October 23, 2009
WHERE WE STAND.... Jonathan Cohn noted early this morning, "Thursday was as crazy a day as I've seen in Washington." Things did get pretty nutty yesterday, with a sudden and unexpected flurry of activity on health care reform and the public option. Cohn added, "[O]ver the course of the day, one thing became increasingly clear. At least for the moment, the debate isn't over whether to include a public option. It's over what kind."
Some of the reports yesterday proved more reliable than others, so let's take stock and review where we stand this morning. At this point, it seems Harry Reid is inclined to gamble on a reform bill that includes a public option, with the state opt-out compromise.
In pushing to include a government-run health insurance plan in the health care bill, the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, is taking a calculated gamble that the 60 members of his caucus could support the plan if it included a way for states to opt out.
Mr. Reid met with President Obama at the White House Thursday to inform him of his inclination to add the public option to the bill, but did not specifically ask the president to endorse that approach, a Democratic aide said. Mr. Obama asked questions, but did not express a preference at the meeting, a White House official said.
Mr. Reid's outlook was shaped, in part, by opinion polls showing public support for a government insurance plan, which would compete with private insurers.
Now, ABC News reported mid-day that Reid believes he has the votes in place to pass the reform bill with the public option. While the Majority Leader's office was content to let some scuttlebutt go without comment, this wasn't one of them -- multiple reports indicated that Reid has not lined up the votes, at least not yet.
And therein lies the gamble: Reid apparently intends to move forward with the bill he wants, and expects to line up the necessary support on the floor.
By all indications, Max Baucus isn't happy with this turn of events, and Olympia Snowe keeps telling anyone who'll listen how much she dislikes the public option (read: she's not voting for it). That said, Reid is sending up one giant trial balloon, waiting/watching to see just how apoplectic possible opponents become, and the reaction from the center-right has been fairly muted. Fears of an automatic, open revolt against the effort hasn't materialized. In other words, so far so good for reformers.
And where, pray tell, has this momentum for the public option come from? Brian Beutler reported, "According to a source close to negotiations, it came from [Wednesday] night's closed door meeting between Senate and White House officials, with the push coming from Democratic leadership."
"It came out at last night's meeting," the source indicated. "It was indicated that based on some surveying that had been done of the moderates, that it doesn't so far seem like they would jump out of their skin as long as they have an opportunity to vote to strip it."
That's an interesting point to keep in mind. If the bill comes to the floor with the public option, and that seems to be where we're headed, Democratic opponents of the measure will get the chance to vote on an amendment to take it out. Reid and other leaders know that vote will fail -- there's no way to find 60 votes against a public option -- but Landrieu and other Democratic opponents will be able to tell their constituents and insurance-company allies, "Look, I voted specifically against the idea."
There will be more discussions today. Stay tuned.
—Steve Benen 8:00 AM
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Politico is reporting this morning that Speaker Pelosi does not have the votes in the House for a 'robust' public option, and that the most likely outcome is a public option with a trigger. Of course, this is Politico, so you can take the report for what you think it is worth.
Posted by: Steven J. Berke on October 23, 2009 at 8:13 AM | PERMALINK
...but Landrieu and other Democratic opponents will be able to tell their constituents and insurance-company allies, "Look, I voted specifically against the idea."
And since their consistuents favor the public option, I'm sure they'll love to hear it.
Posted by: drew42 on October 23, 2009 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK
"-where, pray tell, has this momentum for the public option come from? "
From the pointy end of a pitchfork, wielded by VOTERS. . .
Posted by: DAY on October 23, 2009 at 8:30 AM | PERMALINK
"but Landrieu and other Democratic opponents will be able to tell their constituents and insurance-company allies, "Look, I voted specifically against the idea.""
If, in the end, it passes with an opt out clause for states, she better stay true to her beliefs and work to opt LA out of it. Let her stab her people in the back and twist the knife. Oh, no, what she'll do is pose for a disgraceful photo op with uninsured people from her state when the bill is passed with a big self-congratulatory smile on here face.
People need to take names and rem,ember who tried to block this and remember them on voting day.
Posted by: SaintZak on October 23, 2009 at 8:34 AM | PERMALINK
Oh, no, what she'll do is pose for a disgraceful photo op with uninsured people from her state when the bill is passed with a big self-congratulatory smile on here face.
Half of me is Ennui-Laden Cynical Girl who shrugs and says, "This is how legislation gets made." Half of me hates these people with the intensity of a thousand suns.
Make that one-third and two-thirds.
Posted by: shortstop on October 23, 2009 at 8:40 AM | PERMALINK
Half of me is Ennui-Laden Cynical Girl who shrugs and says, "This is how legislation gets made." Half of me hates these people with the intensity of a thousand suns.
Co-sign.
Posted by: Gregory on October 23, 2009 at 8:48 AM | PERMALINK
This debate has clarified one thing: no one can pretend anymore that Congress is full of public servants. They're for hire and most of them are corrupt, so enough with the euphemisms already.
But a number of heroic figures have emerged - Alan Grayson, Anthony Weiner, Jay Rockefeller, Ron Wyden - who weren't on the radar until this fight. And of course Speaker Pelosi.
If we do get a real public option, without a trigger, my faith in Obama will be somewhat renewed (though I will continue to think he came perilously close to blowing it, because he's so d@mn cautious). But Congress itself - corrupt, heartless, depraved indifference to the troubles of ordinary Americans. And Wall Street - even worse.
Posted by: disillusioned on October 23, 2009 at 8:52 AM | PERMALINK
People need to take names and remember who tried to block this and remember them on voting day
Absolutely! We need to primary all these obstructionists. If they won't stand with Dems on healthcare, the (D) beside their names doesn't matter.
