered so much blood, treasure and goodwill at home and abroad. . .
Posted by: zeitgeist on September 11, 2009 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
I don't find too many streets called "November 17" around here. Just up the way, however, there is one called "May 8, 1945". I think people around here (Paris) remember why.
Posted by: GEM_in_Orange on September 11, 2009 at 11:49 AM | PERMALINK
An anniversary (9/11) announcement of the waning effectiveness in western countries of al Qaeda seems suspicious if only because of its timing.
And as long as bin Laden can be used as "the bogeyman", he'll never be captured. The neocons need him.
Posted by: VaLiberal on September 11, 2009 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
Al Qaeda never was more than a couple hundred people. Lots of groups have interests in exaggerating their numbers and abilities.
Posted by: flubber on September 11, 2009 at 6:01 PM | PERMALINK
I think Afghanistan is winnable - the Taliban is generally hated there, so Afghanistan has a built-in Sunni awakening. And with AQ on the run, and especially since Obama's message doesn't exactly inspire jihadists the way Bush does, I believe we can get the upper hand there.
Posted by: Andy on September 11, 2009 at 8:02 PM | PERMALINK