It would be interesting to know what these numbers would look like if they were broken down by region.

Republican support hasn't grown much, but Democratic support has slipped badly.

Which, coupled with the results of the last two elections, suggests that Democratic pandering to Republicans is a really bad idea electorally and not just practically.

They need to pass health care ASAP, with a strong public option, and cordially invite the Republicans to f*** off and die.

The important thing about this poll is that it's DEMOCRATS that are getting most disillusioned with their representatives. If Congressional Democrats would start listening to what their constituents want, they wouldn't be getting so unpopular.

So what specifically drove down the decline last November, right before the election? Was it simply Republican engagement with politics?

We see right now that Republican engagement is super high (undoubtedly because they are still shocked/worried at not being in power and fearing new policies for silly reasons.)

So are we at an "early November 2010" for this reason?

Deliver on Health Care Reform and reap the rewards.

The Dems need to start producing for the American people instead of the corporations.

The new Gallup data is a snapshot.

But your chart isn't and it's easy to see that the generic ballot question has little predictive value even immediately before an election.

For comparison, roughly a year ago (just before their historic rout of the Republicans last November) the generic ballot poll question had Democrats at 48 versus 46 for Republicans.

A year later and we're at 46 - 44.

Why are the Democrats losing support?

Because they're not doing the F*!@#*g job we elected them to do!

Pass real health care reform with a strong (anyone - individual or business - who wants to participate may choose to do so!) Public Option - Medicare for all, and the numbers will turn around.

Pass "something" called health care reform, with or without "some sort of" limited, triggered, designed to fail "public option", and that's it - they'll deserve to be toast!

the generic ballot question has little predictive value even immediately before an election

Reinforcing the point, look at the 2006 data (which are much more finely sampled). In what looks like a 2-3 month period we see a 9 point swing in support for Democrats (coupled with a 12 point drop in support for Republicans). Did the electorate really change that much? I doubt it. I simply think the question has little bearing on reality.

What pirate wench said. The Dems are going to get hammered if they can be painted (rightly or wrongly) as not having accomplished "change we can believe in."

As several excellent comments above say, there is fairly widespread disillusionment amongst Dems who are paying attn to what has actually occurred several months along since these folks have been in office.

I'm one of the ones that has been turned off -- very very much -- by what I see happening. I realize there is a trade-off when bills are being negotiated (Mr Benen calls this the sausage-making process) but the unfortunate truth is that this Congress has not put together many good bills. The Ledbetter bill is the only one I can think offhand that's a genuinely good bill. And with the majorities they have, Dems should be pushing through good stuff non-stop, now so that they can see the results in time for the next election cycle. But we aren't seeing that. What we are seeing is a bunch of craptacular nonsense passed, either in the name of "bipartisanship" or because the Democrats themselves are, by and large, compromised by corporate interests and big money. (I'm thinking of TARP and the health care "reform" specifically here but there are plenty of examples to be found, I would reckon.)

This is a chance that Dems have been waiting a very long time for, and they're blowing it. And it's a damn shame.

And as far as bipartisanship goes -- I have a theoretical question. Say you come across some crazy person on a bridge. The person wants to jump and wants you to jump with him. In the interests of fairness & comity, you know, to work with him. Would you do it?

I haven't seen a good idea come from the Republican side of the aisle in a very long time, but the crazy continues to grow. At some point (a point I feel we as a country have long since passed), Dems need to stop listening to the crazy & expressing their willingness to jump with the Republican crazy people.

Applauding previous commenters, a shitty Health Care Bill like that now offered by the great and wise Baucus could really help drive the Democrats below the GOPs numbers. The Repubs are probably chuckling at this so-called bill, licking their chops in anticipation.

On the other hand, give the bill a robust public option, which is what people WANT, and maybe, just maybe, MAYBE, people will believe all that stuff we heard about HOPE and CHANGE.

And if not, the Democrats can start counting the CHANGE because that is all many of us will give them in future.

Whats been in the msm? The right wing noise machine with their lies,over and over. The repugs are a lot louder and they are winning the propaganda war!
I hate to say it but there are a lot of ignorant Americans.

Fifth, a poll that says Dem approval for Congress fell 18% in one month seems pretty screwy on the face of it.

Poll results show 10% chose "other/undecided." Being as the current GOP is almost completely made up of the Faithful, I think most of those people are disillusioned Democrats.

For better or worse, Republicans manage to drive their agenda through with a slim majority, while Democrats have a tough time even with a near super-majority. The public translates this to the Republicans being tougher on certain issues, even if their policies don't support it. If the Democrats can't deliver on "change", they're going to find it hard to motivate their base to support them.

But before DCCC staffers start jumping out the window, there are a few angles to this to keep in mind. -- Steve Benen

Erm... I wouldn't discourage them from jumping. Maybe they could take some of their Blue Dog/Yellow Belly masters with them, too.