Posted by: nyc on October 23, 2009 at 8:55 AM | PERMALINK
If they won't stand with Dems on healthcare, the (D) beside their names doesn't matter. -nyc
If they won't stand with the Dems on healthcare, the (D) beside their names should go away. The party is not obligated to have them as members and it is especially not obligated to pay for their reelection.
If they aren't at least somewhat beholden to the party platform, then allowing them as members of the party cheapens what it stands for and creates the illusion of being unable and unwilling to fight for what was campaigned on.
Posted by: doubtful on October 23, 2009 at 9:45 AM | PERMALINK
Having a state opt-out provision for the public option is the worst of all worlds. There would be a clear red state/blue state division on health care. We've already seen how the leaders of red states are more than willing to abandon their voters in favor of ideology. How, in gods name, is this reform?
Posted by: Randy on October 23, 2009 at 9:45 AM | PERMALINK
"Having a state opt-out provision for the public option is the worst of all worlds. There would be a clear red state/blue state division on health care. We've already seen how the leaders of red states are more than willing to abandon their voters in favor of ideology. How, in gods name, is this reform?"
If the USA waits for the Slave and Mormon States on every issue, we'll never get anything progressive done in this country. Abe Lincoln and Blanche Lincoln were/are both stinkin'. This country needs a divorce.
Posted by: Drew on October 23, 2009 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK
Sadly, my favorite blogger, Steve Benen, continues to treat a public option proposal which includes a state opt-out compromise as a near equivalent to a robust public option. That Steve is quite comfortable with an opt-out compromise is clear--he's even referring to such a compromise simply as "a bill with the public option".
I'm really disappointed that Steve hasn't even bothered to acknowledge arguments against an opt-out compromise that are being made in the comments section of his blog and throughout the blogosphere. It's as if opponents of the opt-out approach don't exist. I sort of feel like I did during the lead up to the Iraq war—invisible.
Posted by: Chris on October 23, 2009 at 10:38 AM | PERMALINK
And Drew @10:35 makes my case for me. The opt-out compromise is a big "fuck you" to red state progressives who contributed money, wrote letters, made telephone calls, canvassed, caucused, and voted to elect a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President. The 50 state strategy is dead.
Glad we could help you out Drew. If an opt-out compromise passes, don't look for it in the future.
Posted by: Chris on October 23, 2009 at 10:42 AM | PERMALINK
NOTE TO ALL DEM SENS. Many of us worked pretty damned hard to get D's elected last year, and some of you owe your sorry asses to that, and to someone, hmm... what is his name -- hmm - oh, right. Obama. SO, quite dicking around. NO VOTES for filibuster, and get to 51 for health care. And, get all the damned appropriations bills to the vote and to the president's signature [every damn one of the bills were voted out of committee by 30-0 or 29-1!!!], AND get to a real climate bill. THen, leave town happy. Until such time, I will continue to hang up on any call from the DSCC, etc.....
Posted by: bigwisc on October 23, 2009 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK
The red state progressives are fools if they think electing a Democrat is the same as electing a progressive. We've seen in issue after issue that Slave State Democrats and Mormon State Democrats are Blue Dogs...unreliable votes for the progressive agenda.
Posted by: Drew on October 23, 2009 at 11:22 AM | PERMALINK
First, there's nothing progressive about a public option with a an opt-out compromise. It's a swing state compromise for the benefit of conserva-Dems and, they hoped, some Republicans.
Second, anybody who thinks that the assistance of red state Democratic voters only came by way of electing Blue Dog Dems from their districts didn't pay much attention in the last election. For many, if not most, red state progressive activists, myself included, the financial contributions made, letters written, telephone calls made, neighborhoods canvassed were for the benefit of out-of-state candidates and the presidential campaign (yes, we got in our cars, and drove to other states). Not to mention the fact that our votes, although we couldn't deliver the electoral colleges in our states, helped give Obama the mandate he needed to help get the job done.
Drew continues to prove my point. The opt-out compromise is the return of the HRC/Mark Penn/Terry McCullough swing state strategy (notice the lack of enthusiasm among Virginia Dems when Deeds indicated that he'd probably opt-out if given the option).
Posted by: Chris on October 23, 2009 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK
> opt out
Are there many 'red states' where you'd actually expect a successful "opt out" to be done and sustained? I'd imagine this is more like an invitation to political suicide for politicians in those states.
They take the insurance company money, they opt out, they lose the next election, they retire to some tropical island, the insurance companies have to buy new politicians every four years in those states --- eventually, the cost of doing business by buying politicians will exceed the cost of doing business with a public option.
No?
Posted by: Hank Roberts on October 23, 2009 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK
Political suicide? Every 2010 Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Georgia is literally running on the notion that Georgians have the right to opt-out of the union (again). Red state Republicans will have no problem opting-out of the public option...with impunity. Anybody who believes otherwise is either ignorant of red state politics or deluding themselves. As much as I'd like to believe otherwise, such a compromise will not turn red states into blue states.
When gambling, one should never risk more than he or she can afford to lose. With an opt-out compromise, that's exactly what Dems would be doing.
Posted by: Chris on October 23, 2009 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
Are there many 'red states' where you'd actually expect a successful "opt out" to be done and sustained? I'd imagine this is more like an invitation to political suicide for politicians in those states.
Never confuse national conservative leaders with conservative state legislatures. Even in battleground states, conservative state legislatures won't have any qualms about opting out of the public option if given a chance. Arizona legislators have already been making this argument before an "opt out" provision was even being discussed. In addition, it doesn't cost much money for the insurance lobby to buy out a state legislature. It's far, far cheaper than a national campaign.
Posted by: Randy on October 23, 2009 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK