October 7, 2009
CBO SCORES BAUCUS.... The long-awaited Congressional Budget Office report on the Senate Finance Committee's health care reform bill was finally released this afternoon.
What's the news? The bill would cost $829 billion over the next decade, achieve $81 billion in deficit reduction, and cover 94% of the population.
According to CBO and JCT's assessment, enacting the Chairman's mark, as amended, would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $81 billion over the 2010-2019 period. The estimate includes a projected net cost of $518 billion over 10 years for the proposed expansions in insurance coverage. That net cost itself reflects a gross total of $829 billion in credits and subsidies provided through the exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers; those costs are partly offset by $201 billion in revenues from the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and $110 billion in net savings from other sources. The net cost of the coverage expansions would be more than offset by the combination of other spending changes that CBO estimates would save $404 billion over the 10 years and other provisions that JCT and CBO estimate would increase federal revenues by $196 billion over the same period. In subsequent years, the collective effect of those provisions would probably be continued reductions in federal budget deficits. Those estimates are all subject to substantial uncertainty.
By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people who are uninsured would be reduced by about 29 million, leaving about 25 million nonelderly residents uninsured (about one-third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants). Under the proposal, the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 94 percent. Roughly 23 million people would purchase their own coverage through the new insurance exchanges, and there would be roughly 14 million more enrollees in Medicaid and CHIP than is projected under current law. Relative to currently projected levels, the number of people either purchasing individual coverage outside the exchanges or obtaining coverage through employers would decline by several million.
At first blush, it's a mixed bag. The price tag will please spending-averse lawmakers, as will the deficit reduction (bending the proverbial cost curve), but the Finance Committee bill still leaves a significant number of people without coverage, and subsidy levels remain a point of major contention.
I'll have more in the morning, but in the meantime, the key takeaway from the CBO report is straightforward enough: it moves the process forward. If the CBO had released a report trashing the Baucus bill -- higher than expected costs, lower than expected savings -- the result would have been quite a bit of chaos on the Hill.
This afternoon's report keeps the ball rolling in the right direction.
—Steve Benen 4:55 PM
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the 1st republican i saw comment on it was at msnbc...
some strategist said it was a shame that people reacted so positively over the government spending 829-billion dollars...
to his credit....
david shuster reminded the goper that the program was revenue neutral...
gop 2009: missing the whole point of the report...
for freedom
Posted by: mr. irony on October 7, 2009 at 5:11 PM | PERMALINK
How does this compare to the other four bills? I'd love to see a chart with side-by-side comparisons of all the key metrics.
Posted by: Jon B. on October 7, 2009 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK
everybody knows that the gop never accepts a cbo report unless it agrees with their narrative...
Posted by: dj spellchecka on October 7, 2009 at 5:23 PM | PERMALINK
It only covers 94% of the population and it does nothing to drive down health care costs. In fact it is a big ass giveaway to the insurance industry. What shocks me is the failure of at least some Republicans to embrace the corporate giveaway.
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 7, 2009 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK
Single-effing-Payer!
Posted by: Disputo on October 7, 2009 at 6:16 PM | PERMALINK
Here is one of the caveats, from the CBO letter:
"The Chairman’s mark, as amended, has not yet been converted into legislative language."
The language is already so contradictory that there is disagreement among the Democrats about what it means.
Is the "Chairman's mark, as amended" publicly available? Purportedly, the bill increases the number of insured by 29 million, while leaving 23 million uninsured.
Posted by: MatthewRMarler on October 7, 2009 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK
Read the whole thing:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/106xx/doc10642/10-7-Baucus_letter.pdf
Posted by: MatthewRMarler on October 7, 2009 at 6:54 PM | PERMALINK
50% of uninsured covered = 50% effectiveness = PoS.
Posted by: bdop4 on October 7, 2009 at 7:29 PM | PERMALINK
Health Care reform really did turn out to be a joke, didn't it? The Democrats send a 20 years outright lying to Americans about their goals. They kept promising universal healthcare, when they get more than enough votes to pass a bill, they waste their time trying to figure what the absolute least amount of work they can possibly get away with doing is.
this is going to end badly. How many Americans who barely pay attention to this debate think they are going to get universal healthcare at the end of this? How do you think they are going to feel when absolutely nothing changes for them? How about the 37 million people who are going to be forced to buy insurance that will probably never actually get honored with tax credits they may or may not actually end up getting? Who is this bill supposed to please other than insurance companies?
Posted by: soullite on October 8, 2009 at 6:31 AM | PERMALINK
Remember that contest someplay in Florida held a decade ago, where they promised the winner a Toyota and instead pulled out a "Toy Yoda"? That's basically what the Democratic party has pulled when it comes to healthcare.
A party full of con-men.
Posted by: soullite on October 8, 2009 at 6:37 AM | PERMALINK
Presumably in conference the $81 billion will be put towards subsidies and the bill made deficit neutral?
Posted by: bob h on October 8, 2009 at 7:25 AM | PERMALINK
The group still has not announced a final deal, but this type of cost analysis is sure to move the debate forward.
Posted by: phone number lookup on October 8, 2009 at 7:52 AM | PERMALINK
Yeah, it's all hopeless, soullite. Totally hopeless in every single policy area. You might as well give up on the Dems and become a heavyhanded, repetitive concern troll. Oh, wait...
Posted by: shortstop on October 8, 2009 at 8:33 AM | PERMALINK
One day USA will lead the world and have the chance to be powered by solar or wind alone but that is if we start acting today
Posted by: work from home on October 8, 2009 at 8:45 AM | PERMALINK