And what pirate wench said, @15:00, about what we need. Though I'd also add: starting *now*, not in 2013.

More to the point why the spread has narrowed - Democrats are now in power. The party in power holds complete responsibility for what's happening, period. We're in a jobless recovery and we're in the middle of the health care debase - both of which make people take notice of their financial situation more than normal.

If Dems want to reverse the slide the solution is very simple. DO WHAT THEY PROMISED TO DO IN 2008 ELECTIONS.

And they need to start acting like Democrats, not Republicans lite.

Like everyone else is saying:

No meaningful health care reform bill with a strong public option spells a well deserved bloodbath for the Democrats in '10.

They've got the white House, the Senate and the House. THere's no excuse for not getting this done. They need to be held accountable.

This is just one single solitary poll. The change from the last Gallup poll is not statistically significant (not that I care about that). To see what is happening it is better to average a bunch of polls. Over at pollingreport I looked at one poll per pollster in September and got Democrats by 6% on average which is the same as Gallup in July. With this poll the Sept-Oct average is down to 5%. Big deal.

I agree with qwerty, plus let's face it: the Dems don't have strong Congressional leadership. We're all frustrated that despite the largest majorities that we are likely to ever see again, nothing is getting done. This would not have been the case under leaders like Rayburn and Johnson, or even Mitchell. I like Nancy Pelosi, but she can't seem to unify her party, and Reid is pathetic. Why he's the leader, I don't know.

Yeah, I would say that the Dems' slippage has to do with people like me being thoroughly disgusted with the fail performance of the Vichy Democrats in congress.

I have never voted for a Republican in the 32 years I have been eligible to vote, and I sure am not going to start doing so now, but my willingness to support challengers to the current crop of Vichy Dems grows with each passing day.

These polls will continue to be largely useless unless they start asking follow-up questions that probe why people approve or disapprove -- what exactly they're praising or protesting.

Remember that it isn't enough to pass legislation-- it has to be implemented in a way that doesn't cause too many dislocations. This is particularly important with any healthcare legislation. If, for example, it has a mandate but is awkwardly implemented, that could elicit a backlash.

It's not just about politics -- it's about administration.

when you look a bit deeper..

Congress approval - DEM: 36%

Congress approval - GOP: 9%

- Gallup 10/7/09

Democratic numbers have been sliding because the Democratic Party is showing itself to be a pack of feckless and dithering weaklings who are incapable of addressing the nation's problems.

The public is far ahead of the Democrats. Large majorities want a public option, and want much harsher action against Wall Street, the banks, and their abuses.

To the extent that the Democrats are like deer frozen in the headlights and can't break away from their corporate sponsors, they will lose support. That is the "wake up call" that they need to hear.

The ones who need to hear it most are the so-called "Blue Dogs," because they are the ones who will get chopped off at the knees if they keep standing in the way of real change.

i suspect if you throw the south out, where the dem brand is currently poison, the dems win the rest of
the country with a number in the mid 50's

trying this again: i suspect if you throw whites in the south out, where the dem brand is currently poison among that group, the dems win the rest of the country with a number in the mid 50's

I voted for Obama and virtually all Democrats in 2008 because I THOUGHT I was voting for Democrats instead of Republican Lites. Kowtowing to Republicans is NOT a good idea if Democrats expect to take the election in 2010. If I vote for Democrats and end up getting some flavor of Republican instead, I might as well vote for the Republicans in the first place -- and I will do so if the Democrats don't start getting their act together. And that goes for Obama as well.

It's difficult not to have an exploding head over this. True, the Democrats have no spine, and probably won't find one anytime soon. But to think that by electing Rethugs, after all the damage they have done over the past 30 years and particularly during the eight disastrous years of Bush II when they had control of Congress (mostly) and the White House, things will improve is to destroy any semblance of logic and intelligence known to humankind.

Neither the dim Dems or the horrible Rethugs serve the interests of the country. Switching between them only continues the farce. Until there is a credible third party to provide the muscle for victory we will continue to wander in the wilderness of mindless partisanship.

This is truly disgusting.

It is just plain hilarious watching people try and spin this. And the best part about all this is the fact this poll was released the same day a bogus AP poll purporting to show a 6%-in- three- weeks increase in approval ratings for Obama. Even more hilarious is the notion that a public option is somehow going to increase the numbers here. Were you people living in a cave, or did you miss that these declines started happening when Obama started pushing his Canadian health care scheme. The notion that more independent minded voters are deserting Obama and the Dems because they aren't far enough to the left is just pure fantasy. And I do wish people here would stop quoting the nonsensical "public option has 60% support" bullshit. Every poll that has been taken that has arrived at those numbers shows that once you start explaining the potential ramifications of the "public option" such as rationed care, increased taxes, a possibility of losing private insurance, etc. that the support drops to around 35%. The polls by the Kaiser foundation are the best, but certainly not the only, examples of this.

This poll is yet more evidence, not that any was needed, that the Dems won such landslides in 2006 and 2008 for one reason, George Bush. Trying to deny that he is the reason for the magnitude of the Democrat's success is like trying to deny Jupiter is big. The GOP brand is in the toilet because of him, and that is all there is to it. He is not going to be on the ballot ever again.

And while it is true that 13 months is a long way away, this analysis ignores one huge number, the proverbial turd in the punch bowl, that "flavors" absolutely everything: unemployment. I have yet to read any expert at all who believes unemployment will be below 10% in the summer of 2010. I am sorry, but if that does come to pass, the Dems can give free health care to everyone via a bill that raises no taxes, results in no rationing makes everyone live to 100 and causes our shit to smell like pine cones, and they will still get crushed in the mid terms. As Democratic Pollster Peter Hart was quoted as saying to the Wall Street Journal: "Anytime unemployment hits double digits, it's hard to see the party in control having a good election year."

Meh, remember the Dems need a 4-6 point advantage in the generic ballot to break even historically because our people don't vote.

"Reinforcing the point, look at the 2006 data (which are much more finely sampled). In what looks like a 2-3 month period we see a 9 point swing in support for Democrats (coupled with a 12 point drop in support for Republicans). Did the electorate really change that much? I doubt it. I simply think the question has little bearing on reality."

Well of course you arrive at that conclusion. Why? Because you are looking for any way to just dismiss the reality this poll is telling you. I think the 2006 elections vs. what happened just two years earlier, pretty clearly demonstrate the correctness of the polling.

"The new Gallup data is a snapshot."

As is most polling. Why treat this one any differently? Amazing how individuals always try to ignore the polling data they don't like.

"But to think that by electing Rethugs, after all the damage they have done over the past 30 years and particularly during the eight disastrous years of Bush II when they had control of Congress..."

Yeah, Reagan caused such a huge amount of damage. That 8% economic growth during parts of his first and second term? Man wasn't that terrible? His successful ending of the Cold War? Another black eye on the Republican party. All those polls showing how most people consider Reagan one of our best presidents? All lies. It is absolutely amazing how the Dems, whenever they talk about past presidents, always seem to magically forget the tremendously destructive Carter administration, while ignoring at the same time the job Reagan did cleaning it up. It amazes me that you people actually buy the bullshit that the Republican Party is the only party that ever screws up whereas the Democrats do no wrong, at all. I would put Jimmy Carter and LBJ with his Vietnam adventurism at the top of most destructive presidents against any Republican you can name.

"Poll results show 10% chose "other/undecided." Being as the current GOP is almost completely made up of the Faithful, I think most of those people are disillusioned Democrats."

Once again, total nonsense. The Republicans were saying the same exact things about the Democrats in 2004. Permanent majority articles were being written in regards to the Republicans almost daily it seemed. Yeah, how did that turn out? And talk about ignoring the fact that this poll and this article explicitly state, for all those whose reading comprehension is above that of a two year old, that INDEPENDENTS now favor Republicans by quite a large margin. But then, acknowledging that would go against your hilariously bogus narrative that the Dems are declining bogus they aren't far enough to the left.

"To see what is happening it is better to average a bunch of polls. Over at pollingreport I looked at one poll per pollster in September and got Democrats by 6% on average which is the same as Gallup in July."

Looking at the two most recent polls, Rasmussen, who has been the most accurate pollster the past several election, has the Republicans at +4 and Gallup has them at -2. Gallup is a poll of Adults and not Likely Voters like the Rasmussen. Which is even worse news for Democrats because Gallup has acknowledged on multipole occasions that Republicans actually gain two or three points when Likely Voters are sampled.

There is absolutely no denying, at all, the trend is toward Republicans. You can throw in all the polls from August and July you want, which is what Pollingreport does, but those polls are not an accurate indication of the situation now.

"when you look a bit deeper..

Congress approval - DEM: 36%

Congress approval - GOP: 9%"

Since you don't give much of an explanation, I am not sure what you are trying to say here, but it seems you are trying to state that only 9% of the public thinks the Republicans in Congress are doing a good job. Which is not the poll is stating at all. The accompanying analysis of the poll indicates that only 9% of Republicans approve of the job Congress is doing whereas only 36% of Democrats approve. If I have misread your intentions, I sincerely apologize for that.

Democrats acting like Republicans.

Fuck'em.

mark...your explanation does provide more detail...

i should have added that..

my apologies for being unclear..

to a larger point..

as imperfect as the process and the democrats are...

dems and obama are the preferred choice for finding solutions to ..

healthcare...the economy...and other major issues...

and there's a good reason for that..

the latest examples..

Study: Bush administration blocked efforts to prevent housing crisis - University of North Carolina 10/7/09

Senate panel finds no fault with Obama system of policy 'czars' - L.A.Times 10/7/09