Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 12, 2009

MONDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP....Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers.

* Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) re-election prospects continue to look like an uphill climb. A new Mason-Dixon poll found him trailing both of his Republican challengers in hypothetical match-ups, including a 10-point gap against Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, 49% to 39%.

* In New Jersey's gubernatorial race, independent Chris Daggett has won the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper, the Star-Ledger.

* In related news, there's apparently a growing sense in Democratic circles that it's going to have to go negative next year. "Very often the instinct for an incumbent party is to defend and justify," said Geoff Garin, a pollster for Democratic candidates. "But in this kind of environment, the best defense is a good offense. This needs to be a cycle where Republican vulnerabilities are a central part of the debate."

* In California, the latest Field Poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) looking fairly strong for re-election next year. In a hypothetical match-up against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, the incumbent leads by 14, 49% to 35%.

* Rep. Kendrick Meek's (D) Senate campaign in Florida leaked an internal poll over the weekend. While it showed Meek trailing Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in a hypothetical match-up by 16 points, the poll also found that Crist's support is soft statewide and among voters who know both candidates, Meek actually enjoys a narrow lead.

* U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan, a controversial Bush-era prosecutor who has been accused of using her office to pursue a partisan agenda, is considering a congressional campaign in Pennsylvania. (thanks to reader K.M. for the tip)

* Sarah Palin has made herself available to the Republican gubernatorial campaigns in Virginia and New Jersey. Neither, apparently, want to be associated with the former Alaska governor.

* Similarly, in California, Carly Fiorina was asked about her own associations with Palin. She told reporters, "I've never met Sarah Palin. Next question."

Steve Benen 12:00 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (22)
 
Comments

Re: the NJ Star-Ledger's endorsement of independent Chris Daggett, the paper is in some hot water for doing so.

The Star-Ledger is a sponsor of the next gubernatorial debate in New Jersey, at the end of this week. NJ State election rules prohibit debate sponsors from making endorsements before the debate.

Oops. What sanction they may face is not yet known, but it is a bit of an embarrassment to say the least.

Posted by: kevmo on October 12, 2009 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

Did Reid not get a primary challenge, then? Too bad, that.

Oh well. Even if the GOP manages to capture his seat, I won't be able to find it within me to shed a tear for him.

Posted by: Shade Tail on October 12, 2009 at 12:13 PM | PERMALINK

I'm surprised Reid doesn't have more support among Republicans, he sure works hard for them.

Good riddance.

Posted by: SteinL on October 12, 2009 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

On the "going negative" prospect. It's unseemly, but it's exactly what we should do. But the Republicans are so negative, we don't have to get particularly dirty. But it's high time they had to stand behind the ludicrous, moronic, retrograde stands they've taken.

Call me crazy, but I think the predictions of a hard-right swing next year are premature. If we pass health care and the economy an job market recover (not guarantees, but clear possibilities) AND we make sure the voters remember who led they way and who stood in the way, I think the mid-terms could shape up very differently.

Posted by: ILSA on October 12, 2009 at 12:21 PM | PERMALINK

"Carly Fiorina was asked about her own associations with Palin. She told reporters, 'I've never met Sarah Palin. Next question'."

Ouch.

Posted by: Joe Friday on October 12, 2009 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK

Steve,

There an ad on this site that says, "Sign the Petition - Stop Government Run Healthcare."

Wha?

Posted by: ILSA on October 12, 2009 at 12:36 PM | PERMALINK

Please, Sarah Palin! Please come to Virginia and stand next to Bob McDonnell for just a few photos! I'm begging you! And while you're at it, spout some of your insane bat-shittery!

Sadly, the reason Bob McDonnell doesn't want her here has nothing to do with her craziness. It's that she's a woman and belongs at home doing womanly things.

Posted by: chrenson on October 12, 2009 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK

I know it is fun to have a daily 'Campaign roundup' post looking at local races, but should we also not have a daily status check of campaign finance reform?

Call me a cynic, but the outcomes of ALL the races above are immaterial, unless there is a movement to clean out the system. And what better forum for a daily debate than Steve Benen's blog.

As Rep. Marcy Kaptur said on Bill Moyers last week, "People wonder, 'Well, why doesn't Congress get along?' Because they are made into arch enemies by the type of fundraising system that is embedded in the very guts of the institution. So, you've got to clean that out."

