October 8, 2009
INDEPENDENTS.... It's fairly common in the media for self-described "independents" to be held up as magical arbiters of sensible centrism. If Republicans move too far to the right, the argument goes, they'll lose the "independents" in the middle. If President Obama's approval rating with "independents" is slipping, the media tells us, it must be because he's too liberal.
Digby had a good item today on how misguided this common line of thinking is. (via Atrios)
I realize that the villagers think there is some sort of "median" moderate voter who believes that the answer to all of our problems lies somewhere between the positions of the two parties. But that's not necessarily the independent's position. They don't like either party true, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they yearn to split the difference. In fact, I suspect that a large number of them are apolitical people who don't really understand politics at all and simply reject whoever is in power when things aren't going well, without regard to party. [...]
The number of independents out there is quite large and all national politicians need to reach them in elections in order to win. But the knee jerk assumption that they are always more moderate than everyone else is probably wrong. They might just be more cranky, more cynical, more uninformed, more skeptical or more impatient.
I'm reminded of something Matt Yglesias said a while back: "Many independents are actually partisans. Many others just have no idea what they're talking about. A few really do pay attention and swing anyway."
Right. Independents are generally characterized as centrists, but the Washington Post published a lengthy analysis of political independents in July 2007, based on a survey conducted the Post in collaboration with the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University. The research didn't exactly break a lot of new ground, but it was a reminder that, among independents, there's an enormous amount of political diversity.
Strategists and the media variously describe independents as "swing voters," "moderates" or "centrists" who populate a sometimes-undefined middle of the political spectrum. That is true for some independents, but the survey revealed a significant range in the attitudes and the behavior of Americans who adopt the label. [...]
The survey data established five categories of independents: closet partisans on the left and right; ticket-splitters in the middle; those disillusioned with the system but still active politically; ideological straddlers whose positions on issues draw from both left and right; and a final group whose members are mostly disengaged from politics.
With that in mind, talking about what "independents" are thinking is all-but impossible. Characterizing them as frustrated moderates is a lazy way of thinking.
—Steve Benen 2:10 PM
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Even the genuine 'swing' voters aren't really half-way between left and right-- they mostly just can't make up their minds. And given that, nowadays, there's a much-bigger-then-usual ideological difference between the parties, not being able to make up your mind probably means you're not paying attention.
Posted by: MattF on October 8, 2009 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK
This democrat switched to independent because i was tired of supporting spineless and gutless democrats who totally caved into the necons on Iraq.
Democrats need to step to the plate and become FDR democrats, once again!
My independent money is that Obama and the spineless and gutless democrats with cave on Afghanistan! And, on the so call health care reform, which will be a bonus for the insurance companies. Yep, i'm one of those cynical independents!
Posted by: antiquelt on October 8, 2009 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK
As a lifelong Independent voter, I can add another insight to what some might believe. I don't believe either party has all the answers to every problem. Sometimes a liberal approach is the way to go (on protecting the environment and seeking clean energy options, for example), and sometimes a more conservative solution seems to fit better (like when they USED to care about fiscal responsibility...not that any of those conservatives are in office anymore). So it's true that I'm not really moderate, I just feel both sides have better answers to different problems.
My motto has always been, "Democrats are stupid, but Republicans are evil." I'm still waiting for that to be proven false...it's nice to see an intelligent, thoughtful, hard-working president in the White House again, though!
Posted by: mistamatic on October 8, 2009 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK
I've found that out there on the interwebz, most people who call themselves 'independents' are raging Righties who just don't want to be identified with the Republican Party any more.
It's annoying that these people mostly come from the same place mentally as Orly Taitz and Glenn Beck, yet they seem to expect to be excused from their extremism because they've decided to call themselves Independents.
Posted by: Stranger on October 8, 2009 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
Two important groups of independents:
(1) Small L libertarians: Socially tolerant, frequently anti-war, but right wing on anything that involves money.
(2) New Deal conservatives: Like government spending on healthcare, housing, jobs, etc. Conservative on social and cultural issues.
Neither of these groups are centrist.
Posted by: Win Pollard on October 8, 2009 at 2:29 PM | PERMALINK
And a corollary to this is that the villagers think that to get to the middle, you must always move to the right
Posted by: jefft452 on October 8, 2009 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK
Hmmmmm. I am a 'registered' Independent. Back in the day (waaaaaaaaayyyy back) we were able to do this. The reason I did this was because both parties had ideas and generally speaking I was financially right and socially left. That being said, I haven't voted for a Republican since the 90's because they went SO far right that I didn't recognize the party. In THIS decade there are just no ideas. Period.
Posted by: SYSPROG on October 8, 2009 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK
Steve, it's a point that can't be made enough.
Posted by: Jon on October 8, 2009 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK
I am an 'independent' - I am not a member of the Democratic party nor the GOP.
I left the Democratic party disillusioned during Clinton's first term. I was at a city employee training session whereupon a county supervisor entered and told all employees that they "owe their jobs to Willy Brown (the Dem mayor). Remember that on election day. ". I saw Democrat corruption first hand.
That did not make me a Republican, it made me distrustful of organizations and power. So I am not an apparatchik.
And with a Democratic party that didn't impede or pursue Bush's lawlessness and is sold to WallStreet ... It's hard to be enthusiastic about the party. The Democrats aren't progressive.
This is not to say that the GOP holds any appeal - I can't imagine ever voting for that party again.
And so the Dems are the least bad choice at the moment. But I wouldn't call them good.
And so I remain independent. But not uninformed.
Posted by: Jackifus on October 8, 2009 at 2:38 PM | PERMALINK
If it's a "lazy way of thinking," that's all the explanation you need as to why the fools on the cable networks and the Washington Post's op-ed page think it.
Posted by: bcamarda on October 8, 2009 at 2:38 PM | PERMALINK
What parties are you looking at that you see huge differences? On social issues that won't ever affect more than 10-15% of the population? Sure, huge ones. On economic issues that effect 100% of the public? Not. One. Fucking. Difference.
Steal from Americans and give to the rich, it's the Republican and Democrat way.
Posted by: soullite on October 8, 2009 at 2:41 PM | PERMALINK
3 days before the last pres election (after a two year campaign & $1B had been spent), 20% of independents claimed they were undecided.
Hint: Self-Identified Independents are mostly idiots who stroke their own narcissism by thinking of themselves as free-thinkers.
Posted by: crater on October 8, 2009 at 2:44 PM | PERMALINK
I don't know, maybe it's the clean air, fresh water...
Here in Oregon a sizable proportion of the voting population enjoy registration as of No Party Affiliation, rejecting the traditional parties on ideological basis' yet unwilling to join anything as 'organized' as The Independent Party. Another Party telling us how to think. When they themselves demonstrate no history of thinking things through. Its only real claim of late has been as the vehicle by which a number of Republicans abandoned their party for the Democratic Party.
Posted by: Ten Bears on October 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM | PERMALINK
Independents mostly don't give a rat's ass about the disgusting venue of US politics and its inane discourse. I'd also contend that independents go whichever way the wind is blowing, which explains how the Republicans have enjoyed such success with complicity from the media and a 24/7 noise machine.
Posted by: ckelly on October 8, 2009 at 3:22 PM | PERMALINK
I`m a life-long independent. Why? Simple; both parties are more interested in helping themselves than helping us. When one party demonstrates loyalty to the common interest above partisan interests, I`ll sign up. As it is, both parties are more interested in undermining solutions out of fear that the other party will get credit, (this is the primary motivation of the GOP today), and I find that unacceptable.
As to dis-interested; I majored in Poli Sci. I`m as politically engaged as most readers of this site. In fact, I´ve already cast my ballot, (absentee), for this year governor`s race. So dolts like crater (above), don`t have a clue what they`re saying.
Posted by: Rob Marine on October 8, 2009 at 3:24 PM | PERMALINK
My experience is Independents are basically Republicans with some sense of shame, therefore they will not call themselves Republicans, but they are 95% in tune with Republican Party and would never vote D.
Seems like everyone I meet lately is an Independent, yet 8 years ago they openly cheered Bush. They have the same empty rhetoric, yet somehow seem to truly believe they posses even more credibility because of their found title.
How many Tbaggers consider themselves Independents ? A lot I would think.
Posted by: ScottW on October 8, 2009 at 3:30 PM | PERMALINK
Steve Benen,
Good for you for your last statement: "With that in mind, talking about what "independents" are thinking is all-but impossible. Characterizing them as frustrated moderates is a lazy way of thinking."
I respond to Digby here:
http://www.docudharma.com/diary/16521/independent-voters-and-digby
Posted by: Michael Gass on October 8, 2009 at 4:05 PM | PERMALINK
The generalizations about independents on this comment thread are pretty ridiculous. I'm a Massachusetts resident, and am registered as an independent for a variety of reasons, including the fact that too much of the state Democratic party is a wholly owned subsidiary of the labor unions.
The idea that everyone's politics can measured on a bipolar spectrum of "Left" and "right" is inadequate; as this graph shows -- http://www.politicalcompass.org/analysis2 -- people's views diverge not only on a left-right economic axis, but also on an authoritarian/libertarian axis. I tend to lean left on the economic scale, but I also lean libertarian, so I distrust Big Government Liberals and Big Government Conservatives. Given the reality that the modern Republican party is, and has been, a party of the latter for quite a while, that means I am generally a partisan Democratic voter in elections to federal government positions (House, Senate, POTUS). But I sometimes defect in state elections, and could envision myself becoming more of a ticket splitter if Republicans regained some sanity.
Posted by: Jorge on October 8, 2009 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK
An independent is one who cannot choose between following those without a spine or those without a soul.
Posted by: doubtful on October 8, 2009 at 4:47 PM | PERMALINK
I've been a registered Independent since I was 18, and I voted for John Anderson. I stay an Independent because I believe we need more than 2 parties in America. I am a "progressive" and a feminist, an active church-goer. I believe that big business has too much influence in government and the average Joe and Jane not enough. I believe that every American should have health care--good Lord, other modern countries do, why not us? I believe that we should be good stewards of our resources--environmental and financial. I hate that the Democrats are caving on important issues and the Republicans are inciting violence, promoting racism, and spouting bald-faced lies. They are morally bankrupt.
I will always be an Independent. Oh, and both of my children registered Independent as well. They want to choose, not be dictated to.
Posted by: cyrki on October 8, 2009 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK
I've been registered independent, or rather unenrolled, ever since I first toddled into a voting booth. I used to say I was far too opinionated to subscribe to any party's platform; there would always be something that I couldn't countenance. In the last three major elections I've voted the straight Democratic ticket, and I'd probably just register as a Democrat already except that I want to be able to vote in a Republican primary if there's an opportunity to get the worst wacko off the ballot.
As for being stupid and uninformed, I read this site avidly and incorrigibly; what more do you want?
Posted by: Lucia on October 8, 2009 at 5:15 PM | PERMALINK
Many independents are actually partisans. Many others just have no idea what they're talking about. A few really do pay attention and swing anyway.
No, most independents are not actually partisans. Partisans are people who put the interests of their party before their political ideals. Matt thinks he's a liberal Democrat, but he's a Democrat first. He lobbies for filibuster-proof majorities and dreams of a permanent Democratic majority.
Count me as a progressive who usually votes for Democrats but couldn't care less if the Democrats hold the majority for the next 40 years. Not if it means putting up with the likes of Lieberman, Baucus, Conrad and the crowd that voted for the Bankruptcy Bill and the Iraq war. I'd be happy to kick Evan Bayh's Blue Dog caucus to the curb, if it meant we were left with a 54 vote majority in the Senate. I want a permanent progressive majority not a permanent Democratic one.
Posted by: Jinchi on October 8, 2009 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK
As to dis-interested; I majored in Poli Sci. I`m as politically engaged as most readers of this site. In fact, I´ve already cast my ballot, (absentee), for this year governor`s race. So dolts like crater (above), don`t have a clue what they`re saying.
Anyone hanging out here is automatically more engaged and informed than the average voter. That doesn't mean that most self-described independents are, too.
Posted by: shortstop on October 8, 2009 at 5:59 PM | PERMALINK
Independents are people willing to accept the choices they are presented with.
Posted by: Jon on October 8, 2009 at 6:02 PM | PERMALINK
"independents" and "moderates" are, in some ways two different groups.....in 08, obama won moderates in 43 states [losing four southern states, alaska, wyoming and idaho]. by comparison, in most states, the candidate that won the independents won the state [the exceptions for obama were all in the south..virginia, north carolina and florida]
ps:
i'm an independent because the democrats aren't liberal enough for me
Posted by: dj spellchecka on October 8, 2009 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK
Win hit the mark. One small update FOUR important groups of independents:
(1) Small L libertarians
(2) New Deal conservatives
+
(3) Large L Libertarians in Denial: a)would be repubs except hyper anti-tax; b)Firmly believe they are SO right (about everything) that they MUST be at the center of the political universe; c)only crazy people would think otherwise.
(My father was one of these.)
4) Undecided: The strangest animal of all. How, given the polar opposites of McCain and Obama, could you remain undecided weeks before the election?
Posted by: lee on October 8, 2009 at 8:31 PM | PERMALINK
"They might just be more cranky, more cynical, more uninformed, more skeptical or more impatient."
They are likely more informed, since they do not swallow either party's talking points.
They reject lies from both sides. Abhor duplicity, elitism and graft from both sides, equally, and generally wish a very large wave would come and wash the entirety of both parties out to sea and flush them.
And
They are really angry at having to continually take barf bags into the voting booth on election day.
Having to vote for the least disgusting choice, over a life-time of voting, does indeed make a citizen “cranky.”
Posted by: Marnie on October 8, 2009 at 8:39 PM | PERMALINK