Posted by: Ohioan on October 12, 2009 at 12:43 PM | PERMALINK

Mark my words: Should he gain the nomination, Tom Cambell might well defeat Boxer next year. To be sure, he has been spurned before by California's GOP. But that's only because California republicans are batshit-purists. Still, they're sick of losing. The office is up for grabs. Boxer's support is not deep, and Cambell is a very smooth talking corporate whore. To anyone who might scoff, I ask: who is the governor of the Golden State? Cambell is undoubtedly be the most formidable candidate she could possibly face.

Posted by: JW on October 12, 2009 at 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

I always wondered if the title of Harry Reid's book: "The Good Fight" was meant to be ironic.

Posted by: Rick on October 12, 2009 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK

among voters who know both candidates, Meek actually enjoys a narrow lead.

Yes, but you probably can't extrapolate "voters who know both candidates" to the electorate as a whole.

Meek has 25% name recognition which is undoubtedly higher among Democrats than among Republicans. So it's not surprising that he is competitive among that subgroup. What I find surprising is that he doesn't lead by much even in that group of voters.

Posted by: Jinchi on October 12, 2009 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

Establishmentarian GOPers don't seem to like Sarah very much. Don't they know that she has millions of supporters who read, ahem sorry, we don't know that for sure, but anyway, millions of supporters who at least buy books!?

Posted by: SRW1 on October 12, 2009 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

If Harry Reid loses to an R in the next cycle, this could be a big benefit to Dems. Dick Durbin, a strong Obama ally would probably inherit the Majority Leader position. Good ol' Harry has not shown the slightest interest in using the 60 seat Majority he has been handed, Durbin seems to be a more reliable Democrat who wants the Democratic Agenda to get passed. Harry is a Democrat from a Red State who has to compromise a lot and often works against Democratic priorities.

Posted by: bcinaz on October 12, 2009 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK

Jinchi,

you beat to the punch.

i would agree that it's much more likely that democrats would have heard of meek than republicans. however i do think the race will be much closer than a lot of people think especially if marco rubio can do some damage to charlie's image.

Posted by: mudwall jackson on October 12, 2009 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

Majority Leader Durbin faces a 52-2-46 Senate, not a 58-2-40 Senate, and he's going to get more done?

Posted by: Davis X. Machina on October 12, 2009 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK

In general I don't think the loss of any Senate seats--even the worst of the Blue Dogs like Nelson--to Republicans is good. But I make an exception for Reid. We need someone who will at least try to break filibusters. There won't be a chance of having new leadership as long as Reid gets reelected.
Though it's quite possible it won't make a difference, the senate being such a broken institution.

Posted by: will on October 12, 2009 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

Elinor Ostrum has done absolutely nothing to deserve the Nobel Prize in economics.

Posted by: clonus on October 12, 2009 at 4:06 PM | PERMALINK

"a growing sense in Democratic circles that it's going to have to go negative next year."
Maybe, but Deeds negative reaction over "the thesis" seems to have backfired, with people asking why didn't he put up more positive proposals instead. It's hard to know what to do. I think though, that McDonnell is mostly better at the smooth guy image and Deeds is less polished. This is not fair and promotes "bad results", but people subconsciously notice these traits first and foremost.

Posted by: N e i l B on October 12, 2009 at 5:20 PM | PERMALINK

I'd hate to lose a Democratic Senate seat, but if Reid losing to a Republican in Nevada is what it take to get a new Majority Leader, I guess I can swallow the bitter pill.

Posted by: Cal Gal on October 12, 2009 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK

Tom Campbell was a law professor at Stanford, on extended leave, when as a Congressman he decided that lying about a blow job was a "high crime and misdemeanor" that justified impeaching President Clinton.

He's a party hack, and it will be brought out if he gets the nomination for Governor OR Senate.

Posted by: Impeach Jay Bybee on October 12, 2009 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK

The star ledger's endorsement of Chris Daggett is great news. I wish the republicans would stop the Bush/Rove Fear mongering. There is obviously a consensus that a vote for Daggett is not a vote for Corzine.

Daggett is a viable candidate and there are many of this who are voting for him because we know he can win and is the only candidate who can change this state. The Star Ledger's endorsement echoes and re-affirms that opinion.

We need people to get involved and spread the word about Chris Daggett.

Learn 15 ways to help and get started now.

Posted by: Alexander Higgins on October 12, 2009 at 7:39 PM | PERMALINK

I love the Star-Ledger endorsement, because the paper said it was NOT so much a reflection on the two-party duopoly's candidates as it was on the two parties.

Nice to see a newspaper recognizing that.

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on October 12, 2009 at 8:28 PM | PERMALINK
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